OT: Major hurricane

TEXASBGE2018

HeavyG said:

TEXASBGE2018 said:

ColbyLang said:

Weather man, best job in the world. Wrong 100% of the time, still getting paid

When I was in college I took an elective course called "weather and climate". It was taught by one of our local tv weathermen. His
opening line in class day 1 was. "If you see me on tv saying anything and it's further than 24hrs out. I'm full of shite"

Funny they would say that when, in fact, these days a 7 day forecast can be accurate about 80% of the time and 5 day forecasts can be accurate about 90% of the time.

Given all the variables involved I find current weather forecasting practices to be pretty amazing.

Well this was almost 20 years ago so I'm sure forecasting has improved since then with new technology.

fishlessman

TEXASBGE2018 said:

HeavyG said:

TEXASBGE2018 said:

ColbyLang said:

Weather man, best job in the world. Wrong 100% of the time, still getting paid

When I was in college I took an elective course called "weather and climate". It was taught by one of our local tv weathermen. His
opening line in class day 1 was. "If you see me on tv saying anything and it's further than 24hrs out. I'm full of shite"

Funny they would say that when, in fact, these days a 7 day forecast can be accurate about 80% of the time and 5 day forecasts can be accurate about 90% of the time.

Given all the variables involved I find current weather forecasting practices to be pretty amazing.

Well this was almost 20 years ago so I'm sure forecasting has improved since then with new technology.

yep, sometimes they now open a window and look outside.......

Florida Grillin Girl

Dodged a bullet here, never lost power and no flooding. Just 2 hours south and it's a s**t show.

Foghorn

St. Augustine is flooded downtown:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vhvdGzCIP3o


Even though the beachfront at St. Augustine Beach, at it's peak, just had intermittent waves splashing over the seawall.

I wouldn't have thought that the city would be that much more prone to flooding than the oceanfront condos, etc, but with every major storm that proves to be the case.

BigreenGreg

It hasn’t hit Charleston yet, but you’d  never know it from every single news station.

BigreenGreg

Currently having a tequila tasting party with all my neighbors, something tells me I’m gonna sleep through it.

Foghorn

This is the most interesting video I've seen so far from this hurricane.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=al8yTiCVfro

JohnInCarolina

Foghorn said:

This is the most interesting video I've seen so far from this hurricane.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=al8yTiCVfro

Whoa.

alaskanassasin

I didn’t say hurricane forecasting was easy, apparently it’s tougher than hitting a asteroid with a refer.

lousubcap

Physics and controllable vs uncontrollable variables as you know...

JohnInCarolina

alaskanassasin said:

I didn’t say hurricane forecasting was easy, apparently it’s tougher than hitting a asteroid with a refer.

"A lot of things are easier in a vacuum." - John Candy, Spaceballs

dmchicago

JohnInCarolina said:

Foghorn said:

This is the most interesting video I've seen so far from this hurricane.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=al8yTiCVfro

Whoa.

Might I add “damn”?

JohnInCarolina

I have an uncle who lives on Pine Island.  He and my aunt had evacuated, but he managed to get to his house (by boat) yesterday.  When he arrived, one of their cars was completely underwater, as was their generator.  He feels lucky, because a next-door neighbor's house was completely destroyed.

They are going to secure the house as best they can, and pack their things up and camp out with family in New England for a bit.  He's estimating it will take at least a month before the house will be livable again. 

SamIAm2

Just checking in, no power since yesterday morning. No damage in the neighborhood. Feel lucky and glad for the mild weather.

SamIAm2

Last night dinner on the Minimax between squalls.Sorry for the sideways photos, it was bit windy over here.

nolaegghead

JohnInCarolina said:

I have an uncle who lives on Pine Island.  He and my aunt had evacuated, but he managed to get to his house (by boat) yesterday.  When he arrived, one of their cars was completely underwater, as was their generator.  He feels lucky, because a next-door neighbor's house was completely destroyed.

They are going to secure the house as best they can, and pack their things up and camp out with family in New England for a bit.  He's estimating it will take at least a month before the house will be livable again. 

If he's back in a month then he's really lucky.  I guess water didn't get *inside* the house?

GrateEggspectations

@samiam2

Glad to hear. Looks like you’re eating quite well, too. Stay safe. 

JohnInCarolina

nolaegghead said:

JohnInCarolina said:

I have an uncle who lives on Pine Island.  He and my aunt had evacuated, but he managed to get to his house (by boat) yesterday.  When he arrived, one of their cars was completely underwater, as was their generator.  He feels lucky, because a next-door neighbor's house was completely destroyed.

They are going to secure the house as best they can, and pack their things up and camp out with family in New England for a bit.  He's estimating it will take at least a month before the house will be livable again. 

If he's back in a month then he's really lucky.  I guess water didn't get *inside* the house?

*At least* a month.  His place is up on columns.  The only thing at ground level is the garage. I think he lost a shingle or two but otherwise he’s ok.  

SamIAm2

I have power and internet but Atrocious Telephone and Telegraph company cut off the landline yesterday; the will send someone out on the 13th.

Last evenings meal, cooked on the MiniMax again. Wrapped a potato tightly in AF with no additions. Found this chunk of beef at the top of the freezer. Loaded it up with lots of Sweet and Smokey Rib Rub from Wassi's meat market and let it rest while the egg came up to temperature.

Egg temp went up way too high but it didn't hurt anything, a little more well done at the ends than I wanted but better in the middle.

But that potato was just wonderful after I removed the AF, split it open and added butter, salt and pepper. And yes, I did have a cold beer with the meal that I ate outside in the cool evening with no bugs. 

lousubcap

Great looking banquet right there.  However, there is no such thing as "have a cold beer...".  They travel in pairs at a minimum. 

SamIAm2

@lousubcap - I was going to respond earlier, but I didn't want to open the other refer in the storage area until power was back and the inside temp was where it belonged. Only had the single beer left in the inside refer which I had loaded up with Ice so that was the only cold one available. I will of course need to test a couple to make sure they are palatable.

Botch

Tonight CBS' Sixty Minutes  did a story on a planned community in Ian's path called Babcock Ranch.  I thought someone had mentioned it in this thread but couldn't find it.
This community was built with low eco-impact, and weather vulnerability, in mind.  It is located ~37' above sea level, all power lines were buried, erosion-resistant native vegetation was used, building codes beefed up to handle hurricanes, and 100% solar powered.   
BR took a direct hit from Ian, although they're (iirc) 35 miles inland.  One of the founders interviewed had ridden out the storm at home; the next morning he drove around the community and found a few downed trees, and some missing roof tiles, otherwise, nothing!  Even the huge solar array field they had lost not a single panel (which I found hard to believe).  
They also discussed some of the insurance issues in Florida.  Folks need both wind, and flood, insurance (which sounds pretty damn convenient for deniability for the ins companies); their rates had been skyrocketing over the past few years; many major insurers are simply leaving FL; and only 18% of all Floridians can even afford to carry flood insurance.  I'll save any further comments on that for the "Off-Topic" section...
These stories will probably be available on CBSNews.com tomorrow, I'll post a link.  

nolaegghead

That 18% with flood insurance is more indicative of the percent of homes with mortgages requiring flood.  And some that feel they need it when it’s not required.  That drives the price up more when only a fraction of homes have it.  It should be all homes.  Discount the “never flood” people.

HeavyG

Botch said:

Tonight CBS' Sixty Minutes  did a story on a planned community in Ian's path called Babcock Ranch.  I thought someone had mentioned it in this thread but couldn't find it.
This community was built with low eco-impact, and weather vulnerability, in mind.  It is located ~37' above sea level, all power lines were buried, erosion-resistant native vegetation was used, building codes beefed up to handle hurricanes, and 100% solar powered.   
BR took a direct hit from Ian, although they're (iirc) 35 miles inland.  One of the founders interviewed had ridden out the storm at home; the next morning he drove around the community and found a few downed trees, and some missing roof tiles, otherwise, nothing!  Even the huge solar array field they had lost not a single panel (which I found hard to believe).  
They also discussed some of the insurance issues in Florida.  Folks need both wind, and flood, insurance (which sounds pretty damn convenient for deniability for the ins companies); their rates had been skyrocketing over the past few years; many major insurers are simply leaving FL; and only 18% of all Floridians can even afford to carry flood insurance.  I'll save any further comments on that for the "Off-Topic" section...
These stories will probably be available on CBSNews.com tomorrow, I'll post a link.  

"... only 18% of all Floridians can even afford to carry flood insurance. "

I find that hard to believe. The average cost of a flood insurance policy in Florida appears to be less than $700/year. The average cost of an auto insurance policy appears to be about $2500/year (source - big data).

Florida requires auto insurance coverage, they need to start requiring it for registering deeds to properties that are in flood plains. If one can afford to insure their cars they can afford to insure their house. Unfortunately there has become the expectation that federal taxpayers will bail out those that don't buy adequate insurance for their homes. That sh!t needs to stop.

Canugghead

Botch said:

Tonight CBS' Sixty Minutes  did a story on a planned community in Ian's path called Babcock Ranch.  I thought someone had mentioned it in this thread but couldn't find it.
This community was built with low eco-impact, and weather vulnerability, in mind.  It is located ~37' above sea level, all power lines were buried, erosion-resistant native vegetation was used, building codes beefed up to handle hurricanes, and 100% solar powered.   
BR took a direct hit from Ian, although they're (iirc) 35 miles inland.  One of the founders interviewed had ridden out the storm at home; the next morning he drove around the community and found a few downed trees, and some missing roof tiles, otherwise, nothing!  Even the huge solar array field they had lost not a single panel (which I found hard to believe).  
They also discussed some of the insurance issues in Florida.  Folks need both wind, and flood, insurance (which sounds pretty damn convenient for deniability for the ins companies); their rates had been skyrocketing over the past few years; many major insurers are simply leaving FL; and only 18% of all Floridians can even afford to carry flood insurance.  I'll save any further comments on that for the "Off-Topic" section...
These stories will probably be available on CBSNews.com tomorrow, I'll post a link.  

From "Global Warming - Right & Wrong" in OT:

Legume said:

http://www.cnn.com/2022/10/02/us/solar-babcock-ranch-florida-hurricane-ian-climate/index.html


I am over trying to embed links.

Interesting article, small town 12 miles from Ft Myers that was designed to be 100% solar, underground utilities, streets designed to flood rather the homes, etc.  Nobody flooded, nobody lost power, minimal damage.

kl8ton

We just received an email today from our condo that we stay at on Fort Myers Beach for many weeks in the winter. They are not planning on reopening until September 2023.