OT subject but worth a main-stream read- OT News Feeds...

lousubcap · October 2

Long but good read about the Middle East as of now:

Israel is Settling All Family Business, That it Can

...who isn't playing is important too...

Oct 02, 2024

Less than a week since the invasion of Israel from Gaza and the resulting pogrom that witnessed the largest one day murder, rape, kidnapping and tortures of Jews since World War Two—it is clear that Israel has decided that it was finally time to reset and repair the damage from decades of bad international theory and delusion.

There are really two international delusions we are seeing in play, one Israel has more control over, one has yet to be fully revealed to be the folly it is.

You can see the threads heading back decades earlier, but the first delusion hit its peak during the Clinton Administration in the 1990s, the withdrawal from the Southern Lebanon security zone in 2000, and finished its summit with Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza in 2005.

The delusion was that The Smartest People in the Room™ in DC, New York, Brussels, and Tel Aviv could, if they talked enough, wished enough, and said nice things to each other enough, would find a way to get the various Palestinian. Hope, wishes, and a mistaken trust in international organizations convinced Israel to give peace a chance.

Peace had a chance, and it culminated on October 7th, 2023.

Now, it appears, Israel will take the world as it is, not as it and others wished it to be. The key part of “this world” that some schools of international security affairs for decades have refused to recognize is the common, evil thread connecting them all: The Islamic Republic of Iran.

Gaza

Hamas was always a proxy for Iran. It could not have been able to be the threat it was without two things: 1) Iran; 2) UN. There can be no returning to the world of October 6th, 2023.

Whatever status Gaza winds up having in the future, it will not be like the past. While there remains much hard work to be done in Gaza, the hardest military part is done. It will be pacified thoroughly, and then the really hard part—what will happen to the population and territory of Gaza—will have to be worked out.

Egypt wants nothing to do with it. The Arab nations have already let it be known they don’t want that radicalized population, and Israel cannot let another Hamas like governance take over that strip of land that points in to Israel like a dagger.

It appears that Israel is following a variation of my COA-A I posted four days after last year’s attacks. The bitter fruit of a half-century of bad theory will have to be fixed, somehow.

Lebanon

From its birth as a Shia militia boosted by Iran, Hezbollah has, even more than Hamas, been a proxy for Iran. Only vaguely connected to the Palestinian cause, it has simply become an advanced military force for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

For a year, well over 60,000 Israeli citizens have been internally displaced from their homes in Northern Israel due to unending rocket attack from Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon. As they rightfully focused on the war in Gaza, (as President Lincoln advised, “One war at a time”), Israel took the blows with minimal response until the last few weeks.

The formerly Christian led government of Lebanon cannot police their own nation, and have not been able to for decades, and the UN is more of a problem than a solution, Israel will have to take steps to secure her own safety.

Like the Gaza situation, this will create problems down the road because the hostile population is not going anywhere. That is an issue for later. For now, the rockets must stop.

Yemen/Houthi

The same malignant theories of how the world works that begat the present problems in Lebanon and Gaza also managed to encourage Saudi Arabia, UAE, and others to disengage from the Yemeni civil war—enabling the Houthis to become a threat to international shipping in the Red Sea and the seas around the Horn of Africa. When they make a mistake of successfully attacking Israel, Israel responds accordingly. The rest of the international community “led” by the USA is not so good at keeping this sub-4th-rate power from being a threat. Unless there is a significant policy change, this will continue to fester only because we allow it to.

Sunni Arab Nations

The greatest effort towards peace since the Camp David Accords in the late 1970s was the Abraham Accords during the Trump Administration. The Gulf Arab nations, modernizing at a break-neck pace, simply want to be part of the modern world. Part of that modern world is normal relations with Israel and the good that can come from it. The big prize is Saudi Arabia. She isn’t officially there yet, but if you read some of the reports of how the Saudis are distancing themselves from the events of the last year, odds are they will when the time is ripe. Their major focus, rightfully, is…

Iran

We are all suffering from one of the greatest fails of The Smartest People in the Room™ during the Carter Administration—the enabling of the creation of The Islamic Republic of Iran. While at the end of the first quarter of the 21st Century shows the scourge of Sunni Wahhabi fundamentalist threats to modernity waning (mostly), the Shia terror from Iran and her proxies continues unabated. We have also seen two occasions, the second over the last couple of days, of Iranian direct attacks on Israel. The second round looked better planned than the first, but reports are incomplete. Israel will respond, at a time and place of her choosing, but I hope she keeps to the “one war at a time” patience. It would be helpful if her best friend, the USA, had a different foreign/defense policy team with a better understanding of how the world works, but we have what we have.

USA

The USA has not abandoned Israel by any measure. Just the opposite. We continue to deploy tens of thousands of service members to the area, and are keeping the balance of our deployable naval units in the Eastern Mediterranean, Red Sea, and Persian Gulf. During the latest attacks, reports have USS Cole (DDG 67), and USS Bulkeley (DDG 84), launching over a dozen SM-3/6 against Iran’s ballistic missiles. More valuable range time, but unsustainable until we drastically expand our production capacity. I am sure the expenditure numbers of the last year are only on the high-side, but I’d bet a year’s paid subscription to this Substack that it exceeds our annual production in 2024. Israel will need everything from spare parts to bombs to artillery ammunition over the course of the next few months. With their historic antisemitism leavened by imported Jew-hating populations, most of the European leftist governments, will with few exceptions, not help Israel and if anything will support her enemies. Europe is split, which means inaction. The new Labour government in the UK is problematic in this regard as well.

It is up to the USA to back Israel. That’s OK. It is the right place to be, but there is this important point. Israel is doing well and it knows what needs to be done. There are indications and warnings that for much of the last year, the 3,000-mile screwdriver from DC is hamstringing many of her efforts to do what must be done. That needs to end.

So, Israel, little Israel, is about to head in to her second year of war. The Gaza front at a slow boil, the Lebanon front in a rolling boil, the Houthis a pebble in the shoe, and Iran, in the distance, glaring and planning its 3rd wave.

Like it or not, the USA will be right in the middle of it. We should be in it to win it just as Israel might.

No more second chances for bad international theory. It had its few decades. There is a lot of work to be done to repair the damage.

The greatest geo-strategic beneficiary of all this? The People’s Republic of China."

lousubcap · October 3

Thursday Middle East update:

"President Biden yesterday said that he does not support any potential Israeli retaliatory strike on Iranian nuclear sites. Israel “has the right to respond, but they should respond proportionally,” he said. Max Matza reports for BBC News.

The White House is working to limit the Israeli response to Iran’s ballistic missile attack on Tuesday. Israel does not feel the need to respond in an immediate and significant way, U.S. officials say, citing conversations with Israeli officials. Yasmeen Abutaleb, John Hudson, Karen DeYoung and Michael Birnbaum report for the Washington Post.

Israel has banned U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres from entering the country. Israel’s foreign minister said Guterres failed to “unequivocally condemn Iran’s criminal attack on Israel” and “does not deserve to set foot on Israel’s soil.” Seb Starcevic reports for POLITICO.

The Israeli military said today it killed the head of the Hamas government in Gaza and two other Hamas leaders in a strike approximately three months ago. Mithil Aggarwal and Rebecca Emery report for NBC News.

Preparations are underway for a second round of polio vaccinations in Gaza, which is expected to start in mid-October, according to the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.

Hamas has been let down by its Arab neighbors in the wake of Oct. 7, a senior official said, adding that Iran “was maybe the only country…supporting the resistance.” Keir Simmons reports for NBC News."

lousubcap · October 3

Thursday Russia-Ukraine update:

"Russian President Vladimir Putin yesterday approved a new law giving criminal defendants and suspects immunity if they join the army. The new rule is expected to see an additional 20,000 men under investigation or awaiting trial be freed to join the front lines. Francesca Ebel and Natalia Abbakumova report for the Washington Post.

Ukraine’s military confirmed on Wednesday that it was withdrawing troops from the frontline town, which occupies a key location in the Donetsk region, to “protect the military personnel and equipment”.

As a result of the enemy’s actions, there arose a threat of encircling the city,” said the military’s Khortytsia ground forces formation in a statement posted on Telegram.

“Flanking attacks” had, it said, “exhausted” Ukrainian troops.

The withdrawal comes a day after the governor of Donetsk – one of the four Ukrainian regions Russia annexed in 2022 despite not being in full control of its territory – reported that Russian troops had reached the centre of Vuhledar.

A supply hub for both sides in the war, the town is located at the intersection of the eastern and southern fronts. Its capture has long been seen by Moscow as offering a major step towards incorporating the entire Donetsk region.

Vuhledar’s strategic importance is further heightened by its proximity to a rail line connecting Crimea – the Black Sea peninsula annexed by Russia in 2014 – to the industrial Donbas region, which comprises Donetsk and Luhansk regions, most of which Moscow controls.

While Ukrainian forces were in full control of Vuhledar, they were able to use the town as a platform to shell Russian military supply lines in the area."

lousubcap · October 3

Melania Trump makes abortion rights push

Former first lady Melania Trump rocked the political world by coming out as a staunch supporter of abortion rights – publicly breaking with her husband on a crucial campaign issue just a month before Election Day.

https://nxslink.thehill.com/view/64e0d818fa01688bf40b2e83m00f3.nqc/65950491

lousubcap · October 4

Friday Middle East update:

"Israel carried out airstrikes overnight on an underground bunker where senior Hezbollah leaders were believed to be meeting, including Hassan Nasrallah’s presumed successor, Hashem Safieddine, according to Israeli officials. Safieddine’s fate remains unknown. Ronen Bergman, Euan Ward, Ephrat Livni, Aaron Boxerman, and Anushka Patil report for the New York Times; CNN reports.

President Biden said the United States is discussing with Israel the possibility of attacking Iran’s oil infrastructure. Tom Bennett reports for BBC News.

Israel is suspected of launching missiles overnight into Syria, striking close to a Russian air base believed to store weapons for Iran. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said Russian and Syrian air defenses attempted to intercept the missiles, and that there appeared to be secondary explosions, suggesting munitions had been hit. Iona Cleave reports for the Telegraph."

lousubcap · October 4

Friday Russia-Ukraine update:

"NATO's new Secretary-General Mark Rutte piled pressure Thursday on hesitant Western countries who refused to give Ukraine the right to use advanced weapons to strike military targets deep inside Russia.

Rutte, during an unannounced visit to Kyiv just 48 hours after taking over NATO leadership, said in a press conference next to Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, "Ukraine obviously has the right to defend itself, and international law here is on the side of Ukraine."

Ukraine's right to self-defense, according to Rutte, "does not end at the border, and Russia is pursuing this illegal war, and that means that targeting Russian fighter jets and missiles before they can be used against Ukraine's civilian infrastructure can help save lives."

Russia’s Ministry of Defence said its army had taken full control of the strategic hilltop town of Vuhledar in eastern Ukraine. Ukraine’s military said on Wednesday that it was withdrawing troops from the front line town, which occupies a key location in the Donetsk region, to “protect military personnel and equipment”.

Following the fall of Vuhledar, Ukraine’s armed forces commander General Oleksandr Syrskii said he had ordered defences to be strengthened in the eastern Donetsk region.

Ukraine’s General Staff, in a late evening update on the situation on the battlefield, said the Pokrovsk sector remained the location of the fiercest fighting. It said Russian forces had launched 28 attacks on Ukrainian forces in that sector and a further 23 in the nearby Kurakove sector over the previous 24 hours.

Russia launched a major drone attack on 15 Ukrainian regions, damaging energy infrastructure and residential buildings. The Ukrainian air force said it had shot down 78 out of 105 Russian drones during the assault, with 23 more thought to have been affected by active electronic jamming.

Russia’s Defence Ministry said its forces intercepted 113 Ukrainian drones over four Russian regions on the border with Ukraine – Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk and Voronezh."

lousubcap · October 5

Saturday Houthi update:

"U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces on Friday conducted strikes on 15 Houthi targets in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen.

The operation, taking place at approximately 5 p.m. Sanaa time targeted Houthi offensive military capabilities in an effort to safeguard maritime security.

“These actions were taken to protect freedom of navigation and make international waters safer and more secure for U.S., coalition, and merchant vessels,” CENTCOM stated."

lousubcap · October 5

Saturday Russia-Ukraine update:

"Russia has knocked out about 80 percent of critical infrastructure in the town of Pokrovsk, a key logistics hub in Ukraine’s east, as Russian soldiers slowly advance. Serhiy Dobriak, Pokrovsk’s military administration head, said Russian forces were about 7km (4 miles) from the town.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that he has visited the northern Sumy region, from where Ukraine launched a major incursion into the neighbouring Russian Kursk region. He said the incursion “has greatly helped” Kyiv to secure the latest military support packages from Western countries.

Poland will start building the first elements of enhanced defence lines on its borders with Russia and Belarus by the end of 2024, Deputy Defence Minister Cezary Tomczyk said. Spurred by Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Warsaw laid out plans to beef up its northern and eastern borders with fortifications, surveillance, reconnaissance and anti-drone systems by the end of 2028."

lousubcap · October 6

Sunday Russia-Ukraine update (such as it is):

"Russian air attacks on Ukraine kept the eastern half of the country under air raid alert for more than five hours, Ukraine’s military said early on Sunday.

Ukraine’s military said on Telegram its air defence units repelled Russia’s air attack on capital Kyiv on Sunday morning.

Ukraine will present its “victory plan” to its allies in Germany next weekend, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said, setting up a test of support for Kyiv’s vision of ending the war with Russia. He will meet US President Joe Biden and other leaders at a regular meeting of key NATO and other allies at the US Ramstein Air Base on October 12."

lousubcap · October 7

Monday Middle East update: One year on with this war-

"President Biden released a statement today marking one year since Oct. 7, saying he “became the first American president to visit Israel in a time of war,” and he “made clear then to the people of Israel: you are not alone.”

Biden said he is unsure whether Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is holding off on agreeing to a Gaza ceasefire deal in a bid to influence November’s U.S. presidential election. At the same rare appearance at a White House press briefing, Biden also cautioned Israel on striking Iranian oil fields. Gareth Evans reports for BBC News; Zolan Kanno-Youngs reports for the New York Times.

Hezbollah rockets hit Israel’s third largest city of Haifa early today, targeting a military base, the group said. Israeli police said 10 people had been wounded. The military is investigating how the missiles evaded Israel’s air defense systems. Meanwhile, the IDF said it deployed another division yesterday for “localized operations” in southern Lebanon. The Guardian reports.

The U.N. peacekeeping force in Lebanon will not shift its positions along the Blue Line, the temporary border between Lebanon and Israel, despite requests from the Israeli military, a spokesperson told the Washington Post yesterday. Kareem Fahim and Maham Javaid report.

Iran’s foreign minister was in Lebanon on Friday after meetings with leaders of Gulf countries earlier in the week in Qatar, where he reportedly conveyed Iran’s readiness to support a joint ceasefire in Lebanon and Gaza, even as Iran’s supreme leader expressed readiness to fight Israel. Alissa J. Rubin reports for the New York Times."

lousubcap · October 7

Monday Russia-Ukraine update:

"Russia unleashed an overnight drone attack across Ukraine targeting the capital Kyiv and hitting infrastructure in the Black Sea port of Odesa, Ukrainian officials said. The State Emergency Service said one person was injured and warehouses and cargo trucks damaged in Odesa during the multi-wave attack, which kept much of the country under air-raid alert for several hours.

The Ukrainian Air Force said the Russian attack involved 87 attack drones and four missiles. Air defence units destroyed 56 of the drones and two of the missiles, the Air Force said.

Dutch Minister of Defence Ruben Brekelmans made a surprise visit to Kyiv and announced that the Netherlands would invest 400 million euros ($440 million) in advanced drone development with Ukraine. He said he could also confirm that the country had delivered its first F-16 fighter jets to Kyiv and more would be sent in the coming months."

lousubcap · October 8

Tuesday Middle East update:

"The Biden administration imposed new sanctions yesterday intended to stop Hamas from using charitable donations to fund its military wing. The Treasury Department added a “sham” charity to the sanctions list, a Hamas-controlled financial institution in Gaza, as well as three Hamas members who are based in Europe. Alan Rappeport reports for the New York Times.

Israel’s military claimed it killed the commander of Hezbollah’s headquarters in “the area of Beirut.” CNN reports.

The United States is not currently pushing to revive an Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire deal, U.S. officials told CNN. Natasha Bertrand, Kayla Tausche, and Oren Liebermann report.

The Biden administration has assessed that Israel’s actions in Lebanon constituted “limited targeted operations,” a Pentagon spokesperson said yesterday. Sammy Westfall reports for the Washington Post.

There is no evidence that Iran has decided to build a nuclear weapon, CIA Director William Burns said yesterday. If it did, Washington and its allies would likely be able to detect such a development soon after it was taken, he added. Dan De Luce reports for NBC News.

Emirates, Dubai’s flagship airline, has banned pagers and walkie-talkies from its flights, following Israel’s recent attacks on Hezbollah communication devices. Ismaeel Naar reports for the New York Times."

lousubcap · October 8

Tuesday Russia-Ukraine update:

"Russian forces have reached another key city on the eastern frontline, Ukraine’s military said late yesterday. Moscow’s advance toward Toretsk comes less than a week after it captured the key city of Vuhledar. Oleksandr Kozhukhar and Lidia Kelly report for Reuters.

Ukraine’s military yesterday claimed it struck a major oil terminal providing fuel for Russia’s war effort in Crimea. Separately, a Russian missile struck near a major military airfield yesterday in western Ukraine. Illia Novikov and Hanna Arhirova report for AP News; Constant Méheut reports for the New York Times.

Ukrainian air defences shot down 32 Russian drones and a further 37 were lost on military radars, suggesting they had been disabled by electronic warfare systems, the air force said.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the war had entered “a very important phase” and that Ukraine needed to “put pressure on Russia in the way that’s necessary for Russia to realise that the war will gain them nothing”. Speaking in a video statement, Zelenskyy added: “Only through strength can we bring peace closer”."

lousubcap · October 8

A couple of food related articles worth a skim-

'You might be surprised by the answer to the quintessential American question, You want fries with that? An increasing number of people are saying no. Restaurant prices are increasing more than grocery store prices these days, and that's putting pressure on fast food outlets. The less often we go to those, the fewer fries we eat. Even some of the bargain meal deals often only include a small fries. That might seem like small potatoes to you, but it's a big deal if you're in the fry business. "Lamb Weston, the largest producer of french fries in North America and a major supplier to fast-food chains, restaurants and grocery stores, is closing a production plant in Washington state. The company announced last week that it would lay off nearly 400 employees, or 4% of its workforce, and temporarily cut production lines in response to slowing customer demand." America’s french fry king sounds an alarm. (I wonder if some aspect of this is related to the rise of Ozempic use. Fries are one of the foods experts advise you to avoid when taking that drug.)

+ It turns out that sell-by dates don't have all that much to do with whether or not you can still safely consume a product. In fact, they're not even meant for you in the first place. "Sell-by dates are a slightly ironic, and unnecessary, cause of food waste, because they’re not intended to ever be used by consumers. Instead, these dates are meant to indicate to store employees when stock needs to be rotated, and are not accurate representations of freshness or consumability." California Just Became the First State to Ban Sell-By Dates."

lousubcap · October 8

Ranked: America’s Hardest-Working States

Wallethub states North Dakota is the hardest-working American state, giving it a rounded score of 67/100. The state’s 98% employment rate helped in securing first place.

And just because-The complete rankings:
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-u-s-states-that-work-the-hardest/

Gulfcoastguy · October 9

lousubcap said:

A couple of food related articles worth a skim-

'You might be surprised by the answer to the quintessential American question, You want fries with that? An increasing number of people are saying no. Restaurant prices are increasing more than grocery store prices these days, and that's putting pressure on fast food outlets. The less often we go to those, the fewer fries we eat. Even some of the bargain meal deals often only include a small fries. That might seem like small potatoes to you, but it's a big deal if you're in the fry business. "Lamb Weston, the largest producer of french fries in North America and a major supplier to fast-food chains, restaurants and grocery stores, is closing a production plant in Washington state. The company announced last week that it would lay off nearly 400 employees, or 4% of its workforce, and temporarily cut production lines in response to slowing customer demand." America’s french fry king sounds an alarm. (I wonder if some aspect of this is related to the rise of Ozempic use. Fries are one of the foods experts advise you to avoid when taking that drug.)

+ It turns out that sell-by dates don't have all that much to do with whether or not you can still safely consume a product. In fact, they're not even meant for you in the first place. "Sell-by dates are a slightly ironic, and unnecessary, cause of food waste, because they’re not intended to ever be used by consumers. Instead, these dates are meant to indicate to store employees when stock needs to be rotated, and are not accurate representations of freshness or consumability." California Just Became the First State to Ban Sell-By Dates."

I am on Ozempic for its original use. If I go to a burger joint I pick out the five best French fries and that is all of them that I eat. They have to be crisp and not to big.

fishlessman · October 9

lousubcap said:

A couple of food related articles worth a skim-

'You might be surprised by the answer to the quintessential American question, You want fries with that? An increasing number of people are saying no. Restaurant prices are increasing more than grocery store prices these days, and that's putting pressure on fast food outlets. The less often we go to those, the fewer fries we eat. Even some of the bargain meal deals often only include a small fries. That might seem like small potatoes to you, but it's a big deal if you're in the fry business. "Lamb Weston, the largest producer of french fries in North America and a major supplier to fast-food chains, restaurants and grocery stores, is closing a production plant in Washington state. The company announced last week that it would lay off nearly 400 employees, or 4% of its workforce, and temporarily cut production lines in response to slowing customer demand." America’s french fry king sounds an alarm. (I wonder if some aspect of this is related to the rise of Ozempic use. Fries are one of the foods experts advise you to avoid when taking that drug.)

+ It turns out that sell-by dates don't have all that much to do with whether or not you can still safely consume a product. In fact, they're not even meant for you in the first place. "Sell-by dates are a slightly ironic, and unnecessary, cause of food waste, because they’re not intended to ever be used by consumers. Instead, these dates are meant to indicate to store employees when stock needs to be rotated, and are not accurate representations of freshness or consumability." California Just Became the First State to Ban Sell-By Dates."

I only eat the fries for the potassium....doctors orders

lousubcap · October 9

Wednesday Middle East update:

"President Biden is expected to hold a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu today about Israel’s plan to strike Iran, three U.S. officials told Axios. Barak Ravid reports.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has postponed a scheduled visit to Washington today to meet with his U.S. counterpart to discuss Israel’s military response to Iran’s missile attack. An Israeli official said the decision is partly because Netanyahu wants the cabinet to vote on the nature of Israel’s response before the U.S. trip. Eric Schmitt reports for the New York Times; Lauren Izso reports for CNN.

Israeli leaders have not yet briefed the United States on the specifics of their military response to Iran’s missile attack, U.S. officials said. The Biden administration hopes to avoid a repeat of surprise attacks, and is reportedly frustrated that Israel has not divulged details yet. Courtney Kube, Carol E. Lee, Monica Alba, Mosheh Gains, and Andrea Mitchell report for NBC News; Nancy A. Youssef and Carrie Keller-Lynn report for the Wall Street Journal.

Netanyahu suggested that Israel had not only killed the presumed successor of Hezbollah’s assassinated leader, Hassan Nasrallah, but also his potential replacement. Neither Hezbollah or Israel has confirmed Hashem Safieddine’s death. Johnatan Reiss reports for the New York Times.

Hezbollah supports efforts aimed at achieving a ceasefire in Lebanon, the group’s top official said yesterday, marking the first time it has publicly endorsed a ceasefire without conditioning it on a Gaza truce. Abbas Al Lawati reports for CNN.

Hamas and Fatah leaders are meeting today in Cairo for further Palestinian unity talks, a Hamas official told Reuters."

lousubcap · October 9

Wednesday Russia-Ukraine update:
"Ukraine’s Air Force said it shot down 18 of 19 Russian drones involved in an overnight attack on the southern region of Odesa with the last drone returning to Russian territory. Odesa regional Governor Oleh Kiper said the drone attack on the city of Chornomorsk started a fire in an apartment building but there were no casualties.

Russian forces entered the outskirts of the front-line city of Toretsk in eastern Ukraine. Anastasiia Bobovnikova, a spokesperson for the Operational Tactical Group “Luhansk”, told Ukraine’s national broadcaster: “The situation is unstable, fighting is taking place literally at every entrance [to the city].”

The Defence Ministry also said Russia’s air defence units destroyed 16 Ukrainian drones overnight, 14 of them over the Belgorod region, bordering Ukraine. It did not elaborate on damage or casualties."

lousubcap · October 9

This just in, Russia-Ukraine:

"Ukraine says it has blown up another Russian weapons depot, this time with North Korean weapons destroyed as well, the General Staff announced on Facebook.

Alleged location: The Main Missile and Artillery Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation in the Bryansk region, Ukrainian officials said. The strike occurred late Tuesday and featured troops with Ukraine’s drone forces.

“The arsenal stored ammunition for missile and artillery systems, including those delivered from North Korea, as well as glide bombs,” the General Staff said, adding, “Much of the ammunition was stored in the open.”

Relatedly, Russian authorities declared a “state of emergency” in the region Ukraine says it attacked overnight, according to Reuters. “The Bryansk emergencies ministry said the situation was under control, and made no mention of a weapons arsenal,” the wire service reports. "

lousubcap · October 9

The Moment of Truth

The reelection of Donald Trump would mark the end of George Washington’s vision for the presidency—and the United States.

By Tom Nichols

Teaser here-
"Washington’s life is a story of heroic actions, but also of temptations avoided, of things he would not do. As a military officer, Washington refused to take part in a plot to overthrow Congress. As a victorious general, he refused to remain in command after the war had ended. As president, he refused to hold on to an office that he did not believe belonged to him. His insistence on the rule of law and his willingness to return power to its rightful owners—the people of the United States—are among his most enduring gifts to the nation and to democratic civilization." In a cover story from The Atlantic (Gift Article), Tom Nichols explains the risk of the current presidential election by going back to the original POTUS, whose vision for the presidency is facing its greatest risk. The Moment of Truth. "Forty-four men have succeeded Washington so far. Some became titans; others finished their terms without distinction; a few ended their service to the nation in ignominy. But each of them knew that the day would come when it would be their duty and honor to return the presidency to the people. All but one, that is."

Article link (hope it works below):

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2024/11/george-washington-nightmare-donald-trump/679946/?utm_

dbCooper · October 9

@lousubcap - The article loaded for me, and it's a great read.

Of concern here, if the people that needed to see it saw it, would they see it?

lousubcap · October 10

Thursday Middle East update:

"Israel’s security cabinet will vote today on its response to Iran’s missile attack, an Israeli official told CNN. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant had earlier said that the retaliation would be “powerful, precise, and above all–surprising.”

Lebanon’s caretaker prime minister said today that contacts were underway between the United States and France with the aim of reviving a ceasefire.There was no immediate comment from Washington or Paris. James Mackenzie and Timour Azhari report for Reuters.

President Biden spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu yesterday about Israel’s plans to retaliate against Iran. “On Lebanon, the President emphasized the need for a diplomatic arrangement to safely return both Lebanese and Israeli civilians to their homes on both sides” and told Netanyahu to “minimize harm to civilians,” the White House said in a readout. Barak Ravid reports for Axios.

In the same call, Biden also spoke with Netanyahu about “the urgent need to renew diplomacy to release the hostages held by Hamas.” Additionally, the two leaders “discussed the humanitarian situation in Gaza and the imperative to restore access to the north, including by reinvigorating the corridor from Jordan immediately.”

Iran’s foreign minister arrived in Saudi Arabia yesterday as part of a diplomatic tour aimed at shoring up relations with Tehran’s Arab neighbors. “I hope that these consultations can lead to better conditions for Palestine and Lebanon and establish peace in the region,” Abbas Araghchi said. Ben Hubbard reports for the New York Times."

lousubcap · October 10

Thursday Russia-Ukraine update:

"Ukrainian Volodymyr Zelenskyy is set to meet NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer in London today ahead of meetings with the German Chancellor and Italy’s prime minister later this week. It follows the postponement of a planned summit of Ukraine’s main allies in Germany because Biden was unable to join.Miranda Murray and Sabine Siebold report for Reuters.

North Korean military engineers have been deployed to help Russia target Ukraine with ballistic missiles, senior officials in Kyiv and Seoul said, adding that North Koreans operating in occupied areas of Ukraine have already been killed. Emma Graham-Harrison and Justin McCurry reports for the Guardian.

Ukraine’s military said it struck a base in Russia’s southern Krasnodar region where Shahed drones were being stored. A statement by the General Staff said the attack was carried out jointly by naval forces and the SBU intelligence service. There was no official comment from Russia, although emergency services reported a large fire around the location of the alleged attack.

Ukraine said it also hit a Russian weapons arsenal in the Bryansk region where ammunition for missile and artillery weapons, including those delivered from North Korea, was stored. Bryansk authorities later declared a state of emergency following “detonations of explosive objects”.

Russia’s air defence units destroyed 47 Ukrainian drones targeting its western regions, the Ministry of Defence said. Regional officials said there were no reports of casualties."

fishlessman · October 10

North Korean military engineers have been deployed to help Russia target Ukraine with ballistic missiles

thats actually comical

lousubcap · October 10

That speaks volumes about the level of skills that Russia possesses today. Like the post Cold War assessments across the entire scientific and engineering populace (never mind DOD, totally guilty) that realized that instead of being a 10 foot tall adversary the country was closer to 4-5 feet tall.
The current state of affairs with Ukraine would support that same assessment today.
The only chip invitation/chip Russia has at the world stage table is their nukes. Without that, a third world player. At least my assessment from flyover country.

Botch · October 11

lousubcap said:

That speaks volumes about the level of skills that Russia possesses today. Like the post Cold War assessments across the entire scientific and engineering populace (never mind DOD, totally guilty) that realized that instead of being a 10 foot tall adversary the country was closer to 4-5 feet tall.
The current state of affairs with Ukraine would support that same assessment today.
The only chip invitation/chip Russia has at the world stage table is their nukes. Without that, a third world player. At least my assessment from flyover country.

There was an additional brain-drain leading up to, and immediately after, the start of the Ukraine war.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65790759

And I'm not totally sure on their nuke capabilities anymore, either. There was this story:
https://www.newsweek.com/satellite-images-reveal-russia-failed-nuclear-missile-test-report-1957495
...and they've had many previous failures too (albeit these were delivery/ICBM failures, not the nukes themselves). But, still, with rampant corruption within the senior russian military (MX/development funds being channeled to private offshore accounts) who really knows what even their current nuc capabilities are?)

I miss the TS briefings I got regularly when I was working in the nuke business; not really sure what the current status is globally anymore.

lousubcap · October 11

Friday Middle East update:

"An Israeli attack in central Beirut yesterday killed at least 22 people and injured 117, the deadliest strike on the city since Oct. 8, 2023, when Hezbollah first launched its rocket attacks on northern Israel. The IDF did not issue a warning, as it often has before other attacks. The Washington Post reports; BBC News reports.

The Lebanese government has asked the ministry of foreign affairs to call for a U.N. Security Council to vote on a resolution asking for an immediate and full ceasefire. Carine Torbey reports for BBC News.

Iran is threatening in secret diplomatic channels to target Arab Gulf states and other U.S. Middle East allies if their territories or airspace are used in Israel’s retaliatory attack, Arab officials said. Saudi Arabia, the U.A.E, and Qatar have already refused to allow Israel to use their airspace for any attack. Summer Said, Nancy A. Youssef, and Omar Abdel-Baqui report for the Wall Street Journal; Samia Nakhoul, Parisa Hafezi, and Pesha Magid report for Reuters.

The United States still believes that Iran has not decided to build a nuclear weapon, two U.S. officials told Reuters. Phil Stewart and Jonathan Landay report.

Yemen’s Houthis attacked a Liberian-flagged chemical tanker yesterday in the Red Sea, authorities said. No injuries were reported. Jon Gambrell reports for AP News."

lousubcap · October 11

Friday Russia-Ukraine update:

"September was Russia’s deadliest month of the war so far, with its eastern Ukraine offensive pushing the total number of Russian troop casualties to more than 600,000, senior Pentagon officials said on Wednesday. Eric Schmitt reports for the New York Times.

The U.K. did not lift restrictions on Ukraine using long-range missiles after Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s meeting with Prime Minister Keir Starmer, a spokesperson said yesterday. Eleni Courea reports for the Guardian.

Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister Oleksii Kuleba said Russia attacked Ukraine’s port infrastructure almost 60 times in the last three months and is intensifying such strikes.

Russia said its missiles struck two launchers of a US-made Patriot air defence system in central Ukraine, with Kyiv acknowledging the weapon had been hit, but saying it remained operational. A Ukrainian military blogger said the strike took place in Pavlohrad, in the Dnipropetrovsk region.

The Ukrainian military said it struck an ammunition depot at an airfield in Russia’s Adygeya region in the North Caucasus, about 450km (280 miles) from the front line in eastern Ukraine. Adygeya regional head Murat Kumpilov said that the village of Rodnikovyi had been evacuated after the drone attack started a fire, but there were no casualties."

lousubcap · October 11

I’m Running Out of Ways to Explain How Bad This Is

What’s happening in America today is something darker than a misinformation crisis.

By Charlie Warzel (a gift article I got thru a news feed-otherwise behind The Atlantic paywall but printed here)
Along but good read about where we are today.

Updated at 9:43 a.m. ET on October 11, 2024

The truth is, it’s getting harder to describe the extent to which a meaningful percentage of Americans have dissociated from reality. As Hurricane Milton churned across the Gulf of Mexico last night, I saw an onslaught of outright conspiracy theorizing and utter nonsense racking up millions of views across the internet. The posts would be laughable if they weren’t taken by many people as gospel. Among them: Infowars’ Alex Jones, who claimed that Hurricanes Milton and Helene were “weather weapons” unleashed on the East Coast by the U.S. government, and “truth seeker” accounts on X that posted photos of condensation trails in the sky to baselessly allege that the government was “spraying Florida ahead of Hurricane Milton” in order to ensure maximum rainfall, “just like they did over Asheville!”

As Milton made landfall, causing a series of tornados, a verified account on X reposted a TikTok video of a massive funnel cloud with the caption “WHAT IS HAPPENING TO FLORIDA?!” The clip, which was eventually removed but had been viewed 662,000 times as of yesterday evening, turned out to be from a video of a CGI tornado that was originally published months ago. Scrolling through these platforms, watching them fill with false information, harebrained theories, and doctored images—all while panicked residents boarded up their houses, struggled to evacuate, and prayed that their worldly possessions wouldn’t be obliterated overnight—offered a portrait of American discourse almost too bleak to reckon with head-on.

Even in a decade marred by online grifters, shameless politicians, and an alternative right-wing-media complex pushing anti-science fringe theories, the events of the past few weeks stand out for their depravity and nihilism. As two catastrophic storms upended American cities, a patchwork network of influencers and fake-news peddlers have done their best to sow distrust, stoke resentment, and interfere with relief efforts. But this is more than just a misinformation crisis. To watch as real information is overwhelmed by crank theories and public servants battle death threats is to confront two alarming facts: first, that a durable ecosystem exists to ensconce citizens in an alternate reality, and second, that the people consuming and amplifying those lies are not helpless dupes but willing participants.

Some of the lies and obfuscation are politically motivated, such as the claim that FEMA is offering only $750 in total to hurricane victims who have lost their home. (In reality, FEMA offers $750 as immediate “Serious Needs Assistance” to help people get basic supplies such as food and water.) Donald Trump, J. D. Vance, and Fox News have all repeated that lie. Trump also posted (and later deleted) on Truth Social that FEMA money was given to undocumented migrants, which is untrue. Elon Musk, who owns X, claimed—without evidence—that FEMA was “actively blocking shipments and seizing goods and services locally and locking them away to state they are their own. It’s very real and scary how much they have taken control to stop people helping.” That post has been viewed more than 40 million times. Other influencers, such as the Trump sycophant Laura Loomer, have urged their followers to disrupt the disaster agency’s efforts to help hurricane victims. “Do not comply with FEMA,” she posted on X. “This is a matter of survival.”

The result of this fearmongering is what you might expect. Angry, embittered citizens have been harassing government officials in North Carolina, as well as FEMA employees. According to an analysis by the Institute for Strategic Dialogue, an extremism-research group, “Falsehoods around hurricane response have spawned credible threats and incitement to violence directed at the federal government,” including “calls to send militias to face down FEMA.” The study also found that 30 percent of the X posts analyzed by ISD “contained overt antisemitic hate, including abuse directed at public officials such as the Mayor of Asheville, North Carolina; the FEMA Director of Public Affairs; and the Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security.” The posts received a collective 17.1 million views as of October 7.

Online, first responders are pleading with residents, asking for their help to combat the flood of lies and conspiracy theories. FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell said that the volume of misinformation could hamper relief efforts. “If it creates so much fear that my staff doesn’t want to go out in the field, then we’re not going to be in a position where we can help people,” she said in a news conference on Tuesday. In Pensacola, North Carolina, Assistant Fire Chief Bradley Boone vented his frustrations on Facebook: “I’m trying to rescue my community,” he said in a livestream. “I ain’t got time. I ain’t got time to chase down every Facebook rumor … We’ve been through enough.”

It is difficult to capture the nihilism of the current moment. The pandemic saw Americans, distrustful of authority, trying to discredit effective vaccines, spreading conspiracy theories, and attacking public-health officials. But what feels novel in the aftermath of this month’s hurricanes is how the people doing the lying aren’t even trying to hide the provenance of their ****. Similarly, those sharing the lies are happy to admit that they do not care whether what they’re pushing is real or not. Such was the case last week, when Republican politicians shared an AI-generated viral image of a little girl holding a puppy while supposedly fleeing Helene. Though the image was clearly fake and quickly debunked, some politicians remained defiant. “Y’all, I don’t know where this photo came from and honestly, it doesn’t matter,” Amy Kremer, who represents Georgia on the Republican National Committee, wrote after sharing the fake image. “I’m leaving it because it is emblematic of the trauma and pain people are living through right now.”

Kremer wasn’t alone. The journalist Parker Molloy compiled screenshots of people “acknowledging that this image is AI but still insisting that it’s real on some deeper level”—proof, Molloy noted, that we’re “living in the post-reality.” The technology writer Jason Koebler argued that we’ve entered the “‘**** It’ Era” of AI slop and political messaging, with AI-generated images being used to convey whatever partisan message suits the moment, regardless of truth.

This has all been building for more than a decade. On The Colbert Report, back in 2005, Stephen Colbert coined the word truthiness, which he defined as “the belief in what you feel to be true rather than what the facts will support.” This reality-fracturing is the result of an information ecosystem that is dominated by platforms that offer financial and attentional incentives to lie and enrage, and to turn every tragedy and large event into a shameless content-creation opportunity. This collides with a swath of people who would rather live in an alternate reality built on distrust and grievance than change their fundamental beliefs about the world. But the misinformation crisis is not always what we think it is.

So much of the conversation around misinformation suggests that its primary job is to persuade. But as Michael Caulfield, an information researcher at the University of Washington, has argued, “The primary use of ‘misinformation’ is not to change the beliefs of other people at all. Instead, the vast majority of misinformation is offered as a service for people to maintain their beliefs in face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary.” This distinction is important, in part because it assigns agency to those who consume and share obviously fake information. What is clear from comments such as Kremer’s is that she is not a dupe; although she may come off as deeply incurious and shameless, she is publicly admitting to being an active participant in the far right’s world-building project, where feel is always greater than real.

What we’re witnessing online during and in the aftermath of these hurricanes is a group of people desperate to protect the dark, fictitious world they’ve built. Rather than deal with the realities of a warming planet hurling once-in-a-generation storms at them every few weeks, they’d rather malign and threaten meteorologists, who, in their minds, are “nothing but a trained subversive liar programmed to spew stupid **** to support the global warming ****,” as one X user put it. It is a strategy designed to silence voices of reason, because those voices threaten to expose the cracks in their current worldview. But their efforts are doomed, futile. As one dispirited meteorologist wrote on X this week, “Murdering meteorologists won’t stop hurricanes.” She followed with: “I can’t believe I just had to type that.”

What is clear is that a new framework is needed to describe this fracturing. Misinformation is too technical, too freighted, and, after almost a decade of Trump, too political. Nor does it explain what is really happening, which is nothing less than a cultural assault on any person or institution that operates in reality. If you are a weatherperson, you’re a target. The same goes for journalists, election workers, scientists, doctors, and first responders. These jobs are different, but the thing they share is that they all must attend to and describe the world as it is. This makes them dangerous to people who cannot abide by the agonizing constraints of reality, as well as those who have financial and political interests in keeping up the charade.

In one sense, these attacks—and their increased desperation—make sense. The world feels dark; for many people, it’s tempting to meet that with a retreat into the delusion that they’ve got everything figured out, that the powers that be have conspired against them directly. But in turning away, they exacerbate a crisis that has characterized the Trump era, one that will reverberate to Election Day and beyond. Americans are divided not just by political beliefs but by whether they believe in a shared reality—or desire one at all."