Hurricane Michael

nolaegghead

TEXASBGE2018 said:

frazzdaddy said:

TEXASBGE2018 said:

I'm still amazed that on Sunday and Monday forecasters were still saying "oh this will be a mild cat 2 when it hits". How after the cluster F's of Katrina and Sandy have we not invested more money into better forecasting models and research. Or is this simply just a matter of we can never truly figure out mother nature. I really really don't want this to turn into a political commentary, I'm just honestly curious. So please let's keep it civil.

The prediction models are getting better and better. The HWRF hurricane model had a good handle on this storm from the get go. Because of the extremely quick,late and major intensification it predicted, not sure it was taken seriously. This one will be a big time case study. 

I agree with this. It just amazes me that these models didn’t pick up earlier on the “late major intensification” it’s the gulf. It’s practically bathwater temp all the time. I would think any model would include the assumption that if it enters the gulf the intensity is going to increase exponentially. 

I suppose if by over-simplifying everything through sweeping generalizations helps one cope with life, you've got it figured out

nolaegghead

Try to figure out why a CAT 2 storm (hitting land) can have over twice the storm surge of this borderline CAT 4/5....

JohnInCarolina

If ( hurricane.eye->InGulf() )
  hurricane.intensity->GoExponential();
end

bgebrent

Impossible to figure out rapid intensification although more likely now with warmer ocean temps.  This is gonna be bad.

DMW

JohnInCarolina said:

If ( hurricane.eye->InGulf() )
  hurricane.intensity->GoExponential();
end

Surface water temps might factor in there somewhere. Wonder why surface water temps are what they are in mid October?

bgebrent

This is gonna be bad.  Godspeed all those who rode it out.

DMW

bgebrent said:

This is gonna be bad.  Godspeed all those who rode it out.

During hurricane Florence I was of the opinion that those that chose to ride it out in evacuation zones were just dumb and deserved what they got. And then I had a smack me in the face moment when it was mentioned that many in that area didn't have the financial means to get out of dodge. I sincerely hope that those who rode it out because they had no other option are OK.  

Gulfcoastguy

Yep you are going to spend $800.00 or more to evacuate if you don't have somebody that you can stay with. Within a very few years my parents will be gone and there won't be anybody inland where I can go ride it out with. Then you have got to get back as soon as possible. If the house got as little as 4 inches of water in it you have got to get it dried out quickly. Insulation wicks the moisture up behind the drywall and that is the beginning of mold. Still it is better to charge up the credit cards than try to breath water.

nolaegghead

I don't understand why people just don't use common sense and get their family to pay for a good school, get a cushy job through one of dad's golf partners, and then afford to evacuate with a quick trip out to the Bahamas (aka "slumming it") with the same American Express Platinum card they had when they paid their frat dues.

Probably if they can't, they're lazy.

(takes a bow, knows all)

Thankyou all,

--NOLABGE2018

nolaegghead

TEXASBGE2018 said:

frazzdaddy said:

TEXASBGE2018 said:

I'm still amazed that on Sunday and Monday forecasters were still saying "oh this will be a mild cat 2 when it hits". How after the cluster F's of Katrina and Sandy have we not invested more money into better forecasting models and research. Or is this simply just a matter of we can never truly figure out mother nature. I really really don't want this to turn into a political commentary, I'm just honestly curious. So please let's keep it civil.

The prediction models are getting better and better. The HWRF hurricane model had a good handle on this storm from the get go. Because of the extremely quick,late and major intensification it predicted, not sure it was taken seriously. This one will be a big time case study. 

I agree with this. It just amazes me that these models didn’t pick up earlier on the “late major intensification” it’s the gulf. It’s practically bathwater temp all the time. I would think any model would include the assumption that if it enters the gulf the intensity is going to increase exponentially. 

Seriously dude, all those scientists that model weather probably completely forgot the gulf is like total bathwater and that makes storms, like, exponentially grow and stuff.  Also, send an email of this obvious fact to Jeff Masters, he probably overlooked the bathwater temperatures thing all these years.  It's brilliant.  Maybe you will win an Emmy or Novell Peace Prize or something.  This will shake up the world of so-called science people who lie just to get grants and stuff.

TEXASBGE2018

nolaegghead said:

TEXASBGE2018 said:

frazzdaddy said:

TEXASBGE2018 said:

I'm still amazed that on Sunday and Monday forecasters were still saying "oh this will be a mild cat 2 when it hits". How after the cluster F's of Katrina and Sandy have we not invested more money into better forecasting models and research. Or is this simply just a matter of we can never truly figure out mother nature. I really really don't want this to turn into a political commentary, I'm just honestly curious. So please let's keep it civil.

The prediction models are getting better and better. The HWRF hurricane model had a good handle on this storm from the get go. Because of the extremely quick,late and major intensification it predicted, not sure it was taken seriously. This one will be a big time case study. 

I agree with this. It just amazes me that these models didn’t pick up earlier on the “late major intensification” it’s the gulf. It’s practically bathwater temp all the time. I would think any model would include the assumption that if it enters the gulf the intensity is going to increase exponentially. 

Seriously dude, all those scientists that model weather probably completely forgot the gulf is like total bathwater and that makes storms, like, exponentially grow and stuff.  Also, send an email of this obvious fact to Jeff Masters, he probably overlooked the bathwater temperatures thing all these years.  It's brilliant.  Maybe you will win an Emmy or Novell Peace Prize or something.  This will shake up the world of so-called science people who lie just to get grants and stuff.

Is it just an itch you have to scratch to be an ahole all the time? I was asking a legit question because I don’t know the answer. I’m asking why we don’t spend more money on research and modeling of these hurricanes so that maybe we can give people more advanced warning. I’m advocating for spending money to save people’s lives. That should be right up your alley. Good luck at your Brisket Camp next week Nola.

frazzdaddy

TEXASBGE2018 said:

frazzdaddy said:

TEXASBGE2018 said:

I'm still amazed that on Sunday and Monday forecasters were still saying "oh this will be a mild cat 2 when it hits". How after the cluster F's of Katrina and Sandy have we not invested more money into better forecasting models and research. Or is this simply just a matter of we can never truly figure out mother nature. I really really don't want this to turn into a political commentary, I'm just honestly curious. So please let's keep it civil.

The prediction models are getting better and better. The HWRF hurricane model had a good handle on this storm from the get go. Because of the extremely quick,late and major intensification it predicted, not sure it was taken seriously. This one will be a big time case study. 

I agree with this. It just amazes me that these models didn’t pick up earlier on the “late major intensification” it’s the gulf. It’s practically bathwater temp all the time. I would think any model would include the assumption that if it enters the gulf the intensity is going to increase exponentially. 

You missed my point. There are many factors that account for the RI that occurred with this storm. The unseasonably warm shelf water was a small part. Timing with the jet stream and the storm turning away from the shear were bigger factors. There will be several papers written. You should read those.

GrillSgt

Ask your Der Leader. NOAA budget drastically cut and 20% proposed cut for 2019. 

https://www.aip.org/fyi/2017/trump-budget-cuts-noaa-16-slashes-research-funding-even-deeper 

TEXASBGE2018

frazzdaddy said:

TEXASBGE2018 said:

frazzdaddy said:

TEXASBGE2018 said:

I'm still amazed that on Sunday and Monday forecasters were still saying "oh this will be a mild cat 2 when it hits". How after the cluster F's of Katrina and Sandy have we not invested more money into better forecasting models and research. Or is this simply just a matter of we can never truly figure out mother nature. I really really don't want this to turn into a political commentary, I'm just honestly curious. So please let's keep it civil.

The prediction models are getting better and better. The HWRF hurricane model had a good handle on this storm from the get go. Because of the extremely quick,late and major intensification it predicted, not sure it was taken seriously. This one will be a big time case study. 

I agree with this. It just amazes me that these models didn’t pick up earlier on the “late major intensification” it’s the gulf. It’s practically bathwater temp all the time. I would think any model would include the assumption that if it enters the gulf the intensity is going to increase exponentially. 

You missed my point. There are many factors that account for the RI that occurred with this storm. The unseasonably warm shelf water was a small part. Timing with the jet stream and the storm turning away from the shear were bigger factors. There will be several papers written. You should read those.

I would love to read them. I don’t fully understand this subject but I do remember hearing during Katrina and last year when the hurricane hit Houston that they said anytime one enters the gulf it almost always intensifies because of the currents and the warm water in the gulf. So I would be glad to read up on it. 

fishlessman

nolaegghead said:

I don't understand why people just don't use common sense and get their family to pay for a good school, get a cushy job through one of dad's golf partners, and then afford to evacuate with a quick trip out to the Bahamas (aka "slumming it") with the same American Express Platinum card they had when they paid their frat dues.

Probably if they can't, they're lazy.

(takes a bow, knows all)

Thankyou all,

--NOLABGE2018

you have it all wrong, its those lazy bastards that sit on their ass all day drinking beer when they could be going out  finding their wife a second job

GATraveller

bgebrent said:

This is gonna be bad.  Godspeed all those who rode it out.

I've watched them interview quite a few people who decided to ride this one out and everyone of them stated they'll never make that mistake again. 

FlyOverCountry

People forget that E equals MC an the Gulf is shaped jus like a big C so it makes cents that the energy is big.  Duh!

Not to mention that as the storm gets older it dies out and does less jus like rap artists.  Young MC had a couple of big hits but as Old MC he hasn’t done much.

DMW

FlyOverCountry said:

People forget that E equals MC an the Gulf is shaped jus like a big C so it makes cents that the energy is big.  Duh!

Not to mention that as the storm gets older it dies out and does less jus like rap artists.  Young MC had a couple of big hits but as Old MC he hasn’t done much.

Thanks for this commentary, I feel dumber now. 

FlyOverCountry

DMW said:

FlyOverCountry said:

People forget that E equals MC an the Gulf is shaped jus like a big C so it makes cents that the energy is big.  Duh!

Not to mention that as the storm gets older it dies out and does less jus like rap artists.  Young MC had a couple of big hits but as Old MC he hasn’t done much.

Thanks for this commentary, I feel dumber now. 

Your welcome!  My nana always said “You can’t fix stupid!”  I remember her saying that to me a lot growing up, in between the beatings.

NorthPilot06

If you want to look it up, weather forecasting is based upon non-linear differential equations.  Minor changes in inputs can drive exponentially larger changes in forecasts as you move into the future - that's why extended forecasts usually aren't right.

And that's when you're dealing with simple elements like frontal boundaries, airborne moisture content, and jetstreams driving minor convective activity.  The complexities are much larger when talking about large-scale systems.

TEXASBGE2018

NorthPilot06 said:

If you want to look it up, weather forecasting is based upon non-linear differential equations.  Minor changes in inputs can drive exponentially larger changes in forecasts as you move into the future - that's why extended forecasts usually aren't right.

And that's when you're dealing with simple elements like frontal boundaries, airborne moisture content, and jetstreams driving minor convective activity.  The complexities are much larger when talking about large-scale systems.

Thanks for your input.

Gulfcoastguy

FlyOverCountry said:

DMW said:

FlyOverCountry said:

People forget that E equals MC an the Gulf is shaped jus like a big C so it makes cents that the energy is big.  Duh!

Not to mention that as the storm gets older it dies out and does less jus like rap artists.  Young MC had a couple of big hits but as Old MC he hasn’t done much.

Thanks for this commentary, I feel dumber now. 

Your welcome!  My nana always said “You can’t fix stupid!”  I remember her saying that to me a lot growing up, in between the beatings.

Was it one too many or one too few beatings?

JohnInCarolina

NorthPilot06 said:

If you want to look it up, weather forecasting is based upon non-linear differential equations.  

Coupled systems of nonlinear PDEs, often with stochastic coefficients, to be precise.

TEXASBGE2018

JohnInCarolina said:

NorthPilot06 said:

If you want to look it up, weather forecasting is based upon non-linear differential equations.  

Coupled systems of nonlinear PDEs, often with stochastic coefficients, to be precise.

Man, I bet you are a killer in the bedroom.

TEXASBGE2018

TEXASBGE2018 said:

JohnInCarolina said:

NorthPilot06 said:

If you want to look it up, weather forecasting is based upon non-linear differential equations.  

Coupled systems of nonlinear PDEs, often with stochastic coefficients, to be precise.

Man, I bet you are a killer in the bedroom.

Sorry I hit post too quick. I meant killer of arousal.

nolaegghead

TEXASBGE2018 said:

nolaegghead said:

TEXASBGE2018 said:

frazzdaddy said:

TEXASBGE2018 said:

I'm still amazed that on Sunday and Monday forecasters were still saying "oh this will be a mild cat 2 when it hits". How after the cluster F's of Katrina and Sandy have we not invested more money into better forecasting models and research. Or is this simply just a matter of we can never truly figure out mother nature. I really really don't want this to turn into a political commentary, I'm just honestly curious. So please let's keep it civil.

The prediction models are getting better and better. The HWRF hurricane model had a good handle on this storm from the get go. Because of the extremely quick,late and major intensification it predicted, not sure it was taken seriously. This one will be a big time case study. 

I agree with this. It just amazes me that these models didn’t pick up earlier on the “late major intensification” it’s the gulf. It’s practically bathwater temp all the time. I would think any model would include the assumption that if it enters the gulf the intensity is going to increase exponentially. 

Seriously dude, all those scientists that model weather probably completely forgot the gulf is like total bathwater and that makes storms, like, exponentially grow and stuff.  Also, send an email of this obvious fact to Jeff Masters, he probably overlooked the bathwater temperatures thing all these years.  It's brilliant.  Maybe you will win an Emmy or Novell Peace Prize or something.  This will shake up the world of so-called science people who lie just to get grants and stuff.

Is it just an itch you have to scratch to be an ahole all the time? I was asking a legit question because I don’t know the answer. I’m asking why we don’t spend more money on research and modeling of these hurricanes so that maybe we can give people more advanced warning. I’m advocating for spending money to save people’s lives. That should be right up your alley. Good luck at your Brisket Camp next week Nola.

Danger, Will Robinson!  Squirt gun shots across the bow!  pew pew pew!!!

While the interwez is mostly really serious bidniss, and it's hard to understand tone, I'm just screwing wif ya, Ted.

TEXASBGE2018

nolaegghead said:

Danger, Will Robinson!  Squirt gun shots across the bow!  pew pew pew!!!

While the interwez is mostly really serious bidniss, and it's hard to understand tone, I'm just screwing wif ya, Ted.

You always screw with people. That's the problem. It's hard to tell when you are serious, or being a serious a$$hat .

nolaegghead

TEXASBGE2018 said:

nolaegghead said:

Danger, Will Robinson!  Squirt gun shots across the bow!  pew pew pew!!!

While the interwez is mostly really serious bidniss, and it's hard to understand tone, I'm just screwing wif ya, Ted.

You always screw with people. That's the problem. It's hard to tell when you are serious, or being a serious a$$hat .

As a peace offering, because I'm a generous person, I have a couple Eggtobet fest tickets that I will happily give you for free.

TEXASBGE2018

nolaegghead said:

As a peace offering, because I'm a generous person, I have a couple Eggtobet fest tickets that I will happily give you for free.

Do these "Eggtobet fest" tickets come with a Signature SGH Shaving kit?

nolaegghead

TEXASBGE2018 said:

nolaegghead said:

As a peace offering, because I'm a generous person, I have a couple Eggtobet fest tickets that I will happily give you for free.

Do these "Eggtobet fest" tickets come with a Signature SGH Shaving kit?

Nope, you'll have to talk to @SGH