Israel is Settling All Family Business, That it Can

...who isn't playing is important too...

CDR Salamander

Oct 02, 2024

Hamas was always a proxy for Iran. It could not have been able to be the threat it was without two things: 1) Iran; 2) UN. There can be no returning to the world of October 6th, 2023.

Whatever status Gaza winds up having in the future, it will not be like the past. While there remains much hard work to be done in Gaza, the hardest military part is done. It will be pacified thoroughly, and then the really hard part—what will happen to the population and territory of Gaza—will have to be worked out.

Egypt wants nothing to do with it. The Arab nations have already let it be known they don’t want that radicalized population, and Israel cannot let another Hamas like governance take over that strip of land that points in to Israel like a dagger.

It appears that Israel is following a variation of my COA-A I posted four days after last year’s attacks. The bitter fruit of a half-century of bad theory will have to be fixed, somehow.

Lebanon

From its birth as a Shia militia boosted by Iran, Hezbollah has, even more than Hamas, been a proxy for Iran. Only vaguely connected to the Palestinian cause, it has simply become an advanced military force for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

For a year, well over 60,000 Israeli citizens have been internally displaced from their homes in Northern Israel due to unending rocket attack from Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon. As they rightfully focused on the war in Gaza, (as President Lincoln advised, “One war at a time”), Israel took the blows with minimal response until the last few weeks.

The formerly Christian led government of Lebanon cannot police their own nation, and have not been able to for decades, and the UN is more of a problem than a solution, Israel will have to take steps to secure her own safety.

Like the Gaza situation, this will create problems down the road because the hostile population is not going anywhere. That is an issue for later. For now, the rockets must stop.

Yemen/Houthi

The same malignant theories of how the world works that begat the present problems in Lebanon and Gaza also managed to encourage Saudi Arabia, UAE, and others to disengage from the Yemeni civil war—enabling the Houthis to become a threat to international shipping in the Red Sea and the seas around the Horn of Africa. When they make a mistake of successfully attacking Israel, Israel responds accordingly. The rest of the international community “led” by the USA is not so good at keeping this sub-4th-rate power from being a threat. Unless there is a significant policy change, this will continue to fester only because we allow it to.

Sunni Arab Nations

The greatest effort towards peace since the Camp David Accords in the late 1970s was the Abraham Accords during the Trump Administration. The Gulf Arab nations, modernizing at a break-neck pace, simply want to be part of the modern world. Part of that modern world is normal relations with Israel and the good that can come from it. The big prize is Saudi Arabia. She isn’t officially there yet, but if you read some of the reports of how the Saudis are distancing themselves from the events of the last year, odds are they will when the time is ripe. Their major focus, rightfully, is…

Iran

We are all suffering from one of the greatest fails of The Smartest People in the Room™ during the Carter Administration—the enabling of the creation of The Islamic Republic of Iran. While at the end of the first quarter of the 21st Century shows the scourge of Sunni Wahhabi fundamentalist threats to modernity waning (mostly), the Shia terror from Iran and her proxies continues unabated. We have also seen two occasions, the second over the last couple of days, of Iranian direct attacks on Israel. The second round looked better planned than the first, but reports are incomplete. Israel will respond, at a time and place of her choosing, but I hope she keeps to the “one war at a time” patience. It would be helpful if her best friend, the USA, had a different foreign/defense policy team with a better understanding of how the world works, but we have what we have.

USA

The USA has not abandoned Israel by any measure. Just the opposite. We continue to deploy tens of thousands of service members to the area, and are keeping the balance of our deployable naval units in the Eastern Mediterranean, Red Sea, and Persian Gulf. During the latest attacks, reports have USS Cole (DDG 67), and USS Bulkeley (DDG 84), launching over a dozen SM-3/6 against Iran’s ballistic missiles. More valuable range time, but unsustainable until we drastically expand our production capacity. I am sure the expenditure numbers of the last year are only on the high-side, but I’d bet a year’s paid subscription to this Substack that it exceeds our annual production in 2024. Israel will need everything from spare parts to bombs to artillery ammunition over the course of the next few months. With their historic antisemitism leavened by imported Jew-hating populations, most of the European leftist governments, will with few exceptions, not help Israel and if anything will support her enemies. Europe is split, which means inaction. The new Labour government in the UK is problematic in this regard as well.

It is up to the USA to back Israel. That’s OK. It is the right place to be, but there is this important point. Israel is doing well and it knows what needs to be done. There are indications and warnings that for much of the last year, the 3,000-mile screwdriver from DC is hamstringing many of her efforts to do what must be done. That needs to end.

So, Israel, little Israel, is about to head in to her second year of war. The Gaza front at a slow boil, the Lebanon front in a rolling boil, the Houthis a pebble in the shoe, and Iran, in the distance, glaring and planning its 3rd wave.

Like it or not, the USA will be right in the middle of it. We should be in it to win it just as Israel might.

No more second chances for bad international theory. It had its few decades. There is a lot of work to be done to repair the damage.

The greatest geo-strategic beneficiary of all this? The People’s Republic of China."

"Russian President Vladimir Putin yesterday approved a new law giving criminal defendants and suspects immunity if they join the army. The new rule is expected to see an additional 20,000 men under investigation or awaiting trial be freed to join the front lines. Francesca Ebel and Natalia Abbakumova report for the Washington Post.

Ukraine’s military confirmed on Wednesday that it was withdrawing troops from the frontline town, which occupies a key location in the Donetsk region, to “protect the military personnel and equipment”.

As a result of the enemy’s actions, there arose a threat of encircling the city,” said the military’s Khortytsia ground forces formation in a statement posted on Telegram.

“Flanking attacks” had, it said, “exhausted” Ukrainian troops.

The withdrawal comes a day after the governor of Donetsk – one of the four Ukrainian regions Russia annexed in 2022 despite not being in full control of its territory – reported that Russian troops had reached the centre of Vuhledar.

Vuhledar’s strategic importance is further heightened by its proximity to a rail line connecting Crimea – the Black Sea peninsula annexed by Russia in 2014 – to the industrial Donbas region, which comprises Donetsk and Luhansk regions, most of which Moscow controls.

While Ukrainian forces were in full control of Vuhledar, they were able to use the town as a platform to shell Russian military supply lines in the area."

"Israel carried out airstrikes overnight on an underground bunker where senior Hezbollah leaders were believed to be meeting, including Hassan Nasrallah’s presumed successor, Hashem Safieddine, according to Israeli officials. Safieddine’s fate remains unknown. Ronen Bergman, Euan Ward, Ephrat Livni, Aaron Boxerman, and Anushka Patil report for the New York Times; CNN reports.

President Biden said the United States is discussing with Israel the possibility of attacking Iran’s oil infrastructure. Tom Bennett reports for BBC News.

Israel is suspected of launching missiles overnight into Syria, striking close to a Russian air base believed to store weapons for Iran. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said Russian and Syrian air defenses attempted to intercept the missiles, and that there appeared to be secondary explosions, suggesting munitions had been hit. Iona Cleave reports for the Telegraph."

"U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces on Friday conducted strikes on 15 Houthi targets in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen.

The operation, taking place at approximately 5 p.m. Sanaa time targeted Houthi offensive military capabilities in an effort to safeguard maritime security.

“These actions were taken to protect freedom of navigation and make international waters safer and more secure for U.S., coalition, and merchant vessels,” CENTCOM stated."

"Russian forces have reached another key city on the eastern frontline, Ukraine’s military said late yesterday. Moscow’s advance toward Toretsk comes less than a week after it captured the key city of Vuhledar. Oleksandr Kozhukhar and Lidia Kelly report for Reuters.

Ranked: America’s Hardest-Working States

Wallethub states North Dakota is the hardest-working American state, giving it a rounded score of 67/100. The state’s 98% employment rate helped in securing first place.

"Israel’s security cabinet will vote today on its response to Iran’s missile attack, an Israeli official told CNN. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant had earlier said that the retaliation would be “powerful, precise, and above all–surprising.” 

Lebanon’s caretaker prime minister said today that contacts were underway between the United States and France with the aim of reviving a ceasefire.There was no immediate comment from Washington or Paris. James Mackenzie and Timour Azhari report for Reuters. 

President Biden spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu yesterday about Israel’s plans to retaliate against Iran. “On Lebanon, the President emphasized the need for a diplomatic arrangement to safely return both Lebanese and Israeli civilians to their homes on both sides” and told Netanyahu to “minimize harm to civilians,” the White House said in a readout. Barak Ravid reports for Axios.

In the same call, Biden also spoke with Netanyahu about “the urgent need to renew diplomacy to release the hostages held by Hamas.” Additionally, the two leaders “discussed the humanitarian situation in Gaza and the imperative to restore access to the north, including by reinvigorating the corridor from Jordan immediately.”

Iran’s foreign minister arrived in Saudi Arabia yesterday as part of a diplomatic tour aimed at shoring up relations with Tehran’s Arab neighbors. “I hope that these consultations can lead to better conditions for Palestine and Lebanon and establish peace in the region,” Abbas Araghchi said. Ben Hubbard reports for the New York Times."

"September was Russia’s deadliest month of the war so far, with its eastern Ukraine offensive pushing the total number of Russian troop casualties to more than 600,000, senior Pentagon officials said on Wednesday. Eric Schmitt reports for the New York Times.