OT subject but worth a main-stream read- OT News Feeds...

lousubcap

Israel - Hamas update for Thursday:

"Israel has said it would not allow electricity, water, or fuel supplies to enter Gaza until Hamas releases the hostages they captured over the weekend. Israeli Energy Minister Israel Katz, in a post on X (Twitter). 

Israel is targeting tunnels believed to be used by Hamas militants in Gaza. “What Hamas has done since they took control almost 20 years ago was to build a network of tunnels…under Gaza City,” Jonathan Conricus, an Israeli military spokesperson, said. “These are not bunkers for the Gazan civilians to have access to when Israel is striking,” he added. BBC New reports. 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu formed an emergency unity government yesterday by adding two opposition lawmakers to his cabinet. Both lawmakers are former army chiefs. The additional expertise may give the government greater legitimacy to make difficult military decisions. Justin Porter reports for the New York Times. 

A preliminary unclassified assessment by U.S. intelligence agencies stated that, while Iran likely knew Hamas was planning an attack, the timing and scale of Saturday’s attack appears to have taken Tehran by surprise. “We have not currently seen anything to suggest Iran supported or was behind the attack,” a U.S. official said. Warren P. Strobel and Michael R. Gordon reports for the Wall Street Journal. 

Strikes across the Israel-Lebanon border entered their fourth day yesterday, with various Palestinian militant factions in Lebanon claiming responsibility. There are growing fears that the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon could also be drawn into the fight. Hezbollah and Hamas have strengthened ties over the past year, with Hamas reportedly calling on Hezbollah to join the fight on Saturday. Euan Ward reports for the New York Times. "

lousubcap

Thursday Russia-Ukraine update:

"Russia has intensified attacks along an eastern stretch of the front line in recent days.Ukraine yesterday said it repelled one of Russia’s heaviest assaults in months on the city of Avdiivka, with bombings also reported near the eastern towns of Lyman and Kupiansk. The Russian effort is part of the ongoing back-and-forth that has not led to significant gains for either side. Constant Méheut and Andrew E. Kramer report for the New York Times. 

Belgium will create a $1.8 billion fund for Ukraine using tax revenue from seized Russian central bank assets. The move is part of a broader discussion in the West about using the roughly $280 billion in Russian assets frozen under Western sanctions to aid Ukraine. Some European leaders, including European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, fear that using the frozen Russian assets could cause financial instability and investors to shun euro assets. Laurence Norman and Chelsey Dulaney report for the Wall Street Journal. "

Botch

Qatar has agreed to hold all $6B of Iran's money, for the time being.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/10/12/iran-oil-fund-us-israel/
 

JohnInCarolina

http://twitter.com/kenklippenstein/status/1712636101838406117?s=20

fishlessman

.i think that the surprise was that it happened before the 6b dollar exchange........oooops

lousubcap

Friday Israel - Hamas update:

"The Israeli Defense Forces told the U.N. that approximately 1.1 million people living in northern Gaza should relocate to southern Gaza in the next 24 hours, a U.N. spokesperson said. “The United Nations considers it impossible for such a movement to take place without devastating humanitarian consequences,” the U.N. said in a statement. The U.N. “strongly appeals for any such order, if confirmed, to be rescinded avoiding what could transform what is already a tragedy into a calamitous situation,” it added. Israel’s ambassador to the U.N., Gilad Erdan, has called the U.N. response “shameful.” “Instead of standing by Israel, whose citizens were slaughtered by Hamas terrorists… it preaches to Israel,” said Erdan. BBC News reports. 

Israeli intelligence reportedly saw signs of irregular activity among Hamas operatives in Gaza the day before the attack, suggesting the militant group could have been preparing for an attack. Consultations that included the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi, Shin Bet director Ronen Bar, and Aharon Haliva, head of military intelligence, were called in light of the irregular activity. However, an Israeli official said that leaders decided to wait for more intelligence before putting IDF forces around Gaza on high alert. Barak Ravid reports for Axios. 

While civilians in Gaza have been urged to leave, the only viable exit is a border crossing that Egypt has kept shut. Gazans must “stay steadfast and remain on their land,” President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi said yesterday, as Egypt fears being dragged into the conflict. “Egypt will not allow the Palestinian cause to be settled at the expense of other parties,” el-Sisi said earlier this week, hinting at fears that Israelis may try to make the conflict Egypt’s problem. Egypt has said it would allow international aid to enter Gaza from its territory, yet Israeli airstrikes near a potential border crossing point have made aid transfers impossible. Declan Walsh reports for the New York Times. "

HeavyG

lousubcap

Friday Russia-Ukraine update:

Russia and Ukraine are attempting to sway opinions as the world’s attention turns to the Israel-Hamas war. Kyrylo Budanov, Ukraine’s military intelligence chief, yesterday accused Russia of transferring Ukrainian weapons captured in battle to Hamas in a bid to drive a wedge between Ukraine, Israel, and their Western allies. Budanov gave no evidence to support this claim. Ukraine has also attempted to highlight Russia’s links with Iran, which has purportedly supplied weapons to both Russia and Hamas. Matthew Mpoke Bigg reports for the New York Times. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin arrived in Kyrgyzstan yesterday on his first known international trip since the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued a warrant for his arrest in March. Kyrgyzstan is not a signatory to the ICC statute. Frances Vinall, Annabelle Timsit, and Bryan Pietsch report for the Washington Post.

lousubcap

More Israel-Hamas/Gaza info from today:

"Israel orders civilians to evacuate northern Gaza as forces mass on the border. Early Friday local time, the Israeli government broadcast warnings to leave within 24 hours. "The evacuation order, which applies to Gaza City, home to hundreds of thousands of Palestinians, sparked widespread panic among civilians and aid workers already running from Israeli airstrikes and contending with a total siege of Gaza," the Associated Press reports. 

The order was also widely viewed as a prelude to the first Israeli military ground incursion since 2014. U.N. officials decried the order, saying it would lead to calamity, while Hamas leaders called it a "ploy" and urged civilians to remain in their homes.

Currently: Israel has cut off all food, water and supplies to Gaza, which has lost electricity. Israeli artillery, missiles, and airstrikes continue to pound targets inside the territory, including residential buildings, while Hamas rocket barrages have slackened. The death toll on both sides has passed 3,000 since Hamas forces stormed Israeli towns and opened rocket barrages on Saturday. (AP, New York Times, BBC).

The Israeli Air Force has dropped some 6,000 bombs on targets inside Gaza as of mid-Thursday, the service said in a tweet. That's more in seven days than any month in the U.S.-led coalition's fight against ISIS in the 2010s, Wesley Morgan noted on social media."

lousubcap

And the last (from me today) and latest Israel-Hamas update:

"National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY told MSNBC this morning that the instruction to move from Gaza’s north to the south in such a short time is a “tall order.” Even Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN, whose invasion of Ukraine led to the slaughter of thousands of innocent people, said the civilian casualties from a ground invasion “will be absolutely unacceptable.”

Hamas is complicating the issue further by telling residents to stay in their homes and putting up roadblocks as a ground invasion looms and thousands of airstrikes pummel Gaza. But Israel’s siege of the territory also isn’t helping, as a dearth of electricity stops evacuation messages from reaching the intended audience.

A senior administration official, who like others was granted anonymity to speak freely about internal deliberations, reiterated that Israel has an “obligation” to defend itself from Hamas but that the U.S. is working with Israel and Egypt to find safe passages out of Gaza and ways for aid to get in.

“We're trying to figure out a way of how to best alleviate the dire suffering of these innocent civilians — suffering at the hands of Hamas — create the conditions needed to resume the flow of life-saving humanitarian assistance, and we're advocating for the upholding of the law of war,” the official said.

Another U.S. official was a lot more pessimistic in a conversation with our own LARA SELIGMAN: "There is a real obvious concern that a lot of innocent people are going to die."

Both Israeli officials asserted that what happens to civilians in the coming days will be Hamas’ fault, especially if they’ve urged residents not to flee. The group, after all, sparked the conflict by launching a barbaric attack and launching rockets at Israel, killing around 1,300 people and taking 150 hostages, some of them Americans.

Humanitarian groups and experts say Gaza’s rulers would certainly shoulder some of the blame, but so would Israel for demanding a massive evacuation take place within a short period of time. More civilians would surely die during the campaign, adding to the roughly 1,800 Palestinians who have been killed since the war began last week.

The U.S. administration’s rhetoric appears to be shifting toward the plight of civilians since the evacuation order was given."

HeavyG

https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1712937729057525949?s=20

lousubcap

Tom Nichols from The Atlantic- (since the article is beyond a paywall here it is extracted).

Worth a read-

A Single Day

(Chip Somodevilla / Getty)

View in browser Regret about “what might have been” is not a particularly productive emotion. Counterfactual history, however, is quite useful. I have used it for years in teaching international relations, to help students see that not everything in history is inevitable, that accidents and sudden turns can change the destiny of nations. Also, as a science-fiction fan, I’m a sucker for the alternate-history genre, the kind of stuff where the Roman empire never rises or America loses the Revolutionary War. I loved NBC’s show Timeless, in which a team—including an academic historian!—has to run around stopping time-terrorists from messing with great events. I even liked Quantum Leap and the idea of one man traveling through the years to fix individual lives rather than alter the grand march of time. As I continue to watch the GOP flail about—House Republicans have now chosen the execrable Representative Jim Jordan for speaker, replacing Steve Scalise, whose nomination lasted 48 hours—I have been thinking about an alternate history of a United States where Donald Trump lost the 2016 election. I am convinced that the chaos now overtaking much of the American political system was not inevitable: The source of our ongoing political disorder is because of a razor-thin victory in an election in 2016 decided by a relatively tiny number of voters. I recognize that others will depict Trump’s victory as the inexorable result of long-term trends. Some, perhaps, would identify 1994, when Newt Gingrich proved that political nastiness was an effective campaign strategy, as the Year of No Return, or the election of 2010, when Americans rewarded the flamboyant jerkitude of the Tea Party with seats in Congress. There’s a lot of truth to such explanations. Long-term trends matter, because over time, they frame debates and shape the choices available to voters. The Republicans have been moving further and further to the right, but I have always argued that 2016 was a fluke, a perfect storm with epochal consequences: The GOP field was fractured and feckless; Trump was a well-known celebrity; the Democrats ran Hillary Clinton instead of supporting Joe Biden for a shot at what would have been Barack Obama’s third term. And it was close, because of the structure of the Electoral College. (The headline of an article by Tina Nguyen, written a few weeks after Trump’s win, captures it nicely: “You Could Fit All the Voters Who Cost Clinton the Election in a Mid-Size Football Stadium.”) Trump’s win set up a series of cascading failures. Winning in 2016 turbocharged Trump’s claims of leading a movement. His victory encouraged other Republicans to go into survival mode and adopt the protective coloration of Trumpism just to win their primaries, a process that led directly to the crapstorm deluging the House at this very moment. Most Republicans in Congress, as Mitt Romney has told us, hate Trump, and many of them probably wish that someone could jump into the Time Tunnel, go back to 2016, and persuade a few thousand voters in three or four states to come to their senses. At the least, a Trump loss would have let other Republicans avoid sinking in the populist swamp. Elise Stefanik might be a relentless political opportunist, but without Trump, she and other GOP leaders could have pronounced Trumpian extremism a failure and stayed in something like a center-right lane. On the Earth Where Trump Lost, Fox-addicted voters might still have sent irresponsible performance artists such as Marjorie Taylor Greene and Matt Gaetz to Congress, but the institutional Republicans would have had every incentive to marginalize them. (Remember, Jordan’s been in the House since 2007, but attaching himself to Trump has helped to put the speaker’s gavel within his reach.) Had Trump lost, someone might even have bothered to read (and act on) the so-called Republican National Committee “autopsy” of 2013, which argued that the future of the party relies on better appeals to immigrants, women, minorities, and young people. With Trump’s win, that kind of talk went out the window. Instead, the Trump GOP chained itself to the votes of older white Americans—a declining population. Republicans thus had to squeeze more votes out of a shrinking base, and the only way to do that was to build on Trump’s bond with his personality cult and defend him at all costs. Perhaps most important, a Trump loss would have prevented (or at least delayed) the normalization of violence and authoritarianism in American politics. This is not to say that the Republicans would today be a healthy party, but Trump’s victory confirmed the surrender of the national GOP to a sociopathic autocrat. There’s a difference between a dysfunctional party and a party that has decayed into a mindless countercultural movement, and that rail switch was thrown in November 2016. An irony in thinking through the 2016 counterfactual case is how many people, including Trump and the herd of sycophants who coalesced around him, would have been better off if Trump had lost. Excellent books by the Washington Post reporter Ben Terris and by my Atlantic colleague Mark Leibovich have described the kind of people who formed up behind Trump, and it is striking how many of them are now facing personal and political ruin. Perhaps someone like Seb Gorka feels that he did well by jumping from academic obscurity to fish-pill sales, but others whose associations with Trump opened the door to greater scrutiny and eventual disaster—think of Matt Schlapp, Peter Navarro, or even the pathetic Rudy Giuliani—would all have been better off had Trump had flamed out. But no one should wish for the Guardian of Forever to open a gate back to 2016 more than Trump himself. Had he lost, he could have fulfilled what was likely his true wish, to go back to his life in New York as a faux-capitalist fraudster while traveling the country as a pretend president, holding rallies and raking in money from credulous rubes. Instead, he faces humiliation, financial failure, and criminal indictments. Measures such as impeachment that could have taken Trump out of American political life were destined to fail because of 2016. The 2020 election proved Trump’s toxicity, but by then, too many Republicans had made too many compromises and they could no longer just walk away. Their fates (which for some might include prison) are sealed. All of this chaos and misery was avoidable—and all of it stemmed from one election and the choices of a tiny number of Americans who could have averted these disasters. As Trump tries to regain his office, voters should remember that nothing is inevitable: Choices matter. Elections matter. A single day can matter.

Botch

^^^ Possibly the best article I've read in a couple years.  Thanks.  

Buckwoody Egger

Also appreciate that article. Trump has never won the popular vote. Lost to Hillary by 2.8 million.  He said the electoral college was a sham until it was a freak outcome that worked to his advantage. 5 times in history. 2016, Bush over Gore in 2000 and three in the 1800s.  Biden beat him by 7 million. 

The will of the people has always been for Trump to go away.  Hopefully over time he will not only go away but be held accountable.  Also time will allow the current supporters to turn tail like so many of the jailed J6ers that finally woke up from the trance.

lousubcap

Sunday Israel-Hamas update:

"ALL EYES ON GAZA — The world is waiting and watching as the Israeli military readies a ground invasion of the Gaza Strip with the goal of wiping out Hamas. For the first time since 2006, Israel will also seek to “capture land and at least briefly hold onto it,” three senior Israeli officials tell NYT’s Patrick Kingsley and Ronen Bergman.

The escalation “risks locking Israel into months of bloody urban combat,” the pair write.

The biggest question: “It remains uncertain what Israel will do with Gaza City, Hamas’s stronghold and the enclave’s largest urban center, if it captures it, or what exactly Israeli officials mean when they describe the destruction of Hamas’s leadership. Hamas, considered a terrorist group by the United States and the European Union, is a large social movement as well as a militia that is deeply embedded within Gazan society.”

WSJ: “An Israeli airstrike in southern Gaza killed BILLAL AL KEDRA, a Hamas commander responsible for the Kibbutz Nirim massacre, late Saturday, the Israel Defense Forces said Sunday.”

ABC: “The Pentagon has ordered a second aircraft carrier strike group to the eastern Mediterranean near Israel to deter Iran or Hezbollah from joining the Israel-Hamas conflict, according to U.S. officials.

“‘I have directed the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group (CSG) to begin moving to the Eastern Mediterranean,’ said Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN in a statement confirming the deployment. ‘As part of our effort to deter hostile actions against Israel or any efforts toward widening this war following Hamas’s attack on Israel.’”

THE HUMANITARIAN ANGLE …

This morning, national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN told CNN’s Jake Tapper that Israel had restored water access in southern Gaza, a decision that he said “has been the subject of discussion over the course of the past few days.” ISRAEL KATZ, Israel’s minister of energy, “said the decision to resume water supply to southern Gaza was made during the call between [PM BENJAMIN] NETANYAHU and [JOE] BIDEN on Saturday,” per Axios’ Barak Ravid.

AP: “Biden on Saturday spoke with Palestinian President MAHMOUD ABBAS and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, urging the leaders to allow humanitarian aid to the region and affirmed his support for efforts to protect civilians.”

WSJ: “A diplomatic effort to evacuate U.S. citizens from Gaza faltered after Egyptian officials said they would only allow foreigners to cross the border if aid could pass in the opposite direction.

“Egypt’s refusal on Saturday, confirmed by three officials and in an announcement on state television, thwarted the latest U.S. push to evacuate any of the 500 or more Americans in Gaza wishing to leave through the enclave’s southern border with Egypt.”

Reuters: “The Israeli military said on Sunday it would continue to allow Gazans to evacuate south ahead of an expected ground assault by its forces on the Gaza Strip in retaliation for unprecedented attacks by Hamas militants eight days ago.”

AP: “Medics in Gaza warned Sunday that thousands could die as hospitals packed with wounded people run desperately low on fuel and basic supplies. Palestinians in the besieged coastal enclave struggled to find food, water and safety ahead of an expected Israeli ground offensive in the war sparked by Hamas’ deadly attack. …"

lousubcap

Monday Israel-Hamas update:

"Egypt was set to reopen the only remaining border crossing into Gaza following diplomatic efforts to get aid in and foreign passport holders out, security sources in Egypt said. However, the situation at the border crossing remains uncertain, with ceasefire plans stalled. “There is currently no truce and humanitarian aid in Gaza in exchange for getting foreigners out,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said. Humeyra Pamuk, Nandita Bose, and Nidal Al-Mughrabi report for Reuters.

Violence has surged in the West Bank following Israel’s bombing of Gaza, raising fears of another front opening. Jewish settlers have attacked Palestinians as security forces clashed with demonstrators. Israeli forces closed Israel-West Bank border crossings and used checkpoints and roadblocks to split the north from the south. According to the Palestinian health authorities, at least 56 Palestinians have been killed. Over 1,100 have been injured. Sune Engel Rasmussen and Fatima AbdulKarim reports for the Wall Street Journal. 

Israel resumed the water supply to the southern Gaza Strip yesterday after pressure from the Biden administration, two Israeli officials confirmed. Barak Ravid reports for Axios.

The Iranian-backed Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon launched attacks on Israeli army posts and a northern border village yesterday, and Israel retaliated with strikes on Lebanon as fears of escalation mount. “We have no interest in a war in the north. We don’t want to escalate the situation,” Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said yesterday, suggesting that if Hezbollah restrains itself, then Israel will keep the situation along the border as it is. Reuters reports. 

While Egypt has expressed willingness to allow foreign passport holders to cross the border from Gaza, it has said hosting Gazans fleeing the war is unacceptable. Under a tentative deal, U.S. citizens would be the first to be allowed across the border at Rafah, the last remaining exit out of Gaza. The United States estimates that between 500 and 600 Americans are in Gaza. Regarding the possibility of Gazans fleeing to Egypt, the Egyptian National Security Council said it “rejects and condemns the policy of forced displacement and any attempts to liquidate the Palestinian cause at the expense of neighboring countries.” Chao Deng, Summer Said, and Vivian Salama report for the Wall Street Journal.

U.S. President Biden said a new Israeli occupation of Gaza would be a “big mistake,” acknowledging that while Hamas must be eliminated, the militant group does not represent all Palestinians. According to Palestinian officials, about 2,700 people have been killed in Gaza, and 9,600 have been wounded. Aid agencies have said about 600,000 people have been displaced from the north of Gaza. The Washington Post reports.

Classified CIA intelligence reports issued before Hamas’ attack warned of a potential rocket attack but did not predict the large-scale assault, according to U.S. officials. Intelligence agencies’ failure to detect Hamas’ preparations has raised the possibility that agencies underestimated the militant group or have devoted too few resources to monitoring it amid other global crises. Hamas may also have found means of blocking intelligence agencies from intercepting their communications. Julian E. Barnes, Adam Entous, Edward Wong, and Adam Goldman report for the New York Times. "

lousubcap

Monday Russia-Ukraine update:

"The Biden administration intends to push Congress into adopting an emergency aid package that pairs support for Ukraine and Israel, according to a senior White House official. The White House hopes that by pairing the two, Republicans will support funding for Ukraine despite growing opposition. The package may also further Republican priorities, such as funding for the U.S.-Mexico border wall and aid to Taiwan. Speaking in Israel yesterday, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer promised to put an aid package to a floor vote in the next few weeks. Karoun Demirjian reports for the New York Times. 

Ukrainian pilots are expected to begin training to fly F-16 fighter jets in Arizona this week, according to four U.S. officials. Some Ukrainian pilots training in Europe are already training in F-16 flight simulators. Lara Seligman reports for POLITICO.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to meet the Chinese leadership in Beijing this week, marking the 10th anniversary of the Belt and Road Initiative. Putin said he and Chinese leader Xi Jinping will discuss growing economic and financial ties. Christopher Bodeen reports for AP News.  

North Korea sent over 1,000 containers of weapons to Russia for use in Ukraine in recent weeks, U.S. officials said on Friday. It is uncertain what kind of munitions were sent. The United States is concerned that Russia will exchange sophisticated military technology with North Korea. Peter Baker reports for the New York Times.

Russia’s military continued its offensive in the eastern Ukrainian city of Avdiivka as local authorities said two civilians were killed in shelling that was so fierce, that emergency crews were unable to recover the dead from the destroyed buildings.

The General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces said its forces had repelled 15 Russian attacks near Avdiivka, Tonenke and Pervomaiske in the Donetsk region.

Russian President Vladimir Putin told Russian television that the country’s forces had bolstered their positions across the entire front line in Ukraine, claiming a Ukrainian counteroffensive that began in June had “failed completely”.

The Russian defence ministry said Ukraine launched 27 drones on western Russia. Officials said that 18 drones were shot down over the Kursk region, leading to speculation in the Russian press that the attack could have been targeting the nearby Khalino military airfield. Officials also said two more drones were shot down over the Belgorod region, but did not say what happened to the remaining drones."

lousubcap

More Monday Israel-Hamas material:

"Gaza's lifeline border crossing explained

Palestinians with dual nationalities are waiting to cross the Rafah border crossing with Egypt. Credit: Reuters

An airstrike has hit the area around the Rafah crossing between Gaza and Egypt, our correspondent in Gaza, Rushdi Abu Alouf, has confirmed. The hoped-for humanitarian truce has failed to materialise. Here’s what you need to know on the focal point of diplomatic efforts today.

BBC News

What is the Rafah crossing?

It's the southernmost post of exit from Gaza and borders Egypt's Sinai peninsula. There are only two other border crossings from and into the Gaza Strip - Erez, a crossing for people with Israel in northern Gaza, and Kerem Shalom, a solely commercial goods junction with Israel in southern Gaza. Both were shut by Israel after the unprecedented assault from Hamas on southern Israel which killed more than 1,300 people.

How is it normally used?

It is not easy for Palestinians to leave Gaza via Rafah. They must register with the local Palestinian authorities two to four weeks in advance and passage may be rejected by either the Palestinian or Egyptian authorities with little warning or explanation. According to the UN, in August 2023, the Egyptian authorities allowed 19,608 exits from Gaza and denied entry to 314 people.

Why doesn't Egypt open the crossing?

Egypt's current reluctance to open the crossing without clear conditions and guarantees may be about trying to avoid a mass exodus of Palestinians from Gaza. Egypt does not want to play any role in what could amount to a permanent resettlement of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians from Gaza. It is likely, though, to allow foreigners and Palestinians with dual nationality to leave, but it wants this to be dependent on allowing humanitarian aid into Gaza."

"

Gulfcoastguy

Why don’t they use the smuggling tunnels into Egypt?

BuckeyeFork

Gulfcoastguy said:

Why don’t they use the smuggling tunnels into Egypt?

Great question.  So many things obviously wrong that I'm starting to believe this may be a big operation orchestrated by the deep state to disrupt markets.  I can't prove that it is, but I can't prove that it isn't, either.

JohnInCarolina

http://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1714231701562446262?s=20

lousubcap

Tuesday Israel Hamas update:

Thousands of people have gathered at the Rafah border crossing with Egypt, the only remaining exit out of Gaza, hoping that diplomatic efforts will open the crossing before the expected Israeli ground incursion. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has been in discussions with Egypt and Israel to reopen the crossing. However, there has been no progress in negotiations, the U.N. said, with Egypt blaming Israel for “not cooperating.” Egypt has focused on allowing aid into Gaza and has said it could host medical evacuations and Gazans with permission to travel onwards. Israeli strikes have hit the Rafah crossing area at least three times since its air campaign began. Ece Goksedef reports for BBC News.

Iran foreign minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian yesterday warned that an Iranian-backed network of militias would open “multiple fronts” against Israel if attacks killing civilians in Gaza continued. He said a “pre-emptive action” was possible “in the coming few hours.” The announcement comes after Abdollahian met with leaders from Hamas, the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon, and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Abdollahian confirmed that Tehran received “deceitful messages” from the United States aimed at ensuring the conflict does not expand. Farnaz Fassihi reports for the New York Times.

President Biden will visit Israel tomorrow, signifying U.S. commitment to Israel. According to White House National Security spokesperson John Kirby, Biden will meet with top Israeli officials to discuss their strategy and humanitarian assistance for Palestinians inside Gaza. Biden will then travel to Jordan to meet Egyptian and Palestinian Authority leaders and address the “dire humanitarian needs.” Stephen Kalin, Summer Said, Fatima AbdulKarim, Tarini Parti, and William Mauldin report for the Wall Street Journal.

General Michael “Erik” Kurilla, Commander of the U.S. Central Command, has arrived in Israel to meet with Israel’s military leadership. “I’m here to ensure that Israel has what it needs to defend itself, and am particularly focused on avoiding other parties expanding the conflict,” General Kurilla said. U.S. Central Command said in a statement.

A rapid response force, consisting of 2,000 U.S. Marines and sailors, is being deployed to the eastern Mediterranean, two defense officials said. The force is tasked with providing Israel medical and logistical support. Officials have stressed that the United States has no plans to deploy U.S. soldiers to fight in the Israel-Hamas war. Natasha Bertrand and Oren Liebermann report for CNN.

U.S. diplomatic efforts in the Middle East appear to be failing, as Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with regional allies to ensure the conflict does not expand.Blinken was kept waiting for several hours by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, who framed the conflict as “military operations that have claimed the lives of innocent people,” effectively siding against the Israeli offensive. Saudi Arabia is reportedly pausing U.S.-backed efforts to normalize diplomatic relations with Israel. While Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi said we “unequivocally condemn” Hamas’ attack, he also said, “we need to understand that this is the result of accumulated fury and hatred over four decades, where the Palestinians had no hope to find a solution.” Nahal Toosi reports for POLIITICO.

And this-

U.S. Government Arranges Cruise Ship to Evacuate Americans Stranded in Israel

A Royal Caribbean cruise ship chartered by the U.S. government departed Haifa, Israel on Monday carrying thousands of American citizens fleeing the war in Israel.

Royal Caribbean’s Rhapsody of the Seas departed Haifa bound for Limassol Port in Cyprus carrying some 2,500 passengers.

Boarding got underway at 8 a.m. local time Monday morning and was available on a first-come, first-served basis to American’s with valid travel documents and their immediate family members, according to the U.S. Embassy in Israel.

All passengers were required to sign a promissory note agreeing to repay the U.S. government for the cost of the trip.

“Royal Caribbean Group is actively assisting the U.S. Department of State in an effort to evacuate American citizens in the area,” Royal Caribbean Group confirmed in a statement."

lousubcap

Tuesday Russia-Ukraine update:

"Russia is withdrawing the ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin, citing the irresponsible attitude of the United States toward global security. Russia will remain a signatory to the treaty and continue participating in the global monitoring system. Earlier this month, President Vladimir Putin said, “I am not ready to say whether we really need to conduct tests or not, but it is possible theoretically to behave in the same way as the United States.” Guy Faulconbridge reports for Reuters.

Russia’s large-scale assault on the small east Ukrainian city of Avdiivka, which began last week, has made little progress and led to heavy Russian losses. Russia lost 2,000 troops on the first day of the assault on Avdiivka, Col. Oleksiy Dmytrashkivskiy, a Ukrainian military spokesperson said. Russia also lost at least 36 armored vehicles since the initial assault, according to open-source intelligence analysts. The Russian failure to gain much territory in the east mirrors Ukraine’s slow counter-offensive in the south. Ian Lovett reports for the Wall Street Journal.

General Oleksandr Syrskyi, the commander of Ukraine’s ground forces, said Russia was aiming to break through Ukrainian defences in the northeastern Kupiansk-Lyman area, adding that fighting there had “significantly escalated”.

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu told President Vladimir Putin that the Russian army was continuing its military operations in Ukraine in areas where it could improve its position.

Russia launched five missiles and 12 kamikaze drones at Ukraine. Ukraine’s Air Force said it shot down two of the missiles, which targeted northern and eastern regions, and 11 of the drones, which were launched in several directions but with a particular focus on western Ukraine."

lousubcap

More Tuesday Israel-Hamas update:

"In a move that is risky politically and personally, and one that shows just how much is at stake, President Biden will visit Israel on Wednesday. The trip, in addition to showing unity, is intended to serve several key purposes. First, before agreeing to the trip, the Biden team demanded that Israel agree to safe zones and a plan for humanitarian aid for Palestinians in Gaza. Second, the president is pushing Israel to have a plan for what happens if they are able to remove Hamas from power. Third, the president wants to emphasize to Israeli leaders the importance of minimizing civilian casualties. And Fourth, critically, the president wants to ensure that other actors don't take the opportunity to start a much wider war in the region. Ben Rhodes does a good job of explaining the hours of negotiation that led to Biden's visit.

+ "Biden is walking into an emotional maelstrom." David Remnick in The New Yorker: Biden’s Middle East Burden. "Visiting Israel, the President will express support for a traumatized nation, but he must also try to steer it from the blindness of rage."

+ "Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken hurried into a bunker as air raid sirens wailed in Tel Aviv on Monday, in the most dramatic moment of a whirlwind — and unusually chaotic — Middle East tour for America’s top diplomat." NYT (Gift Article): 10 Stops in 5 Days, Plus an Air Raid Shelter, for Blinken."A trip originally scheduled for two days has now extended into its sixth, with 10 stops and counting. For an official whose travel schedule is meticulously planned and rarely revised, Mr. Blinken’s frenetic journey has underscored the scale and complexity of the diplomatic crisis he faces."

+ If nothing else, the Biden visit will at least briefly delay the Israeli ground invasion. Tom Friedman in the NYT (Gift Article): Why a Gaza Invasion and ‘Once and for All’ Thinking Are Wrong for Israel. "Just ask this question: If Israel announced today that it was forgoing, for now, a full-blown invasion of Gaza, who would be happy, and who would be relieved, and who would be upset? Iran would be totally frustrated, Hezbollah would be disappointed, Hamas would feel devastated — its whole war plan came to naught — and Vladimir Putin would be crushed, because Israel would not be burning up ammunition and weapons the U.S. needs to be sending to Ukraine. The settlers in the West Bank would be enraged. Meanwhile, the parents of every Israeli soldier and every Israeli held hostage would be relieved, every Palestinian in Gaza caught in the crossfire would be relieved, and every friend and ally Israel has in the world — starting with one Joseph R. Biden — would be relieved." (I'm not sure if all the parties listed by Friedman would agree, but the big question he introduces is critical: How does Israel protect itself and punish and disable Hamas without doing wider damage to the long term prospects in the region.)

+ No part of this tragedy is more complex than the hostage situation. And there are no easy answers. Dennis Ross who has worked on the Middle East in a variety of roles for decades: The Best of Bad Options for Recovering the Hostages.

+ Hundreds are reported dead after a hospital was hit in Gaza, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas cancels his scheduled meeting with Biden (whose trip just got even more urgent and more complicated), IDF says the hospital was hit by a failed Islamic Jihad rocket, Israeli embassy attacked in Jordan, Hamas releases a hostage video, humanitarian relief negotiations continue. Here's the latest from CNN, BBC, Times of Israel, and NBC."

lousubcap

Wednesday Israel-Hamas update:

"The Hamas’ attack on Israeli civilians and the subsequent Israel-Hamas war has led to violations of international law. The U.N. Commission of Inquiry began collecting evidence of war crimes by all sides in the conflict. Under Protocol I of the Geneva Conventions 1977, it is unlawful to target civilians, and militaries must distinguish between civilians and combatants. The Palestinian Authority, which nominally covers Gaza, has acceded to Protocol I. Israel has not ratified it but recognizes the same principles as customary international law. Jess Bravin reports for the Wall Street Journal. 

Hamas is closely coordinating its next steps with the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militant group in Lebanon, Ahmed Abdul-Hadi, the head of Hamas’ political bureau in Beirut, said. However, Abdul-Hadi denied that Hezbollah had prior knowledge of Hamas’ large-scale attack on Israeli civilians. Jamie Dettmer reports for POLITICO. 

U.S. President Biden yesterday said he was “outraged and deeply saddened” by the hundreds of people killed in a hospital in Gaza. His comments come as he travels to show solidarity with Israel while urging it to avoid civilian casualties. Katie Rogers and Peter Baker report for the New York Times. 

U.S. President Biden today said the strike on a Gaza hospital in which hundreds of people were killed was not carried out by Israel. Biden said, “based on what I’ve seen, it appears as though it was done by the other team, not you.” Betsy Klein, Kyle Feldscher, Kayla Tausche, and MJ Lee report for CNN.

The United States’ “ironclad” support for Israel has drawn intense criticism in the region, even from U.S. allies. In interviews since the Israel-Hamas war began, many in the region have said the rhetoric used by U.S. and Israeli officials is dehumanizing. Many in the Middle East view Israel as a colonial-style occupier, enabled by the United States. Vivian Nereim, Alissa J. Rubin, and Euan Ward report for the New York Times. 

Jordan has canceled its planned meeting with President Biden and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al Sisi. President of the Palestinian Authority Mahmoud Abbas also canceled his meeting with Biden. Jordan’s Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi said the meeting would proceed when the parties agree to end the “war and the massacres against Palestinians.” Jordan’s King Abdullah said Israel’s response to Hamas’ attack exceeded the right of self-defense and was collective punishment of Palestinian civilians. Suleiman Al-Khalidi reports for Reuters. "

lousubcap

Wednesday Russia-Ukraine update:

The United States secretly sent long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine in recent days, according to multiple officials. The Ukrainian military said on social media yesterday that it destroyed several Russian helicopters, an ammunition depot, and an air defense launcher. It is believed ATACMSs were used in the strike, though Ukraine has not confirmed this. The missiles were sent covertly in a bid to catch the Russians by surprise, an official said. Natasha Bertrand and Oren Liebermann report for CNN. 

The U.S. decision to send ATACMS missiles to Ukraine was a grave mistake, Russia’s ambassador to the United States said today. “The consequences of this step, which was deliberately hidden from the public, will be of the most serious nature,” he said on social media. Reuters reports. 

About two-thirds of American voters say supporting Ukraine is in the national interest, according to a Quinnipiac poll. 

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is expected in North Korea today, in a sign of deepening ties between the two countries. The visit comes as reports of North Korean weapons transfers to Russia mount. Josh Smith reports for Reuters. "

Edit to add the following:

"Ukrainian forces used United States-supplied long-range ATACMS missiles for the first time, inflicting heavy damage on airfields in eastern Luhansk and southern Berdiansk, which are occupied by Russia. Speaking in his nightly video address, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the weapons had “proven themselves”.

Oleksandr Shtupun, the spokesperson for Ukraine’s southern group of forces, told national television that Russia continued to push its week-old assault on the devastated town of Avdiivka in the east, with Ukrainian forces repelling 10 attacks. Shtupun also said Ukrainian forces advancing south towards the Sea of Azov had registered “partial success” west of Verbove, one of a cluster of villages it is trying to capture.

Local officials said “massive” Russian shelling on the southern city of Kherson and the surrounding area injured at least seven people. Kyiv also said it had shot down six Iranian-made Shahed drones that were launched from Moscow-annexed Crimea towards the port city of Odesa.

Russia, meanwhile, said it shot down eight drones over Crimea and three others over its western region of Belgorod, bordering Ukraine.

The destruction of the Kakhovka dam in southeastern Ukraine in June caused “staggering” loss and damage estimated at $14bn, according to a report by the Ukrainian government and the United Nations. Kyiv accused Russia of blowing up the dam across the Dnipro River, which flooded the surrounding area with landmine-contaminated water and left areas upstream without water. Moscow has denied it was responsible for the breach."

lousubcap

And this from Politico:

 "New polling from the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics shows an intensely divided country in which partisan rancor has grown so deep that many Americans support authoritarian or unconstitutional proposals. To wit, here’s the percentage of respondents that at least somewhat back radical ideas:

• Exploring alternatives to democracy: 31% of DONALD TRUMP supporters, 24% of Biden supporters.
• Using violence to stop the other side: 41% of Biden supporters, 38% of Trump supporters.
• Suspending elections in times of crisis: 30% of Trump supporters, 25% of Biden supporters.
• Red or blue states seceding from the union: 41% of Trump supporters, 30% of Biden supporters.

There’s lots more in the poll, which also finds Biden leading Trump 52% to 48% in the 2024 horse race."

That is some disturbing results right there.

HeavyG

lousubcap said:

And this from Politico:

 "New polling from the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics shows an intensely divided country in which partisan rancor has grown so deep that many Americans support authoritarian or unconstitutional proposals. To wit, here’s the percentage of respondents that at least somewhat back radical ideas:

• Exploring alternatives to democracy: 31% of DONALD TRUMP supporters, 24% of Biden supporters.
• Using violence to stop the other side: 41% of Biden supporters, 38% of Trump supporters.
• Suspending elections in times of crisis: 30% of Trump supporters, 25% of Biden supporters.
• Red or blue states seceding from the union: 41% of Trump supporters, 30% of Biden supporters.

There’s lots more in the poll, which also finds Biden leading Trump 52% to 48% in the 2024 horse race."

That is some disturbing results right there.

I'd love to see some historical comparisons of those four bulleted items. Substitute Trump v Biden for many other contentious  contests/periods in our history and I'd bet those responses aren't really way off "the norm".

Foghorn

HeavyG said:

lousubcap said:

And this from Politico:

 "New polling from the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics shows an intensely divided country in which partisan rancor has grown so deep that many Americans support authoritarian or unconstitutional proposals. To wit, here’s the percentage of respondents that at least somewhat back radical ideas:

• Exploring alternatives to democracy: 31% of DONALD TRUMP supporters, 24% of Biden supporters.
• Using violence to stop the other side: 41% of Biden supporters, 38% of Trump supporters.
• Suspending elections in times of crisis: 30% of Trump supporters, 25% of Biden supporters.
• Red or blue states seceding from the union: 41% of Trump supporters, 30% of Biden supporters.

There’s lots more in the poll, which also finds Biden leading Trump 52% to 48% in the 2024 horse race."

That is some disturbing results right there.

I'd love to see some historical comparisons of those four bulleted items. Substitute Trump v Biden for many other contentious  contests/periods in our history and I'd bet those responses aren't really way off "the norm".

Here you go.  Political polarization has increased significantly over the last 3 decades.

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/interactives/political-polarization-1994-2017/

The US used to be a much more friendlier place.

JohnInCarolina

lousubcap said:

And this from Politico:

 "New polling from the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics shows an intensely divided country in which partisan rancor has grown so deep that many Americans support authoritarian or unconstitutional proposals. To wit, here’s the percentage of respondents that at least somewhat back radical ideas:

• Exploring alternatives to democracy: 31% of DONALD TRUMP supporters, 24% of Biden supporters.
• Using violence to stop the other side: 41% of Biden supporters, 38% of Trump supporters.
• Suspending elections in times of crisis: 30% of Trump supporters, 25% of Biden supporters.
• Red or blue states seceding from the union: 41% of Trump supporters, 30% of Biden supporters.

There’s lots more in the poll, which also finds Biden leading Trump 52% to 48% in the 2024 horse race."

That is some disturbing results right there.

Those are some crazy numbers, but with things like these I like to remind myself that polls show 1/3 of Americans think the sun revolves around the Earth and that the moon is made of cheese.