looking better here

The Cen-Tex Smoker

JohnInCarolina said:

I don’t know about the rest of you, but I look at this and it pisses me off.  How are we so bad at this compared to just about everyone else?!?!?  We are the only western country that is seeing a self-inflicted second spike.

C'mon Africa! Hurry up and make us look good!

The Cen-Tex Smoker

JohnInCarolina said:

Can you imagine the aneurysm after 7 pm on Fox News if any democrat (much less the President of the United States) quoted an 80 year old conspiracy minded retired dating game show host saying a disease that has killed 130,000 Americans was a hoax?

I guess it would give Tucker Carlson a night off from race-baiting so it wouldn't be all bad.

Legume

The Cen-Tex Smoker said:

JohnInCarolina said:

I don’t know about the rest of you, but I look at this and it pisses me off.  How are we so bad at this compared to just about everyone else?!?!?  We are the only western country that is seeing a self-inflicted second spike.

C'mon Africa! Hurry up and make us look good!

Going way out on a limb here - their testing ramp up probably lags ours (if that’s possible).  Some will see that as a good thing, some won’t.

fishlessman

JohnInCarolina said:

https://www.vox.com/2020/7/12/21321653/getting-covid-19-twice-reinfection-antibody-herd-immunity

Herd immunity, RIP

add into the mix we are dealing with east coast and west coast strains. we have about 30 motorcycles shipping out to sturgis from the shop across the street next week meeting up with people from practically every state. the average age is maybe 65 taking that trip,  a new experiment.

The Cen-Tex Smoker

Legume said:

The Cen-Tex Smoker said:

JohnInCarolina said:

I don’t know about the rest of you, but I look at this and it pisses me off.  How are we so bad at this compared to just about everyone else?!?!?  We are the only western country that is seeing a self-inflicted second spike.

C'mon Africa! Hurry up and make us look good!

Going way out on a limb here - their testing ramp up probably lags ours (if that’s possible).  Some will see that as a good thing, some won’t.

Well we do have the greatest testing in the world so we are winning at that.

Botch

fishlessman said:
add into the mix we are dealing with east coast and west coast strains. we have about 30 motorcycles shipping out to sturgis from the shop across the street next week meeting up with people from practically every state. the average age is maybe 65 taking that trip,  a new experiment.

The two-week-after point, from our nationwide 4th of July celebrations, is this coming Saturday.  We will see...  

Legume

The Cen-Tex Smoker said:

Legume said:

The Cen-Tex Smoker said:

JohnInCarolina said:

I don’t know about the rest of you, but I look at this and it pisses me off.  How are we so bad at this compared to just about everyone else?!?!?  We are the only western country that is seeing a self-inflicted second spike.

C'mon Africa! Hurry up and make us look good!

Going way out on a limb here - their testing ramp up probably lags ours (if that’s possible).  Some will see that as a good thing, some won’t.

Well we do have the greatest testing in the world so we are winning at that.

Some have said too much winning, slow the winning down and we’ll have fewer cases.

johnmitchell

Legume said:

The Cen-Tex Smoker said:

JohnInCarolina said:

I don’t know about the rest of you, but I look at this and it pisses me off.  How are we so bad at this compared to just about everyone else?!?!?  We are the only western country that is seeing a self-inflicted second spike.

C'mon Africa! Hurry up and make us look good!

Going way out on a limb here - their testing ramp up probably lags ours (if that’s possible).  Some will see that as a good thing, some won’t.

Speaking to family and friends in SA things are getting out of hand there in a hurry, last night the president banned all alcohol sales and cigarettes have been banned for a while, the folks there haven’t adhered to any kind of social distancing and personal hygiene is really difficult due to the lack of amenities. Unfortunately you are going to see a huge spike and hospitals are being overwhelmed 

fishlessman

Botch said:

fishlessman said:
add into the mix we are dealing with east coast and west coast strains. we have about 30 motorcycles shipping out to sturgis from the shop across the street next week meeting up with people from practically every state. the average age is maybe 65 taking that trip,  a new experiment.

The two-week-after point, from our nationwide 4th of July celebrations, is this coming Saturday.  We will see...  

for the most part the 4th was shut down and most home town day weekends are shut down up here. i dont see anything good coming from this bike rally, even nh passed on biker week in laconia and its one of the safer states right now

The Cen-Tex Smoker

fishlessman said:

JohnInCarolina said:

https://www.vox.com/2020/7/12/21321653/getting-covid-19-twice-reinfection-antibody-herd-immunity

Herd immunity, RIP

add into the mix we are dealing with east coast and west coast strains. we have about 30 motorcycles shipping out to sturgis from the shop across the street next week meeting up with people from practically every state. the average age is maybe 65 taking that trip,  a new experiment.

Holy Moly. They didn't cancel Sturgis?

fishlessman

nope,  i know a few people driving the packed trailers. the drivers plan on site seeing and staying away from the event for the most part.  going to be really putting a strong effort to social distance when they get back. the others will be flying out to boot, insane

Canugghead

I heard the baby boom was caused by too much pregnancy testing 

fishlessman

florida, 15300 new cases yesterday. gotta be a guinness book record, they did this on a sunday. the new case findings jump up mid week, not on weekends

frazzdaddy

The Cen-Tex Smoker said:

fishlessman said:

JohnInCarolina said:

https://www.vox.com/2020/7/12/21321653/getting-covid-19-twice-reinfection-antibody-herd-immunity

Herd immunity, RIP

add into the mix we are dealing with east coast and west coast strains. we have about 30 motorcycles shipping out to sturgis from the shop across the street next week meeting up with people from practically every state. the average age is maybe 65 taking that trip,  a new experiment.

Holy Moly. They didn't cancel Sturgis?

Freedumb....

caliking

Canugghead said:

I heard the baby boom was caused by too much pregnancy testing 

Lit

JohnInCarolina said:

https://www.vox.com/2020/7/12/21321653/getting-covid-19-twice-reinfection-antibody-herd-immunity

Herd immunity, RIP

You are a math guy you should have known herd immunity never was possible. The R-naught is between 2 and 3 which they estimate around 60% of the population would need to have immunity to get the R-naught to 1 where the virus isnt growing in numbers. With 330 million people that means around 200 million people need immunity and if the immunity last 10 months we would need 20 million people a month or about 13k people a day per state to test positive. 

JohnInCarolina

Lit said:

JohnInCarolina said:

https://www.vox.com/2020/7/12/21321653/getting-covid-19-twice-reinfection-antibody-herd-immunity

Herd immunity, RIP

You are a math guy you should have known herd immunity never was possible. The R-naught is between 2 and 3 which they estimate around 60% of the population would need to have immunity to get the R-naught to 1 where the virus isnt growing in numbers. With 330 million people that means around 200 million people need immunity and if the immunity last 10 months we would need 20 million people a month or about 13k people a day per state to test positive. 

Ha.  We've actually had extensive discussions here around herd immunity and its likelihood with covid-19.  I was not under the impression that it was a realistic outcome or that it should be used to drive policy, but we do have a lot of people in the country who seem to think otherwise and are even hoping for it.  That's an issue.  

Lit

JohnInCarolina said:

Lit said:

JohnInCarolina said:

https://www.vox.com/2020/7/12/21321653/getting-covid-19-twice-reinfection-antibody-herd-immunity

Herd immunity, RIP

You are a math guy you should have known herd immunity never was possible. The R-naught is between 2 and 3 which they estimate around 60% of the population would need to have immunity to get the R-naught to 1 where the virus isnt growing in numbers. With 330 million people that means around 200 million people need immunity and if the immunity last 10 months we would need 20 million people a month or about 13k people a day per state to test positive. 

Ha.  We've actually had extensive discussions here around herd immunity and its likelihood with covid-19.  I was not under the impression that it was a realistic outcome or that it should be used to drive policy, but we do have a lot of people in the country who seem to think otherwise and are even hoping for it.  That's an issue.  

Hey look we agree on something 

fishlessman

Lit said:

JohnInCarolina said:

https://www.vox.com/2020/7/12/21321653/getting-covid-19-twice-reinfection-antibody-herd-immunity

Herd immunity, RIP

You are a math guy you should have known herd immunity never was possible. The R-naught is between 2 and 3 which they estimate around 60% of the population would need to have immunity to get the R-naught to 1 where the virus isnt growing in numbers. With 330 million people that means around 200 million people need immunity and if the immunity last 10 months we would need 20 million people a month or about 13k people a day per state to test positive. 

floridas on track for herd immunity, why are the other states slacking

Kayak

Sweden is no where near getting to herd immunity, and that's their whole schtick. "Why doesn't anyone want us in their countries?"

builderdawg

HeavyG said:

Thought that was from The Onion at first.

Sadly, neither was this...

Died on July 4th. Was 37 years old.

I am a construction executive and our business has remained open throughout the pandemic.  I have been wearing a mask everyday before it was cool, and I'll continue to do so until we've licked this thing.  With that said, the disparity in the case direction IMHO has more to do with summer harvest than wearing masks.  The areas that are currently being hit hard are primarily in the sunbelt.  It is summer harvest time in the southeast and southwest, and the virus has been very active amongst migrant workers.  They travel together in vans and live together in close quarters (this is not a commentary on migrant workers).  They carry the virus with them to the communities they travel to, and I think this has been the number one source of the recent spread, but it is not the source the news media has focused on.  Agricultural areas in the Northeast and midwest will get hit in October, assuming the virus is still active then.

nolaegghead

Direct on-farm  employment in the US is about 1.3 percent of all jobs, I doubt this drives the majority of community spread, although I can certainly see there being a problem with migrant workers based on their working an living conditions. 

caliking

builderdawg said:

HeavyG said:

Thought that was from The Onion at first.

Sadly, neither was this...

Died on July 4th. Was 37 years old.

I am a construction executive and our business has remained open throughout the pandemic.  I have been wearing a mask everyday before it was cool, and I'll continue to do so until we've licked this thing.  With that said, the disparity in the case direction IMHO has more to do with summer harvest than wearing masks.  The areas that are currently being hit hard are primarily in the sunbelt.  It is summer harvest time in the southeast and southwest, and the virus has been very active amongst migrant workers.  They travel together in vans and live together in close quarters (this is not a commentary on migrant workers).  They carry the virus with them to the communities they travel to, and I think this has been the number one source of the recent spread, but it is not the source the news media has focused on.  Agricultural areas in the Northeast and midwest will get hit in October, assuming the virus is still active then.

It’s possible that the news media has not focused on migrant workers being the number one vector for COVID transmission, because... they possibly aren’t the number one vector for COVID transmission. 

Caliqueen is an infectious disease researcher (doesn’t work on COVID). Her boss is an ID specialist (caring for COVID patients)  and the top two sources of COVID spread for patients at MD Anderson have been pool parties and family gatherings. 

Heard earlier today that JP Morgan studied credit card expenditure at restaurants.  There was a positive correlation between increased CC spending at restaurants, and increased COVID cases in those markets. COVID surges typically lagged 2-3 weeks behind surges in restaurant spending. 

Many factors are driving the spread of COVID. People’s idiocy, and lack of consideration for others in their community,  are two big ones. 

dmourati

caliking said:

pool parties and family gatherings. 

WTF. Two things *not* in my future. Why not just all them "Covid parties."

Botch

dmourati said:

caliking said:

pool parties and family gatherings. 

WTF. Two things *not* in my future. Why not just all them "Covid parties."

Not until they collect Infection pots for the "winner"...    

caliking

dmourati said:

caliking said:

pool parties and family gatherings. 

WTF. Two things *not* in my future. Why not just all them "Covid parties."

You'd be surprised. One neighbor behind me had a big backyard party (tent, etc) for Mother's Day, and again for 7/4. Other neighbor behind me just had a pool built, and had pool parties every day of the 7/4 weekend.

One of my staff informed me today that 7 of her extended family were infected at a family gathering, 2 of whom (her cousin and his wife, in their 50's) died this past weekend. 

Botch

caliking said:
One of my staff informed me today that 7 of her extended family were infected at a family gathering, 2 of whom (her cousin and his wife, in their 50's) died this past weekend. 

No words.  

StillH2OEgger

How long before we see social host liability charges (or maybe civil litigation) against someone hosting a party during a pandemic? It's obviously someone's decision to attend, but when has that stopped someone from trying to get their pound of flesh?

HeavyG

StillH2OEgger said:

How long before we see social host liability charges (or maybe civil litigation) against someone hosting a party during a pandemic? It's obviously someone's decision to attend, but when has that stopped someone from trying to get their pound of flesh?

Suing is easy. Winning/collecting tends to be more difficult than many people think.

Legume

HeavyG said:

StillH2OEgger said:

How long before we see social host liability charges (or maybe civil litigation) against someone hosting a party during a pandemic? It's obviously someone's decision to attend, but when has that stopped someone from trying to get their pound of flesh?

Suing is easy. Winning/collecting tends to be more difficult than many people think.

A few suits like that in the news against bars having pool parties, people throwing big parties, etc., would probably be a good deterrent.  Oh wait, these people already have poor judgement.  Nevermind.