OT subject but worth a main-stream read- OT News Feeds...

Eoin

Lots of good threads on Twitter about Russian logistics and how they seem doomed to fail (even if they manage to flatten entire cities in the course of failing).

See @PhillipsPOBrien thread and referenced threads / documents for in depth coverage.

lousubcap

A quick update regarding Russia-Ukraine talks:

Russia is demanding that Ukraine ceases military action, changes its constitution to ensure neutrality, acknowledges Crimea as Russian territory and recognises the separatist republic of Donetsk and Lugansk, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said. According to Peskov, Russia has told Ukraine it is ready to halt its military action “in a moment” if Kyiv met its conditions. The outlining of these demands comes as Russian delegations prepare to start the third round of talks aimed at ending Russia’s war against Ukraine. Reuters reports.

Ukraine is not willing to compromise on its territorial integrity but is open to discussing “non- NATO models” for its future, in a wider forum, one of its negotiators has said. “The response that we are getting from the NATO countries is that they are not ready to even discuss having us in NATO, not for the next period of five or 10 years,” the negotiator said in remarks published by Fox News. “We are ready to discuss some non-NATO models. For example, there could be direct guarantees by different countries like the U.S., China, U.K., maybe Germany and France,” the negotiator added. Reuters reports.

lousubcap

And a long read here:
https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2022/03/putin-lost-cyber-and-information-war-abroad-will-he-lose-home/362794/  

Botch

Interesting comparison from Robert Reich's newsletter this morning:
 

What's the difference between Russian and American oligarchs?

Actually, not all that much. Which means it's really hard for sanctions to stick

Robert Reich6 hr ago

We’re sanctioning Russian oligarchs up the wazoo, hoping it’s a way to get Putin to stop his deadly attack on Ukraine. But for this tactic to work (1) the U.S. and our allies must be able to locate and tie up Russian oligarchic wealth, and (2) Russian oligarchs must have enough power to stop Putin. Let’s take them one at a time: 

Can we locate and tie up the wealth of Russian oligarchs?

Anecdotally, sanctions on the oligarchs appear to be working. Last Sunday, billionaire industrialist Oleg Deripaska (on the U.S. sanctions list) and banker Mikhail Fridman (on the EU’s) both publicly urged an end to Putin’s war. Billionaire businessman Roman Abramovich has put his British soccer club up for sale and vowed to donate the proceeds to “all victims of the war in Ukraine.” Banker and entrepreneur Oleg Tinkov told his 634,000 Instagram followers last week that “innocent people are dying in Ukraine now, every day, this is unthinkable and unacceptable.”

But are these sanctions really biting? This is where a comparison of Russian oligarchs with American oligarchs comes in. 

While Russian oligarchs (Russia’s richest 0.01 percent) have hidden an estimated $200 billion offshore (over half of their financial wealth), American oligarchs — America’s 765 billionaires — have hidden $1.2 trillion (about 4 percent of their wealth), mostly to avoid paying taxes on it. 

Take a look at this chart. If you are rightfully repulsed by Putin’s oligarchy, do not let the American oligarchy off the hook. 

While American oligarchs park their income and wealth in tax havens such as the Cayman Islands, Russian oligarchs have hidden their most valuable assets in the United States and Europe. The reason they do so is telling: Western democracies follow the rule of law. Under such laws, before a government can seize property it must follow lengthy and elaborate legal processes. As a result, American and European governments are finding their hands tied in actually taking control of the assets of Russian oligarchs. 

American law makes it difficult even to discover what Russian oligarchs own in the United States because they’ve hidden their assets behind complex trusts and shell corporations. American laws governing taxes, corporations, transportation, and banking are wonderfully convenient for the world’s oligarchs. One out of every six aircraft in the United States, for example, is registered through trusts, Delaware corporations, and even post office box addresses, making it almost impossible to discover their true owners. 

This isn’t an argument against sanctioning Russian oligarchs. It’s just that we need to be clear-eyed about how difficult it is to do so.

Do Russia’s oligarchs have enough political clout in Russia to stop Putin’s aggression, or perhaps even depose him?

American oligarchs have enormous political clout. In the 2012 presidential election (the most recent for which we have detailed data on individual contributions), the richest 0.01 percent of Americans (that is, the richest 1 percent of the richest 1 percent) accounted for 40 percent of all campaign contributions. (See the graph below.)

What have American oligarchs got out of these campaign contributions? The lowest tax rates on the highest incomes in over a generation — and the lowest among all wealthy nations. They’ve also gotten an IRS so starved of resources it’s barely able to enforce the law.

Russian oligarchs who have pledged loyalty to Putin arguably have less political power in Russia than do American oligarchs in the U.S. In Putin’s Russia, power is exercised by a narrow circle of officials and generals appointed by Putin, whom he has drawn largely from the former KGB. According to several Russian specialists I’ve spoken with over the last few days, this circle has become very small in recent months, now numbering perhaps a half dozen. 

We should use whatever means at our disposal to make Vladimir Putin end the brutal war he started. But it is proving difficult to use sanctions on specificoligarchs to get Putin to stop. Perhaps we should be more ambitious. My Berkeley colleague Gabriel Zucman recommends that the United States and the European Union freeze all offshore holdings of Russian nationals in excess of $10 million. This would affect about 10,000 to 20,000 Russians who have benefitted the most from Putin’s rule.

Meanwhile, blanket sanctions against the Russian economy are having an effect. Over the past week they have caused the ruble to collapse and decimated Russian markets. But the major burden has fallen on ordinary Russians, many of whom have already suffered from Putin’s brutal regime. 

As we’ve seen in North Korea and Iran, dictatorships don’t depend on popular approval. In fact, widespread hardship can lead to even more repression and violence. We should remind ourselves that Putin is not synonymous with the Russian people. Xenophobia of whatever form has no place in the fight against vicious authoritarianism.

lousubcap

Poland and jets to Ukraine-where it is right now:
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44608/poland-still-isnt-interested-in-transferring-its-mig-29s-to-ukraine

Ozzie_Isaac

Putin is getting very frustrated that Ukrainians keep killing his invading force.  This is akin to a rapist getting shot by a victim and then suing the victim.

Gulfcoastguy

Check out some of the recent articles on Elon Musk. He opened Starlink in Ukraine and shipped in truckloads of dishes along with installation instructions ( it’s okay to cover the dish with a camouflage net, it will still work) , in discussion on shipping solar panels and battery backups) , made Superchargers free for Ukrainian Teslas, published Camp Mode for Ukrainian Teslas, told Germany to reopen their nuclear power plants.

dmchicago

Eoin

dmchicago said:

Some pictures today of troops being transported standing in the back of tipper trucks.

lousubcap

Some crude oil news here:

"In an unprecedented, major development on day 13 of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the president of the United States is expected to announce a ban on Russian oil imports, in televised remarks this morning from the White House. Catch it live via C-Span, here.

What to expect: "The U.S. will be acting alone, but in close consultation with European allies, who are more dependent on Russian energy supplies," the Associated Press previews. Why go alone? "European nations have said they plan to reduce their reliance on Russia for their energy needs, but filling the void without crippling their economies will likely take some time," according to AP. 

In context: "About 8% of U.S. imports of oil and refined products, or about 672,000 barrels a day, came from Russia last year," the Wall Street Journal reports. "Of that, Russia's crude made up roughly 3% of the nation's imports, about 200,000 barrels a day." Meanwhile, "The U.S. national average for a gallon of gasoline soared 45 cents a gallon in the past week and topped $4.06 on Monday," AP reports. 

"We are going to see increased gas prices here in the United States," Democratic Sen. Chris Coons told CNN on Tuesday. "In Europe, they will see dramatic increases in prices. That's the cost of standing up for freedom and standing alongside the Ukrainian people, but it's going to cost us."

According to new U.S. polling data: 71% of "Americans are ready to put a chokehold on Russia's key financial lifeblood, oil, no matter what the consequences are at the pump," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy."

Botch

Mm-hmm.  
 
https://www.newsweek.com/marjorie-taylor-greene-bought-defense-stock-day-before-slamming-profitable-war-ukraine-russia-1685780?fbclid=IwAR1Z4YCEr-aMLU7dfUMsP9Rodp4W-OTbdQpmZWSRyY6DV3eWHgvyQqQMrw4
 

Canugghead

savvy investor

lousubcap

I don't think she has a limit on how low she will go in support of her own world.  

nolaegghead

She's a number one supporter of herself.

Ozzie_Isaac

Not the Onion, real tweet.

lousubcap

@Ozzie_Isaac - I have read that above from other sources.  Russia (aka Vlad) is in a trick sack with no clean way out.  He needs an exist ramp (that right now does not exist) but if offered will likely not take.  The ego and trying to establish his position as the great restorer of the Russian empire are over-arching.  That does not bode well for any near-term or reasonable resolution.  

Botch

Saw something very disturbing a couple days ago, something I wasn't aware of (thank you again american school system).  
During a war that I'd never heard of, stalin's russian troops had invaded Ukraine (can't remember the time period) and they went door-to-door, stealing everyone's food and cutting off supply lines, and slowly starving 5 million Ukrainians to death.  And soon after, the german nazis killed another 4 million Ukrainians.  
I cannot wrap my head around this, nor the fact that I'd never heard of this.  

Gulfcoastguy

Botch said:

Saw something very disturbing a couple days ago, something I wasn't aware of (thank you again american school system).  
During a war that I'd never heard of, stalin's russian troops had invaded Ukraine (can't remember the time period) and they went door-to-door, stealing everyone's food and cutting off supply lines, and slowly starving 5 million Ukrainians to death.  And soon after, the german nazis killed another 4 million Ukrainians.  
I cannot wrap my head around this, nor the fact that I'd never heard of this.  

That would have been in the 1930’s. Russia had annexed Ukraine in the old imperial times. When Stalin took power they wanted to get rid of individual peasant farms and just have vast collective farms. The state would take all of the wheat and return enough flour to feed everyone without unseemly profit. Well they took to much wheat out of the area and that was combined with poor harvests. So a minimum of 3 million Ukrainians starved to death. Ukrainians haven’t forgotten. 

Eoin

Gulfcoastguy said:

Botch said:

Saw something very disturbing a couple days ago, something I wasn't aware of (thank you again american school system).  
During a war that I'd never heard of, stalin's russian troops had invaded Ukraine (can't remember the time period) and they went door-to-door, stealing everyone's food and cutting off supply lines, and slowly starving 5 million Ukrainians to death.  And soon after, the german nazis killed another 4 million Ukrainians.  
I cannot wrap my head around this, nor the fact that I'd never heard of this.  

That would have been in the 1930’s. Russia had annexed Ukraine in the old imperial times. When Stalin took power they wanted to get rid of individual peasant farms and just have vast collective farms. The state would take all of the wheat and return enough flour to feed everyone without unseemly profit. Well they took to much wheat out of the area and that was combined with poor harvests. So a minimum of 3 million Ukrainians starved to death. Ukrainians haven’t forgotten. 

See also us Brits and the Irish famine.

Eoin

lousubcap said:

@Ozzie_Isaac - I have read that above from other sources.  Russia (aka Vlad) is in a trick sack with no clean way out.  He needs an exist ramp (that right now does not exist) but if offered will likely not take.  The ego and trying to establish his position as the great restorer of the Russian empire are over-arching.  That does not bode well for any near-term or reasonable resolution.  

There are some very interesting commentators about Russia on Twitter.  A good thread on how the Russian 'mafia' economy works under Putin was posted earlier today can be found if you look for @kamilkazani

Kayak

Botch said:

Saw something very disturbing a couple days ago, something I wasn't aware of (thank you again american school system).  
During a war that I'd never heard of, stalin's russian troops had invaded Ukraine (can't remember the time period) and they went door-to-door, stealing everyone's food and cutting off supply lines, and slowly starving 5 million Ukrainians to death.  And soon after, the german nazis killed another 4 million Ukrainians.  
I cannot wrap my head around this, nor the fact that I'd never heard of this.  

I don't think there was any war or invasion, but they certainly starved a bunch of Ukrainians intentionally due to incompetence and bias against them. The event is called the "Holodomor" - which roughly translates as 'murder by starving'. There is a lot of disagreement over the how's and why's, and the event is used for political one-upsmanship today. That area, like a lot of areas over history, had a lot of killin' in its past. In fact, it wasn't long afterwards that those Ukrainians who really hated the Soviets joined with the Nazi's and helped kill off a million Jews. Clean hands are in short supply everywhere in this world.

lousubcap

From a defense feed today:
"Developing: Electricity to Ukraine's Chernobyl nuclear plant has been severed, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Wednesday after the country's state-run energy firm, Ukrenegro, announced the development on Telegram and Facebook. Russian forces seized the facility, located north of Kyiv and close to the border with Belarus, on Feb. 24. More than 200 Ukrainian "technical personnel and guards" have been stuck at the facility since the Russians took over, and "the same shift has been on duty" ever since, the International Atomic Energy Agency said in a statement Tuesday.
"Reserve diesel generators have a 48-hour capacity," Kuleba warned on Wednesday. "After that, cooling systems of the storage facility for spent nuclear fuel will stop, making radiation leaks imminent," which is why Kuleba is calling "on the international community to urgently demand Russia to cease fire and allow repair units to restore power supply."
Across Ukraine, "eight of the country's 15 reactors were operating" as of Tuesday, the IAEA said in its statement. That includes two reactors "at the Zaporizhzhya NPP controlled since last week by Russian forces." And the latest indications suggest that radiation levels at the sites are "normal." More from the IAEA, here."

JohnInCarolina

lousubcap said:

From a defense feed today:
"Developing: Electricity to Ukraine's Chernobyl nuclear plant has been severed, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Wednesday after the country's state-run energy firm, Ukrenegro, announced the development on Telegram and Facebook. Russian forces seized the facility, located north of Kyiv and close to the border with Belarus, on Feb. 24. More than 200 Ukrainian "technical personnel and guards" have been stuck at the facility since the Russians took over, and "the same shift has been on duty" ever since, the International Atomic Energy Agency said in a statement Tuesday.
"Reserve diesel generators have a 48-hour capacity," Kuleba warned on Wednesday. "After that, cooling systems of the storage facility for spent nuclear fuel will stop, making radiation leaks imminent," which is why Kuleba is calling "on the international community to urgently demand Russia to cease fire and allow repair units to restore power supply."

Yeah, that's not good.  

Botch

Sh*t.  

fishlessman

 chernobyl weather report has the wind going north to northeast over the next ten days, wonder if putin watches the weather reports

dmchicago

In Russia, weather report watch you. 

nolaegghead

This is how we fix in mother Russia....

JohnInCarolina

http://twitter.com/KT_So_It_Goes/status/1501652407176077312?s=20&t=NuBYhlb2ALC3-0OGnxpUKA

lousubcap

A good read here about the war in Ukraine and some thoughts about how it came to be:
https://view.newsletters.cnn.com/messages/16468650183845b60c3c596c4/raw?utm_term=16468650183845b60c3c596c4&utm_source=cnn_Fareed's+Global+Briefing,+March+9,+2022&utm_medium=email&bt_ee=4oEsUeK1eLKqwAVXh5fXGBhOoacL8LH8aXkdm3gK1Q+0+VRrqu/Vpj2DNg/Uu3PD&bt_ts=1646865018386

JohnInCarolina