YukonRon said:

Battleborn said:

YukonRon said:

Samuel Clements once said "There are 3 kinds of lies; Lies, Dămned Lies and statistics.

The numbers I am following are cases that have been closed, either by a patient's death, or release due to no longer carrying the virus. That number is 85% surviving, 15% dead.

That number can, and will change, drastically the longer this virus is around.

But for my money, right now, that is a statistic I choose to watch more than cases reported and updated deaths.

Currently 96% of all the cases in progress are listed as moderate...with only 4% critical, or likely to die. Those numbers change over night and in fact, the CDC and the WHO as well as the NIH with a likelyhood of 25% of the moderate cases active currently to go ctitical....and 80% of those people dying due to underlying health issues, age and other factors such as blood type and whether they are male or female.

I dunno. I hope they are wrong. Real data or not, it is being tracked.

Still, the 15% mortality rate in those numbers are skewed. Nobody is getting tested. So far in the state of Nevada, the tests are going to those in close contact with other positive tests. It is nearly impossible for new tests to be done. A lady my wife works with began feeling sick around 10 days ago. She just got a test today. She was told her results would be in in 5-7 days. Luckily she self quarantined when she began feeling sick. No telling how many people she gave it to prior.

The state just got clearance to begin producing testing methods outside of the FDA. Hopefully more tests can be done. 

I get your point. In my areas of responsibilities, I also do work for the healthcare industry, we help build things like antimicrobial coatings, sanitary cleaning chemicals, and other items nobody thinks about until these events occur.

We look at a couple of indicators: 

Active cases, the extent of the infected population and degree (mild vs. serious or critical)

Closed cases the actual number of recoveries vs deaths in a dynamic pandemic such as Corovid19.

Call the numbers skewed all you want but the current measured relationship of recovery versus death, is currently 85% vs. 15%.....globally. We are an international company. We have to take those numbers into account.

We understand the potential population infected is likely 3-4x more (a very conservative number) but that is an active situation. 

The numbers are real, as was stated initially, these are CLOSED case comparisons, ACTIVE cases are measured separately. As they recover, or die they are added to the closed cases.

These are global numbers thus far, and yes due to the lack of leadership and action taken, we are behind the curve in the USA, so these numbers will greatly impact the ACTIVE cases, and eventually the CLOSED cases as well.

These are numbers posted. There are ACTIVE cases ongoing, the numbers you have commented on are COMPLETED cases of those recovered vs those who passed. That number will be impacted hopefully with a more forward action plan.

These numbers are constantly changing, and the total dead from this virus will surpass 20,000 today, globally.

We are well past "what should have been done" ....we are now into only... "what can be done."

Not a great way to fight a virus of this magnitude.

nolaegghead said:

https://www.nola.com/news/coronavirus/article_0a01ee00-6e29-11ea-9f1a-874949baed92.html

saluki2007 said:

JohnInCarolina said:

saluki2007 said:

JohnInCarolina said:

Battleborn said:

YukonRon said:

Battleborn said:

YukonRon said:

Samuel Clements once said "There are 3 kinds of lies; Lies, Dămned Lies and statistics.

The numbers I am following are cases that have been closed, either by a patient's death, or release due to no longer carrying the virus. That number is 85% surviving, 15% dead.

That number can, and will change, drastically the longer this virus is around.

But for my money, right now, that is a statistic I choose to watch more than cases reported and updated deaths.

Currently 96% of all the cases in progress are listed as moderate...with only 4% critical, or likely to die. Those numbers change over night and in fact, the CDC and the WHO as well as the NIH with a likelyhood of 25% of the moderate cases active currently to go ctitical....and 80% of those people dying due to underlying health issues, age and other factors such as blood type and whether they are male or female.

I dunno. I hope they are wrong. Real data or not, it is being tracked.

Still, the 15% mortality rate in those numbers are skewed. Nobody is getting tested. So far in the state of Nevada, the tests are going to those in close contact with other positive tests. It is nearly impossible for new tests to be done. A lady my wife works with began feeling sick around 10 days ago. She just got a test today. She was told her results would be in in 5-7 days. Luckily she self quarantined when she began feeling sick. No telling how many people she gave it to prior.

The state just got clearance to begin producing testing methods outside of the FDA. Hopefully more tests can be done. 

I get your point. In my areas of responsibilities, I also do work for the healthcare industry, we help build things like antimicrobial coatings, sanitary cleaning chemicals, and other items nobody thinks about until these events occur.

We look at a couple of indicators: 

Active cases, the extent of the infected population and degree (mild vs. serious or critical)

Closed cases the actual number of recoveries vs deaths in a dynamic pandemic such as Corovid19.

Call the numbers skewed all you want but the current measured relationship of recovery versus death, is currently 85% vs. 15%.....globally. We are an international company. We have to take those numbers into account.

We understand the potential population infected is likely 3-4x more (a very conservative number) but that is an active situation. 

The numbers are real, as was stated initially, these are CLOSED case comparisons, ACTIVE cases are measured separately. As they recover, or die they are added to the closed cases.

These are global numbers thus far, and yes due to the lack of leadership and action taken, we are behind the curve in the USA, so these numbers will greatly impact the ACTIVE cases, and eventually the CLOSED cases as well.

These are numbers posted. There are ACTIVE cases ongoing, the numbers you have commented on are COMPLETED cases of those recovered vs those who passed. That number will be impacted hopefully with a more forward action plan.

These numbers are constantly changing, and the total dead from this virus will surpass 20,000 today, globally.

We are well past "what should have been done" ....we are now into only... "what can be done."

Not a great way to fight a virus of this magnitude.

In no way was I disputing or trying to minimize your numbers, I personally was just saying that total number morality is much lower than 15%. I defer the math and statistics to people much smarter, like you, than myself. 

15% is likely way off.  The best estimates I have seen have it around 1% - with the very large caveat that this is under good conditions.  Still ten times worse than the standard flu, but nowhere near 15%.  

But as I have made pains to point out many times before, the mortality rate is the wrong thing to focus on here.  Really the problem we are facing is the hospitalization rate juxtaposed with the capacity of our critical care facilities.  Because if you start to overwhelm the hospitals, that becomes the point where the mortality rate starts to rise dramatically.  This is why those of us with training in math and biology were freaking out more than a month ago.  

All you needed to know is how grossly understaffed and unprepared our hospitals are.  You don't have to have math or biology training to know that the people who are running the hospitals have business backgrounds and not healthcare backgrounds.

I don't have any expertise in that space, but I do think an issue we have is that so many hospitals are run fairly close to capacity.  Probably the business of health care in the US is a big factor there, I'm not sure. 

But exponential growth of a contagion in a naive population has some fairly dire implications that largely swamp any level of preparedness of hospitals.  That is the point.  More open beds can buy you some time, but eventually even they get overrun.  

I believe this to be true.  I guess all I was trying to say is that a lot of the hospitals are run by people like the cheeto and not Fauci.  So when something like what we are currently experiencing the "heads" are running around not knowing what to do.  They are telling the staff to implement this and that not having the knowledge of what it really means to do those things.

thetrim said:

saluki2007 said:

JohnInCarolina said:

saluki2007 said:

JohnInCarolina said:

Battleborn said:

YukonRon said:

Battleborn said:

YukonRon said:

Samuel Clements once said "There are 3 kinds of lies; Lies, Dămned Lies and statistics.

The numbers I am following are cases that have been closed, either by a patient's death, or release due to no longer carrying the virus. That number is 85% surviving, 15% dead.

That number can, and will change, drastically the longer this virus is around.

But for my money, right now, that is a statistic I choose to watch more than cases reported and updated deaths.

Currently 96% of all the cases in progress are listed as moderate...with only 4% critical, or likely to die. Those numbers change over night and in fact, the CDC and the WHO as well as the NIH with a likelyhood of 25% of the moderate cases active currently to go ctitical....and 80% of those people dying due to underlying health issues, age and other factors such as blood type and whether they are male or female.

I dunno. I hope they are wrong. Real data or not, it is being tracked.

Still, the 15% mortality rate in those numbers are skewed. Nobody is getting tested. So far in the state of Nevada, the tests are going to those in close contact with other positive tests. It is nearly impossible for new tests to be done. A lady my wife works with began feeling sick around 10 days ago. She just got a test today. She was told her results would be in in 5-7 days. Luckily she self quarantined when she began feeling sick. No telling how many people she gave it to prior.

The state just got clearance to begin producing testing methods outside of the FDA. Hopefully more tests can be done. 

I get your point. In my areas of responsibilities, I also do work for the healthcare industry, we help build things like antimicrobial coatings, sanitary cleaning chemicals, and other items nobody thinks about until these events occur.

We look at a couple of indicators: 

Active cases, the extent of the infected population and degree (mild vs. serious or critical)

Closed cases the actual number of recoveries vs deaths in a dynamic pandemic such as Corovid19.

Call the numbers skewed all you want but the current measured relationship of recovery versus death, is currently 85% vs. 15%.....globally. We are an international company. We have to take those numbers into account.

We understand the potential population infected is likely 3-4x more (a very conservative number) but that is an active situation. 

The numbers are real, as was stated initially, these are CLOSED case comparisons, ACTIVE cases are measured separately. As they recover, or die they are added to the closed cases.

These are global numbers thus far, and yes due to the lack of leadership and action taken, we are behind the curve in the USA, so these numbers will greatly impact the ACTIVE cases, and eventually the CLOSED cases as well.

These are numbers posted. There are ACTIVE cases ongoing, the numbers you have commented on are COMPLETED cases of those recovered vs those who passed. That number will be impacted hopefully with a more forward action plan.

These numbers are constantly changing, and the total dead from this virus will surpass 20,000 today, globally.

We are well past "what should have been done" ....we are now into only... "what can be done."

Not a great way to fight a virus of this magnitude.

In no way was I disputing or trying to minimize your numbers, I personally was just saying that total number morality is much lower than 15%. I defer the math and statistics to people much smarter, like you, than myself. 

15% is likely way off.  The best estimates I have seen have it around 1% - with the very large caveat that this is under good conditions.  Still ten times worse than the standard flu, but nowhere near 15%.  

But as I have made pains to point out many times before, the mortality rate is the wrong thing to focus on here.  Really the problem we are facing is the hospitalization rate juxtaposed with the capacity of our critical care facilities.  Because if you start to overwhelm the hospitals, that becomes the point where the mortality rate starts to rise dramatically.  This is why those of us with training in math and biology were freaking out more than a month ago.  

All you needed to know is how grossly understaffed and unprepared our hospitals are.  You don't have to have math or biology training to know that the people who are running the hospitals have business backgrounds and not healthcare backgrounds.

I don't have any expertise in that space, but I do think an issue we have is that so many hospitals are run fairly close to capacity.  Probably the business of health care in the US is a big factor there, I'm not sure. 

But exponential growth of a contagion in a naive population has some fairly dire implications that largely swamp any level of preparedness of hospitals.  That is the point.  More open beds can buy you some time, but eventually even they get overrun.  

I believe this to be true.  I guess all I was trying to say is that a lot of the hospitals are run by people like the cheeto and not Fauci.  So when something like what we are currently experiencing the "heads" are running around not knowing what to do.  They are telling the staff to implement this and that not having the knowledge of what it really means to do those things.

Might be a good time for a reminder of Michelle Obama getting a sweetheart job working as a VP for U Chicago Medical Center and making over $300k per year, even with no credentials or experience in line with that level of responsibility.

thetrim said:

saluki2007 said:

JohnInCarolina said:

saluki2007 said:

JohnInCarolina said:

Battleborn said:

YukonRon said:

Battleborn said:

YukonRon said:

Samuel Clements once said "There are 3 kinds of lies; Lies, Dămned Lies and statistics.

The numbers I am following are cases that have been closed, either by a patient's death, or release due to no longer carrying the virus. That number is 85% surviving, 15% dead.

That number can, and will change, drastically the longer this virus is around.

But for my money, right now, that is a statistic I choose to watch more than cases reported and updated deaths.

Currently 96% of all the cases in progress are listed as moderate...with only 4% critical, or likely to die. Those numbers change over night and in fact, the CDC and the WHO as well as the NIH with a likelyhood of 25% of the moderate cases active currently to go ctitical....and 80% of those people dying due to underlying health issues, age and other factors such as blood type and whether they are male or female.

I dunno. I hope they are wrong. Real data or not, it is being tracked.

Still, the 15% mortality rate in those numbers are skewed. Nobody is getting tested. So far in the state of Nevada, the tests are going to those in close contact with other positive tests. It is nearly impossible for new tests to be done. A lady my wife works with began feeling sick around 10 days ago. She just got a test today. She was told her results would be in in 5-7 days. Luckily she self quarantined when she began feeling sick. No telling how many people she gave it to prior.

The state just got clearance to begin producing testing methods outside of the FDA. Hopefully more tests can be done. 

I get your point. In my areas of responsibilities, I also do work for the healthcare industry, we help build things like antimicrobial coatings, sanitary cleaning chemicals, and other items nobody thinks about until these events occur.

We look at a couple of indicators: 

Active cases, the extent of the infected population and degree (mild vs. serious or critical)

Closed cases the actual number of recoveries vs deaths in a dynamic pandemic such as Corovid19.

Call the numbers skewed all you want but the current measured relationship of recovery versus death, is currently 85% vs. 15%.....globally. We are an international company. We have to take those numbers into account.

We understand the potential population infected is likely 3-4x more (a very conservative number) but that is an active situation. 

The numbers are real, as was stated initially, these are CLOSED case comparisons, ACTIVE cases are measured separately. As they recover, or die they are added to the closed cases.

These are global numbers thus far, and yes due to the lack of leadership and action taken, we are behind the curve in the USA, so these numbers will greatly impact the ACTIVE cases, and eventually the CLOSED cases as well.

These are numbers posted. There are ACTIVE cases ongoing, the numbers you have commented on are COMPLETED cases of those recovered vs those who passed. That number will be impacted hopefully with a more forward action plan.

These numbers are constantly changing, and the total dead from this virus will surpass 20,000 today, globally.

We are well past "what should have been done" ....we are now into only... "what can be done."

Not a great way to fight a virus of this magnitude.

In no way was I disputing or trying to minimize your numbers, I personally was just saying that total number morality is much lower than 15%. I defer the math and statistics to people much smarter, like you, than myself. 

15% is likely way off.  The best estimates I have seen have it around 1% - with the very large caveat that this is under good conditions.  Still ten times worse than the standard flu, but nowhere near 15%.  

But as I have made pains to point out many times before, the mortality rate is the wrong thing to focus on here.  Really the problem we are facing is the hospitalization rate juxtaposed with the capacity of our critical care facilities.  Because if you start to overwhelm the hospitals, that becomes the point where the mortality rate starts to rise dramatically.  This is why those of us with training in math and biology were freaking out more than a month ago.  

All you needed to know is how grossly understaffed and unprepared our hospitals are.  You don't have to have math or biology training to know that the people who are running the hospitals have business backgrounds and not healthcare backgrounds.

I don't have any expertise in that space, but I do think an issue we have is that so many hospitals are run fairly close to capacity.  Probably the business of health care in the US is a big factor there, I'm not sure. 

But exponential growth of a contagion in a naive population has some fairly dire implications that largely swamp any level of preparedness of hospitals.  That is the point.  More open beds can buy you some time, but eventually even they get overrun.  

I believe this to be true.  I guess all I was trying to say is that a lot of the hospitals are run by people like the cheeto and not Fauci.  So when something like what we are currently experiencing the "heads" are running around not knowing what to do.  They are telling the staff to implement this and that not having the knowledge of what it really means to do those things.

Might be a good time for a reminder of Michelle Obama getting a sweetheart job working as a VP for U Chicago Medical Center and making over $300k per year, even with no credentials or experience in line with that level of responsibility.

caliking said:

DoubleEgger said:

I’ve always been wary of the medical profession. This just fuels my fire. 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/states-doctors-stockpiling-trial-coronavirus-190038095.html

somewhat surprising, given the lack of evidence that hydroxychloroquine is effective as treatment.

But I'd hold off on getting one's knickers in a bundle. How different is it from doctors writing antibiotics prescriptions for family or self? Folks can often see their doctor, or walk into almost any urgent care type of place,  and leave with a prescription for antibiotics . For the right or wrong reasons. And by the way, MD's aren't the only ones writing prescriptions - NPs and PA do to. 

I'd probably get some for myself if I knew it was effective. I can't really work from home, and risk exposure daily. Caliqueen stopped just short of saying she wants to burn my clothes when I get home every day. 

Just hoping that whatever measures are being taken will make a difference. 

saluki2007 said:

thetrim said:

saluki2007 said:

JohnInCarolina said:

saluki2007 said:

JohnInCarolina said:

Battleborn said:

YukonRon said:

Battleborn said:

YukonRon said:

Samuel Clements once said "There are 3 kinds of lies; Lies, Dămned Lies and statistics.

The numbers I am following are cases that have been closed, either by a patient's death, or release due to no longer carrying the virus. That number is 85% surviving, 15% dead.

That number can, and will change, drastically the longer this virus is around.

But for my money, right now, that is a statistic I choose to watch more than cases reported and updated deaths.

Currently 96% of all the cases in progress are listed as moderate...with only 4% critical, or likely to die. Those numbers change over night and in fact, the CDC and the WHO as well as the NIH with a likelyhood of 25% of the moderate cases active currently to go ctitical....and 80% of those people dying due to underlying health issues, age and other factors such as blood type and whether they are male or female.

I dunno. I hope they are wrong. Real data or not, it is being tracked.

Still, the 15% mortality rate in those numbers are skewed. Nobody is getting tested. So far in the state of Nevada, the tests are going to those in close contact with other positive tests. It is nearly impossible for new tests to be done. A lady my wife works with began feeling sick around 10 days ago. She just got a test today. She was told her results would be in in 5-7 days. Luckily she self quarantined when she began feeling sick. No telling how many people she gave it to prior.

The state just got clearance to begin producing testing methods outside of the FDA. Hopefully more tests can be done. 

I get your point. In my areas of responsibilities, I also do work for the healthcare industry, we help build things like antimicrobial coatings, sanitary cleaning chemicals, and other items nobody thinks about until these events occur.

We look at a couple of indicators: 

Active cases, the extent of the infected population and degree (mild vs. serious or critical)

Closed cases the actual number of recoveries vs deaths in a dynamic pandemic such as Corovid19.

Call the numbers skewed all you want but the current measured relationship of recovery versus death, is currently 85% vs. 15%.....globally. We are an international company. We have to take those numbers into account.

We understand the potential population infected is likely 3-4x more (a very conservative number) but that is an active situation. 

The numbers are real, as was stated initially, these are CLOSED case comparisons, ACTIVE cases are measured separately. As they recover, or die they are added to the closed cases.

These are global numbers thus far, and yes due to the lack of leadership and action taken, we are behind the curve in the USA, so these numbers will greatly impact the ACTIVE cases, and eventually the CLOSED cases as well.

These are numbers posted. There are ACTIVE cases ongoing, the numbers you have commented on are COMPLETED cases of those recovered vs those who passed. That number will be impacted hopefully with a more forward action plan.

These numbers are constantly changing, and the total dead from this virus will surpass 20,000 today, globally.

We are well past "what should have been done" ....we are now into only... "what can be done."

Not a great way to fight a virus of this magnitude.

In no way was I disputing or trying to minimize your numbers, I personally was just saying that total number morality is much lower than 15%. I defer the math and statistics to people much smarter, like you, than myself. 

15% is likely way off.  The best estimates I have seen have it around 1% - with the very large caveat that this is under good conditions.  Still ten times worse than the standard flu, but nowhere near 15%.  

But as I have made pains to point out many times before, the mortality rate is the wrong thing to focus on here.  Really the problem we are facing is the hospitalization rate juxtaposed with the capacity of our critical care facilities.  Because if you start to overwhelm the hospitals, that becomes the point where the mortality rate starts to rise dramatically.  This is why those of us with training in math and biology were freaking out more than a month ago.  

All you needed to know is how grossly understaffed and unprepared our hospitals are.  You don't have to have math or biology training to know that the people who are running the hospitals have business backgrounds and not healthcare backgrounds.

I don't have any expertise in that space, but I do think an issue we have is that so many hospitals are run fairly close to capacity.  Probably the business of health care in the US is a big factor there, I'm not sure. 

But exponential growth of a contagion in a naive population has some fairly dire implications that largely swamp any level of preparedness of hospitals.  That is the point.  More open beds can buy you some time, but eventually even they get overrun.  

I believe this to be true.  I guess all I was trying to say is that a lot of the hospitals are run by people like the cheeto and not Fauci.  So when something like what we are currently experiencing the "heads" are running around not knowing what to do.  They are telling the staff to implement this and that not having the knowledge of what it really means to do those things.

Might be a good time for a reminder of Michelle Obama getting a sweetheart job working as a VP for U Chicago Medical Center and making over $300k per year, even with no credentials or experience in line with that level of responsibility.

Take a moment and read this.  She basically had a fundraiser job.  It's not like she was making medical directions calls.

https://www.uchicagomedicine.org/forefront/news/michelle-obama-appointed-vice-president-for-community-and-external-affairs-at-the-university-of-chic

saluki2007 said:

saluki2007 said:

thetrim said:

saluki2007 said:

JohnInCarolina said:

saluki2007 said:

JohnInCarolina said:

Battleborn said:

YukonRon said:

Battleborn said:

YukonRon said:

Samuel Clements once said "There are 3 kinds of lies; Lies, Dămned Lies and statistics.

The numbers I am following are cases that have been closed, either by a patient's death, or release due to no longer carrying the virus. That number is 85% surviving, 15% dead.

That number can, and will change, drastically the longer this virus is around.

But for my money, right now, that is a statistic I choose to watch more than cases reported and updated deaths.

Currently 96% of all the cases in progress are listed as moderate...with only 4% critical, or likely to die. Those numbers change over night and in fact, the CDC and the WHO as well as the NIH with a likelyhood of 25% of the moderate cases active currently to go ctitical....and 80% of those people dying due to underlying health issues, age and other factors such as blood type and whether they are male or female.

I dunno. I hope they are wrong. Real data or not, it is being tracked.

Still, the 15% mortality rate in those numbers are skewed. Nobody is getting tested. So far in the state of Nevada, the tests are going to those in close contact with other positive tests. It is nearly impossible for new tests to be done. A lady my wife works with began feeling sick around 10 days ago. She just got a test today. She was told her results would be in in 5-7 days. Luckily she self quarantined when she began feeling sick. No telling how many people she gave it to prior.

The state just got clearance to begin producing testing methods outside of the FDA. Hopefully more tests can be done. 

I get your point. In my areas of responsibilities, I also do work for the healthcare industry, we help build things like antimicrobial coatings, sanitary cleaning chemicals, and other items nobody thinks about until these events occur.

We look at a couple of indicators: 

Active cases, the extent of the infected population and degree (mild vs. serious or critical)

Closed cases the actual number of recoveries vs deaths in a dynamic pandemic such as Corovid19.

Call the numbers skewed all you want but the current measured relationship of recovery versus death, is currently 85% vs. 15%.....globally. We are an international company. We have to take those numbers into account.

We understand the potential population infected is likely 3-4x more (a very conservative number) but that is an active situation. 

The numbers are real, as was stated initially, these are CLOSED case comparisons, ACTIVE cases are measured separately. As they recover, or die they are added to the closed cases.

These are global numbers thus far, and yes due to the lack of leadership and action taken, we are behind the curve in the USA, so these numbers will greatly impact the ACTIVE cases, and eventually the CLOSED cases as well.

These are numbers posted. There are ACTIVE cases ongoing, the numbers you have commented on are COMPLETED cases of those recovered vs those who passed. That number will be impacted hopefully with a more forward action plan.

These numbers are constantly changing, and the total dead from this virus will surpass 20,000 today, globally.

We are well past "what should have been done" ....we are now into only... "what can be done."

Not a great way to fight a virus of this magnitude.

In no way was I disputing or trying to minimize your numbers, I personally was just saying that total number morality is much lower than 15%. I defer the math and statistics to people much smarter, like you, than myself. 

15% is likely way off.  The best estimates I have seen have it around 1% - with the very large caveat that this is under good conditions.  Still ten times worse than the standard flu, but nowhere near 15%.  

But as I have made pains to point out many times before, the mortality rate is the wrong thing to focus on here.  Really the problem we are facing is the hospitalization rate juxtaposed with the capacity of our critical care facilities.  Because if you start to overwhelm the hospitals, that becomes the point where the mortality rate starts to rise dramatically.  This is why those of us with training in math and biology were freaking out more than a month ago.  

All you needed to know is how grossly understaffed and unprepared our hospitals are.  You don't have to have math or biology training to know that the people who are running the hospitals have business backgrounds and not healthcare backgrounds.

I don't have any expertise in that space, but I do think an issue we have is that so many hospitals are run fairly close to capacity.  Probably the business of health care in the US is a big factor there, I'm not sure. 

But exponential growth of a contagion in a naive population has some fairly dire implications that largely swamp any level of preparedness of hospitals.  That is the point.  More open beds can buy you some time, but eventually even they get overrun.  

I believe this to be true.  I guess all I was trying to say is that a lot of the hospitals are run by people like the cheeto and not Fauci.  So when something like what we are currently experiencing the "heads" are running around not knowing what to do.  They are telling the staff to implement this and that not having the knowledge of what it really means to do those things.

Might be a good time for a reminder of Michelle Obama getting a sweetheart job working as a VP for U Chicago Medical Center and making over $300k per year, even with no credentials or experience in line with that level of responsibility.

Take a moment and read this.  She basically had a fundraiser job.  It's not like she was making medical directions calls.

https://www.uchicagomedicine.org/forefront/news/michelle-obama-appointed-vice-president-for-community-and-external-affairs-at-the-university-of-chic

And to add to this, it happened while Barrack was a senator and she stepped down once he became president. 

frazzdaddy said:

DoubleEgger said:

caliking said:

DoubleEgger said:

I’ve always been wary of the medical profession. This just fuels my fire. 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/states-doctors-stockpiling-trial-coronavirus-190038095.html

somewhat surprising, given the lack of evidence that hydroxychloroquine is effective as treatment.

But I'd hold off on getting one's knickers in a bundle. How different is it from doctors writing antibiotics prescriptions for family or self? Folks can often see their doctor, or walk into almost any urgent care type of place,  and leave with a prescription for antibiotics . For the right or wrong reasons. And by the way, MD's aren't the only ones writing prescriptions - NPs and PA do to. 

I'd probably get some for myself if I knew it was effective. I can't really work from home, and risk exposure daily. Caliqueen stopped just short of saying she wants to burn my clothes when I get home every day. 

Just hoping that whatever measures are being taken will make a difference. 

I can guarantee you that I can’t go to the doctor’s office and get them to prescribe antibiotics to me just in case I might get sick. I get chronic sinus infections and they’ve laughed at me when I suggested having a “precautionary” prescription to save the cost of a doctor’s visit. 

Prescribing medicine to people who don’t need it has jailed a lot of doctors. Think opioid  epidemic. 

Agree. Might be hit or miss. Last two times I've been to different urgent care facilities for flu like symptoms, I have been offered "just in case". I turned them down as I wasn't that sick and didn't have test results yet. 

DoubleEgger said:

caliking said:

DoubleEgger said:

I’ve always been wary of the medical profession. This just fuels my fire. 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/states-doctors-stockpiling-trial-coronavirus-190038095.html

somewhat surprising, given the lack of evidence that hydroxychloroquine is effective as treatment.

But I'd hold off on getting one's knickers in a bundle. How different is it from doctors writing antibiotics prescriptions for family or self? Folks can often see their doctor, or walk into almost any urgent care type of place,  and leave with a prescription for antibiotics . For the right or wrong reasons. And by the way, MD's aren't the only ones writing prescriptions - NPs and PA do to. 

I'd probably get some for myself if I knew it was effective. I can't really work from home, and risk exposure daily. Caliqueen stopped just short of saying she wants to burn my clothes when I get home every day. 

Just hoping that whatever measures are being taken will make a difference. 

I can guarantee you that I can’t go to the doctor’s office and get them to prescribe antibiotics to me just in case I might get sick. I get chronic sinus infections and they’ve laughed at me when I suggested having a “precautionary” prescription to save the cost of a doctor’s visit. 

Prescribing medicine to people who don’t need it has jailed a lot of doctors. Think opioid  epidemic. 

Eoin said:

JohnInCarolina said:

saluki2007 said:

JohnInCarolina said:

Battleborn said:

YukonRon said:

Battleborn said:

YukonRon said:

Samuel Clements once said "There are 3 kinds of lies; Lies, Dămned Lies and statistics.

The numbers I am following are cases that have been closed, either by a patient's death, or release due to no longer carrying the virus. That number is 85% surviving, 15% dead.

That number can, and will change, drastically the longer this virus is around.

But for my money, right now, that is a statistic I choose to watch more than cases reported and updated deaths.

Currently 96% of all the cases in progress are listed as moderate...with only 4% critical, or likely to die. Those numbers change over night and in fact, the CDC and the WHO as well as the NIH with a likelyhood of 25% of the moderate cases active currently to go ctitical....and 80% of those people dying due to underlying health issues, age and other factors such as blood type and whether they are male or female.

I dunno. I hope they are wrong. Real data or not, it is being tracked.

Still, the 15% mortality rate in those numbers are skewed. Nobody is getting tested. So far in the state of Nevada, the tests are going to those in close contact with other positive tests. It is nearly impossible for new tests to be done. A lady my wife works with began feeling sick around 10 days ago. She just got a test today. She was told her results would be in in 5-7 days. Luckily she self quarantined when she began feeling sick. No telling how many people she gave it to prior.

The state just got clearance to begin producing testing methods outside of the FDA. Hopefully more tests can be done. 

I get your point. In my areas of responsibilities, I also do work for the healthcare industry, we help build things like antimicrobial coatings, sanitary cleaning chemicals, and other items nobody thinks about until these events occur.

We look at a couple of indicators: 

Active cases, the extent of the infected population and degree (mild vs. serious or critical)

Closed cases the actual number of recoveries vs deaths in a dynamic pandemic such as Corovid19.

Call the numbers skewed all you want but the current measured relationship of recovery versus death, is currently 85% vs. 15%.....globally. We are an international company. We have to take those numbers into account.

We understand the potential population infected is likely 3-4x more (a very conservative number) but that is an active situation. 

The numbers are real, as was stated initially, these are CLOSED case comparisons, ACTIVE cases are measured separately. As they recover, or die they are added to the closed cases.

These are global numbers thus far, and yes due to the lack of leadership and action taken, we are behind the curve in the USA, so these numbers will greatly impact the ACTIVE cases, and eventually the CLOSED cases as well.

These are numbers posted. There are ACTIVE cases ongoing, the numbers you have commented on are COMPLETED cases of those recovered vs those who passed. That number will be impacted hopefully with a more forward action plan.

These numbers are constantly changing, and the total dead from this virus will surpass 20,000 today, globally.

We are well past "what should have been done" ....we are now into only... "what can be done."

Not a great way to fight a virus of this magnitude.

In no way was I disputing or trying to minimize your numbers, I personally was just saying that total number morality is much lower than 15%. I defer the math and statistics to people much smarter, like you, than myself. 

15% is likely way off.  The best estimates I have seen have it around 1% - with the very large caveat that this is under good conditions.  Still ten times worse than the standard flu, but nowhere near 15%.  

But as I have made pains to point out many times before, the mortality rate is the wrong thing to focus on here.  Really the problem we are facing is the hospitalization rate juxtaposed with the capacity of our critical care facilities.  Because if you start to overwhelm the hospitals, that becomes the point where the mortality rate starts to rise dramatically.  This is why those of us with training in math and biology were freaking out more than a month ago.  

All you needed to know is how grossly understaffed and unprepared our hospitals are.  You don't have to have math or biology training to know that the people who are running the hospitals have business backgrounds and not healthcare backgrounds.

I don't have any expertise in that space, but I do think an issue we have is that so many hospitals are run fairly close to capacity.  Probably the business of health care in the US is a big factor there, I'm not sure. 

But exponential growth of a contagion in a naive population has some fairly dire implications that largely swamp any level of preparedness of hospitals.  That is the point.  More open beds can buy you some time, but eventually even they get overrun.  

The NHS is very financially efficient, partly because it runs close to capacity all of the time. However, being state run, it can also prioritise quickly, cancel elective procedures (stuff that won't kill you) to free up space for Covid19 patients. We also have the army putting a field hospital together in an exhibition centre in London. This will be repeated elsewhere. Are the US hospitals being told what to do, to make capacity, or just each working it out on its own?

nolaegghead said:

Still alive for some reason so I guess I'm doing something right.