CIDRAP Podcast on reopening schools this fall

RockyTopDW said:

I can’t help but think that after the election, whatever the result, the Covid hysteria will die down.  I fear the economic results more than the results of the virus.  We can’t sustain the current plan of indefinitely closing down businesses. I’m doing my part and wearing a mask, but tend to think this is being sensationalized by the media.  

Well, that's easy then. Have the election this week, and let's get it all over with. I, for one, will be much relieved. 

Well, shoot.  People debate of the earth is flat or astronauts really landed on the moon too.

Cut the number in half.  Cut it in half again.  Take whatever discount you want off, it’s still too high.

You see, this is the problem, we argue about it and it gets worse.  We split hairs and we can’t take a coordinated and disciplined approach.  If we had been able to do that back in, say March, April, even May.  We wouldn’t be listening to vague arguments about the repercussions being much riskier.  At some point we have to take our medicine, suck it up. The economy is likely already going to be f’d for a while, at least here in the US.

I'll share my family's view on reopening schools and how we are thinking about it in the hopes it will bring this thread more on topic.

We both work and have a 4yo son who has been home with us since early March.

His preschool is open and has been for most of July.

He's scheduled to attend another preschool beginning in August but they are closed and remaining closed for the foreseeable future. We're meeting with them in a town hall format later this week.

What has made this situation tenable for us has been a policy at my work that allows me to work part time and to continue with full pay. That is extremely generous of my employer and will forever hold them in my highest esteem.

My wife's firm is similarly generous but not quite so formalized about their policy.

We each work ~5 hours per day and take shifts with our 4yo. I take the morning shift, we eat lunch together as a family, and my wife watches him in the afternoon.

It has been a really wonderful experience to spend this much time with him.  We've been hiking, biking, and staying socially distanced. He wears a mask as best he can and we have gotten into a sort of routine that seems sustainable.

Looming in our minds now are the educational challenges. At first, we were focused solely on health and isolation. As this has worn on, we have adapted and learned. We feel ill-equipped to teach a young child and and worried about the long term effects of social isolation and lack of structured education and play.

Still, on balance, our plan is to continue on at home. If there are other parents in a similar situation, I'd love to hear how you have been thinking about balancing work with shelter in place and involuntary home schooling. We are trying many things but as yet have no real handle on what we will do for the coming months for our son's education and learning.

RockyTopDW said:

The death count is 150,000.  The population of this country is a little over 320 million. There is debate that the death count is inaccurate.  Multiple sources online have stated that someone with Covid that dies of non-Covid reasons is still considered a Covid death.  I hope this isn’t true.  If it is, how can realistic data be attained?  If it is accurate & true, we have less than .001% chance of dying.  It’s easy to say someone else should shut down their business to stop the spread, when you’re not directly affected. The repercussions of that are far riskier than the virus. 

Source(s)? 

What's the big deal, I'm a shopaholic and visit big box stores 5 days a week, 7 hours at a time 

nolaegghead said:

Some good observations here.  Also there is some evidence of tin foil hat wearing fools.

Me thinks you should go back and muddle around with a bunch of your friends in your shop or on your fishing boat or wherever during an outbreak, all the while scolding others online in a drunken stupor about their behavior because you are scared for your spouse that works in the medical community. 

JohnInCarolina said:

By the way, you don’t calculate risk of death by taking the percentage of the *total population* who have died.  You need to use the number of people *infected* in the denominator.  

Telll me again just how many have been infected? Is it ten million more than the official count? Is it 100 million more than the official count? Is it an accurate count? I noticed that none of the usual suspects answers any of the questions posed with the exception of where Johns kids go to school, but rather they just call you stupid. Well done. 

I think Pete said he had Covid a few months back but never got tested.  Not sure how to count that.

caliking said:

RockyTopDW said:

The death count is 150,000.  The population of this country is a little over 320 million. There is debate that the death count is inaccurate.  Multiple sources online have stated that someone with Covid that dies of non-Covid reasons is still considered a Covid death.  I hope this isn’t true.  If it is, how can realistic data be attained?  If it is accurate & true, we have less than .001% chance of dying.  It’s easy to say someone else should shut down their business to stop the spread, when you’re not directly affected. The repercussions of that are far riskier than the virus. 

Source(s)? 

The death count is indeed inaccurate. It’s underreported, i.e more have died of COVID than has been reported. E.g. deaths occurring at home are often missed in county/state numbers. 

But, you’re right that you have an infinitesimal risk of dying. Feel free to test that out, and get back to us. 

I assume you won’t  expect any healthcare, etc. if you or yours fall ill? Since the COVID business is a hoax, right? 

Ok - a lot of respect for you caliking- but you can’t call BS on some one asking for a source and then make a claim on deaths without a source of your own.  Maybe you got one.

JohnInCarolina said:

FarmingPhD said:

caliking said:

RockyTopDW said:

The death count is 150,000.  The population of this country is a little over 320 million. There is debate that the death count is inaccurate.  Multiple sources online have stated that someone with Covid that dies of non-Covid reasons is still considered a Covid death.  I hope this isn’t true.  If it is, how can realistic data be attained?  If it is accurate & true, we have less than .001% chance of dying.  It’s easy to say someone else should shut down their business to stop the spread, when you’re not directly affected. The repercussions of that are far riskier than the virus. 

Source(s)? 

The death count is indeed inaccurate. It’s underreported, i.e more have died of COVID than has been reported. E.g. deaths occurring at home are often missed in county/state numbers. 

But, you’re right that you have an infinitesimal risk of dying. Feel free to test that out, and get back to us. 

I assume you won’t  expect any healthcare, etc. if you or yours fall ill? Since the COVID business is a hoax, right? 

Ok - a lot of respect for you caliking- but you can’t call BS on some one asking for a source and then make a claim on deaths without a source of your own.  Maybe you got one.

I agree the numbers are messed up, So let’s be honest with each other and say none of Us knows the answer.   

I think we can all agree that this is a bad situation with no one right answer, as many have stated. Individual situations need different approaches, not even going to call them solutions because I don’t personally think there is a solution as I typically think a solution is a ~perfect answer.

I think I’m going to order Olsterholm’s book Deadliest Enemy this week and see if I can get read over the next month.

Here's a decent article that explains the undercounting:

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/01/official-us-coronavirus-death-toll-is-a-substantial-undercount-of-actual-tally-new-yale-study-finds.html

In principle I agree with you - nobody knows the "true number" of deaths, down to for example +- 1 person.  But we can make a very good estimate based on the data we have, certainly one that is accurate enough to inform policy decisions.  

The problem is the “Covid bounty” these coroners and morgues are getting per body on the death tolls. History/Science has proven that people, if rewarded (correctly or incorrectly) will continue to repeat the behavior. Even if they have to lie to get that result. Ring the bell Pavlov. The science is garbage at best on the math. 

pgprescott said:

JohnInCarolina said:

pgprescott said:

JohnInCarolina said:

By the way, you don’t calculate risk of death by taking the percentage of the *total population* who have died.  You need to use the number of people *infected* in the denominator.  

Telll me again just how many have been infected? Is it ten million more than the official count? Is it 100 million more than the official count? Is it an accurate count? I noticed that none of the usual suspects answers any of the questions posed with the exception of where Johns kids go to school, but rather they just call you stupid. Well done. 

Tell me again why anyone here should engage you in good faith?  You didn’t come in here to discuss the podcast - you dismissed it as drivel, without even listening to it!  You’re just in here throwing rocks, and the sad thing is you have no idea how much you’re embarrassing yourself in the process.

Good day, sir.

You once again don’t answer any tough questions because either the answers embarrass you or you realize they don’t fit your perspective. That’s all.

 I continue to be impressed by the certainty with which the experts have and continue to be catastrophically wrong though. equally impressed at the willingness for people to follow the advice of said experts without any simple critical thought. 

Good day to you also, Sir!!😂

I think the problem is that some people expect certainty from predictions.  If we had a pandemic every few years, I could see how we could maybe expect to be better at this.   But they’re very rare and this is a new to us virus, these are complex biological systems.  So, I don’t think it’s as much about being right vs wrong, it’s about risk management and not being too wrong in the wrong direction (eg bad outcomes).  It also means that you have to continuously assess and adjust your strategy.

As with most things, we take measured risks but we try to err on the side of safety.  

Lit said:

Legume said:

pgprescott said:

JohnInCarolina said:

pgprescott said:

JohnInCarolina said:

By the way, you don’t calculate risk of death by taking the percentage of the *total population* who have died.  You need to use the number of people *infected* in the denominator.  

Telll me again just how many have been infected? Is it ten million more than the official count? Is it 100 million more than the official count? Is it an accurate count? I noticed that none of the usual suspects answers any of the questions posed with the exception of where Johns kids go to school, but rather they just call you stupid. Well done. 

Tell me again why anyone here should engage you in good faith?  You didn’t come in here to discuss the podcast - you dismissed it as drivel, without even listening to it!  You’re just in here throwing rocks, and the sad thing is you have no idea how much you’re embarrassing yourself in the process.

Good day, sir.

You once again don’t answer any tough questions because either the answers embarrass you or you realize they don’t fit your perspective. That’s all.

 I continue to be impressed by the certainty with which the experts have and continue to be catastrophically wrong though. equally impressed at the willingness for people to follow the advice of said experts without any simple critical thought. 

Good day to you also, Sir!!😂

I think the problem is that some people expect certainty from predictions.  If we had a pandemic every few years, I could see how we could maybe expect to be better at this.   But they’re very rare and this is a new to us virus, these are complex biological systems.  So, I don’t think it’s as much about being right vs wrong, it’s about risk management and not being too wrong in the wrong direction (eg bad outcomes).  It also means that you have to continuously assess and adjust your strategy.

As with most things, we take measured risks but we try to err on the side of safety.  

Why is that so unacceptable here?

Economy?  If we had taken a conservative, disciplined approach, school and bar reopening may not have been the hot topic it is today.  But here we are.  Arguing about counting and taking the bait when the president says our scientists have been wrong about some things, clearly not understanding the situation.

No its all Trumps fault he should have known exactly what to do 

Not at all @Lit.  There is an abundance of people running around saying that wearing masks and closing bars are infringing on their constitutional rights.