OT: Major hurricane

Gulfcoastguy

Major hurricane currently forecast to hit the Tampa Bay Florida area next Wednesday.

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2022/tropical-depression-nine?map=5day&MR=1

nolaegghead

Sharpie-free forecasts, thank the lord.  Be safe

Gulfcoastguy

I am far closer to you than to Tampa but I seem to remember a member in the Tamp area.

nolaegghead

Steve -aka thetrim

lousubcap

I believe that @Florida Grillin Girl is close by as well.  
All, stay healthy and safe out there-

TechsasJim

This is not ideal, first major storm for the GOM this season.   Wife and her friend canceled a Destin trip next weekend.  

Thoughts and prayers for all those who may be affected.   Hurricanes suck.   Been there, done that many times.   

SamIAm2

I have been tracking the forecast of that TS on Windy.com for the past week. ECMWF is the only model I have seen that puts storm winds extending across the state so we may see winds and heavy rain here. Have family in the Tampa area so I am concerned for them.

Brevard County Emergency Management here sent out notifications for location to pick up sandbags we can fill and block water intrusion. I only have two doors that could be problematic, but our house was built on the area where a high natural ridge exists so our elevation is helpful. SR-528 just to the north of us was also built on that ridge and connects Orlando to SR A1A and the tourist/vacation places like Cape Canaveral, Cocoa Beach, Satellite Beach. 

Gulfcoastguy

Moving a little West right now. 

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2022/tropical-storm-ian

ColbyLang

My forecast track has it making landfall SE of Tallahassee. Still got a loooooong way to go tho

JohnInCarolina

stay safe, friends in the Gulf

Thatgrimguy

Ugh, hopefully it doesn't keep pushing west.

RagingIrishman

I hope everyone in its path is getting prepared. Best wishes to all in its path. 

Florida Grillin Girl

I just moved off of Tampa bay in March, my first hurricane season not on the water in 17 years!

Having mandatory evacuations is no fun whatsoever, so I feel for others going through this. Hurricanes are still always unpredictable, I know this because I have evacuated into a hurricane twice, last time was Irma. Best advice is leave late after everyone else is already gone, or else it will take 6 hours to get to Orlando from Tampa.

alaskanassasin

Florida Grillin Girl said:

I just moved off of Tampa bay in March, my first hurricane season not on the water in 17 years!

Having mandatory evacuations is no fun whatsoever, so I feel for others going through this. Hurricanes are still always unpredictable, I know this because I have evacuated into a hurricane twice, last time was Irma. Best advice is leave late after everyone else is already gone, or else it will take 6 hours to get to Orlando from Tampa.

 For a mandatory evacuation do they physically go door to door and tell you to leave or is it more voluntary?

Canugghead

alaskanassasin said:

Florida Grillin Girl said:

I just moved off of Tampa bay in March, my first hurricane season not on the water in 17 years!

Having mandatory evacuations is no fun whatsoever, so I feel for others going through this. Hurricanes are still always unpredictable, I know this because I have evacuated into a hurricane twice, last time was Irma. Best advice is leave late after everyone else is already gone, or else it will take 6 hours to get to Orlando from Tampa.

 For a mandatory evacuation do they physically go door to door and tell you to leave or is it more voluntary?

Don’t have details yet, early sketchy reports say one of the two women swept into sea by Fiona was taking shelter in the basement of her house that got hit. Have to wonder if she was told to evacuate.

Gulfcoastguy

now going WNW so it might stick East of Destin. Aiming up into Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. Remember the extensive flooding last time that happened.

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2022/tropical-storm-ian?map=5day&MR=1

HeavyG

alaskanassasin said:

Florida Grillin Girl said:

I just moved off of Tampa bay in March, my first hurricane season not on the water in 17 years!

Having mandatory evacuations is no fun whatsoever, so I feel for others going through this. Hurricanes are still always unpredictable, I know this because I have evacuated into a hurricane twice, last time was Irma. Best advice is leave late after everyone else is already gone, or else it will take 6 hours to get to Orlando from Tampa.

 For a mandatory evacuation do they physically go door to door and tell you to leave or is it more voluntary?

In our area they have in some areas gone door to door to tell people they need to leave but they won't physically remove you. They just make it clear that if you don't leave that if you run into trouble and try to call for help that they will not make any effort to assist until after the storm has passed.

ColbyLang

This is by far the most accurate forecasting track app I’ve used. 

SamIAm2

HeavyG said:

alaskanassasin said:

Florida Grillin Girl said:

I just moved off of Tampa bay in March, my first hurricane season not on the water in 17 years!

Having mandatory evacuations is no fun whatsoever, so I feel for others going through this. Hurricanes are still always unpredictable, I know this because I have evacuated into a hurricane twice, last time was Irma. Best advice is leave late after everyone else is already gone, or else it will take 6 hours to get to Orlando from Tampa.

 For a mandatory evacuation do they physically go door to door and tell you to leave or is it more voluntary?

In our area they have in some areas gone door to door to tell people they need to leave but they won't physically remove you. They just make it clear that if you don't leave that if you run into trouble and try to call for help that they will not make any effort to assist until after the storm has passed.

@HeavG - That has been the message law enforcement here has been using post Andrew. 

Gulfcoastguy

Just before Katrina some people didn’t want to evacuate. Law enforcement handed them a sharpie and asked them to write their social security number. They told them that they would likely be found away from their home, stark naked, and beat to a pulp. Some of those old ladies then decided to evacuate.

Florida Grillin Girl

@alaskanassasin -The police came and put an evacuation notice on my door, also stating if you do not choose to evacuate, do not call 911, because there will be no one to come to help for any reason, health problems, etc. Half of my neighborhood decided to stay. I left and went to Winter Haven, FL, (center of the state), which was hit hard by Irma. My home had no electricity for 5 days without even a direct hit from the storm. 

Botch

alaskanassasin said:
For a mandatory evacuation do they physically go door to door and tell you to leave or is it more voluntary? 

I'm curious to see how this plays out in this post-anti-mask  world country.  

lousubcap

My only quasi-evacuation experience as I was in Kings Bay, GA (just over the line from Jacksonville) was impacted by the Irma evacuation of September 2017.  I departed the scene on Friday September 8th, around 5:30 AM, headed north on I-95.  The hurricane was supposed to hit (and did mid morning) on Sep 10.  However all lanes of I-95  (yes north and south) were northbound.  Traffic was bumper to bumper up 95 and then west on I-26 for a good 6 hours, rolling at a speed of 40 MPH.  The rest stops had overflow cars and lots of porta-potties for the surge.  
By the time I cleared the traffic I was a good 3 plus hours behind the "normal" speed of advance.  Got to Knoxville, TN when I should have been home.
Glad I don't have to consider/deal with that on a frequent basis.  
MotherNature is a B!tch and takes no prisoners.  

alaskanassasin

I was just curious. You all be safe down there.

GrateEggspectations

SamIAm2 said:

HeavyG said:

alaskanassasin said:

Florida Grillin Girl said:

I just moved off of Tampa bay in March, my first hurricane season not on the water in 17 years!

Having mandatory evacuations is no fun whatsoever, so I feel for others going through this. Hurricanes are still always unpredictable, I know this because I have evacuated into a hurricane twice, last time was Irma. Best advice is leave late after everyone else is already gone, or else it will take 6 hours to get to Orlando from Tampa.

 For a mandatory evacuation do they physically go door to door and tell you to leave or is it more voluntary?

In our area they have in some areas gone door to door to tell people they need to leave but they won't physically remove you. They just make it clear that if you don't leave that if you run into trouble and try to call for help that they will not make any effort to assist until after the storm has passed.

@HeavG - That has been the message law enforcement here has been using post Andrew. 

Going in for the assist. 

@HeavyG

SamIAm2

@GrateEggspectations - Pre Andrew some folks would ask the one final question for those adamant about not leaving; @Botch - since you asked how it would play out in the post-anti-mask country - the question was "Who is your next of kin?" 

Gulfcoastguy

Projection is easing back to the East. Somewhere North of Tampa on Floridas West coast. It will pass slow enough by Tampa to back a lot of water into the Bay though.

fishlessman

alaskanassasin said:

Florida Grillin Girl said:

I just moved off of Tampa bay in March, my first hurricane season not on the water in 17 years!

Having mandatory evacuations is no fun whatsoever, so I feel for others going through this. Hurricanes are still always unpredictable, I know this because I have evacuated into a hurricane twice, last time was Irma. Best advice is leave late after everyone else is already gone, or else it will take 6 hours to get to Orlando from Tampa.

 For a mandatory evacuation do they physically go door to door and tell you to leave or is it more voluntary?

up in maine they came to my door about 3 in the am, lights on, sirens blasting to evacuate. theres a tiny hydro dam that powers 1 small farm house, maybe 20 swimming pools worth of water, a half mile upstream, a mile wide of flood plain. i told them to get off my property.....idiots, a puddle was going to take down the house. i can understand evacuations when a hurricane comes thru down south, but up here its just people freaking out and others thinking about going out to fish.

TideEggHead

Hope any eggheads in the way stay safe. We will be watching this one close, we have family in Orlando and we are supposed to be in Panama City this weekend.

johnmitchell

Although we are not in the direct line of fire here in NC. I was glad to hear my Generator come on for its weekly 20 min exercise. Everyone in Ian’s path stay safe!

Legume

I think DeSantis is going to offer to evacuate everyone to Martha’s Vineyard.