If it wasn’t real for you yet

JohnInCarolina · March 2020

I'm trying to reconcile the need for a $2T stimulus package with the concept that things will be fine by the middle of April, and struggling with the cognitive dissonance.

Battleborn · March 2020

YukonRon said:

Battleborn said:

YukonRon said:

Samuel Clements once said "There are 3 kinds of lies; Lies, Dămned Lies and statistics.

The numbers I am following are cases that have been closed, either by a patient's death, or release due to no longer carrying the virus. That number is 85% surviving, 15% dead.

That number can, and will change, drastically the longer this virus is around.

But for my money, right now, that is a statistic I choose to watch more than cases reported and updated deaths.

Currently 96% of all the cases in progress are listed as moderate...with only 4% critical, or likely to die. Those numbers change over night and in fact, the CDC and the WHO as well as the NIH with a likelyhood of 25% of the moderate cases active currently to go ctitical....and 80% of those people dying due to underlying health issues, age and other factors such as blood type and whether they are male or female.

I dunno. I hope they are wrong. Real data or not, it is being tracked.

Still, the 15% mortality rate in those numbers are skewed. Nobody is getting tested. So far in the state of Nevada, the tests are going to those in close contact with other positive tests. It is nearly impossible for new tests to be done. A lady my wife works with began feeling sick around 10 days ago. She just got a test today. She was told her results would be in in 5-7 days. Luckily she self quarantined when she began feeling sick. No telling how many people she gave it to prior.

The state just got clearance to begin producing testing methods outside of the FDA. Hopefully more tests can be done.

I get your point. In my areas of responsibilities, I also do work for the healthcare industry, we help build things like antimicrobial coatings, sanitary cleaning chemicals, and other items nobody thinks about until these events occur.

We look at a couple of indicators:

Active cases, the extent of the infected population and degree (mild vs. serious or critical)

Closed cases the actual number of recoveries vs deaths in a dynamic pandemic such as Corovid19.

Call the numbers skewed all you want but the current measured relationship of recovery versus death, is currently 85% vs. 15%.....globally. We are an international company. We have to take those numbers into account.

We understand the potential population infected is likely 3-4x more (a very conservative number) but that is an active situation.

The numbers are real, as was stated initially, these are CLOSED case comparisons, ACTIVE cases are measured separately. As they recover, or die they are added to the closed cases.

These are global numbers thus far, and yes due to the lack of leadership and action taken, we are behind the curve in the USA, so these numbers will greatly impact the ACTIVE cases, and eventually the CLOSED cases as well.

These are numbers posted. There are ACTIVE cases ongoing, the numbers you have commented on are COMPLETED cases of those recovered vs those who passed. That number will be impacted hopefully with a more forward action plan.

These numbers are constantly changing, and the total dead from this virus will surpass 20,000 today, globally.

We are well past "what should have been done" ....we are now into only... "what can be done."

Not a great way to fight a virus of this magnitude.

In no way was I disputing or trying to minimize your numbers, I personally was just saying that total number morality is much lower than 15%. I defer the math and statistics to people much smarter, like you, than myself.

frazzdaddy · March 2020

Battleborn said:

YukonRon said:

Battleborn said:

YukonRon said:

Samuel Clements once said "There are 3 kinds of lies; Lies, Dămned Lies and statistics.

The numbers I am following are cases that have been closed, either by a patient's death, or release due to no longer carrying the virus. That number is 85% surviving, 15% dead.

That number can, and will change, drastically the longer this virus is around.

But for my money, right now, that is a statistic I choose to watch more than cases reported and updated deaths.

Currently 96% of all the cases in progress are listed as moderate...with only 4% critical, or likely to die. Those numbers change over night and in fact, the CDC and the WHO as well as the NIH with a likelyhood of 25% of the moderate cases active currently to go ctitical....and 80% of those people dying due to underlying health issues, age and other factors such as blood type and whether they are male or female.

I dunno. I hope they are wrong. Real data or not, it is being tracked.

Still, the 15% mortality rate in those numbers are skewed. Nobody is getting tested. So far in the state of Nevada, the tests are going to those in close contact with other positive tests. It is nearly impossible for new tests to be done. A lady my wife works with began feeling sick around 10 days ago. She just got a test today. She was told her results would be in in 5-7 days. Luckily she self quarantined when she began feeling sick. No telling how many people she gave it to prior.

The state just got clearance to begin producing testing methods outside of the FDA. Hopefully more tests can be done.

I get your point. In my areas of responsibilities, I also do work for the healthcare industry, we help build things like antimicrobial coatings, sanitary cleaning chemicals, and other items nobody thinks about until these events occur.

We look at a couple of indicators:

Active cases, the extent of the infected population and degree (mild vs. serious or critical)

Closed cases the actual number of recoveries vs deaths in a dynamic pandemic such as Corovid19.

Call the numbers skewed all you want but the current measured relationship of recovery versus death, is currently 85% vs. 15%.....globally. We are an international company. We have to take those numbers into account.

We understand the potential population infected is likely 3-4x more (a very conservative number) but that is an active situation.

The numbers are real, as was stated initially, these are CLOSED case comparisons, ACTIVE cases are measured separately. As they recover, or die they are added to the closed cases.

These are global numbers thus far, and yes due to the lack of leadership and action taken, we are behind the curve in the USA, so these numbers will greatly impact the ACTIVE cases, and eventually the CLOSED cases as well.

These are numbers posted. There are ACTIVE cases ongoing, the numbers you have commented on are COMPLETED cases of those recovered vs those who passed. That number will be impacted hopefully with a more forward action plan.

These numbers are constantly changing, and the total dead from this virus will surpass 20,000 today, globally.

We are well past "what should have been done" ....we are now into only... "what can be done."

Not a great way to fight a virus of this magnitude.

In no way was I disputing or trying to minimize your numbers, I personally was just saying that total number morality is much lower than 15%. I defer the math and statistics to people much smarter, like you, than myself.

That worries me as well.

JohnInCarolina · March 2020

Battleborn said:

YukonRon said:

Battleborn said:

YukonRon said:

Samuel Clements once said "There are 3 kinds of lies; Lies, Dămned Lies and statistics.

The numbers I am following are cases that have been closed, either by a patient's death, or release due to no longer carrying the virus. That number is 85% surviving, 15% dead.

That number can, and will change, drastically the longer this virus is around.

But for my money, right now, that is a statistic I choose to watch more than cases reported and updated deaths.

Currently 96% of all the cases in progress are listed as moderate...with only 4% critical, or likely to die. Those numbers change over night and in fact, the CDC and the WHO as well as the NIH with a likelyhood of 25% of the moderate cases active currently to go ctitical....and 80% of those people dying due to underlying health issues, age and other factors such as blood type and whether they are male or female.

I dunno. I hope they are wrong. Real data or not, it is being tracked.

Still, the 15% mortality rate in those numbers are skewed. Nobody is getting tested. So far in the state of Nevada, the tests are going to those in close contact with other positive tests. It is nearly impossible for new tests to be done. A lady my wife works with began feeling sick around 10 days ago. She just got a test today. She was told her results would be in in 5-7 days. Luckily she self quarantined when she began feeling sick. No telling how many people she gave it to prior.

The state just got clearance to begin producing testing methods outside of the FDA. Hopefully more tests can be done.

I get your point. In my areas of responsibilities, I also do work for the healthcare industry, we help build things like antimicrobial coatings, sanitary cleaning chemicals, and other items nobody thinks about until these events occur.

We look at a couple of indicators:

Active cases, the extent of the infected population and degree (mild vs. serious or critical)

Closed cases the actual number of recoveries vs deaths in a dynamic pandemic such as Corovid19.

Call the numbers skewed all you want but the current measured relationship of recovery versus death, is currently 85% vs. 15%.....globally. We are an international company. We have to take those numbers into account.

We understand the potential population infected is likely 3-4x more (a very conservative number) but that is an active situation.

The numbers are real, as was stated initially, these are CLOSED case comparisons, ACTIVE cases are measured separately. As they recover, or die they are added to the closed cases.

These are global numbers thus far, and yes due to the lack of leadership and action taken, we are behind the curve in the USA, so these numbers will greatly impact the ACTIVE cases, and eventually the CLOSED cases as well.

These are numbers posted. There are ACTIVE cases ongoing, the numbers you have commented on are COMPLETED cases of those recovered vs those who passed. That number will be impacted hopefully with a more forward action plan.

These numbers are constantly changing, and the total dead from this virus will surpass 20,000 today, globally.

We are well past "what should have been done" ....we are now into only... "what can be done."

Not a great way to fight a virus of this magnitude.

In no way was I disputing or trying to minimize your numbers, I personally was just saying that total number morality is much lower than 15%. I defer the math and statistics to people much smarter, like you, than myself.

15% is likely way off. The best estimates I have seen have it around 1% - with the very large caveat that this is under good conditions. Still ten times worse than the standard flu, but nowhere near 15%.

But as I have made pains to point out many times before, the mortality rate is the wrong thing to focus on here. Really the problem we are facing is the hospitalization rate juxtaposed with the capacity of our critical care facilities. Because if you start to overwhelm the hospitals, that becomes the point where the mortality rate starts to rise dramatically. This is why those of us with training in math and biology were freaking out more than a month ago.

saluki2007 · March 2020

JohnInCarolina said:

Battleborn said:

YukonRon said:

Battleborn said:

YukonRon said:

Samuel Clements once said "There are 3 kinds of lies; Lies, Dămned Lies and statistics.

The numbers I am following are cases that have been closed, either by a patient's death, or release due to no longer carrying the virus. That number is 85% surviving, 15% dead.

That number can, and will change, drastically the longer this virus is around.

But for my money, right now, that is a statistic I choose to watch more than cases reported and updated deaths.

Currently 96% of all the cases in progress are listed as moderate...with only 4% critical, or likely to die. Those numbers change over night and in fact, the CDC and the WHO as well as the NIH with a likelyhood of 25% of the moderate cases active currently to go ctitical....and 80% of those people dying due to underlying health issues, age and other factors such as blood type and whether they are male or female.

I dunno. I hope they are wrong. Real data or not, it is being tracked.

Still, the 15% mortality rate in those numbers are skewed. Nobody is getting tested. So far in the state of Nevada, the tests are going to those in close contact with other positive tests. It is nearly impossible for new tests to be done. A lady my wife works with began feeling sick around 10 days ago. She just got a test today. She was told her results would be in in 5-7 days. Luckily she self quarantined when she began feeling sick. No telling how many people she gave it to prior.

The state just got clearance to begin producing testing methods outside of the FDA. Hopefully more tests can be done.

I get your point. In my areas of responsibilities, I also do work for the healthcare industry, we help build things like antimicrobial coatings, sanitary cleaning chemicals, and other items nobody thinks about until these events occur.

We look at a couple of indicators:

Active cases, the extent of the infected population and degree (mild vs. serious or critical)

Closed cases the actual number of recoveries vs deaths in a dynamic pandemic such as Corovid19.

Call the numbers skewed all you want but the current measured relationship of recovery versus death, is currently 85% vs. 15%.....globally. We are an international company. We have to take those numbers into account.

We understand the potential population infected is likely 3-4x more (a very conservative number) but that is an active situation.

The numbers are real, as was stated initially, these are CLOSED case comparisons, ACTIVE cases are measured separately. As they recover, or die they are added to the closed cases.

These are global numbers thus far, and yes due to the lack of leadership and action taken, we are behind the curve in the USA, so these numbers will greatly impact the ACTIVE cases, and eventually the CLOSED cases as well.

These are numbers posted. There are ACTIVE cases ongoing, the numbers you have commented on are COMPLETED cases of those recovered vs those who passed. That number will be impacted hopefully with a more forward action plan.

These numbers are constantly changing, and the total dead from this virus will surpass 20,000 today, globally.

We are well past "what should have been done" ....we are now into only... "what can be done."

Not a great way to fight a virus of this magnitude.

In no way was I disputing or trying to minimize your numbers, I personally was just saying that total number morality is much lower than 15%. I defer the math and statistics to people much smarter, like you, than myself.

15% is likely way off. The best estimates I have seen have it around 1% - with the very large caveat that this is under good conditions. Still ten times worse than the standard flu, but nowhere near 15%.

But as I have made pains to point out many times before, the mortality rate is the wrong thing to focus on here. Really the problem we are facing is the hospitalization rate juxtaposed with the capacity of our critical care facilities. Because if you start to overwhelm the hospitals, that becomes the point where the mortality rate starts to rise dramatically. This is why those of us with training in math and biology were freaking out more than a month ago.

All you needed to know is how grossly understaffed and unprepared our hospitals are. You don't have to have math or biology training to know that the people who are running the hospitals have business backgrounds and not healthcare backgrounds.

dbCooper · March 2020

nolaegghead said:

https://www.nola.com/news/coronavirus/article_0a01ee00-6e29-11ea-9f1a-874949baed92.html

Thank you for posting that article. It is insightful having firsthand accounts from those with "boots on the ground". No consolation for those in New Orleans, but other firsthand accounts indicate the situation for medical workers there is not unique. All of them deserve our admiration.

JohnInCarolina · March 2020

saluki2007 said:

JohnInCarolina said:

Battleborn said:

YukonRon said:

Battleborn said:

YukonRon said:

Samuel Clements once said "There are 3 kinds of lies; Lies, Dămned Lies and statistics.

The numbers I am following are cases that have been closed, either by a patient's death, or release due to no longer carrying the virus. That number is 85% surviving, 15% dead.

That number can, and will change, drastically the longer this virus is around.

But for my money, right now, that is a statistic I choose to watch more than cases reported and updated deaths.

Currently 96% of all the cases in progress are listed as moderate...with only 4% critical, or likely to die. Those numbers change over night and in fact, the CDC and the WHO as well as the NIH with a likelyhood of 25% of the moderate cases active currently to go ctitical....and 80% of those people dying due to underlying health issues, age and other factors such as blood type and whether they are male or female.

I dunno. I hope they are wrong. Real data or not, it is being tracked.

Still, the 15% mortality rate in those numbers are skewed. Nobody is getting tested. So far in the state of Nevada, the tests are going to those in close contact with other positive tests. It is nearly impossible for new tests to be done. A lady my wife works with began feeling sick around 10 days ago. She just got a test today. She was told her results would be in in 5-7 days. Luckily she self quarantined when she began feeling sick. No telling how many people she gave it to prior.

The state just got clearance to begin producing testing methods outside of the FDA. Hopefully more tests can be done.

I get your point. In my areas of responsibilities, I also do work for the healthcare industry, we help build things like antimicrobial coatings, sanitary cleaning chemicals, and other items nobody thinks about until these events occur.

We look at a couple of indicators:

Active cases, the extent of the infected population and degree (mild vs. serious or critical)

Closed cases the actual number of recoveries vs deaths in a dynamic pandemic such as Corovid19.

Call the numbers skewed all you want but the current measured relationship of recovery versus death, is currently 85% vs. 15%.....globally. We are an international company. We have to take those numbers into account.

We understand the potential population infected is likely 3-4x more (a very conservative number) but that is an active situation.

The numbers are real, as was stated initially, these are CLOSED case comparisons, ACTIVE cases are measured separately. As they recover, or die they are added to the closed cases.

These are global numbers thus far, and yes due to the lack of leadership and action taken, we are behind the curve in the USA, so these numbers will greatly impact the ACTIVE cases, and eventually the CLOSED cases as well.

These are numbers posted. There are ACTIVE cases ongoing, the numbers you have commented on are COMPLETED cases of those recovered vs those who passed. That number will be impacted hopefully with a more forward action plan.

These numbers are constantly changing, and the total dead from this virus will surpass 20,000 today, globally.

We are well past "what should have been done" ....we are now into only... "what can be done."

Not a great way to fight a virus of this magnitude.

In no way was I disputing or trying to minimize your numbers, I personally was just saying that total number morality is much lower than 15%. I defer the math and statistics to people much smarter, like you, than myself.

15% is likely way off. The best estimates I have seen have it around 1% - with the very large caveat that this is under good conditions. Still ten times worse than the standard flu, but nowhere near 15%.

But as I have made pains to point out many times before, the mortality rate is the wrong thing to focus on here. Really the problem we are facing is the hospitalization rate juxtaposed with the capacity of our critical care facilities. Because if you start to overwhelm the hospitals, that becomes the point where the mortality rate starts to rise dramatically. This is why those of us with training in math and biology were freaking out more than a month ago.

All you needed to know is how grossly understaffed and unprepared our hospitals are. You don't have to have math or biology training to know that the people who are running the hospitals have business backgrounds and not healthcare backgrounds.

I don't have any expertise in that space, but I do think an issue we have is that so many hospitals are run fairly close to capacity. Probably the business of health care in the US is a big factor there, I'm not sure.

But exponential growth of a contagion in a naive population has some fairly dire implications that largely swamp any level of preparedness of hospitals. That is the point. More open beds can buy you some time, but eventually even they get overrun.

nolaegghead · March 2020

Everyone simmer down. We have the "BEST" people at the highest levels of government working on this, and people say they are doing an incredible job, unlike the world has ever seen before.

saluki2007 · March 2020

JohnInCarolina said:

saluki2007 said:

JohnInCarolina said:

Battleborn said:

YukonRon said:

Battleborn said:

YukonRon said:

Samuel Clements once said "There are 3 kinds of lies; Lies, Dămned Lies and statistics.

The numbers I am following are cases that have been closed, either by a patient's death, or release due to no longer carrying the virus. That number is 85% surviving, 15% dead.

That number can, and will change, drastically the longer this virus is around.

But for my money, right now, that is a statistic I choose to watch more than cases reported and updated deaths.

Currently 96% of all the cases in progress are listed as moderate...with only 4% critical, or likely to die. Those numbers change over night and in fact, the CDC and the WHO as well as the NIH with a likelyhood of 25% of the moderate cases active currently to go ctitical....and 80% of those people dying due to underlying health issues, age and other factors such as blood type and whether they are male or female.

I dunno. I hope they are wrong. Real data or not, it is being tracked.

Still, the 15% mortality rate in those numbers are skewed. Nobody is getting tested. So far in the state of Nevada, the tests are going to those in close contact with other positive tests. It is nearly impossible for new tests to be done. A lady my wife works with began feeling sick around 10 days ago. She just got a test today. She was told her results would be in in 5-7 days. Luckily she self quarantined when she began feeling sick. No telling how many people she gave it to prior.

The state just got clearance to begin producing testing methods outside of the FDA. Hopefully more tests can be done.

I get your point. In my areas of responsibilities, I also do work for the healthcare industry, we help build things like antimicrobial coatings, sanitary cleaning chemicals, and other items nobody thinks about until these events occur.

We look at a couple of indicators:

Active cases, the extent of the infected population and degree (mild vs. serious or critical)

Closed cases the actual number of recoveries vs deaths in a dynamic pandemic such as Corovid19.

Call the numbers skewed all you want but the current measured relationship of recovery versus death, is currently 85% vs. 15%.....globally. We are an international company. We have to take those numbers into account.

We understand the potential population infected is likely 3-4x more (a very conservative number) but that is an active situation.

The numbers are real, as was stated initially, these are CLOSED case comparisons, ACTIVE cases are measured separately. As they recover, or die they are added to the closed cases.

These are global numbers thus far, and yes due to the lack of leadership and action taken, we are behind the curve in the USA, so these numbers will greatly impact the ACTIVE cases, and eventually the CLOSED cases as well.

These are numbers posted. There are ACTIVE cases ongoing, the numbers you have commented on are COMPLETED cases of those recovered vs those who passed. That number will be impacted hopefully with a more forward action plan.

These numbers are constantly changing, and the total dead from this virus will surpass 20,000 today, globally.

We are well past "what should have been done" ....we are now into only... "what can be done."

Not a great way to fight a virus of this magnitude.

In no way was I disputing or trying to minimize your numbers, I personally was just saying that total number morality is much lower than 15%. I defer the math and statistics to people much smarter, like you, than myself.

15% is likely way off. The best estimates I have seen have it around 1% - with the very large caveat that this is under good conditions. Still ten times worse than the standard flu, but nowhere near 15%.

But as I have made pains to point out many times before, the mortality rate is the wrong thing to focus on here. Really the problem we are facing is the hospitalization rate juxtaposed with the capacity of our critical care facilities. Because if you start to overwhelm the hospitals, that becomes the point where the mortality rate starts to rise dramatically. This is why those of us with training in math and biology were freaking out more than a month ago.

All you needed to know is how grossly understaffed and unprepared our hospitals are. You don't have to have math or biology training to know that the people who are running the hospitals have business backgrounds and not healthcare backgrounds.

I don't have any expertise in that space, but I do think an issue we have is that so many hospitals are run fairly close to capacity. Probably the business of health care in the US is a big factor there, I'm not sure.

But exponential growth of a contagion in a naive population has some fairly dire implications that largely swamp any level of preparedness of hospitals. That is the point. More open beds can buy you some time, but eventually even they get overrun.

I believe this to be true. I guess all I was trying to say is that a lot of the hospitals are run by people like the cheeto and not Fauci. So when something like what we are currently experiencing the "heads" are running around not knowing what to do. They are telling the staff to implement this and that not having the knowledge of what it really means to do those things.

thetrim · March 2020

saluki2007 said:

JohnInCarolina said:

saluki2007 said:

JohnInCarolina said:

Battleborn said:

YukonRon said:

Battleborn said:

YukonRon said:

Samuel Clements once said "There are 3 kinds of lies; Lies, Dămned Lies and statistics.

The numbers I am following are cases that have been closed, either by a patient's death, or release due to no longer carrying the virus. That number is 85% surviving, 15% dead.

That number can, and will change, drastically the longer this virus is around.

But for my money, right now, that is a statistic I choose to watch more than cases reported and updated deaths.

Currently 96% of all the cases in progress are listed as moderate...with only 4% critical, or likely to die. Those numbers change over night and in fact, the CDC and the WHO as well as the NIH with a likelyhood of 25% of the moderate cases active currently to go ctitical....and 80% of those people dying due to underlying health issues, age and other factors such as blood type and whether they are male or female.

I dunno. I hope they are wrong. Real data or not, it is being tracked.

Still, the 15% mortality rate in those numbers are skewed. Nobody is getting tested. So far in the state of Nevada, the tests are going to those in close contact with other positive tests. It is nearly impossible for new tests to be done. A lady my wife works with began feeling sick around 10 days ago. She just got a test today. She was told her results would be in in 5-7 days. Luckily she self quarantined when she began feeling sick. No telling how many people she gave it to prior.

The state just got clearance to begin producing testing methods outside of the FDA. Hopefully more tests can be done.

I get your point. In my areas of responsibilities, I also do work for the healthcare industry, we help build things like antimicrobial coatings, sanitary cleaning chemicals, and other items nobody thinks about until these events occur.

We look at a couple of indicators:

Active cases, the extent of the infected population and degree (mild vs. serious or critical)

Closed cases the actual number of recoveries vs deaths in a dynamic pandemic such as Corovid19.

Call the numbers skewed all you want but the current measured relationship of recovery versus death, is currently 85% vs. 15%.....globally. We are an international company. We have to take those numbers into account.

We understand the potential population infected is likely 3-4x more (a very conservative number) but that is an active situation.

The numbers are real, as was stated initially, these are CLOSED case comparisons, ACTIVE cases are measured separately. As they recover, or die they are added to the closed cases.

These are global numbers thus far, and yes due to the lack of leadership and action taken, we are behind the curve in the USA, so these numbers will greatly impact the ACTIVE cases, and eventually the CLOSED cases as well.

These are numbers posted. There are ACTIVE cases ongoing, the numbers you have commented on are COMPLETED cases of those recovered vs those who passed. That number will be impacted hopefully with a more forward action plan.

These numbers are constantly changing, and the total dead from this virus will surpass 20,000 today, globally.

We are well past "what should have been done" ....we are now into only... "what can be done."

Not a great way to fight a virus of this magnitude.

In no way was I disputing or trying to minimize your numbers, I personally was just saying that total number morality is much lower than 15%. I defer the math and statistics to people much smarter, like you, than myself.

15% is likely way off. The best estimates I have seen have it around 1% - with the very large caveat that this is under good conditions. Still ten times worse than the standard flu, but nowhere near 15%.

But as I have made pains to point out many times before, the mortality rate is the wrong thing to focus on here. Really the problem we are facing is the hospitalization rate juxtaposed with the capacity of our critical care facilities. Because if you start to overwhelm the hospitals, that becomes the point where the mortality rate starts to rise dramatically. This is why those of us with training in math and biology were freaking out more than a month ago.

All you needed to know is how grossly understaffed and unprepared our hospitals are. You don't have to have math or biology training to know that the people who are running the hospitals have business backgrounds and not healthcare backgrounds.

I don't have any expertise in that space, but I do think an issue we have is that so many hospitals are run fairly close to capacity. Probably the business of health care in the US is a big factor there, I'm not sure.

But exponential growth of a contagion in a naive population has some fairly dire implications that largely swamp any level of preparedness of hospitals. That is the point. More open beds can buy you some time, but eventually even they get overrun.

I believe this to be true. I guess all I was trying to say is that a lot of the hospitals are run by people like the cheeto and not Fauci. So when something like what we are currently experiencing the "heads" are running around not knowing what to do. They are telling the staff to implement this and that not having the knowledge of what it really means to do those things.

Might be a good time for a reminder of Michelle Obama getting a sweetheart job working as a VP for U Chicago Medical Center and making over $300k per year, even with no credentials or experience in line with that level of responsibility.

womaus · March 2020

DMW said:

This is the result of a heavy diet of Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity.

That diet causes Type 2 DumbAsWheaties.

saluki2007 · March 2020

thetrim said:

saluki2007 said:

JohnInCarolina said:

saluki2007 said:

JohnInCarolina said:

Battleborn said:

YukonRon said:

Battleborn said:

YukonRon said:

Samuel Clements once said "There are 3 kinds of lies; Lies, Dămned Lies and statistics.

The numbers I am following are cases that have been closed, either by a patient's death, or release due to no longer carrying the virus. That number is 85% surviving, 15% dead.

That number can, and will change, drastically the longer this virus is around.

But for my money, right now, that is a statistic I choose to watch more than cases reported and updated deaths.

Currently 96% of all the cases in progress are listed as moderate...with only 4% critical, or likely to die. Those numbers change over night and in fact, the CDC and the WHO as well as the NIH with a likelyhood of 25% of the moderate cases active currently to go ctitical....and 80% of those people dying due to underlying health issues, age and other factors such as blood type and whether they are male or female.

I dunno. I hope they are wrong. Real data or not, it is being tracked.

Still, the 15% mortality rate in those numbers are skewed. Nobody is getting tested. So far in the state of Nevada, the tests are going to those in close contact with other positive tests. It is nearly impossible for new tests to be done. A lady my wife works with began feeling sick around 10 days ago. She just got a test today. She was told her results would be in in 5-7 days. Luckily she self quarantined when she began feeling sick. No telling how many people she gave it to prior.

The state just got clearance to begin producing testing methods outside of the FDA. Hopefully more tests can be done.

I get your point. In my areas of responsibilities, I also do work for the healthcare industry, we help build things like antimicrobial coatings, sanitary cleaning chemicals, and other items nobody thinks about until these events occur.

We look at a couple of indicators:

Active cases, the extent of the infected population and degree (mild vs. serious or critical)

Closed cases the actual number of recoveries vs deaths in a dynamic pandemic such as Corovid19.

Call the numbers skewed all you want but the current measured relationship of recovery versus death, is currently 85% vs. 15%.....globally. We are an international company. We have to take those numbers into account.

We understand the potential population infected is likely 3-4x more (a very conservative number) but that is an active situation.

The numbers are real, as was stated initially, these are CLOSED case comparisons, ACTIVE cases are measured separately. As they recover, or die they are added to the closed cases.

These are global numbers thus far, and yes due to the lack of leadership and action taken, we are behind the curve in the USA, so these numbers will greatly impact the ACTIVE cases, and eventually the CLOSED cases as well.

These are numbers posted. There are ACTIVE cases ongoing, the numbers you have commented on are COMPLETED cases of those recovered vs those who passed. That number will be impacted hopefully with a more forward action plan.

These numbers are constantly changing, and the total dead from this virus will surpass 20,000 today, globally.

We are well past "what should have been done" ....we are now into only... "what can be done."

Not a great way to fight a virus of this magnitude.

In no way was I disputing or trying to minimize your numbers, I personally was just saying that total number morality is much lower than 15%. I defer the math and statistics to people much smarter, like you, than myself.

15% is likely way off. The best estimates I have seen have it around 1% - with the very large caveat that this is under good conditions. Still ten times worse than the standard flu, but nowhere near 15%.

But as I have made pains to point out many times before, the mortality rate is the wrong thing to focus on here. Really the problem we are facing is the hospitalization rate juxtaposed with the capacity of our critical care facilities. Because if you start to overwhelm the hospitals, that becomes the point where the mortality rate starts to rise dramatically. This is why those of us with training in math and biology were freaking out more than a month ago.

All you needed to know is how grossly understaffed and unprepared our hospitals are. You don't have to have math or biology training to know that the people who are running the hospitals have business backgrounds and not healthcare backgrounds.

I don't have any expertise in that space, but I do think an issue we have is that so many hospitals are run fairly close to capacity. Probably the business of health care in the US is a big factor there, I'm not sure.

But exponential growth of a contagion in a naive population has some fairly dire implications that largely swamp any level of preparedness of hospitals. That is the point. More open beds can buy you some time, but eventually even they get overrun.

I believe this to be true. I guess all I was trying to say is that a lot of the hospitals are run by people like the cheeto and not Fauci. So when something like what we are currently experiencing the "heads" are running around not knowing what to do. They are telling the staff to implement this and that not having the knowledge of what it really means to do those things.

Might be a good time for a reminder of Michelle Obama getting a sweetheart job working as a VP for U Chicago Medical Center and making over $300k per year, even with no credentials or experience in line with that level of responsibility.

Take a moment and read this. She basically had a fundraiser job. It's not like she was making medical directions calls.

https://www.uchicagomedicine.org/forefront/news/michelle-obama-appointed-vice-president-for-community-and-external-affairs-at-the-university-of-chic

JohnInCarolina · March 2020

thetrim said:

saluki2007 said:

JohnInCarolina said:

saluki2007 said:

JohnInCarolina said:

Battleborn said:

YukonRon said:

Battleborn said:

YukonRon said:

Samuel Clements once said "There are 3 kinds of lies; Lies, Dămned Lies and statistics.

The numbers I am following are cases that have been closed, either by a patient's death, or release due to no longer carrying the virus. That number is 85% surviving, 15% dead.

That number can, and will change, drastically the longer this virus is around.

But for my money, right now, that is a statistic I choose to watch more than cases reported and updated deaths.

Currently 96% of all the cases in progress are listed as moderate...with only 4% critical, or likely to die. Those numbers change over night and in fact, the CDC and the WHO as well as the NIH with a likelyhood of 25% of the moderate cases active currently to go ctitical....and 80% of those people dying due to underlying health issues, age and other factors such as blood type and whether they are male or female.

I dunno. I hope they are wrong. Real data or not, it is being tracked.

Still, the 15% mortality rate in those numbers are skewed. Nobody is getting tested. So far in the state of Nevada, the tests are going to those in close contact with other positive tests. It is nearly impossible for new tests to be done. A lady my wife works with began feeling sick around 10 days ago. She just got a test today. She was told her results would be in in 5-7 days. Luckily she self quarantined when she began feeling sick. No telling how many people she gave it to prior.

The state just got clearance to begin producing testing methods outside of the FDA. Hopefully more tests can be done.

I get your point. In my areas of responsibilities, I also do work for the healthcare industry, we help build things like antimicrobial coatings, sanitary cleaning chemicals, and other items nobody thinks about until these events occur.

We look at a couple of indicators:

Active cases, the extent of the infected population and degree (mild vs. serious or critical)

Closed cases the actual number of recoveries vs deaths in a dynamic pandemic such as Corovid19.

Call the numbers skewed all you want but the current measured relationship of recovery versus death, is currently 85% vs. 15%.....globally. We are an international company. We have to take those numbers into account.

We understand the potential population infected is likely 3-4x more (a very conservative number) but that is an active situation.

The numbers are real, as was stated initially, these are CLOSED case comparisons, ACTIVE cases are measured separately. As they recover, or die they are added to the closed cases.

These are global numbers thus far, and yes due to the lack of leadership and action taken, we are behind the curve in the USA, so these numbers will greatly impact the ACTIVE cases, and eventually the CLOSED cases as well.

These are numbers posted. There are ACTIVE cases ongoing, the numbers you have commented on are COMPLETED cases of those recovered vs those who passed. That number will be impacted hopefully with a more forward action plan.

These numbers are constantly changing, and the total dead from this virus will surpass 20,000 today, globally.

We are well past "what should have been done" ....we are now into only... "what can be done."

Not a great way to fight a virus of this magnitude.

In no way was I disputing or trying to minimize your numbers, I personally was just saying that total number morality is much lower than 15%. I defer the math and statistics to people much smarter, like you, than myself.

15% is likely way off. The best estimates I have seen have it around 1% - with the very large caveat that this is under good conditions. Still ten times worse than the standard flu, but nowhere near 15%.

But as I have made pains to point out many times before, the mortality rate is the wrong thing to focus on here. Really the problem we are facing is the hospitalization rate juxtaposed with the capacity of our critical care facilities. Because if you start to overwhelm the hospitals, that becomes the point where the mortality rate starts to rise dramatically. This is why those of us with training in math and biology were freaking out more than a month ago.

All you needed to know is how grossly understaffed and unprepared our hospitals are. You don't have to have math or biology training to know that the people who are running the hospitals have business backgrounds and not healthcare backgrounds.

I don't have any expertise in that space, but I do think an issue we have is that so many hospitals are run fairly close to capacity. Probably the business of health care in the US is a big factor there, I'm not sure.

But exponential growth of a contagion in a naive population has some fairly dire implications that largely swamp any level of preparedness of hospitals. That is the point. More open beds can buy you some time, but eventually even they get overrun.

I believe this to be true. I guess all I was trying to say is that a lot of the hospitals are run by people like the cheeto and not Fauci. So when something like what we are currently experiencing the "heads" are running around not knowing what to do. They are telling the staff to implement this and that not having the knowledge of what it really means to do those things.

Might be a good time for a reminder of Michelle Obama getting a sweetheart job working as a VP for U Chicago Medical Center and making over $300k per year, even with no credentials or experience in line with that level of responsibility.

Your obsession with Michelle Obama has got to be one of the more bizarre things I've seen on this forum.

And for what it's worth, she has executive experience working for a major hospital from way before the Obamas were in the White House. So not only is your obsession with her perverse, your statement also happens to be incorrect.

nolaegghead · March 2020

thetrim said:

saluki2007 said:

JohnInCarolina said:

saluki2007 said:

JohnInCarolina said:

Battleborn said:

YukonRon said:

Battleborn said:

YukonRon said:

Samuel Clements once said "There are 3 kinds of lies; Lies, Dămned Lies and statistics.

The numbers I am following are cases that have been closed, either by a patient's death, or release due to no longer carrying the virus. That number is 85% surviving, 15% dead.

That number can, and will change, drastically the longer this virus is around.

But for my money, right now, that is a statistic I choose to watch more than cases reported and updated deaths.

Currently 96% of all the cases in progress are listed as moderate...with only 4% critical, or likely to die. Those numbers change over night and in fact, the CDC and the WHO as well as the NIH with a likelyhood of 25% of the moderate cases active currently to go ctitical....and 80% of those people dying due to underlying health issues, age and other factors such as blood type and whether they are male or female.

I dunno. I hope they are wrong. Real data or not, it is being tracked.

Still, the 15% mortality rate in those numbers are skewed. Nobody is getting tested. So far in the state of Nevada, the tests are going to those in close contact with other positive tests. It is nearly impossible for new tests to be done. A lady my wife works with began feeling sick around 10 days ago. She just got a test today. She was told her results would be in in 5-7 days. Luckily she self quarantined when she began feeling sick. No telling how many people she gave it to prior.

The state just got clearance to begin producing testing methods outside of the FDA. Hopefully more tests can be done.

I get your point. In my areas of responsibilities, I also do work for the healthcare industry, we help build things like antimicrobial coatings, sanitary cleaning chemicals, and other items nobody thinks about until these events occur.

We look at a couple of indicators:

Active cases, the extent of the infected population and degree (mild vs. serious or critical)

Closed cases the actual number of recoveries vs deaths in a dynamic pandemic such as Corovid19.

Call the numbers skewed all you want but the current measured relationship of recovery versus death, is currently 85% vs. 15%.....globally. We are an international company. We have to take those numbers into account.

We understand the potential population infected is likely 3-4x more (a very conservative number) but that is an active situation.

The numbers are real, as was stated initially, these are CLOSED case comparisons, ACTIVE cases are measured separately. As they recover, or die they are added to the closed cases.

These are global numbers thus far, and yes due to the lack of leadership and action taken, we are behind the curve in the USA, so these numbers will greatly impact the ACTIVE cases, and eventually the CLOSED cases as well.

These are numbers posted. There are ACTIVE cases ongoing, the numbers you have commented on are COMPLETED cases of those recovered vs those who passed. That number will be impacted hopefully with a more forward action plan.

These numbers are constantly changing, and the total dead from this virus will surpass 20,000 today, globally.

We are well past "what should have been done" ....we are now into only... "what can be done."

Not a great way to fight a virus of this magnitude.

In no way was I disputing or trying to minimize your numbers, I personally was just saying that total number morality is much lower than 15%. I defer the math and statistics to people much smarter, like you, than myself.

15% is likely way off. The best estimates I have seen have it around 1% - with the very large caveat that this is under good conditions. Still ten times worse than the standard flu, but nowhere near 15%.

But as I have made pains to point out many times before, the mortality rate is the wrong thing to focus on here. Really the problem we are facing is the hospitalization rate juxtaposed with the capacity of our critical care facilities. Because if you start to overwhelm the hospitals, that becomes the point where the mortality rate starts to rise dramatically. This is why those of us with training in math and biology were freaking out more than a month ago.

All you needed to know is how grossly understaffed and unprepared our hospitals are. You don't have to have math or biology training to know that the people who are running the hospitals have business backgrounds and not healthcare backgrounds.

I don't have any expertise in that space, but I do think an issue we have is that so many hospitals are run fairly close to capacity. Probably the business of health care in the US is a big factor there, I'm not sure.

But exponential growth of a contagion in a naive population has some fairly dire implications that largely swamp any level of preparedness of hospitals. That is the point. More open beds can buy you some time, but eventually even they get overrun.

I believe this to be true. I guess all I was trying to say is that a lot of the hospitals are run by people like the cheeto and not Fauci. So when something like what we are currently experiencing the "heads" are running around not knowing what to do. They are telling the staff to implement this and that not having the knowledge of what it really means to do those things.

Might be a good time for a reminder of Michelle Obama getting a sweetheart job working as a VP for U Chicago Medical Center and making over $300k per year, even with no credentials or experience in line with that level of responsibility.

Probably her Princeton Cum Laude degree and Harvard law degree made her way over qualified. I get it, man. Some people just don't get it.

nolaegghead · March 2020

....good thing she's not an Asian or Eastern European immigrant model that got some special treatment for a fast-tracked citizenship and didn't anchor other family member's citizenship. Because, WOW, that would be antithetical to our current policies.

womaus · March 2020

Eoin said:

frazzdaddy said:

frazzdaddy said:

JohnInCarolina said:

frazzdaddy said:

Legume said:

I can’t wait for “no president has ever opened a country up faster than me”

If federal isn’t mandating closing anything outside of federal functions, how will it open anything?

Not sure the governors are listening much less care what he has to say.

They would appear to care about masks and ventilators right now.

Glad they do. Cheeto apparently does not.

To the disagree. I realize it may be hard but man up and join the disco, or not and prove me right.

I'll just requote the call to man up for the benefit of the most recent anonymous flaggers.

Loved the "man up and join the disco" part.

"Guests of a Disco Birthday Party at Trump’s L.A. Golf Course Catch the Coronavirus"

https://www.lamag.com/article/trump-golf-course-coronavirus/

Irony at its best.

Stay safe my friends, keep away from the idiots that don't understand the severity.

nolaegghead · March 2020

Man, what a rough time to be a fact and science denier. I really feel for those people.

DoubleEgger · March 2020

caliking said:

DoubleEgger said:

I’ve always been wary of the medical profession. This just fuels my fire.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/states-doctors-stockpiling-trial-coronavirus-190038095.html

somewhat surprising, given the lack of evidence that hydroxychloroquine is effective as treatment.

But I'd hold off on getting one's knickers in a bundle. How different is it from doctors writing antibiotics prescriptions for family or self? Folks can often see their doctor, or walk into almost any urgent care type of place, and leave with a prescription for antibiotics . For the right or wrong reasons. And by the way, MD's aren't the only ones writing prescriptions - NPs and PA do to.

I'd probably get some for myself if I knew it was effective. I can't really work from home, and risk exposure daily. Caliqueen stopped just short of saying she wants to burn my clothes when I get home every day.

Just hoping that whatever measures are being taken will make a difference.

I can guarantee you that I can’t go to the doctor’s office and get them to prescribe antibiotics to me just in case I might get sick. I get chronic sinus infections and they’ve laughed at me when I suggested having a “precautionary” prescription to save the cost of a doctor’s visit.

Prescribing medicine to people who don’t need it has jailed a lot of doctors. Think opioid epidemic.

nolaegghead · March 2020

@littlerascal56 has been noticeably quiet. I thought he was zooming through 9 holes in under an hour. You would think he'd have plenty of time to post on his stock market/economist acumen and boast of the virtues of MAGA economics. Huh.

saluki2007 · March 2020

saluki2007 said:

thetrim said:

saluki2007 said:

JohnInCarolina said:

saluki2007 said:

JohnInCarolina said:

Battleborn said:

YukonRon said:

Battleborn said:

YukonRon said:

Samuel Clements once said "There are 3 kinds of lies; Lies, Dămned Lies and statistics.

The numbers I am following are cases that have been closed, either by a patient's death, or release due to no longer carrying the virus. That number is 85% surviving, 15% dead.

That number can, and will change, drastically the longer this virus is around.

But for my money, right now, that is a statistic I choose to watch more than cases reported and updated deaths.

Currently 96% of all the cases in progress are listed as moderate...with only 4% critical, or likely to die. Those numbers change over night and in fact, the CDC and the WHO as well as the NIH with a likelyhood of 25% of the moderate cases active currently to go ctitical....and 80% of those people dying due to underlying health issues, age and other factors such as blood type and whether they are male or female.

I dunno. I hope they are wrong. Real data or not, it is being tracked.

Still, the 15% mortality rate in those numbers are skewed. Nobody is getting tested. So far in the state of Nevada, the tests are going to those in close contact with other positive tests. It is nearly impossible for new tests to be done. A lady my wife works with began feeling sick around 10 days ago. She just got a test today. She was told her results would be in in 5-7 days. Luckily she self quarantined when she began feeling sick. No telling how many people she gave it to prior.

The state just got clearance to begin producing testing methods outside of the FDA. Hopefully more tests can be done.

I get your point. In my areas of responsibilities, I also do work for the healthcare industry, we help build things like antimicrobial coatings, sanitary cleaning chemicals, and other items nobody thinks about until these events occur.

We look at a couple of indicators:

Active cases, the extent of the infected population and degree (mild vs. serious or critical)

Closed cases the actual number of recoveries vs deaths in a dynamic pandemic such as Corovid19.

Call the numbers skewed all you want but the current measured relationship of recovery versus death, is currently 85% vs. 15%.....globally. We are an international company. We have to take those numbers into account.

We understand the potential population infected is likely 3-4x more (a very conservative number) but that is an active situation.

The numbers are real, as was stated initially, these are CLOSED case comparisons, ACTIVE cases are measured separately. As they recover, or die they are added to the closed cases.

These are global numbers thus far, and yes due to the lack of leadership and action taken, we are behind the curve in the USA, so these numbers will greatly impact the ACTIVE cases, and eventually the CLOSED cases as well.

These are numbers posted. There are ACTIVE cases ongoing, the numbers you have commented on are COMPLETED cases of those recovered vs those who passed. That number will be impacted hopefully with a more forward action plan.

These numbers are constantly changing, and the total dead from this virus will surpass 20,000 today, globally.

We are well past "what should have been done" ....we are now into only... "what can be done."

Not a great way to fight a virus of this magnitude.

In no way was I disputing or trying to minimize your numbers, I personally was just saying that total number morality is much lower than 15%. I defer the math and statistics to people much smarter, like you, than myself.

15% is likely way off. The best estimates I have seen have it around 1% - with the very large caveat that this is under good conditions. Still ten times worse than the standard flu, but nowhere near 15%.

But as I have made pains to point out many times before, the mortality rate is the wrong thing to focus on here. Really the problem we are facing is the hospitalization rate juxtaposed with the capacity of our critical care facilities. Because if you start to overwhelm the hospitals, that becomes the point where the mortality rate starts to rise dramatically. This is why those of us with training in math and biology were freaking out more than a month ago.

All you needed to know is how grossly understaffed and unprepared our hospitals are. You don't have to have math or biology training to know that the people who are running the hospitals have business backgrounds and not healthcare backgrounds.

I don't have any expertise in that space, but I do think an issue we have is that so many hospitals are run fairly close to capacity. Probably the business of health care in the US is a big factor there, I'm not sure.

But exponential growth of a contagion in a naive population has some fairly dire implications that largely swamp any level of preparedness of hospitals. That is the point. More open beds can buy you some time, but eventually even they get overrun.

I believe this to be true. I guess all I was trying to say is that a lot of the hospitals are run by people like the cheeto and not Fauci. So when something like what we are currently experiencing the "heads" are running around not knowing what to do. They are telling the staff to implement this and that not having the knowledge of what it really means to do those things.

Might be a good time for a reminder of Michelle Obama getting a sweetheart job working as a VP for U Chicago Medical Center and making over $300k per year, even with no credentials or experience in line with that level of responsibility.

Take a moment and read this. She basically had a fundraiser job. It's not like she was making medical directions calls.

https://www.uchicagomedicine.org/forefront/news/michelle-obama-appointed-vice-president-for-community-and-external-affairs-at-the-university-of-chic

And to add to this, it happened while Barrack was a senator and she stepped down once he became president.

frazzdaddy · March 2020

DoubleEgger said:

caliking said:

DoubleEgger said:

I’ve always been wary of the medical profession. This just fuels my fire.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/states-doctors-stockpiling-trial-coronavirus-190038095.html

somewhat surprising, given the lack of evidence that hydroxychloroquine is effective as treatment.

But I'd hold off on getting one's knickers in a bundle. How different is it from doctors writing antibiotics prescriptions for family or self? Folks can often see their doctor, or walk into almost any urgent care type of place, and leave with a prescription for antibiotics . For the right or wrong reasons. And by the way, MD's aren't the only ones writing prescriptions - NPs and PA do to.

I'd probably get some for myself if I knew it was effective. I can't really work from home, and risk exposure daily. Caliqueen stopped just short of saying she wants to burn my clothes when I get home every day.

Just hoping that whatever measures are being taken will make a difference.

I can guarantee you that I can’t go to the doctor’s office and get them to prescribe antibiotics to me just in case I might get sick. I get chronic sinus infections and they’ve laughed at me when I suggested having a “precautionary” prescription to save the cost of a doctor’s visit.

Prescribing medicine to people who don’t need it has jailed a lot of doctors. Think opioid epidemic.

Agree. Might be hit or miss. Last two times I've been to different urgent care facilities for flu like symptoms, I have been offered "just in case". I turned them down as I wasn't that sick and didn't have test results yet.

frazzdaddy · March 2020

saluki2007 said:

saluki2007 said:

thetrim said:

saluki2007 said:

JohnInCarolina said:

saluki2007 said:

JohnInCarolina said:

Battleborn said:

YukonRon said:

Battleborn said:

YukonRon said:

Samuel Clements once said "There are 3 kinds of lies; Lies, Dămned Lies and statistics.

The numbers I am following are cases that have been closed, either by a patient's death, or release due to no longer carrying the virus. That number is 85% surviving, 15% dead.

That number can, and will change, drastically the longer this virus is around.

But for my money, right now, that is a statistic I choose to watch more than cases reported and updated deaths.

Currently 96% of all the cases in progress are listed as moderate...with only 4% critical, or likely to die. Those numbers change over night and in fact, the CDC and the WHO as well as the NIH with a likelyhood of 25% of the moderate cases active currently to go ctitical....and 80% of those people dying due to underlying health issues, age and other factors such as blood type and whether they are male or female.

I dunno. I hope they are wrong. Real data or not, it is being tracked.

Still, the 15% mortality rate in those numbers are skewed. Nobody is getting tested. So far in the state of Nevada, the tests are going to those in close contact with other positive tests. It is nearly impossible for new tests to be done. A lady my wife works with began feeling sick around 10 days ago. She just got a test today. She was told her results would be in in 5-7 days. Luckily she self quarantined when she began feeling sick. No telling how many people she gave it to prior.

The state just got clearance to begin producing testing methods outside of the FDA. Hopefully more tests can be done.

I get your point. In my areas of responsibilities, I also do work for the healthcare industry, we help build things like antimicrobial coatings, sanitary cleaning chemicals, and other items nobody thinks about until these events occur.

We look at a couple of indicators:

Active cases, the extent of the infected population and degree (mild vs. serious or critical)

Closed cases the actual number of recoveries vs deaths in a dynamic pandemic such as Corovid19.

Call the numbers skewed all you want but the current measured relationship of recovery versus death, is currently 85% vs. 15%.....globally. We are an international company. We have to take those numbers into account.

We understand the potential population infected is likely 3-4x more (a very conservative number) but that is an active situation.

The numbers are real, as was stated initially, these are CLOSED case comparisons, ACTIVE cases are measured separately. As they recover, or die they are added to the closed cases.

These are global numbers thus far, and yes due to the lack of leadership and action taken, we are behind the curve in the USA, so these numbers will greatly impact the ACTIVE cases, and eventually the CLOSED cases as well.

These are numbers posted. There are ACTIVE cases ongoing, the numbers you have commented on are COMPLETED cases of those recovered vs those who passed. That number will be impacted hopefully with a more forward action plan.

These numbers are constantly changing, and the total dead from this virus will surpass 20,000 today, globally.

We are well past "what should have been done" ....we are now into only... "what can be done."

Not a great way to fight a virus of this magnitude.

In no way was I disputing or trying to minimize your numbers, I personally was just saying that total number morality is much lower than 15%. I defer the math and statistics to people much smarter, like you, than myself.

15% is likely way off. The best estimates I have seen have it around 1% - with the very large caveat that this is under good conditions. Still ten times worse than the standard flu, but nowhere near 15%.

But as I have made pains to point out many times before, the mortality rate is the wrong thing to focus on here. Really the problem we are facing is the hospitalization rate juxtaposed with the capacity of our critical care facilities. Because if you start to overwhelm the hospitals, that becomes the point where the mortality rate starts to rise dramatically. This is why those of us with training in math and biology were freaking out more than a month ago.

All you needed to know is how grossly understaffed and unprepared our hospitals are. You don't have to have math or biology training to know that the people who are running the hospitals have business backgrounds and not healthcare backgrounds.

I don't have any expertise in that space, but I do think an issue we have is that so many hospitals are run fairly close to capacity. Probably the business of health care in the US is a big factor there, I'm not sure.

But exponential growth of a contagion in a naive population has some fairly dire implications that largely swamp any level of preparedness of hospitals. That is the point. More open beds can buy you some time, but eventually even they get overrun.

I believe this to be true. I guess all I was trying to say is that a lot of the hospitals are run by people like the cheeto and not Fauci. So when something like what we are currently experiencing the "heads" are running around not knowing what to do. They are telling the staff to implement this and that not having the knowledge of what it really means to do those things.

Might be a good time for a reminder of Michelle Obama getting a sweetheart job working as a VP for U Chicago Medical Center and making over $300k per year, even with no credentials or experience in line with that level of responsibility.

Take a moment and read this. She basically had a fundraiser job. It's not like she was making medical directions calls.

https://www.uchicagomedicine.org/forefront/news/michelle-obama-appointed-vice-president-for-community-and-external-affairs-at-the-university-of-chic

And to add to this, it happened while Barrack was a senator and she stepped down once he became president.

As popular as she is, Cheeto should be very thankful she is not interested in the WH.

saluki2007 · March 2020

frazzdaddy said:

DoubleEgger said:

caliking said:

DoubleEgger said:

I’ve always been wary of the medical profession. This just fuels my fire.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/states-doctors-stockpiling-trial-coronavirus-190038095.html

somewhat surprising, given the lack of evidence that hydroxychloroquine is effective as treatment.

But I'd hold off on getting one's knickers in a bundle. How different is it from doctors writing antibiotics prescriptions for family or self? Folks can often see their doctor, or walk into almost any urgent care type of place, and leave with a prescription for antibiotics . For the right or wrong reasons. And by the way, MD's aren't the only ones writing prescriptions - NPs and PA do to.

I'd probably get some for myself if I knew it was effective. I can't really work from home, and risk exposure daily. Caliqueen stopped just short of saying she wants to burn my clothes when I get home every day.

Just hoping that whatever measures are being taken will make a difference.

I can guarantee you that I can’t go to the doctor’s office and get them to prescribe antibiotics to me just in case I might get sick. I get chronic sinus infections and they’ve laughed at me when I suggested having a “precautionary” prescription to save the cost of a doctor’s visit.

Prescribing medicine to people who don’t need it has jailed a lot of doctors. Think opioid epidemic.

Agree. Might be hit or miss. Last two times I've been to different urgent care facilities for flu like symptoms, I have been offered "just in case". I turned them down as I wasn't that sick and didn't have test results yet.

And that's why our health insurance is so expensive. If you weren't that sick then don't go to the hospital/urgent care.

nolaegghead · March 2020

frazzdaddy said:

DoubleEgger said:

caliking said:

DoubleEgger said:

I’ve always been wary of the medical profession. This just fuels my fire.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/states-doctors-stockpiling-trial-coronavirus-190038095.html

somewhat surprising, given the lack of evidence that hydroxychloroquine is effective as treatment.

But I'd hold off on getting one's knickers in a bundle. How different is it from doctors writing antibiotics prescriptions for family or self? Folks can often see their doctor, or walk into almost any urgent care type of place, and leave with a prescription for antibiotics . For the right or wrong reasons. And by the way, MD's aren't the only ones writing prescriptions - NPs and PA do to.

I'd probably get some for myself if I knew it was effective. I can't really work from home, and risk exposure daily. Caliqueen stopped just short of saying she wants to burn my clothes when I get home every day.

Just hoping that whatever measures are being taken will make a difference.

I can guarantee you that I can’t go to the doctor’s office and get them to prescribe antibiotics to me just in case I might get sick. I get chronic sinus infections and they’ve laughed at me when I suggested having a “precautionary” prescription to save the cost of a doctor’s visit.

Prescribing medicine to people who don’t need it has jailed a lot of doctors. Think opioid epidemic.

Agree. Might be hit or miss. Last two times I've been to different urgent care facilities for flu like symptoms, I have been offered "just in case". I turned them down as I wasn't that sick and didn't have test results yet.

I agree. I avoid antibiotics. I think I took them twice in my life and once was a potential bone infection (super bad if you ever get one) from a donor site for a bone graft I had done.

When you take antibiotics, you screw up your natural gut flora and you weaken your immune system which gets stronger when it fights stuff. I'm old school. Still alive for some reason so I guess I'm doing something right.

Eoin · March 2020

JohnInCarolina said:

saluki2007 said:

JohnInCarolina said:

Battleborn said:

YukonRon said:

Battleborn said:

YukonRon said:

Samuel Clements once said "There are 3 kinds of lies; Lies, Dămned Lies and statistics.

The numbers I am following are cases that have been closed, either by a patient's death, or release due to no longer carrying the virus. That number is 85% surviving, 15% dead.

That number can, and will change, drastically the longer this virus is around.

But for my money, right now, that is a statistic I choose to watch more than cases reported and updated deaths.

Currently 96% of all the cases in progress are listed as moderate...with only 4% critical, or likely to die. Those numbers change over night and in fact, the CDC and the WHO as well as the NIH with a likelyhood of 25% of the moderate cases active currently to go ctitical....and 80% of those people dying due to underlying health issues, age and other factors such as blood type and whether they are male or female.

I dunno. I hope they are wrong. Real data or not, it is being tracked.

Still, the 15% mortality rate in those numbers are skewed. Nobody is getting tested. So far in the state of Nevada, the tests are going to those in close contact with other positive tests. It is nearly impossible for new tests to be done. A lady my wife works with began feeling sick around 10 days ago. She just got a test today. She was told her results would be in in 5-7 days. Luckily she self quarantined when she began feeling sick. No telling how many people she gave it to prior.

The state just got clearance to begin producing testing methods outside of the FDA. Hopefully more tests can be done.

I get your point. In my areas of responsibilities, I also do work for the healthcare industry, we help build things like antimicrobial coatings, sanitary cleaning chemicals, and other items nobody thinks about until these events occur.

We look at a couple of indicators:

Active cases, the extent of the infected population and degree (mild vs. serious or critical)

Closed cases the actual number of recoveries vs deaths in a dynamic pandemic such as Corovid19.

Call the numbers skewed all you want but the current measured relationship of recovery versus death, is currently 85% vs. 15%.....globally. We are an international company. We have to take those numbers into account.

We understand the potential population infected is likely 3-4x more (a very conservative number) but that is an active situation.

The numbers are real, as was stated initially, these are CLOSED case comparisons, ACTIVE cases are measured separately. As they recover, or die they are added to the closed cases.

These are global numbers thus far, and yes due to the lack of leadership and action taken, we are behind the curve in the USA, so these numbers will greatly impact the ACTIVE cases, and eventually the CLOSED cases as well.

These are numbers posted. There are ACTIVE cases ongoing, the numbers you have commented on are COMPLETED cases of those recovered vs those who passed. That number will be impacted hopefully with a more forward action plan.

These numbers are constantly changing, and the total dead from this virus will surpass 20,000 today, globally.

We are well past "what should have been done" ....we are now into only... "what can be done."

Not a great way to fight a virus of this magnitude.

In no way was I disputing or trying to minimize your numbers, I personally was just saying that total number morality is much lower than 15%. I defer the math and statistics to people much smarter, like you, than myself.

15% is likely way off. The best estimates I have seen have it around 1% - with the very large caveat that this is under good conditions. Still ten times worse than the standard flu, but nowhere near 15%.

But as I have made pains to point out many times before, the mortality rate is the wrong thing to focus on here. Really the problem we are facing is the hospitalization rate juxtaposed with the capacity of our critical care facilities. Because if you start to overwhelm the hospitals, that becomes the point where the mortality rate starts to rise dramatically. This is why those of us with training in math and biology were freaking out more than a month ago.

All you needed to know is how grossly understaffed and unprepared our hospitals are. You don't have to have math or biology training to know that the people who are running the hospitals have business backgrounds and not healthcare backgrounds.

I don't have any expertise in that space, but I do think an issue we have is that so many hospitals are run fairly close to capacity. Probably the business of health care in the US is a big factor there, I'm not sure.

But exponential growth of a contagion in a naive population has some fairly dire implications that largely swamp any level of preparedness of hospitals. That is the point. More open beds can buy you some time, but eventually even they get overrun.

The NHS is very financially efficient, partly because it runs close to capacity all of the time. However, being state run, it can also prioritise quickly, cancel elective procedures (stuff that won't kill you) to free up space for Covid19 patients. We also have the army putting a field hospital together in an exhibition centre in London. This will be repeated elsewhere. Are the US hospitals being told what to do, to make capacity, or just each working it out on its own?

caliking · March 2020

DoubleEgger said:

caliking said:

DoubleEgger said:

I’ve always been wary of the medical profession. This just fuels my fire.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/states-doctors-stockpiling-trial-coronavirus-190038095.html

somewhat surprising, given the lack of evidence that hydroxychloroquine is effective as treatment.

But I'd hold off on getting one's knickers in a bundle. How different is it from doctors writing antibiotics prescriptions for family or self? Folks can often see their doctor, or walk into almost any urgent care type of place, and leave with a prescription for antibiotics . For the right or wrong reasons. And by the way, MD's aren't the only ones writing prescriptions - NPs and PA do to.

I'd probably get some for myself if I knew it was effective. I can't really work from home, and risk exposure daily. Caliqueen stopped just short of saying she wants to burn my clothes when I get home every day.

Just hoping that whatever measures are being taken will make a difference.

I can guarantee you that I can’t go to the doctor’s office and get them to prescribe antibiotics to me just in case I might get sick. I get chronic sinus infections and they’ve laughed at me when I suggested having a “precautionary” prescription to save the cost of a doctor’s visit.

Prescribing medicine to people who don’t need it has jailed a lot of doctors. Think opioid epidemic.

I'll bet that you could go to an urgent care and get antibiotics whenever you wanted. The cost of the doctor's visit may not be why your doctor denied prophylactic antibiotics so far. I don't know the specifics of your sinus problems, and likely don't have the expertise to comment on them.

And there's a world of difference between self-prescribing narcotics vs. antibiotics. That's a slope you slid down pretty fast.

frazzdaddy · March 2020

saluki2007 said:

frazzdaddy said:

DoubleEgger said:

caliking said:

DoubleEgger said:

I’ve always been wary of the medical profession. This just fuels my fire.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/states-doctors-stockpiling-trial-coronavirus-190038095.html

somewhat surprising, given the lack of evidence that hydroxychloroquine is effective as treatment.

But I'd hold off on getting one's knickers in a bundle. How different is it from doctors writing antibiotics prescriptions for family or self? Folks can often see their doctor, or walk into almost any urgent care type of place, and leave with a prescription for antibiotics . For the right or wrong reasons. And by the way, MD's aren't the only ones writing prescriptions - NPs and PA do to.

I'd probably get some for myself if I knew it was effective. I can't really work from home, and risk exposure daily. Caliqueen stopped just short of saying she wants to burn my clothes when I get home every day.

Just hoping that whatever measures are being taken will make a difference.

I can guarantee you that I can’t go to the doctor’s office and get them to prescribe antibiotics to me just in case I might get sick. I get chronic sinus infections and they’ve laughed at me when I suggested having a “precautionary” prescription to save the cost of a doctor’s visit.

Prescribing medicine to people who don’t need it has jailed a lot of doctors. Think opioid epidemic.

Agree. Might be hit or miss. Last two times I've been to different urgent care facilities for flu like symptoms, I have been offered "just in case". I turned them down as I wasn't that sick and didn't have test results yet.

And that's why our health insurance is so expensive. If you weren't that sick then don't go to the hospital/urgent care.

OK one more time. This time read slowly. I was sick, but w/o knowing if they would help I was not about to take antibiotics "just in case".

GATraveller · March 2020

Eoin said:

JohnInCarolina said:

saluki2007 said:

JohnInCarolina said:

Battleborn said:

YukonRon said:

Battleborn said:

YukonRon said:

Samuel Clements once said "There are 3 kinds of lies; Lies, Dămned Lies and statistics.

The numbers I am following are cases that have been closed, either by a patient's death, or release due to no longer carrying the virus. That number is 85% surviving, 15% dead.

That number can, and will change, drastically the longer this virus is around.

But for my money, right now, that is a statistic I choose to watch more than cases reported and updated deaths.

Currently 96% of all the cases in progress are listed as moderate...with only 4% critical, or likely to die. Those numbers change over night and in fact, the CDC and the WHO as well as the NIH with a likelyhood of 25% of the moderate cases active currently to go ctitical....and 80% of those people dying due to underlying health issues, age and other factors such as blood type and whether they are male or female.

I dunno. I hope they are wrong. Real data or not, it is being tracked.

Still, the 15% mortality rate in those numbers are skewed. Nobody is getting tested. So far in the state of Nevada, the tests are going to those in close contact with other positive tests. It is nearly impossible for new tests to be done. A lady my wife works with began feeling sick around 10 days ago. She just got a test today. She was told her results would be in in 5-7 days. Luckily she self quarantined when she began feeling sick. No telling how many people she gave it to prior.

The state just got clearance to begin producing testing methods outside of the FDA. Hopefully more tests can be done.

I get your point. In my areas of responsibilities, I also do work for the healthcare industry, we help build things like antimicrobial coatings, sanitary cleaning chemicals, and other items nobody thinks about until these events occur.

We look at a couple of indicators:

Active cases, the extent of the infected population and degree (mild vs. serious or critical)

Closed cases the actual number of recoveries vs deaths in a dynamic pandemic such as Corovid19.

Call the numbers skewed all you want but the current measured relationship of recovery versus death, is currently 85% vs. 15%.....globally. We are an international company. We have to take those numbers into account.

We understand the potential population infected is likely 3-4x more (a very conservative number) but that is an active situation.

The numbers are real, as was stated initially, these are CLOSED case comparisons, ACTIVE cases are measured separately. As they recover, or die they are added to the closed cases.

These are global numbers thus far, and yes due to the lack of leadership and action taken, we are behind the curve in the USA, so these numbers will greatly impact the ACTIVE cases, and eventually the CLOSED cases as well.

These are numbers posted. There are ACTIVE cases ongoing, the numbers you have commented on are COMPLETED cases of those recovered vs those who passed. That number will be impacted hopefully with a more forward action plan.

These numbers are constantly changing, and the total dead from this virus will surpass 20,000 today, globally.

We are well past "what should have been done" ....we are now into only... "what can be done."

Not a great way to fight a virus of this magnitude.

In no way was I disputing or trying to minimize your numbers, I personally was just saying that total number morality is much lower than 15%. I defer the math and statistics to people much smarter, like you, than myself.

15% is likely way off. The best estimates I have seen have it around 1% - with the very large caveat that this is under good conditions. Still ten times worse than the standard flu, but nowhere near 15%.

But as I have made pains to point out many times before, the mortality rate is the wrong thing to focus on here. Really the problem we are facing is the hospitalization rate juxtaposed with the capacity of our critical care facilities. Because if you start to overwhelm the hospitals, that becomes the point where the mortality rate starts to rise dramatically. This is why those of us with training in math and biology were freaking out more than a month ago.

All you needed to know is how grossly understaffed and unprepared our hospitals are. You don't have to have math or biology training to know that the people who are running the hospitals have business backgrounds and not healthcare backgrounds.

I don't have any expertise in that space, but I do think an issue we have is that so many hospitals are run fairly close to capacity. Probably the business of health care in the US is a big factor there, I'm not sure.

But exponential growth of a contagion in a naive population has some fairly dire implications that largely swamp any level of preparedness of hospitals. That is the point. More open beds can buy you some time, but eventually even they get overrun.

The NHS is very financially efficient, partly because it runs close to capacity all of the time. However, being state run, it can also prioritise quickly, cancel elective procedures (stuff that won't kill you) to free up space for Covid19 patients. We also have the army putting a field hospital together in an exhibition centre in London. This will be repeated elsewhere. Are the US hospitals being told what to do, to make capacity, or just each working it out on its own?

Several states have moved forward with it on their own.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03/a-washington-town-is-turning-a-soccer-field-into-a-hospital.html

US Army Corps of Engineers are working on converting hotels into hospitals.
https://www.wired.com/story/us-army-corps-of-engineers-deploys-against-coronavirus/

Looks like the Navy is sending a hospital ship to L.A.
https://www.military.com/daily-news/2020/03/24/heres-how-navy-hospital-ship-will-help-fight-coronavirus-pandemic.html

Botch · March 2020

HeavyG said:

Eoin said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52012049

A good read. Thanks.
"that Pyongyang-on-the-Potomac style" cracked me up. Every time Pence speaks about Trump I can't help but picture North Korean newscaster Ri Chun Hee doing her thing.

It is quite amazing how clearly VP pence can enunciate, with his nose so far up someone's arse.

womaus · March 2020

nolaegghead said:

Still alive for some reason so I guess I'm doing something right.

Probably due to your innate ability to continue venting your spleen on a regular basis.

Stay healthy, and please keep the vent alive.

If it wasn’t real for you yet

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