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OT: Hurricane Irma? OT

12357…12

Comments

  • nolaegghead
    nolaegghead Posts: 42,109
    Interesting
    Annual average official track errors for Atlantic basin tropical cyclones for the period 1989-2016
    ______________________________________________
    I love lamp..
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  • kl8ton
    kl8ton Posts: 6,407
    nolaegghead said:
    Interesting
    Annual average official track errors for Atlantic basin tropical cyclones for the period 1989-2016
    So in 2036 they will be dead accurate 120hours out?  





    Large, Medium, MiniMax, 36" Blackstone
    Grand Rapids MI
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  • RedSkip
    RedSkip Posts: 1,400
    I think your scale is off
    Large BGE - McDonald, PA
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  • nolaegghead
    nolaegghead Posts: 42,109
    I would imagine it is linked to Moore's law with an asymptotic curve that is never completely accurate.
    ______________________________________________
    I love lamp..
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  • kl8ton
    kl8ton Posts: 6,407
    i lined them up under the existing numbers and pitched them down.  I extended the trendline until it intersected the date line.  Obviously the actual prediction error is +/- the trendline and as it approaches 0 errors, i would expect it to go back up.
    Large, Medium, MiniMax, 36" Blackstone
    Grand Rapids MI
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  • kl8ton
    kl8ton Posts: 6,407
    nolaegghead said:
    I would imagine it is linked to Moore's law with an asymptotic curve that is never completely accurate.
    I am almost certain it was Moop's law bubble boy!
    Large, Medium, MiniMax, 36" Blackstone
    Grand Rapids MI
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  • RedSkip
    RedSkip Posts: 1,400
    Log scale...
    Large BGE - McDonald, PA
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  • northGAcock
    northGAcock Posts: 15,173
    Kcheves said:
    northGAcock said:
    HeavyG said:


    I'm really hoping that Irma bounces more off the Carolina's so she mostly misses Virginia a week from now.
    How nice of you to think of us.


    Wait a second...

    Wishing it doesn't come your way @HeavyG is one thing....hoping it bounces off the Carolina's is wishing harm to others. 
    Ellijay GA with a Medium & MiniMax

    Well, I married me a wife, she's been trouble all my life,
    Run me out in the cold rain and snow
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  • Legume
    Legume Posts: 15,936
    northGAcock said:
    Kcheves said:
    northGAcock said:
    HeavyG said:


    I'm really hoping that Irma bounces more off the Carolina's so she mostly misses Virginia a week from now.
    How nice of you to think of us.


    Wait a second...

    Wishing it doesn't come your way @HeavyG is one thing....hoping it bounces off the Carolina's is wishing harm to others. 
    Greater D.C. could use a scrubbin', but I wouldn't wish anyone harm.
    THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER
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  • HeavyG
    HeavyG Posts: 10,380
    northGAcock said:
    Kcheves said:
    northGAcock said:
    HeavyG said:


    I'm really hoping that Irma bounces more off the Carolina's so she mostly misses Virginia a week from now.
    How nice of you to think of us.


    Wait a second...

    Wishing it doesn't come your way @HeavyG is one thing....hoping it bounces off the Carolina's is wishing harm to others. 

    When I made that statement it looked like it was taking more of a right turn and might be over the ocean enough that it might brush/bounce off the Carolinas and avoid Virginia. If I had said that I hoped it bounced off Florida and skipped out to sea that means that I'm wishing harm on Floridians??? That is so silly to even think that would be implied by that statement.

    I wasn't wishing for it to harm others and I'm not Pat Robertson and able to pray away a hurricane. The storm is going where it's going.

    Now it looks like it is tracking to the west and going far enough inland that it may have almost no impact on eastern Virginia. However, storms often do unpredictable things and maybe this one will "bounce off" Tennessee and head right for eastern Virginia. Guess that would serve me right eh?
    “Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away.” ― Philip K. Diçk




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  • PoppasGrill
    PoppasGrill Posts: 371
    We are hunkering down in West Palm, riding it out. Then get to go to work putting power back on.
    If there is anything left to power up. I think the beachside if going to be inaccessible for a while.
    FPL has been doing a lot of infrastructure hardening over the past several years, hopefully it will be enough so that most people can have power in a few weeks.
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  • northGAcock
    northGAcock Posts: 15,173
    PoppasGrill said:
    We are hunkering down in West Palm, riding it out. Then get to go to work putting power back on.
    If there is anything left to power up. I think the beachside if going to be inaccessible for a while.
    FPL has been doing a lot of infrastructure hardening over the past several years, hopefully it will be enough so that most people can have power in a few weeks.
    Stay safe down there and thanks for what you do. All the best on this one.
    Ellijay GA with a Medium & MiniMax

    Well, I married me a wife, she's been trouble all my life,
    Run me out in the cold rain and snow
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  • Gulfcoastguy
    Gulfcoastguy Posts: 7,331
    The latest plate of spaghetti https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2017/hurricane-irma

    It rains on the unjust and the just alike. It's not any regions political beliefs or social outlook.
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  • Focker
    Focker Posts: 8,364
    Fooooooock.  


    Brandon
    Quad Cities
    "If yer gonna denigrate, familiarity with the subject is helpful."

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  • JohnInCarolina
    JohnInCarolina Posts: 34,709



    "I've made a note never to piss you two off." - Stike

    "The truth is, these are not very bright guys, and things got out of hand." - Deep Throat
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  • caliking
    caliking Posts: 19,780
    Man, this is sickening. We were at that party last week, and it was not fun. 

    Stay safe, peeps.

    #1 LBGE December 2012 • #2 SBGE February  2013 • #3 Mini May 2013
    A happy BGE family in Houston, TX.
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  • bgebrent
    bgebrent Posts: 19,636
    Yesterday I signed up for OBR with Nichole.  We volunteered to be on sight.  Today I bought a generator to be sure we had some power after Irma.  We have friends in T&C, haven't heard yet.
    Sandy Springs & Dawsonville Ga
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  • DoubleEgger
    DoubleEgger Posts: 19,164
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  • Gulfcoastguy
    Gulfcoastguy Posts: 7,331
    The latest forecast shows it hitting Miami as a Category 4 hurricane and skimming the east side of Florida. The only thing remotely good is that it is traveling fast, it isn't going to drag around like Harvey did.
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  • GATraveller
    GATraveller Posts: 8,207

    "Social media gives legions of idiots the right to speak when they once only spoke at a bar after a glass of wine, without harming the community [...] but now they have the same right to speak as a Nobel Prize winner. It's the invasion of the idiots."
                                                                                  -Umberto Eco

    2 Large
    Peachtree Corners, GA
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  • DoubleEgger
    DoubleEgger Posts: 19,164
    Braves are showing some love 

    http://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/braves-offer-free-tickets-for-people-displaced-by-hurricane-irma/604898872
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  • Thatgrimguy
    Thatgrimguy Posts: 4,738
    edited September 2017
    bgebrent said:
    Yesterday I signed up for OBR with Nichole.  We volunteered to be on sight.  Today I bought a generator to be sure we had some power after Irma.  We have friends in T&C, haven't heard yet.
    Congrats!! I wish I was better organized at this point to have gotten your help. I just don't know where I'm going yet. 


    How did you get a deployment to Florida from OBR? I don't see where that event is open for registration yet.
    XL, Small, Mini & Mini Max Green Egg, Shirley Fab Trailer, 6 gal and 2.5 gal Cajun Fryers, BlueStar 60" Range, 48" Lonestar Grillz Santa Maria, Alto Shaam 1200s, Gozney Dome, Gateway 55g Drum
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  • Thatgrimguy
    Thatgrimguy Posts: 4,738
    I'm officially connected with Salvation Army of Northeast Florida. I'm either going to head to their home base and keep their team well fed. Or I'll be heading further south if Jacksonville isn't affected to bad. The new track has me thinking the storm will break up more by the time it gets that far north. It means rough times for South Florida though.
    XL, Small, Mini & Mini Max Green Egg, Shirley Fab Trailer, 6 gal and 2.5 gal Cajun Fryers, BlueStar 60" Range, 48" Lonestar Grillz Santa Maria, Alto Shaam 1200s, Gozney Dome, Gateway 55g Drum
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  • Gulfcoastguy
    Gulfcoastguy Posts: 7,331
    Spaghetti model is back to gutting Florida right up the middle. The winds forecast have dropped to a Category 4 when it hits just west of Miami and a Category 2 when it passes east of Tampa. You are talking a hurricane that is 400 miles in diameter though which means hurricane force winds from side to side.

    https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2017/hurricane-irma
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  • The Cen-Tex Smoker
    The Cen-Tex Smoker Posts: 23,179
    From OBR:

    Operation BBQ Relief is planning for Hurricane Irma.  We are looking for staging and places to set up camp to prepare and serve hot BBQ Meals in the aftermath of this impending disaster.   If you know of a place that has power and back up power,  a kitchen,  facilities to house volunteers,  showers,  and pleanty of room outside for tractor trailers,  commercial smokers and the like,  please let us know.   Please email us at info@operationbbqrelieg.org  . 

    If you are interested in helping,  there are several ways.   We need full size foil pans / lids and #10 cans of veggies . However we cannot take them a case at a time.   We will need them by the tractor trailer load. If you have access to large quantities please let us know.   If not please consider making a cash donation. Let us use our purchasing power to make your donation go twice as far.

    If you want to volunteer your time please follow the link below and register as a volunteer.   Once registered we will communicate our needs and those registered can sign up to fill slots.   Please also consider downloading the Operation BBQ Relief Volunteer App that is available on your app store.   If you do use the app you will receive push notifications. 

    To Volunteer:

    To donate:

    Please be safe and know that when people lose everything they have to lose,  we give everything we have to give.   

    Operation BBQ Relief
    Keepin' It Weird in The ATX FBTX
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  • SaintJohnsEgger
    SaintJohnsEgger Posts: 1,826
    Just a note for those that may loose power. Try sticking your BBQ thermometer probe into your freezer before the storm strikes. That way you can monitor the temp of you frozen stuff remotely. You don't need to plug it into the thermometer until power goes out to your freezer. That will save n the batteries.

    Marshall in Beautiful Fruit Cove, FL.
    MiniMax 04/17
    Unofficial BGE MiniMax Evangelist
    Facebook Big Green Egg MiniMax Owners Group


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  • HofstraJet
    HofstraJet Posts: 1,172
    You can also put a chocolate bar in your house or anywhere else you want to see if temps got too hot. If it melts, it got too hot. I have one in my bank safe deposit box.
    Two Large Eggs, 6 gal Cajun Fryer, and a MiniMax in Charlotte, NC - My New Table
    Twitter: @ Bags
    Blog: TheJetsFan.com
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  • TideEggHead
    TideEggHead Posts: 1,345
    Y'all be safe down there... we have family in Orlando and Panama City... On the way back from Houston/Baytown mucking houses for the last 4 days... Storm water is nothing to play with... I wish this thing would turn off course and dissipate... put the valuables in the dishwasher and lock if you need too and don't go into the attic and if you do take an axe. Godspeed Florida
    LBGE
    AL
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  • thetrim
    thetrim Posts: 11,387
    I signed to volunteer with operation BBQ. This latest track takes the eye very close to Lakeland FL and about 35 miles east of our house.  Damn!  Get your ass in the Atlantic and away from our State.  
    =======================================
    XL 6/06, Mini 6/12, L 10/12, Mini #2 12/14 MiniMax 3/16 Large #2 11/20 Legacy from my FIL - RIP PitBoss Navigator 850G 11/25
    Tampa Bay, FL
    EIB 6 Oct 95
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