CIDRAP Podcast on reopening schools this fall

pgprescott · July 2020

JohnInCarolina said:

Interesting that Canada is expecting to open the schools in the fall. Of course, their daily case counts and death totals are a fraction of ours. I wonder what they got so right that we got so wrong?

Lot less people and lots of space maybe? Have you ever ventured to examine the precious data and maybe separate the densely populated areas from the rural areas? Maybe they didn’t send sick elderly people back to the nursing homes? Maybe they count actual deaths that can be attributed to the virus in lieu of every death that can heaped on regardless of the extenuating circumstances. I’m not sure, it’s a real puzzle.

pgprescott · July 2020

YukonRon said:

Maybe, just maybe I am looking at the schooling issue in the wrong light.

Around here, we close school for the protection of our children, educators and staff to predictions of bad weather.

However, with a deadly virus, 150,000 lives lost thus far, we decide to experiment with the lives of our children, educators and staff.

Infections are spreading exponentially. Anyone want to predict what is going to happen?

We have pretty good evidence and it suggest the risk is extremely low. For the kids it’s waaay lower than the regular seasonal flu. For the staff, the risk of transmission from child to adult is non existent. So we are talking about just the adult to adult transmission. Seems manageable to me. No greater than any other part of life. Far less than a trip to a big box store. But then again, I’m not deranged and hysterically frightened.

dmchicago · July 2020

pgprescott said:

YukonRon said:

Maybe, just maybe I am looking at the schooling issue in the wrong light.

Around here, we close school for the protection of our children, educators and staff to predictions of bad weather.

However, with a deadly virus, 150,000 lives lost thus far, we decide to experiment with the lives of our children, educators and staff.

Infections are spreading exponentially. Anyone want to predict what is going to happen?

We have pretty good evidence and it suggest the risk is extremely low. For the kids it’s waaay lower than the regular seasonal flu. For the staff, the risk of transmission from child to adult is non existent. So we are talking about just the adult to adult transmission. Seems manageable to me. No greater than any other part of life. Far less than a trip to a big box store. But then again, I’m not deranged and hysterically frightened.

One outa two ain't bad!

JohnInCarolina · July 2020

pgprescott said:

JohnInCarolina said:

Interesting that Canada is expecting to open the schools in the fall. Of course, their daily case counts and death totals are a fraction of ours. I wonder what they got so right that we got so wrong?

Lot less people and lots of space maybe? Have you ever ventured to examine the precious data and maybe separate the densely populated areas from the rural areas? Maybe they didn’t send sick elderly people back to the nursing homes? Maybe they count actual deaths that can be attributed to the virus in lieu of every death that can heaped on regardless of the extenuating circumstances. I’m not sure, it’s a real puzzle.

What I wrote applies on a *per capita* basis. As for the rest, well, you might want to give your daily dose of Tucker Carlson and Sean Hannity a rest there, bud.

YukonRon · July 2020

JohnInCarolina said:

Interesting that Canada is expecting to open their schools in the fall. Of course, their daily case counts and death totals are a fraction of ours. I wonder what they got so right that we got so wrong?

Thinking the term "volumes" might be used here.

pgprescott · July 2020

JohnInCarolina said:

pgprescott said:

JohnInCarolina said:

Interesting that Canada is expecting to open the schools in the fall. Of course, their daily case counts and death totals are a fraction of ours. I wonder what they got so right that we got so wrong?

Lot less people and lots of space maybe? Have you ever ventured to examine the precious data and maybe separate the densely populated areas from the rural areas? Maybe they didn’t send sick elderly people back to the nursing homes? Maybe they count actual deaths that can be attributed to the virus in lieu of every death that can heaped on regardless of the extenuating circumstances. I’m not sure, it’s a real puzzle.

What I wrote applies on a *per capita* basis. As for the rest, well, you might want to give your daily dose of Tucker Carlson and Sean Hannity a rest there, bud.

Your kids staying home in perpetuity? Stay home until vaccine? Or are your sending them to school?

pgprescott · July 2020

JohnInCarolina said:

pgprescott said:

JohnInCarolina said:

Interesting that Canada is expecting to open the schools in the fall. Of course, their daily case counts and death totals are a fraction of ours. I wonder what they got so right that we got so wrong?

Lot less people and lots of space maybe? Have you ever ventured to examine the precious data and maybe separate the densely populated areas from the rural areas? Maybe they didn’t send sick elderly people back to the nursing homes? Maybe they count actual deaths that can be attributed to the virus in lieu of every death that can heaped on regardless of the extenuating circumstances. I’m not sure, it’s a real puzzle.

What I wrote applies on a *per capita* basis. As for the rest, well, you might want to give your daily dose of Tucker Carlson and Sean Hannity a rest there, bud.

Of course. It stands to reason densely populated areas will experience higher rates, not just higher totals. Duh! It’s a virus!

pgprescott · July 2020

dmchicago said:

pgprescott said:

YukonRon said:

Maybe, just maybe I am looking at the schooling issue in the wrong light.

Around here, we close school for the protection of our children, educators and staff to predictions of bad weather.

However, with a deadly virus, 150,000 lives lost thus far, we decide to experiment with the lives of our children, educators and staff.

Infections are spreading exponentially. Anyone want to predict what is going to happen?

We have pretty good evidence and it suggest the risk is extremely low. For the kids it’s waaay lower than the regular seasonal flu. For the staff, the risk of transmission from child to adult is non existent. So we are talking about just the adult to adult transmission. Seems manageable to me. No greater than any other part of life. Far less than a trip to a big box store. But then again, I’m not deranged and hysterically frightened.
One outa two ain't bad!

Wait a minute! You mean me or Ron? 🤣

pgprescott · July 2020

hey, like I said, I don’t have to worry about it. Good luck. I’m sure it’ll work out fine for you.

YukonRon · July 2020

Derangend and hysterically frightened?

Seriously. Your total response boiled down to name calling.

Classy as always.

Stay safe and stay well to you and your family.

SciAggie · July 2020

As has been stated this is a charged issue at the moment. I think we can all agree on a few things. Students will get a better education with face to face interaction. Parents need their children in school so that they can work. Online only education is not a good model for K-12 education.
I think we can also agree that parents are sending the most precious part of their lives to school. That needs to be respected and every parent wants and deserves what's best for their child.

So how do we do all this?

This is a newly emerged pathogen and there is limited data on how it affects our youth. We can make comparisons to similar viruses, but decisions are best made with data about this one. I agree with Dr. Osterholm about the way we view risks to our youth - it isn't a ratio, it's a numerator. When a parent thinks about their child they only think of the numerator. That's how loving parents react.

Evidence seems to suggest that elementary and middle school students contract and transmit COVID less than any other segment of society. That's good news. It seems that education can be resumed with limited modifications and disruptions.

High school students appear the contract and transmit the virus, but less so than the population in general. I disagree that the risk of transmission from student to adult is non existent. I do believe it is a manageable risk. The data seems clear that distancing reduces risk and transmission. Masks also seem to clearly have an effect. With older students that are more mature reasonable precautions are possible. We'll never achieve zero risk, but students and staff were not at zero risk before the pandemic.

In our particular district many of our policies are mandated by the state. We are not always allowed to pivot and adapt the way we would like to. So much of the anger and frustration I see in parents at the local level is misplaced. That doesn't mean that each and every school doesn't deserve some anger. You want to hear it? Yes, there are some teachers that "took a vacation"in the spring. Some did it because they were lazy and some did it because they didn't have the knowledge and skills to adapt. Some teachers worked long hours and delivered education the best way possible given short notice and restrictive guidelines. I think it's a good thing that a light has been shined on some of what's broken in education. Now we have a chance to fix it.

All I can say is that I and other teachers in my district want to serve our students and provide a quality education. We want to keep YOUR children as safe a possible and protect ourselves as well as possible. I don't give a flip about what someone "thinks". I will follow guidelines and protocols that are laid out by professionals that understand infectious disease and transmission. I will also try to provide an authentic educational experience. Nobody will look back on their days from school 20 years from now and say, "Man, do remember all those great worksheets we did?" No employee at a company will have a problem and say, "Oh, wait - I did a worksheet about this once!" I hear the anger some of you have. I can only tell you that's not a universal reality.

TL;DR - The situation sucks and everybody is angry.

Dondgc · July 2020

SciAggie said:

TL;DR - The situation sucks and everybody is angry.

So true.

dmourati · July 2020

JohnInCarolina said:

Interesting that Canada is expecting to open their schools in the fall. Of course, their daily case counts and death totals are a fraction of ours. I wonder what they got so right that we got so wrong?

About 1/9th the population density for starters.

Canada: 4/km^2
US: 35/km^2

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/countries-by-density

That and a functioning federal government.

Botch · July 2020

YukonRon said:
Around here, we close school for the protection of our children, educators and staff to predictions of bad weather.

However, with a deadly virus, 150,000 lives lost thus far, we decide to experiment with the lives of our children, educators and staff.

Infections are spreading exponentially. Anyone want to predict what is going to happen?

See Nola's link, above.

EDIT: Er, previous page.

EDIT 2: Especially you, Pete.

Botch · July 2020

dmourati said:

JohnInCarolina said:

Interesting that Canada is expecting to open their schools in the fall. Of course, their daily case counts and death totals are a fraction of ours. I wonder what they got so right that we got so wrong?

About 1/9th the population density for starters.

Canada: 4/km^2
US: 35/km^2

That and a functioning federal government.

The link didn't work for me, but thanks for quoting the bolded portion.

That's a misleading portrayal. Most of the population in Canada is concentrated towards the south, closer to the US border. I've been to both Toronto and Winnipeg, and they look just like a large, and a medium, city in the US, respectively (Montreal was on my bucket list, for this year, but the pandemic has modded my plans

).

I will agree 100% with your final statement, sadly.

JohnInCarolina · July 2020

pgprescott said:

JohnInCarolina said:

pgprescott said:

JohnInCarolina said:

Interesting that Canada is expecting to open the schools in the fall. Of course, their daily case counts and death totals are a fraction of ours. I wonder what they got so right that we got so wrong?

Lot less people and lots of space maybe? Have you ever ventured to examine the precious data and maybe separate the densely populated areas from the rural areas? Maybe they didn’t send sick elderly people back to the nursing homes? Maybe they count actual deaths that can be attributed to the virus in lieu of every death that can heaped on regardless of the extenuating circumstances. I’m not sure, it’s a real puzzle.

What I wrote applies on a *per capita* basis. As for the rest, well, you might want to give your daily dose of Tucker Carlson and Sean Hannity a rest there, bud.

Your kids staying home in perpetuity? Stay home until vaccine? Or are your sending them to school?

That is what the pros would call a non sequitur.

But if you must know, Durham has closed public schools indefinitely.

JohnInCarolina · July 2020

dmourati said:

JohnInCarolina said:

Interesting that Canada is expecting to open their schools in the fall. Of course, their daily case counts and death totals are a fraction of ours. I wonder what they got so right that we got so wrong?

About 1/9th the population density for starters.

Canada: 4/km^2
US: 35/km^2

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/countries-by-density

That and a functioning federal government.

You can compare the statistics in their major metropolitan areas as well. There are plenty of large cities in Canada.

JohnInCarolina · July 2020

pgprescott said:

JohnInCarolina said:

pgprescott said:

JohnInCarolina said:

Interesting that Canada is expecting to open the schools in the fall. Of course, their daily case counts and death totals are a fraction of ours. I wonder what they got so right that we got so wrong?

Lot less people and lots of space maybe? Have you ever ventured to examine the precious data and maybe separate the densely populated areas from the rural areas? Maybe they didn’t send sick elderly people back to the nursing homes? Maybe they count actual deaths that can be attributed to the virus in lieu of every death that can heaped on regardless of the extenuating circumstances. I’m not sure, it’s a real puzzle.

What I wrote applies on a *per capita* basis. As for the rest, well, you might want to give your daily dose of Tucker Carlson and Sean Hannity a rest there, bud.

Of course. It stands to reason densely populated areas will experience higher rates, not just higher totals. Duh! It’s a virus!

Duh! indeed.

lousubcap · July 2020

Well, so much for dissemination of reasoned perspective from an "expert." Never mind transmission of information upon which to help bound your personal thoughts and perhaps pursue additional insights.
Let's just devolve into a full-up pi$$ing contest. And thus the thread mirrors the state of the union. Frigging sad. The collective "we" could do much better if not so hide-bound, FWIW-
Off-soap box.

caliking · July 2020

pgprescott said:

caliking said:

pgprescott said:

caliking said:

pgprescott said:

JohnInCarolina said:

pgprescott said:

JohnInCarolina said:

pgprescott said:

what about the millions of kids that have been in daycare facilities for months now as they have been deemed essential? Should they all go home? Just want them to be safe of course. How have they not all been in ICU by now? Something just doesn’t add up but I can’t put my finger on it. Huh?

In the podcast Osterholm actually talks about how the little kids haven't been the engine of infection we'd normally expect during say a typical influenza season. Did you listen to it?

It wasn’t a serious question John. The serious question is why one would expect school environment to be any different? Does the virus spread from child to adult? Did he point out that the mortality for children is FAR greater with normal influenza? Have the daycare workers been rushed to the ICU? Fear is powerful. Are all the teachers currently quarantined at home? Have they all been diligent in their protocols? If not, why are they not All sick already? What is the actual number of cases in US? Not just the ones confirmed by testing. I’m just very glad my kids are through school. We are totally screwing them.

Well, I would suggest maybe giving the podcast a listen.

Nah. Drivel.

simple minds?

Go ahead and address the questions. All you guys do is fear monger and cherry pick.

Do the children infect the adults?

Is there a single documented case?

Has there been serious outbreaks at the child care facilities that are all over the place and far less regulated?

it’s real easy to throw out a general statement like “compromise the staff” which is meaningless and vague. Intentionally so in believe. These people have been “compromised” for six months now.

It’s sad. The damage done by the fear mongering is monumental. It’s infuriating and I’m not even affected by it at all. I can’t imagine what it’s like to be in the muck.

Wish you and your family all the best. It says all I need to hear that you personally are sending your child to his school. End of story.

You exemplify why we continue to stumble about trying to get a handle on this.

My choice to send my kid to school, is based on critical review of available data. I've seen a few memes and FB posts purporting to be that, but a little voice told me look beyond those sources. It may have been nola, but I dunno.

Typical. Nothing.

Well, I accept your critical review and think we all should follow your carefully considered example. I just hope your decision doesn’t put the staff at risk. I’d hate to have you compromise the staff by sending your child to school. I’m sure you agree, you said as much earlier.

I also hope that our choice doesn't put anyone else at increased risk.

And I also wish reading comprehension was what it used to be.

Hans61 · July 2020

JohnInCarolina said:

Interesting that Canada is expecting to open their schools in the fall. Of course, their daily case counts and death totals are a fraction of ours. I wonder what they got so right that we got so wrong?

pgprescott · July 2020

lousubcap said:

Well, so much for dissemination of reasoned perspective from an "expert." Never mind transmission of information upon which to help bound your personal thoughts and perhaps pursue additional insights.
Let's just devolve into a full-up pi$$ing contest. And thus the thread mirrors the state of the union. Frigging sad. The collective "we" could do much better if not so hide-bound, FWIW-
Off-soap box.

Problem being that all the “experts” have recanted and/or contradicted themselves repeatedly for months and months. It is not unreasonable to question their veracity. I am amused by the certainty at which they have delivered their drivel. Also amazed when they offer no explanation for a full course change in direction. It’s unbelievable.

pgprescott · July 2020

YukonRon said:

Derangend and hysterically frightened?

Seriously. Your total response boiled down to name calling.

Classy as always.

Stay safe and stay well to you and your family.

Uh, no.

But I would expect you to overlook everything but what you wish to confront. That’s the “cherry picking” I eluded to earlier.

Be well also.

pgprescott · July 2020

JohnInCarolina said:

pgprescott said:

JohnInCarolina said:

pgprescott said:

JohnInCarolina said:

Interesting that Canada is expecting to open the schools in the fall. Of course, their daily case counts and death totals are a fraction of ours. I wonder what they got so right that we got so wrong?

Lot less people and lots of space maybe? Have you ever ventured to examine the precious data and maybe separate the densely populated areas from the rural areas? Maybe they didn’t send sick elderly people back to the nursing homes? Maybe they count actual deaths that can be attributed to the virus in lieu of every death that can heaped on regardless of the extenuating circumstances. I’m not sure, it’s a real puzzle.

What I wrote applies on a *per capita* basis. As for the rest, well, you might want to give your daily dose of Tucker Carlson and Sean Hannity a rest there, bud.

Your kids staying home in perpetuity? Stay home until vaccine? Or are your sending them to school?

That is what the pros would call a non sequitur.

But if you must know, Durham has closed public schools indefinitely.

Do your kids go to the public schools?

JohnInCarolina · July 2020

pgprescott said:

JohnInCarolina said:

pgprescott said:

JohnInCarolina said:

pgprescott said:

JohnInCarolina said:

Interesting that Canada is expecting to open the schools in the fall. Of course, their daily case counts and death totals are a fraction of ours. I wonder what they got so right that we got so wrong?

Lot less people and lots of space maybe? Have you ever ventured to examine the precious data and maybe separate the densely populated areas from the rural areas? Maybe they didn’t send sick elderly people back to the nursing homes? Maybe they count actual deaths that can be attributed to the virus in lieu of every death that can heaped on regardless of the extenuating circumstances. I’m not sure, it’s a real puzzle.

What I wrote applies on a *per capita* basis. As for the rest, well, you might want to give your daily dose of Tucker Carlson and Sean Hannity a rest there, bud.

Your kids staying home in perpetuity? Stay home until vaccine? Or are your sending them to school?

That is what the pros would call a non sequitur.

But if you must know, Durham has closed public schools indefinitely.

Do your kids go to the public schools?

Yes they do, Pete. My wife and I happen to believe in them. We’re old school that way I guess. I suppose it might have something to do with us both having attended them ourselves.

Botch · July 2020

There is no stronger argument for an "Ignore" button than @pgprescott
's last eight posts or so.

Please, Mr. Buffalo?

caliking · July 2020

JohnInCarolina said:

pgprescott said:

JohnInCarolina said:

pgprescott said:

JohnInCarolina said:

pgprescott said:

JohnInCarolina said:

Interesting that Canada is expecting to open the schools in the fall. Of course, their daily case counts and death totals are a fraction of ours. I wonder what they got so right that we got so wrong?

Lot less people and lots of space maybe? Have you ever ventured to examine the precious data and maybe separate the densely populated areas from the rural areas? Maybe they didn’t send sick elderly people back to the nursing homes? Maybe they count actual deaths that can be attributed to the virus in lieu of every death that can heaped on regardless of the extenuating circumstances. I’m not sure, it’s a real puzzle.

What I wrote applies on a *per capita* basis. As for the rest, well, you might want to give your daily dose of Tucker Carlson and Sean Hannity a rest there, bud.

Your kids staying home in perpetuity? Stay home until vaccine? Or are your sending them to school?

That is what the pros would call a non sequitur.

But if you must know, Durham has closed public schools indefinitely.

Do your kids go to the public schools?

Yes they do, Pete. My wife and I happen to believe in them. We’re old school that way I guess. I suppose it might have something to do with us both having attended them ourselves.

Is *crickets* spelled with one t or two?

The whole battle of the wits vs. the unarmed thing. Pity eventually overwhelms me, and I lose stamina.

Legume · July 2020

The greatest barrier against all wisdom, the stronghold against knowledge itself, is the single thought, in ones mind, that they already have it all figured out.

I read that on a napkin or something recently.

RockyTopDW · July 2020

I can’t help but think that after the election, whatever the result, the Covid hysteria will die down. I fear the economic results more than the results of the virus. We can’t sustain the current plan of indefinitely closing down businesses. I’m doing my part and wearing a mask, but tend to think this is being sensationalized by the media.

Legume · July 2020

RockyTopDW said:

I can’t help but think that after the election, whatever the result, the Covid hysteria will die down. I fear the economic results more than the results of the virus. We can’t sustain the current plan of indefinitely closing down businesses. I’m doing my part and wearing a mask, but tend to think this is being sensationalized by the media.

What’s the death count now?

CIDRAP Podcast on reopening schools this fall

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