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Given the wide ranging interests and talents here-worth a look; Getting out of Afghanistan

lousubcap
lousubcap Posts: 32,167
 After troops exit, safety of US Embassy in Kabul top concern  
I will refrain from any commentary other than to offer that Afghanistan has weathered the invasions/control storms before and always emerges fundamentally unchanged once victory is declared.  So it is now.
Louisville; Rolling smoke in the neighbourhood. # 38 for the win.  Life is too short for light/lite beer!  Seems I'm livin in a transitional period.
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Comments

  • Kayak
    Kayak Posts: 700
    Other than the regular troops, that leaves what? Thousands of special forces and CIA operatives? Aircraft and missiles that can strike anywhere? “Leaving” just ain’t what it used to be. The Taliban would be crazy to do anything if they want to have a government that can show its head anywhere. 

    Bob

    New Cumberland, PA
    XL with the usual accessories

  • nolaegghead
    nolaegghead Posts: 42,102
    Afghanistan's role in 9/11 was really from al-Qaeda with mostly foreign direction.  They organized and trained there because it was a friendly failed state.  Those people are mostly gone, but any real power there is controlled by regional war-lords.  The scourge of any type of democratic/successful government is religious extremists and there's no shortage of them there, although most of them are interested in money/power.  Same old story.  The opium trade is going to fund the same people it has for eons and their normal is fighting and instability, only controlled by ruthless men using fear and religious "authority".

    We've spent a trillion dollars there, arguably almost a trillion more than we should.  There's no changing this dynamic, only sowing more reasons for them to hate the West.  Git da fook outta there and take care of the people that helped us and at are risk by getting them the fook out too.
    ______________________________________________
    I love lamp..
  • HeavyG
    HeavyG Posts: 10,323
    I doubt that the Taliban is going to mess with American embassy personnel. Afghanistan is China's problem now. They have big plans to include Afghanistan in their Belt and Road Initiative and have bought mineral rights and will be moving in equipment and project managers and laborers any day now. Good luck to them. Perhaps they'll be successful in the "graveyard of empires" where the Rooskies and the US were not.

    “Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away.” ― Philip K. Diçk




  • Gulfcoastguy
    Gulfcoastguy Posts: 6,286
    Nation building in a Islamic nation is impossible. It has never worked . 
  • Kayak
    Kayak Posts: 700
    Nation building in a Islamic nation is impossible. It has never worked . 
    FTFY.

    Perhaps destroying the nation as the first step is the problem? Plenty of Christian countries haven't enjoyed our 'saving' them.

    Bob

    New Cumberland, PA
    XL with the usual accessories

  • Gulfcoastguy
    Gulfcoastguy Posts: 6,286
    edited July 2021
    Did anything you said make what I said less true? The US tried, the Russians tried, the British tried, and the Greeks tried. I said at the time that anything past a massive sweep for Bin Laden was a mistake, I said at the time W was letting his ego overload his ability in Iraq in order to do what his Daddy couldn’t, I said that there wasn’t anyone worth backing in Syria, and I definitely said that there was no reason to get involved in Libya. 
  • Kayak
    Kayak Posts: 700
    edited July 2021
    You made sure to specify the impossibility of nation building in an Islamic state. As if there is something wrong with those people. No need to rehash 'what you said at the time' - no one is interested in your anti-war cred or your convenient framing of why they were not 'successful experiments'. FYI, plenty of Islamic countries, along with Christian ones, built the country they wanted, only to have it destroyed by the big powers you name-dropped. A good number of them were even democracies.

    Bob

    New Cumberland, PA
    XL with the usual accessories

  • Kayak
    Kayak Posts: 700
    Take a look at this picture:



    Note the women’s dress.

    “Prior to the rise of the Taliban, women in Afghanistan were protected under law and increasingly afforded rights in Afghan society.  Women received the right to vote in the 1920s; and as early as the 1960s, the Afghan constitution provided for equality for women. There was a mood of tolerance and openness as the country began moving toward democracy. Women were making important contributions to national development. In 1977, women comprised over 15% of Afghanistan's highest legislative body. It is estimated that by the early 1990s, 70% of schoolteachers, 50% of government workers and university students, and 40% of doctors in Kabul were women.” US Dept of State archive.

    I’m pretty sure the 1970’s weren’t eons ago? It doesn’t sound like religious nuts and opium dealers were running the place for thousands of years? Where did this failed violent state that hates the west come from? I guess we’ll never know.


    Bob

    New Cumberland, PA
    XL with the usual accessories

  • nolaegghead
    nolaegghead Posts: 42,102
    Kayak said:
    Take a look at this picture:



    Note the women’s dress.

    “Prior to the rise of the Taliban, women in Afghanistan were protected under law and increasingly afforded rights in Afghan society.  Women received the right to vote in the 1920s; and as early as the 1960s, the Afghan constitution provided for equality for women. There was a mood of tolerance and openness as the country began moving toward democracy. Women were making important contributions to national development. In 1977, women comprised over 15% of Afghanistan's highest legislative body. It is estimated that by the early 1990s, 70% of schoolteachers, 50% of government workers and university students, and 40% of doctors in Kabul were women.” US Dept of State archive.

    I’m pretty sure the 1970’s weren’t eons ago? It doesn’t sound like religious nuts and opium dealers were running the place for thousands of years? Where did this failed violent state that hates the west come from? I guess we’ll never know.


    From the Atlantic on Afghanistan in the 50's and 60's:

    Fractured by internal conflict and foreign intervention for centuries, Afghanistan made several tentative steps toward modernization in the mid-20th century. In the 1950s and 1960s, some of the biggest strides were made toward a more liberal and westernized lifestyle, while trying to maintain a respect for more conservative factions. Though officially a neutral nation, Afghanistan was courted and influenced by the U.S. and Soviet Union during the Cold War, accepting Soviet machinery and weapons, and U.S. financial aid. This time was a brief, relatively peaceful era, when modern buildings were constructed in Kabul alongside older traditional mud structures, when burqas became optional for a time, and the country appeared to be on a path toward a more open, prosperous society. Progress was halted in the 1970s, as a series of bloody coups, invasions, and civil wars began, continuing to this day, reversing almost all of the steps toward modernization taken in the 50s and 60s.


    ______________________________________________
    I love lamp..
  • Botch
    Botch Posts: 15,428
    I had resisted responding to this thread, albeit a good discussion.  Things are happening so fast over there right now, damn.  
    My first observation is that, we've been over there, 20 years now, supposedly training their military.  Twenty years; here in the US, this is the retirement point for a military career!  Nothing that we've been teaching has stuck; why is that?
    Many reports in recent days, is a full distrust in the central guv'mint by the military, which is why they are surrendering/fleeing their posts.  Massive corruption in the central guv'mint is well documented. So much so, they're openly willing to let the Taliban rule, though?!?!?   
    A third observation, one I've read about a lot but over 15/20 years ago, is that people in the Middle East don't quite adhere to a singular belief, or a constitution, but rather to "the winning side".  Here in the US we used to adhere to the ideas of freedom, personal responsibility, and the Constitution; those last two have flown out the window in the last 5 years.  
    Fourth, there is an entire generation (20 years) of Afghans who grew up in a sorta-Western society (education and political power for women, freedom of speech/press, etc) that, apparently, will now be eliminated.  Will that whole generation accept that?  I see a lot of turmoil, and additional prisons/ graveyards, being built....  :(  
    A fifth, and final observation.  The United States, at the end of WWII, decided instead of establishing ownership of so much of the world, announced we would defend any country who adopted a democratic government model, against their local enemies.  This is a simpleton observation, but everywhere we've stayed (Japan, South Korea, Italy, Germany, Spain, there may be more) kept an acceptably-free form of government; while everywhere we've abandoned (South Vietnam, Libya, Croatia, Afghanistan, there may be more) have fallen to less-acceptable forms of government.  
    FWIW.  
    _____________

    "I mean, I don't just kill guys, I'm notorious for doing in houseplants."  - Maggie, Northern Exposure


  • JohnInCarolina
    JohnInCarolina Posts: 30,867


    It seems like maybe part of the story of our history with Afghanistan over the past 20 years is that American military assessments haven’t been all that accurate.  
    "I've made a note never to piss you two off." - Stike
  • dmchicago
    dmchicago Posts: 4,516
    lol JohnInCarolina said:


    It seems like maybe part of the story of our history with Afghanistan over the past 20 years is that American military assessments haven’t been all that accurate.  
    Including the belief that they would actually fight for their country. 
    Philly - Kansas City - Houston - Cincinnati - Dallas - Houston - Memphis - Austin - Chicago - Austin

    Large BGE. OONI 16, TOTO Washlet S550e (Now with enhanced Motherly Hugs!)

    "If I wanted my balls washed, I'd go to the golf course!"
    Dennis - Austin,TX
  • fishlessman
    fishlessman Posts: 32,665
    is anyone surprised
    fukahwee maine

    you can lead a fish to water but you can not make him drink it
  • Gulfcoastguy
    Gulfcoastguy Posts: 6,286
    is anyone surprised
    Not really. Let's listen to the spin on the news platforms.
  • nolaegghead
    nolaegghead Posts: 42,102
    Biden f*cked the pooch on this one.  Getting out is a great goal, I'm totally down with how we've taken nation building about as far as it will go there.  The people there have a culture that's evolved through perpetual war.  They have a tendency to go along with whoever looks like they're going to be winning control.

    That said, we all saw this as a slow-motion disaster unfolding on the news.  Leaving those people (who helped us) behind is unforgivable.  This could have been better planned.  Getting people out should have started the second we declared a date, or even before.  Grease the wheels behind that paperwork and at least get people to safety *THEN* deal with eligibility nuances in visa applications and just trust the word of the people who sponsored them as interpreters or whatever.
    ______________________________________________
    I love lamp..
  • nolaegghead
    nolaegghead Posts: 42,102
    Or maybe split off a portion of the country and move all the people the Taliban wants to kill there, make it it's own country and help out a subset of the populace.  Where we do that we have success like S Korea.
    ______________________________________________
    I love lamp..
  • fishlessman
    fishlessman Posts: 32,665
    Or maybe split off a portion of the country and move all the people the Taliban wants to kill there, make it it's own country and help out a subset of the populace.  Where we do that we have success like S Korea.

    maybe biden will add that to the infrastructure bill =)
    fukahwee maine

    you can lead a fish to water but you can not make him drink it
  • bubbajack
    bubbajack Posts: 1,088
    It seems like the slaughter has begun. 
    I drink cheap beer so I can afford good bourbon.

    Salisbury, NC...... XL,Lx3,Mx2,S, MM, Mini BGE, FireDisc x2. Blackstone 22", Offset smoker, weber kettle 22"


  • fishlessman
    fishlessman Posts: 32,665
    yesterday it was 5000, last night it was 10000, this morning its 15000 americans hiding in afganistan wanting out and we are asking the taliban for help......   spell check is amazing, leaving the h out of afghanistan it recomends satanist.... wth
    fukahwee maine

    you can lead a fish to water but you can not make him drink it
  • fishlessman
    fishlessman Posts: 32,665
    dmchicago said:


    great career choice....after the resignations there will be some good opportunity in washington
    fukahwee maine

    you can lead a fish to water but you can not make him drink it
  • dbCooper
    dbCooper Posts: 2,061
    Buddy of mine brought up an interesting point last night... why is Covid not rampant within the Taliban ranks?  They seem to be fond of large social gatherings, with no masks.  Wonder what their vaxxing rate is?
    LBGE, LBGE-PTR, 22" Weber, Coleman 413G
    Great Plains, USA
  • nolaegghead
    nolaegghead Posts: 42,102
    dbCooper said:
    Buddy of mine brought up an interesting point last night... why is Covid not rampant within the Taliban ranks?  They seem to be fond of large social gatherings, with no masks.  Wonder what their vaxxing rate is?
    How do you know it isn't?  They are a shadowy organization that murders people and lies.
    ______________________________________________
    I love lamp..
  • fishlessman
    fishlessman Posts: 32,665
    dbCooper said:
    Buddy of mine brought up an interesting point last night... why is Covid not rampant within the Taliban ranks?  They seem to be fond of large social gatherings, with no masks.  Wonder what their vaxxing rate is?

    was just a quick search but this article mentions over half the people in the capitol city have already had the virus and i doubt much testing was done


    fukahwee maine

    you can lead a fish to water but you can not make him drink it
  • Kayak
    Kayak Posts: 700
    dbCooper said:
    Buddy of mine brought up an interesting point last night... why is Covid not rampant within the Taliban ranks?  They seem to be fond of large social gatherings, with no masks.  Wonder what their vaxxing rate is?
    It's probably that they spend their workdays in the fresh air and sunshine. Not a lot of office time or trips to the mall.

    Bob

    New Cumberland, PA
    XL with the usual accessories

  • dbCooper
    dbCooper Posts: 2,061
    This reporting indicates the Taliban is promoting vaccinations, their motivations are unclear...
    "The Afghan Taliban and Covid-19: Leveraging the Crisis or a Change of Heart?"
    "Conclusion

    It is not uncommon for terrorist and militant groups across the world to perceive vaccination campaigns with a deep mistrust and take strong action to disrupt them. The ideological clash between central governments and terrorist groups also prompted the latter to take a strong stand again immunization efforts. The strong opposition by religious fundamentalists in countries such as Afghanistan, Nigeria, and Pakistan have resulted in the failure of vaccination efforts against polio in the past.[27] As a result, polio has been eradicated in most countries except for Pakistan and Afghanistan.[28] However, in the case of Covid-19, the Taliban has responded in an unprecedented manner by facilitating public health workshops and giving permission to healthcare workers to administer the vaccine in areas under its control. That said, this is likely to be part of a larger strategy to gain legitimacy rather than a change of heart."



    LBGE, LBGE-PTR, 22" Weber, Coleman 413G
    Great Plains, USA
  • Kayak
    Kayak Posts: 700
    dbCooper said:
    This reporting indicates the Taliban is promoting vaccinations, their motivations are unclear...
    "The Afghan Taliban and Covid-19: Leveraging the Crisis or a Change of Heart?"
    "Conclusion

    It is not uncommon for terrorist and militant groups across the world to perceive vaccination campaigns with a deep mistrust and take strong action to disrupt them. The ideological clash between central governments and terrorist groups also prompted the latter to take a strong stand again immunization efforts. The strong opposition by religious fundamentalists in countries such as Afghanistan, Nigeria, and Pakistan have resulted in the failure of vaccination efforts against polio in the past.[27] As a result, polio has been eradicated in most countries except for Pakistan and Afghanistan.[28] However, in the case of Covid-19, the Taliban has responded in an unprecedented manner by facilitating public health workshops and giving permission to healthcare workers to administer the vaccine in areas under its control. That said, this is likely to be part of a larger strategy to gain legitimacy rather than a change of heart."



    Maybe unlike certain groups in this country, they don’t actually seem to want their side to die off and advantage the other side?

    It doesn’t have to be a sneaky strategy.

    Bob

    New Cumberland, PA
    XL with the usual accessories

  • Botch
    Botch Posts: 15,428
    Kayak said:
    Maybe unlike certain groups in this country, they don’t actually seem to want their side to die off and advantage the other side?
    Ayup!  
    _____________

    "I mean, I don't just kill guys, I'm notorious for doing in houseplants."  - Maggie, Northern Exposure


  • Gulfcoastguy
    Gulfcoastguy Posts: 6,286
    Maybe selective vaccination? 
  • fishlessman
    fishlessman Posts: 32,665
    maybe they follow a covid policy. executions/ torture, wear a mask.  shooting outside into crowds, no mask.
    fukahwee maine

    you can lead a fish to water but you can not make him drink it