I honestly don’t know where to post this.

JohnInCarolina · July 2023

http://twitter.com/SenatorRomney/status/1681754372638736384?s=20

nolaegghead · July 2023

Nothing but the finest meats for Mitt….

fishlessman · July 2023

guess rasmussen answered all the threats to abc's content, still on fivethirtyeight polling, thats just funny

ABC News: 'Answer Our Questions -- Or Else!'

Thursday, June 29, 2023

The following is the complete text of an email received by Rasmussen Reports this morning:

My name is Elliott Morris, and I am the Editorial Director of Data Analytics at ABC News. I am responsible for our editorial analysis of polls, elections results and other data, including the output at ABC's FiveThirtyEight.

I am emailing you to send a final notice that FiveThirtyEight is considering formally banning Rasmussen Reports from its coverage. Such a ban would result in being removed from listing on our main polls page and being excluded from all of our aggregation and election forecasting models. If banned, Rasmussen Reports would also be removed from our historical averages of polls and from our pollster ratings. Your surveys would no longer appear in reporting and we would write an article explaining our reasons for the ban.

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A pollster at Rasmussen Reports (preferably you) needs to reply to this email with satisfactory comments in order to avoid the ban. To be sure, response alone is not guaranteed to end in the avoidance of a ban; our concerns run much deeper than simple failure to reply to methodological queries — which, for what it's worth, is itself grounds for a ban, and on which we have already given Rasmussen substantial leeway.

First, Rasmussen must explain the nature of its relationship with several right-leaning blogs and online media outlets, which have given us reason to doubt the ethical operation of the polling firm. please tell us whether questions are ever suggested to Rasmussen from these outlets, including Fox News and "Steve Bannon's War Room", where Rasmussen's head pollster regularly appears, with the promise of coverage in return for "public" fieldwork? Do Rasmussen's pollsters work with anyone from these organizations on topics to consider polling, despite listing polls as un-sponsored or sponsored by other groups? Does the pollster have a close personal relationship with any of these figures that might cloud their judgement in the operation of a public poll?

Related to this, does Rasmussen Reports believe the results of the 2022 Arizona Governor election, as certified by the state's department of elections, to be fraudulent based on the results of a 2023 survey conducted by Rasmussen reports and sponsored by College Republicans, as it stated for Mr Bannon on his programming in April of this year? Does Rasmussen Reports believe its polls can provide more precise estimates of election results than certified ballot counts by states' secretaries of state? Does it believe the results of the 2020 election as certified are accurate? What does it view its role as in providing public opinion data on this topic?

Second, Rasmussen must answer the following questions about its methodology, which Mr Mitchell has so far failed to answer for FiveThirtyEight senior reporter Nathaniel Rakich three times:

This survey seems to indicate that Rasmussen’s weighting targets or sampling strategies are not well-tuned, since the outcome of the poll does not match the observable election result. How are you addressing that methodological problem?
This tweet seems to indicate that Rasmussen’s IVR polling is reaching the same people (or, at least, person) multiple times. Is the phone portion of the poll relying on a panel of some type? If not, why would the same citizen get routine calls from the same pollster?
Perhaps related to #2: Your methodology states, "Calls are placed to randomly-selected phone numbers through a process that ensures appropriate geographic representation." What is the process being applied? And what does "randomly-selected" mean here? If not RDD, where are you getting your call lists?
The methodology mentions a "demographically diverse panel" for online respondents. Is this panel proprietary, or are you contracting it out? If the former, how do you recruit and ensure balanced representation on the panel? If the latter, to whom are you contracting out?
The methodology mentions you weight by "age, race, gender, political party, and other factors." What are the other factors?
The methodology also states, "For political surveys, census bureau data provides a starting point and a series of screening questions are used to determine likely voters. The questions involve voting history, interest in the current campaign, and likely voting intentions." Does this mean you are weighting first and screening second? If so, is there additional rebalancing for the LV sample? For example, women are less likely than men to say they're definitely going to vote, but they usually make up at least half of the electorate anyway.

In addition, please tell us:

Where do the benchmarks for your non-census weighting variables, such as political party, come from? Are they constant across surveys in a given year or month or do they change over time? If they change, what are the changes based on?
Does Rasmussen Reports check its likely voter screens against any ongoing estimate of the proportion of the population belonging to a given party?
and; How does Rasmussen Reports account for the biases introduced into its sample by not calling cell phones?

Failure to reply, or failure to notify us of an intent to speedily reply, by the end of the day on Friday, June 30th, 2023 will be taken as a final concession of our grounds for a ban. The ban would take effect imminently thereafter.

Thank you for your time,

Elliott Morris

ABC News

HeavyG · July 2023

Rassmusen has long been a GOP/right wing biased polling operation.

fishlessman · July 2023

HeavyG said:

Rassmusen has long been a GOP/right wing biased polling operation.

That's well known. Maybe they should demand questions answered by CNN and MSNBC. Seems fair. Abc is out to lunch. I DEMAND YOU ANSWER ME....

JohnInCarolina · July 2023

fishlessman said:

HeavyG said:

Rassmusen has long been a GOP/right wing biased polling operation.

That's well known. Maybe they should demand questions answered by CNN and MSNBC. Seems fair. Abc is out to lunch. I DEMAND YOU ANSWER ME....

Well, they’re asking for answers to their questions if Rasmussen wants to continue to be mentioned by 538. In other words, if Rasmussen wants ABC to keep promoting their polling through 538, they’ll have to answer the questions. They are asking these questions because Rasmussen has a sketchy history, whereas most of the other polling outfits do not.

HeavyG · July 2023

fishlessman said:

HeavyG said:

Rassmusen has long been a GOP/right wing biased polling operation.

That's well known. Maybe they should demand questions answered by CNN and MSNBC. Seems fair. Abc is out to lunch. I DEMAND YOU ANSWER ME....

What @JohnInCarolina said.

fishlessman · July 2023

JohnInCarolina said:

fishlessman said:

HeavyG said:

Rassmusen has long been a GOP/right wing biased polling operation.

That's well known. Maybe they should demand questions answered by CNN and MSNBC. Seems fair. Abc is out to lunch. I DEMAND YOU ANSWER ME....

Well, they’re asking for answers to their questions if Rasmussen wants to continue to be mentioned by 538. In other words, if Rasmussen wants ABC to keep promoting their polling through 538, they’ll have to answer the questions. They are asking these questions because Rasmussen has a sketchy history, whereas most of the other polling outfits do not.

Asking is different than demanding. They also seem to have missed their line in the sand deadline by 20 days. Start using the word demand at home😝

JohnInCarolina · July 2023

fishlessman said:

JohnInCarolina said:

fishlessman said:

HeavyG said:

Rassmusen has long been a GOP/right wing biased polling operation.

That's well known. Maybe they should demand questions answered by CNN and MSNBC. Seems fair. Abc is out to lunch. I DEMAND YOU ANSWER ME....

Well, they’re asking for answers to their questions if Rasmussen wants to continue to be mentioned by 538. In other words, if Rasmussen wants ABC to keep promoting their polling through 538, they’ll have to answer the questions. They are asking these questions because Rasmussen has a sketchy history, whereas most of the other polling outfits do not.

Asking is different than demanding. They also seem to have missed their line in the sand deadline by 20 days. Start using the word demand at home😝

You’re just not thinking of it as transactional at all. Basically, ABC is telling Rasmussen that he has to pay to play.

fishlessman · July 2023

looks more like rasmussen is sticking it in abc's face without even saying a thing. abc has more to lose over this

JohnInCarolina · July 2023

fishlessman said:

looks more like rasmussen is sticking it in abc's face without even saying a thing. abc has more to lose over this

Yeah I don’t know how ABC will survive unless 538 keeps publishing Rasmussen’s polls…

fishlessman · July 2023

JohnInCarolina said:

fishlessman said:

looks more like rasmussen is sticking it in abc's face without even saying a thing. abc has more to lose over this

Yeah I don’t know how ABC will survive unless 538 keeps publishing Rasmussen’s polls…

have heard from two people this week that say they wont watch abc local this week. people are quick to boycott lately. rasmussens followers could care less about the 538 anyways and yet they still post rasmussen results. doesnt really matter to me either way, just think a demand letter is out to lunch and that rasmussen thought it was fit to print for their viewers

JohnInCarolina · July 2023

fishlessman said:

JohnInCarolina said:

fishlessman said:

looks more like rasmussen is sticking it in abc's face without even saying a thing. abc has more to lose over this

Yeah I don’t know how ABC will survive unless 538 keeps publishing Rasmussen’s polls…

have heard from two people this week that say they wont watch abc local this week.

Devastating.

fishlessman · July 2023

JohnInCarolina said:

fishlessman said:

JohnInCarolina said:

fishlessman said:

looks more like rasmussen is sticking it in abc's face without even saying a thing. abc has more to lose over this

Yeah I don’t know how ABC will survive unless 538 keeps publishing Rasmussen’s polls…

have heard from two people this week that say they wont watch abc local this week.

Devastating.

thats what budlight thought

JohnInCarolina · July 2023

fishlessman said:

JohnInCarolina said:

fishlessman said:

JohnInCarolina said:

fishlessman said:

looks more like rasmussen is sticking it in abc's face without even saying a thing. abc has more to lose over this

Yeah I don’t know how ABC will survive unless 538 keeps publishing Rasmussen’s polls…

have heard from two people this week that say they wont watch abc local this week.

Devastating.

thats what budlight thought

Yes, you are right.

fishlessman · July 2023

JohnInCarolina said:

fishlessman said:

JohnInCarolina said:

fishlessman said:

JohnInCarolina said:

fishlessman said:

looks more like rasmussen is sticking it in abc's face without even saying a thing. abc has more to lose over this

Yeah I don’t know how ABC will survive unless 538 keeps publishing Rasmussen’s polls…

have heard from two people this week that say they wont watch abc local this week.

Devastating.

thats what budlight thought

Yes, you are right.

nbc and msnbc will be happy to take a few more viewers in.

JohnInCarolina · July 2023

http://twitter.com/BagdMilkSoWhat/status/1682410237658120193?s=20

lousubcap · July 2023

And there you have it-some candidate's got to climb it (dang near impossible today) or CHEETO will be the R nominee. F'me. How did we get here? It certainly wasn't by funding education and thinking.

CHEETO makes Nixon look like a saint.