OT: Major hurricane

Gulfcoastguy

Ozzie_Isaac said:

I think Jim Cant-ore walks at an angle even with no wind.

He walks at an angle because one is so much more massive than the other.

HeavyG

Ozzie_Isaac said:

I think Jim Cant-ore walks at an angle even with no wind.

"Back home that's what we call an overcooked ham."

Botch

This morning I'd never heard of Jim Cantore.  Now tonight I see he's branching out.
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKxHXsZPZhY

lousubcap

@Botch- Jim Cantore made his brand by getting positioned  (Weather Channel assist) into the weather hot spots around the country.   He landed (not a good sign for the location) in Louisville on August 4, 2009 as we got 6 inches of rain in one hour with more that followed. (Clearly the weather worthy story of the day.)
If he never showed up on your doorstep , life was good weather-wise.  FWIW-

Botch

Yeah, after seeing a few memes via googlez I figured he's as welcome on your doorstep as the reporters from 60 Minutes...    

kl8ton

Foghorn said:

kl8ton said:

Foghorn said:

Gulfcoastguy said:

Now projected just south of Tampa Bay for the eye https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2022/hurricane-ian?map=5day&MR=1

That's good news for Tampa/St. Pete.  Bad news for friends of ours who just bought a house in Venice a few months ago.

Potentially disastrous news for Little Gasparilla Island.  Few people even know it exists because it is a barrier island only reachable by boat but I had an aunt that had a place there so we vacationed there a couple of times.  This storm could destroy most of the buildings there.

Is that by Boca grand?

Yes.  Boca Grande is on Gasparilla Island.  There is a road to it.  Little Gasparilla is the next barrier island to the north of that.  No roads to it and the houses are relatively poorly constructed.  It may just be a sand bar after this.

I climbed up that lighthouse! Wasn't exactly open.....


Looks like I may not be taking the annual Thanksgiving Ft Myers beach trip....

Legume

There will probably be an abundance of trailers down there this year.

SamIAm2

Legume said:

There will probably be an abundance of trailers down there this year.

And an abundance of out of state roofers selling 15 year shingles and installing 5 year instead.

Legume

Do they make 5 year shingles?

fishlessman

My mom 

Has peanut butter and bread, suncity. That's all I got. don't know what to to

Say

Gulfcoastguy

SamIAm2 said:

Legume said:

There will probably be an abundance of trailers down there this year.

And an abundance of out of state roofers selling 15 year shingles and installing 5 year instead.

Judging from Katrina, most of them will just want to put the blue tarps on. They can do several of those a day while a good crew might be able to put shingles on 2 houses a day. More profit, quicker. We rented a house to one of those contractors after Katrina, when everybody had tarps up he left. The thing is the Mormons were putting them up for free.

Florida Grillin Girl

We dodged a bullet again in the Tampa bay area, just lucky, I guess. Tomorrow, I am sorry to see the damage caused by this storm. UGG.

nolaegghead

The vast majority of storm chasing construction workers and con men come from either Texas or Florida (not mutually exclusive) when we have a natural disaster.  A lot of these guys won’t have to travel far.

alaskanassasin

It is amazing they still have no idea where these things are going. The model I saw yesterday had it going straight north to Ohio by Sunday/Monday and now its going to shoot up the east coast.

ColbyLang

Weather man, best job in the world. Wrong 100% of the time, still getting paid

SamIAm2

Waiting for this to move north. This system is moving very slow. Had a quick power glitch at 2:49 am. One more clock to reset and grateful for that. Have family near Tampa, waiting to hear how they are. 

SamIAm2

Legume said:

Do they make 5 year shingles?

Yes - https://www.homedepot.com/b/Building-Materials-Roofing-Roof-Shingles/5-Year-Limited-Warranty/N-5yc1vZc5rbZ1z19yl7

Foghorn

I just got report from brother-in-law (just south of Orlando near Disney) and a friend (north of Orlando).  One has power - one doesn't.  Neither house is flooded and all home structures remain intact including the screen over the pool at one location.  Hopefully the worst is over - but it will likely take a couple of days to learn about the damage on the Gulf coast.

TEXASBGE2018

ColbyLang said:

Weather man, best job in the world. Wrong 100% of the time, still getting paid

When I was in college I took an elective course called "weather and climate". It was taught by one of our local tv weathermen. His
opening line in class day 1 was. "If you see me on tv saying anything and it's further than 24hrs out. I'm full of shite"

fishlessman

ColbyLang said:

Weather man, best job in the world. Wrong 100% of the time, still getting paid

they got the storm surge in tampa bay pretty spot on, within 24 feet is pretty close

TideEggHead

I checked in with my cousin in Orlando, he said it was a rough night and they lost power around 11pm or so. They had a fence come down and their road is flooded but otherwise the house, cars, etc... are in good shape! I hope everyone else is staying safe.

TideEggHead

JohnInCarolina

alaskanassasin said:

It is amazing they still have no idea where these things are going. The model I saw yesterday had it going straight north to Ohio by Sunday/Monday and now its going to shoot up the east coast.

I wouldn't say they have no idea.  They have a pretty good idea of where it is headed the next couple of days.  After that the degree of uncertainty increases considerably, and that's where some of the models start to diverge, accordingly.

Hurricane forecasting is challenging because weather is fairly chaotic on its own and when you add in lots of turbulent flow things become even more unstable.  

But take a look at this gif at the beginning and what the forecast was last Friday and through the weekend - it was pretty darn accurate.

saluki2007

Good friends parents have a place on Sanibel Island.  The causeway to get there has been destroyed.  Not sure if they will setup some sort of ferry for residents to get out there of if they will have to find private boats to access the damage.  My parents were supposed to close on a place in Naples on Gulf Shore BLVD yesterday.  They postponed their trip and closing.  The current owners just had new hurricane windows installed last week.  No better way to test them out.

SamIAm2

 Now I have no electricity at my house.  Reported the outage and will wait on resolution.  i Idea when it will be restored or how many customers are affected. Happy, happy. joy, joy.

BigreenGreg

Current track has it going over my house on 2nd landfall, thanks again FL for taking the hit. I'll find out if that backup generator I put in 2 years ago works.

Foghorn

saluki2007 said:

Good friends parents have a place on Sanibel Island.  The causeway to get there has been destroyed.  Not sure if they will setup some sort of ferry for residents to get out there of if they will have to find private boats to access the damage.  My parents were supposed to close on a place in Naples on Gulf Shore BLVD yesterday.  They postponed their trip and closing.  The current owners just had new hurricane windows installed last week.  No better way to test them out.

I just learned that one of my colleague's parents have 2 condos - one on Sanibel and one on Captiva.  They are expecting total losses, but might not know for a while because the bridge is out. 

HeavyG

TEXASBGE2018 said:

ColbyLang said:

Weather man, best job in the world. Wrong 100% of the time, still getting paid

When I was in college I took an elective course called "weather and climate". It was taught by one of our local tv weathermen. His
opening line in class day 1 was. "If you see me on tv saying anything and it's further than 24hrs out. I'm full of shite"

Funny they would say that when, in fact, these days a 7 day forecast can be accurate about 80% of the time and 5 day forecasts can be accurate about 90% of the time.

Given all the variables involved I find current weather forecasting practices to be pretty amazing.

Langner91

I miss the weather goats of Mt. Nebo.  They were never wrong!

fishlessman

HeavyG said:

TEXASBGE2018 said:

ColbyLang said:

Weather man, best job in the world. Wrong 100% of the time, still getting paid

When I was in college I took an elective course called "weather and climate". It was taught by one of our local tv weathermen. His
opening line in class day 1 was. "If you see me on tv saying anything and it's further than 24hrs out. I'm full of shite"

Funny they would say that when, in fact, these days a 7 day forecast can be accurate about 80% of the time and 5 day forecasts can be accurate about 90% of the time.

Given all the variables involved I find current weather forecasting practices to be pretty amazing.

the weather reports on the vhf on the boat is so much better than what i find online or watching the news.  its constantly updated and report in specific locations. i did not listen once on a calm blue bird day and still am not sure how i got back