Hurricane Michael

Gulfcoastguy

At 155 mph sustained winds, this will start to disintegrate most homes. Don't forget the 175 mph gust also. At least it looks like it is tracking fast enough to travel relatively quickly over the area unlike Florence which took it's sweet time while dumping rain.

HeavyG

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1050083277640478720

GATraveller

Saying the Mexico Beach area hardest hit - leaving only foundations.  No words.  

TEXASBGE2018

We have visited St. George Island a few times and stayed right there on the beach. Last I heard there were 125mph sustained winds registering between there and the Air force base northwest. That whole area is just flat marsh. I would imagine that entire area will become swampland very shortly and stay that way for awhile. Good Luck to all in the area and stay safe.

TideEggHead

NOAA app says winds at 155 still and 919 mb with landfall, that is insane! 

HeavyG

fishlessman

thats a mean little hurricane.  ill take a blizzard any day

Gulfcoastguy

HeavyG said:

A bit early to be doing comparisons. In Katrina’s case it was the widespread storm surge. In comparison to Camille my usual comment is “Camille was like a 30 06 and Katrina was a sawed of 12guage double barrel to the guts”.

GrillSgt

https://www.msn.com/en-us/video/downtime/cruise-ship-caught-in-michaels-outer-bands/vi-BBOa58i

Looks like fun.

DoubleEgger

Gulfcoastguy said:

October hurricanes this strong are pretty rare. A category 4 is more common between August 15 and September 30th, at least in the Gulf.

It’s been August weather in October all across the South. 

frazzdaddy

Gulfcoastguy said:

October hurricanes this strong are pretty rare. A category 4 is more common between August 15 and September 30th, at least in the Gulf.

This came ashore as a very high end cat 4 and may get upgraded to a 5 in historical analyses as it had achieved most of the criteria at landfall. 

TEXASBGE2018

I'm still amazed that on Sunday and Monday forecasters were saying "oh this will be a mild cat 2 when it hits". How after the cluster F's of Katrina and Sandy have we not invested more money into better forecasting models and research. Or is this simply just a matter of we can never truly figure out mother nature. I really really don't want this to turn into a political commentary, I'm just honestly curious. So please let's keep it civil.

HeavyG

Gulfcoastguy said:

HeavyG said:

A bit early to be doing comparisons. In Katrina’s case it was the widespread storm surge. In comparison to Camille my usual comment is “Camille was like a 30 06 and Katrina was a sawed of 12guage double barrel to the guts”.

Uhhh...the table clearly states that the rankings are based solely on pressure at landfall so it's not really trying to make any other comparison.

HeavyG

TEXASBGE2018 said:

I'm still amazed that on Sunday and Monday forecasters were still saying "oh this will be a mild cat 2 when it hits". How after the cluster F's of Katrina and Sandy have we not invested more money into better forecasting models and research. Or is this simply just a matter of we can never truly figure out mother nature. I really really don't want this to turn into a political commentary, I'm just honestly curious. So please let's keep it civil.

Would love to hear the Libertarian case for eliminating taxpayer funding for this and relying solely on the whims of the free market to gather/analyze weather data.

In a civil manner of course.

frazzdaddy

TEXASBGE2018 said:

I'm still amazed that on Sunday and Monday forecasters were still saying "oh this will be a mild cat 2 when it hits". How after the cluster F's of Katrina and Sandy have we not invested more money into better forecasting models and research. Or is this simply just a matter of we can never truly figure out mother nature. I really really don't want this to turn into a political commentary, I'm just honestly curious. So please let's keep it civil.

The prediction models are getting better and better. The HWRF hurricane model had a good handle on this storm from the get go. Because of the extremely quick,late and major intensification it predicted, not sure it was taken seriously. This one will be a big time case study. 

TEXASBGE2018

HeavyG said:

TEXASBGE2018 said:

I'm still amazed that on Sunday and Monday forecasters were still saying "oh this will be a mild cat 2 when it hits". How after the cluster F's of Katrina and Sandy have we not invested more money into better forecasting models and research. Or is this simply just a matter of we can never truly figure out mother nature. I really really don't want this to turn into a political commentary, I'm just honestly curious. So please let's keep it civil.

Would love to hear the Libertarian case for eliminating taxpayer funding for this and relying solely on the whims of the free market to gather/analyze weather data.

In a civil manner of course.

This is one area where I think most would agree we should spend federal dollars. So you won’t get any objections from this Libertarian. 

TEXASBGE2018

frazzdaddy said:

TEXASBGE2018 said:

I'm still amazed that on Sunday and Monday forecasters were still saying "oh this will be a mild cat 2 when it hits". How after the cluster F's of Katrina and Sandy have we not invested more money into better forecasting models and research. Or is this simply just a matter of we can never truly figure out mother nature. I really really don't want this to turn into a political commentary, I'm just honestly curious. So please let's keep it civil.

The prediction models are getting better and better. The HWRF hurricane model had a good handle on this storm from the get go. Because of the extremely quick,late and major intensification it predicted, not sure it was taken seriously. This one will be a big time case study. 

I agree with this. It just amazes me that these models didn’t pick up earlier on the “late major intensification” it’s the gulf. It’s practically bathwater temp all the time. I would think any model would include the assumption that if it enters the gulf the intensity is going to increase exponentially. 

frazzdaddy

Gulfcoastguy said:

HeavyG said:

A bit early to be doing comparisons. In Katrina’s case it was the widespread storm surge. In comparison to Camille my usual comment is “Camille was like a 30 06 and Katrina was a sawed of 12guage double barrel to the guts”.

Those are also preliminary #'s on Michael.

YEMTrey

Sounds like some tornadoes are popping up all over the place in Florida.  Right now near Jacksonville.  Stay safe @NPHuskerFL and @Dobie!

frazzdaddy

DoubleEgger said:

Gulfcoastguy said:

October hurricanes this strong are pretty rare. A category 4 is more common between August 15 and September 30th, at least in the Gulf.

It’s been August weather in October all across the South. 

This was a major reason for the late ramp up on this storm. Normally by this time of year the Gulf coast has had at least one frontal passage cooling the waters. Has not happened this year. The speed of the storm when it came ashore also negated normal up-welling of colder waters as it passed over and extracted the heat from warmer upper levels.

Legume

I think we can all agree that Michael’s a d!ck.

theyolksonyou

Legume said:

I think we can all agree that Michael’s a d!ck.

I posted the pic of that above

HeavyG

TEXASBGE2018 said:

HeavyG said:

TEXASBGE2018 said:

I'm still amazed that on Sunday and Monday forecasters were still saying "oh this will be a mild cat 2 when it hits". How after the cluster F's of Katrina and Sandy have we not invested more money into better forecasting models and research. Or is this simply just a matter of we can never truly figure out mother nature. I really really don't want this to turn into a political commentary, I'm just honestly curious. So please let's keep it civil.

Would love to hear the Libertarian case for eliminating taxpayer funding for this and relying solely on the whims of the free market to gather/analyze weather data.

In a civil manner of course.

This is one area where I think most would agree we should spend federal dollars. So you won’t get any objections from this Libertarian. 

You're not a very good Libertarian.

Gulfcoastguy

Down to a category three but 125 mph is still plenty dangerous.

DoubleEgger

Gulfcoastguy said:

Down to a category three but 125 mph is still plenty dangerous.

Perhaps even more dangerous because its far enough inland that few very structures are hurricane rated. 

BBQBuddy

TEXASBGE2018 said:

I'm still amazed that on Sunday and Monday forecasters were saying "oh this will be a mild cat 2 when it hits". How after the cluster F's of Katrina and Sandy have we not invested more money into better forecasting models and research. Or is this simply just a matter of we can never truly figure out mother nature. I really really don't want this to turn into a political commentary, I'm just honestly curious. So please let's keep it civil.

I am a native Miamian, so I have been through lots of hurricanes and watched lots of forecasts in 59 years.  I didn't hear the forecasters say "this will be a mild cat 2".  First, a cat 2 is never considered "mild" and no good meteorologist would ever say that.  Second, if you look at the National Hurricane Center "NHC" forecast maps it indicated the forecast strength in the "cone".  For example, S is for storm (tropical), H is for Hurricane and M is for Major Hurricane.  For a couple of days the official forecast from the NHC was "M" as it approached the coast. (See 5 day cone forecast below) Forecasting the location/direction of the storms has definitely improved over the years with the spaghetti models.  So, more to your inquiry, mother nature does have a mind of her own, but we are doing better with the forecasting and I'm sure it will continue to improve.  It is not perfect, but I think they do a pretty good job.  I knew, from looking at the NHC website and other sites, that this thing was going to develop.  I don't know what meteorologist said what you heard, but I'd change the channel.
As for Katrina and Sandy, I don't remember whether or not the forecasting was inaccurate.  The response with Katrina was horrible and the extent of damage was just not foreseen.  
Another 6 weeks of hurricane season for us and I hope we don't have another!

Cindy

Jeremiah

DoubleEgger said:

Gulfcoastguy said:

Down to a category three but 125 mph is still plenty dangerous.

Perhaps even more dangerous because its far enough inland that few very structures are hurricane rated. 

This ^^^ is what has me worried. 

Gulfcoastguy

Jeremiah said:

DoubleEgger said:

Gulfcoastguy said:

Down to a category three but 125 mph is still plenty dangerous.

Perhaps even more dangerous because its far enough inland that few very structures are hurricane rated. 

This ^^^ is what has me worried. 

I saw that with Katrina. 90 miles inland had more roof damage than the coastal counties. See the coast had building codes ( 5 nails per shingle) and inland had neither building codes nor inspectors. Since then it has changed. The inland counties were dragged kicking and screaming into building inspections by the insurance companies.

frazzdaddy

BBQBuddy said:

TEXASBGE2018 said:

I'm still amazed that on Sunday and Monday forecasters were saying "oh this will be a mild cat 2 when it hits". How after the cluster F's of Katrina and Sandy have we not invested more money into better forecasting models and research. Or is this simply just a matter of we can never truly figure out mother nature. I really really don't want this to turn into a political commentary, I'm just honestly curious. So please let's keep it civil.

I am a native Miamian, so I have been through lots of hurricanes and watched lots of forecasts in 59 years.  I didn't hear the forecasters say "this will be a mild cat 2".  First, a cat 2 is never considered "mild" and no good meteorologist would ever say that.  Second, if you look at the National Hurricane Center "NHC" forecast maps it indicated the forecast strength in the "cone".  For example, S is for storm (tropical), H is for Hurricane and M is for Major Hurricane.  For a couple of days the official forecast from the NHC was "M" as it approached the coast. (See 5 day cone forecast below) Forecasting the location/direction of the storms has definitely improved over the years with the spaghetti models.  So, more to your inquiry, mother nature does have a mind of her own, but we are doing better with the forecasting and I'm sure it will continue to improve.  It is not perfect, but I think they do a pretty good job.  I knew, from looking at the NHC website and other sites, that this thing was going to develop.  I don't know what meteorologist said what you heard, but I'd change the channel.
As for Katrina and Sandy, I don't remember whether or not the forecasting was inaccurate.  The response with Katrina was horrible and the extent of damage was just not foreseen.  
Another 6 weeks of hurricane season for us and I hope we don't have another!

Cindy

I agree, followed this closely and have many met friends. The forecasts by the NHC and NWS closely mirrored a composite of the ensemble modeling. As I pointed out in a post above the HWRF , had this storm well modeled earlier on but it's one of several that are used and is not always right. As a met you must be careful not to panic folks. A lot of very specific things had to align perfectly for this storm to intensify as quickly as it did.

JohnInCarolina

TEXASBGE2018 said:

 Or is this simply just a matter of we can never truly figure out mother nature. 

It’s probably that.  That’s why Galileo gave up, basically, and took up puppet making in his 70’s.