OT - Men's Division One 2017 Basketball Tournament- OT (Edit: no clue how this landed in "pork"...)

JohnInCarolina

Legume said:

Who does Putin have to win it?

Trump University 

northGAcock

YukonRon said:

Vegas has given Duke the best odds at winning the tournament 5-1.

They may have to come through those Gamecocks. Could be trouble.

bgebrent

Duke needs Wisconsin to beat Villanova.  Then Duke has to get by Baylor.  Duke does get the bracket with the easiest #1 however.

YukonRon

If you add up the seedings, the south bracket is the toughest bracket, by far. That is where teams like Kentucky, UCLA and North Carolina deserve to be. The best teams play in the best bracket. Whoever comes out of the South, when they win it all, will know they earned it, instead of having it given to them.

bgebrent

YukonRon said:

If you add up the seedings, the south bracket is the toughest bracket, by far. That is where teams like Kentucky, UCLA and North Carolina deserve to be. The best teams play in the best bracket. Whoever comes out of the South, when they win it all, will know they earned it, instead of having it given to them.

Without a doubt.  I like us getting it done and making the final four.  This Time however, for the first time in modern history, Duke didn't get a final four berth served up on silver platter sprinkled with sugar.  Hoping to see Duke-SC play.  I love March!

YukonRon

According to the "experts" at ESPN, a team from the south bracket to win the championship represented 50% of the votes, while the other 3 regions split the other 50%.

bgebrent

YukonRon said:

According to the "experts" at ESPN, a team from the south bracket to win the championship represented 50% of the votes, while the other 3 regions split the other 50%.

And most now are giving the nod to NC.  They're really good.  Just not as good as us playing at our best.

bgebrent

Final Four Prediction:

Puke v Arizona 

KU-UK

Heard it here first.

bgebrent

Other Final Four predictions?

Foghorn

bgebrent said:

Duke needs Wisconsin to beat Villanova.  Then Duke has to get by Baylor.  Duke does get the bracket with the easiest #1 however.

I still don't get this. How is the team that is considered the consensus #1 team in the country the easiest #1 seed?

And as for Duke being the favorite - if I were not a Duke grad, I'd bet against them. I'm not a gambler, but that's not a gamble. You get over 10% return on an event that has about a 99% likelihood of happening.  That's a great return on investment in 3 weeks or less. 

bgebrent

Just sit back and watch brother @Foghorn.  Villanova will have the weakest showing of the #1's.  As much as I hate to say it, NC prolly the best #1.  In any case, the fun's about to begin.

Foghorn

So, you're not a moneyball guy I take it.

YukonRon

Foghorn said:

I still don't get this. How is the team that is considered the consensus #1 team in the country the easiest #1 seed?

And as for Duke being the favorite - if I were not a Duke grad, I'd bet against them. I'm not a gambler, but that's not a gamble. You get over 10% return on an event that has about a 99% likelihood of happening.  That's a great return on investment in 3 weeks or less. 

If Duke was in the South region, I would likely agree with your argument. As has been the case the last few years, you can almost identify the toughest region by knowing Duke does not have to play in it.
Duke Fans. Really?
In Duke's case, the region they are in, the likelihood number of 99%, which you stated, is knee slapping laughable, at best. That number drops significantly, when in essence, they are given a hall pass all the way up to the national championship, as they are this year, and have been, recently each year.
I am not a gambler either, but I know a good wager when I see it. Vegas gives them 5-1 odds because of their path to the tournament championship will not be challenged.
If you have the top horse, with the top jockey, running against a field of future dog food and glue, do you seriously expect anyone to bet the field, as you would think we should, in Duke's region?
C'mon man. Call it like it is; Cakewalk City.
The only people happy with Duke's draw, are Duke alums, and Brown nose Vitale.
If I were a Duke fan, I am making F4 plans.

Foghorn

YukonRon said:

Foghorn said:

I still don't get this. How is the team that is considered the consensus #1 team in the country the easiest #1 seed?

And as for Duke being the favorite - if I were not a Duke grad, I'd bet against them. I'm not a gambler, but that's not a gamble. You get over 10% return on an event that has about a 99% likelihood of happening.  That's a great return on investment in 3 weeks or less. 

If Duke was in the South region, I would likely agree with your argument. As has been the case the last few years, you can almost identify the toughest region by knowing Duke does not have to play in it.
Duke Fans. Really?
In Duke's case, the region they are in, the likelihood number of 99%, which you stated, is knee slapping laughable, at best. That number drops significantly, when in essence, they are given a hall pass all the way up to the national championship, as they are this year, and have been, recently each year.
I am not a gambler either, but I know a good wager when I see it. Vegas gives them 5-1 odds because of their path to the tournament championship will not be challenged.
If you have the top horse, with the top jockey, running against a field of future dog food and glue, do you seriously expect anyone to bet the field, as you would think we should, in Duke's region?
C'mon man. Call it like it is; Cakewalk City.
The only people happy with Duke's draw, are Duke alums, and Brown nose Vitale.
If I were a Duke fan, I am making F4 plans.

You are clearly not a moneyball guy either.  It's funny how you are very objective about politics but you throw all reason and rationality out the window where Duke basketball is concerned.

Let's try putting some numbers on this.

By definition, whichever #2 seed got put in the region with the #1 overall seed, got the hardest path to the Final Four.  Period.

If you can show me data - like the collective RPI or KenPom rating or whatever of the other top 8 seeds in Duke's region - in this year, or any other year - that shows they got an easier path, I'll gladly admit it.  But you have to understand that 1) in year's when Duke is the overall #1 seed, they are supposed to be in the easiest region if you take them out of the calculations - and 2) an average KenPom (or whatever metric you choose) rating of 22.003 vs 22.002 isn't worth discussing because the committee will never get things perfectly mathematically balanced.  If there really is a difference, it should be significant. 

And to be perfectly clear, I'm not sure where Duke should be seeded or placed.  I wouldn't have complained if they were a #4 seed - in any region.  On the selection pre-show, the "experts" all thought they had earned a #1 seed by virtue of winning the conference championship.  I didn't buy it - but I've always thought that the regular season champ was really more important and had earned more respect.  Turns out the committee also saw it that way. 

Also, I didn't say they have a1% chance to get to the Final Four - although it's not much higher than that.  I said they have a 1% chance of winning it all.

YukonRon

Foghorn said:

YukonRon said:

Foghorn said:

I still don't get this. How is the team that is considered the consensus #1 team in the country the easiest #1 seed?

And as for Duke being the favorite - if I were not a Duke grad, I'd bet against them. I'm not a gambler, but that's not a gamble. You get over 10% return on an event that has about a 99% likelihood of happening.  That's a great return on investment in 3 weeks or less. 

If Duke was in the South region, I would likely agree with your argument. As has been the case the last few years, you can almost identify the toughest region by knowing Duke does not have to play in it.
Duke Fans. Really?
In Duke's case, the region they are in, the likelihood number of 99%, which you stated, is knee slapping laughable, at best. That number drops significantly, when in essence, they are given a hall pass all the way up to the national championship, as they are this year, and have been, recently each year.
I am not a gambler either, but I know a good wager when I see it. Vegas gives them 5-1 odds because of their path to the tournament championship will not be challenged.
If you have the top horse, with the top jockey, running against a field of future dog food and glue, do you seriously expect anyone to bet the field, as you would think we should, in Duke's region?
C'mon man. Call it like it is; Cakewalk City.
The only people happy with Duke's draw, are Duke alums, and Brown nose Vitale.
If I were a Duke fan, I am making F4 plans.

You are clearly not a moneyball guy either.  It's funny how you are very objective about politics but you throw all reason and rationality out the window where Duke basketball is concerned.

Let's try putting some numbers on this.

By definition, whichever #2 seed got put in the region with the #1 overall seed, got the hardest path to the Final Four.  Period.

If you can show me data - like the collective RPI or KenPom rating or whatever of the other top 8 seeds in Duke's region - in this year, or any other year - that shows they got an easier path, I'll gladly admit it.  But you have to understand that 1) in year's when Duke is the overall #1 seed, they are supposed to be in the easiest region if you take them out of the calculations - and 2) an average KenPom (or whatever metric you choose) rating of 22.003 vs 22.002 isn't worth discussing because the committee will never get things perfectly mathematically balanced.  If there really is a difference, it should be significant. 

And to be perfectly clear, I'm not sure where Duke should be seeded or placed.  I wouldn't have complained if they were a #4 seed - in any region.  On the selection pre-show, the "experts" all thought they had earned a #1 seed by virtue of winning the conference championship.  I didn't buy it - but I've always thought that the regular season champ was really more important and had earned more respect.  Turns out the committee also saw it that way. 

Also, I didn't say they have a1% chance to get to the Final Four - although it's not much higher than that.  I said they have a 1% chance of winning it all.

Try these numbers:
Vegas: Duke 5/1 to win it all. Villinova 8/1. How is that for mathmatically balanced? I think it is significant, if you call almost double, significant? I only mentioned they have a cakewalk to the final 4, never said they would win it, just pointed out, by the numbers, Vegas thinks they will.
Duke's first game is against a team with odds so long, they were given none, and thrown into a group of field teams at 500/1. Next game is against either an 80/1 or 100/1 team. 
Cakewalk. Easy region.


FWIW, I am just having fun. Good for Duke. I am laughing so hard, I have tears in my eyes. I am not even going to tell you about the coffee on the keyboard.

blind99

FF: duke/wvu and Unc/Oregon 
duke UNC for the championship. UNC for the win. 

Foghorn

I'm also having fun with this and glad you are as well. 

That's why I'm able to say with a smile that 1) your argument makes no sense and 2) even if it did make sense, it holds no water even within the parameters you're using.

1)  Vegas odds do not equal performance.  You know as well as I do about all kinds of examples where people do stupid things when they assess odds and risk with their hearts rather than their heads.

2) And of course a high seed is going to play teams in the first two rounds that have long odds of winning the championship.  Who would give good odds to a #9 or higher seed?

Heck, there are only 16 teams at 40:1 or better - so that's the odds on a #4 seed. 

So, which high seeded teams are playing in the first two rounds against teams that are likely to win the NC?

And on a more serious note, if you want to have a conversation about a team that may have gotten seriously mis-seeded, let's talk about Wichita State.

YukonRon

@Foghorn
Potential second round for UK, and if they survive that, next is, potentially, UCLA. then maybe North Carolina. Good thing UK got a number two seed, being the fifth seeded team overall. I would hate to see the list of teams they would have to play if they were lower.
The South. Well, you have to survive to advance at this point. Who knows?

da87

@lousubcap, but didn't Trump go to Penn?  Or would the Quakers winning, since they aren't even in the tournament, be too obvious? 

lousubcap

@da87 -  I was tossing out Syracuse due to the post-selection seeding whining.  However, you are correct regarding Penn and the Donald.  Had Penn won the first Ivy League post-season tournament this year (they were seeded 4 of 4) then who knows what would have happened.
I think @JohnInCarolina has the best response above.  

blind99

So who's setting up a bracket challenge?

YukonRon

blind99 said:

So who's setting up a bracket challenge?

Picking a bracket? Consider this:
1) No team has ever won the tournament at a 9 seed or above.
2) Last 13 National Champions had 25 wins or more heading into the tournament.
3) 22 of the last 23 national champions had an RPI of 17 or better
4) 14 of the last 15 national champions had a top 20 rating in adjustable offensive effeceincy.
5) Conversely, 14 of the last 15 national champions had a top 15 defensive effeceincy.
6) 14 of the last 15 national championships had 30% or above in offensive rebounds.
This year, there is only one team to hit all these numbers. 

Foghorn

YukonRon said:

blind99 said:

So who's setting up a bracket challenge?

Picking a bracket? Consider this:
1) No team has ever won the tournament at a 9 seed or above.
2) Last 13 National Champions had 25 wins or more heading into the tournament.
3) 22 of the last 23 national champions had an RPI of 17 or better
4) 14 of the last 15 national champions had a top 20 rating in adjustable offensive effeceincy.
5) Conversely, 14 of the last 15 national champions had a top 15 defensive effeceincy.
6) 14 of the last 15 national championships had 30% or above in offensive rebounds.
This year, there is only one team to hit all these numbers. 

Interesting stats. Do they account for the Vegas odds?

YukonRon

Foghorn said:

YukonRon said:

blind99 said:

So who's setting up a bracket challenge?

Picking a bracket? Consider this:
1) No team has ever won the tournament at a 9 seed or above.
2) Last 13 National Champions had 25 wins or more heading into the tournament.
3) 22 of the last 23 national champions had an RPI of 17 or better
4) 14 of the last 15 national champions had a top 20 rating in adjustable offensive effeceincy.
5) Conversely, 14 of the last 15 national champions had a top 15 defensive effeceincy.
6) 14 of the last 15 national championships had 30% or above in offensive rebounds.
This year, there is only one team to hit all these numbers. 

Interesting stats. Do they account for the Vegas odds?

Surprisingly close, in fact, 4 of the 6.

JohnInCarolina

If you want to say that Duke has the easiest 1 seed, fine, but you need to explain why you think Villanova is easier than the other 1's.  I've yet to see that.

FWIW, folks who actually do stats/sports for a living (e.g. Nate Silver) have Nova as being the clear top 1 seed.  

blind99

@YukonRon which team is that? Even the top ranked teams have no more than a 15% chance or so of winning it all.

YukonRon

Currently 9-1 in Vegas, is my guess. Worse than the remaining 1's at this time. Numbers change based on the money they want to get, but still.....I think they also do sports stats for a living at most gaming facilities. I might be wrong.

YukonRon

blind99 said:

@YukonRon which team is that? Even the top ranked teams have no more than a 15% chance or so of winning it all.

The University of Kentucky.

YukonRon

YukonRon said:

blind99 said:

@YukonRon which team is that? Even the top ranked teams have no more than a 15% chance or so of winning it all.

The University of Kentucky.

Three types of lies out there; lies, danged lies and statistics.

bgebrent

After further thought, the final will be Arizona (beats Duke) v. Kentucky (beats Louisville).  Kentucky Wildcats bring home another one!