Given the wide ranging interests and talents here-worth a look; Getting out of Afghanistan

lousubcap

 After troops exit, safety of US Embassy in Kabul top concern  
I will refrain from any commentary other than to offer that Afghanistan has weathered the invasions/control storms before and always emerges fundamentally unchanged once victory is declared.  So it is now.

Kayak

Other than the regular troops, that leaves what? Thousands of special forces and CIA operatives? Aircraft and missiles that can strike anywhere? “Leaving” just ain’t what it used to be. The Taliban would be crazy to do anything if they want to have a government that can show its head anywhere. 

nolaegghead

Afghanistan's role in 9/11 was really from al-Qaeda with mostly foreign direction.  They organized and trained there because it was a friendly failed state.  Those people are mostly gone, but any real power there is controlled by regional war-lords.  The scourge of any type of democratic/successful government is religious extremists and there's no shortage of them there, although most of them are interested in money/power.  Same old story.  The opium trade is going to fund the same people it has for eons and their normal is fighting and instability, only controlled by ruthless men using fear and religious "authority".

We've spent a trillion dollars there, arguably almost a trillion more than we should.  There's no changing this dynamic, only sowing more reasons for them to hate the West.  Git da fook outta there and take care of the people that helped us and at are risk by getting them the fook out too.

HeavyG

I doubt that the Taliban is going to mess with American embassy personnel. Afghanistan is China's problem now. They have big plans to include Afghanistan in their Belt and Road Initiative and have bought mineral rights and will be moving in equipment and project managers and laborers any day now. Good luck to them. Perhaps they'll be successful in the "graveyard of empires" where the Rooskies and the US were not.

Gulfcoastguy

Nation building in a Islamic nation is impossible. It has never worked . 

Kayak

Gulfcoastguy said:

Nation building in a Islamic nation is impossible. It has never worked . 

FTFY.

Perhaps destroying the nation as the first step is the problem? Plenty of Christian countries haven't enjoyed our 'saving' them.

Gulfcoastguy

Did anything you said make what I said less true? The US tried, the Russians tried, the British tried, and the Greeks tried. I said at the time that anything past a massive sweep for Bin Laden was a mistake, I said at the time W was letting his ego overload his ability in Iraq in order to do what his Daddy couldn’t, I said that there wasn’t anyone worth backing in Syria, and I definitely said that there was no reason to get involved in Libya. 

Kayak

You made sure to specify the impossibility of nation building in an Islamic state. As if there is something wrong with those people. No need to rehash 'what you said at the time' - no one is interested in your anti-war cred or your convenient framing of why they were not 'successful experiments'. FYI, plenty of Islamic countries, along with Christian ones, built the country they wanted, only to have it destroyed by the big powers you name-dropped. A good number of them were even democracies.

Kayak

Take a look at this picture:

Note the women’s dress.

“Prior to the rise of the Taliban, women in Afghanistan were protected under law and increasingly afforded rights in Afghan society.  Women received the right to vote in the 1920s; and as early as the 1960s, the Afghan constitution provided for equality for women. There was a mood of tolerance and openness as the country began moving toward democracy. Women were making important contributions to national development. In 1977, women comprised over 15% of Afghanistan's highest legislative body. It is estimated that by the early 1990s, 70% of schoolteachers, 50% of government workers and university students, and 40% of doctors in Kabul were women.” US Dept of State archive.

I’m pretty sure the 1970’s weren’t eons ago? It doesn’t sound like religious nuts and opium dealers were running the place for thousands of years? Where did this failed violent state that hates the west come from? I guess we’ll never know.

nolaegghead

Kayak said:

Take a look at this picture:

Note the women’s dress.

“Prior to the rise of the Taliban, women in Afghanistan were protected under law and increasingly afforded rights in Afghan society.  Women received the right to vote in the 1920s; and as early as the 1960s, the Afghan constitution provided for equality for women. There was a mood of tolerance and openness as the country began moving toward democracy. Women were making important contributions to national development. In 1977, women comprised over 15% of Afghanistan's highest legislative body. It is estimated that by the early 1990s, 70% of schoolteachers, 50% of government workers and university students, and 40% of doctors in Kabul were women.” US Dept of State archive.

I’m pretty sure the 1970’s weren’t eons ago? It doesn’t sound like religious nuts and opium dealers were running the place for thousands of years? Where did this failed violent state that hates the west come from? I guess we’ll never know.

From the Atlantic on Afghanistan in the 50's and 60's:

Fractured by internal conflict and foreign intervention for centuries, Afghanistan made several tentative steps toward modernization in the mid-20th century. In the 1950s and 1960s, some of the biggest strides were made toward a more liberal and westernized lifestyle, while trying to maintain a respect for more conservative factions. Though officially a neutral nation, Afghanistan was courted and influenced by the U.S. and Soviet Union during the Cold War, accepting Soviet machinery and weapons, and U.S. financial aid. This time was a brief, relatively peaceful era, when modern buildings were constructed in Kabul alongside older traditional mud structures, when burqas became optional for a time, and the country appeared to be on a path toward a more open, prosperous society. Progress was halted in the 1970s, as a series of bloody coups, invasions, and civil wars began, continuing to this day, reversing almost all of the steps toward modernization taken in the 50s and 60s.

Botch

I had resisted responding to this thread, albeit a good discussion.  Things are happening so fast over there right now, damn.  
My first observation is that, we've been over there, 20 years now, supposedly training their military.  Twenty years; here in the US, this is the retirement point for a military career!  Nothing that we've been teaching has stuck; why is that?
Many reports in recent days, is a full distrust in the central guv'mint by the military, which is why they are surrendering/fleeing their posts.  Massive corruption in the central guv'mint is well documented. So much so, they're openly willing to let the Taliban rule, though?!?!?   
A third observation, one I've read about a lot but over 15/20 years ago, is that people in the Middle East don't quite adhere to a singular belief, or a constitution, but rather to "the winning side".  Here in the US we used to adhere to the ideas of freedom, personal responsibility, and the Constitution; those last two have flown out the window in the last 5 years.  
Fourth, there is an entire generation (20 years) of Afghans who grew up in a sorta-Western society (education and political power for women, freedom of speech/press, etc) that, apparently, will now be eliminated.  Will that whole generation accept that?  I see a lot of turmoil, and additional prisons/ graveyards, being built....  :(  
A fifth, and final observation.  The United States, at the end of WWII, decided instead of establishing ownership of so much of the world, announced we would defend any country who adopted a democratic government model, against their local enemies.  This is a simpleton observation, but everywhere we've stayed (Japan, South Korea, Italy, Germany, Spain, there may be more) kept an acceptably-free form of government; while everywhere we've abandoned (South Vietnam, Libya, Croatia, Afghanistan, there may be more) have fallen to less-acceptable forms of government.  
FWIW.  

JohnInCarolina

https://twitter.com/JonLemire/status/1426882082379341826?s=20

It seems like maybe part of the story of our history with Afghanistan over the past 20 years is that American military assessments haven’t been all that accurate.  

dmchicago

lol JohnInCarolina said:

https://twitter.com/JonLemire/status/1426882082379341826?s=20

It seems like maybe part of the story of our history with Afghanistan over the past 20 years is that American military assessments haven’t been all that accurate.  

Including the belief that they would actually fight for their country. 

fishlessman

is anyone surprised

Gulfcoastguy

fishlessman said:

is anyone surprised

Not really. Let's listen to the spin on the news platforms.

nolaegghead

Biden f*cked the pooch on this one.  Getting out is a great goal, I'm totally down with how we've taken nation building about as far as it will go there.  The people there have a culture that's evolved through perpetual war.  They have a tendency to go along with whoever looks like they're going to be winning control.

That said, we all saw this as a slow-motion disaster unfolding on the news.  Leaving those people (who helped us) behind is unforgivable.  This could have been better planned.  Getting people out should have started the second we declared a date, or even before.  Grease the wheels behind that paperwork and at least get people to safety *THEN* deal with eligibility nuances in visa applications and just trust the word of the people who sponsored them as interpreters or whatever.

nolaegghead

Or maybe split off a portion of the country and move all the people the Taliban wants to kill there, make it it's own country and help out a subset of the populace.  Where we do that we have success like S Korea.

fishlessman

nolaegghead said:

Or maybe split off a portion of the country and move all the people the Taliban wants to kill there, make it it's own country and help out a subset of the populace.  Where we do that we have success like S Korea.

maybe biden will add that to the infrastructure bill

bubbajack

It seems like the slaughter has begun. 

fishlessman

yesterday it was 5000, last night it was 10000, this morning its 15000 americans hiding in afganistan wanting out and we are asking the taliban for help......   spell check is amazing, leaving the h out of afghanistan it recomends satanist.... wth

dmchicago

fishlessman

dmchicago said:

great career choice....after the resignations there will be some good opportunity in washington

dbCooper

Buddy of mine brought up an interesting point last night... why is Covid not rampant within the Taliban ranks?  They seem to be fond of large social gatherings, with no masks.  Wonder what their vaxxing rate is?

nolaegghead

dbCooper said:

Buddy of mine brought up an interesting point last night... why is Covid not rampant within the Taliban ranks?  They seem to be fond of large social gatherings, with no masks.  Wonder what their vaxxing rate is?

How do you know it isn't?  They are a shadowy organization that murders people and lies.

fishlessman

dbCooper said:

Buddy of mine brought up an interesting point last night... why is Covid not rampant within the Taliban ranks?  They seem to be fond of large social gatherings, with no masks.  Wonder what their vaxxing rate is?

was just a quick search but this article mentions over half the people in the capitol city have already had the virus and i doubt much testing was done

https://www.voanews.com/south-central-asia/10-million-afghans-likely-infected-and-recovered-covid-19-survey

Kayak

dbCooper said:

Buddy of mine brought up an interesting point last night... why is Covid not rampant within the Taliban ranks?  They seem to be fond of large social gatherings, with no masks.  Wonder what their vaxxing rate is?

It's probably that they spend their workdays in the fresh air and sunshine. Not a lot of office time or trips to the mall.

dbCooper

This reporting indicates the Taliban is promoting vaccinations, their motivations are unclear...

"The Afghan Taliban and Covid-19: Leveraging the Crisis or a Change of Heart?"

https://www.mei.edu/publications/afghan-taliban-and-covid-19-leveraging-crisis-or-change-heart

"Conclusion

It is not uncommon for terrorist and militant groups across the world to perceive vaccination campaigns with a deep mistrust and take strong action to disrupt them. The ideological clash between central governments and terrorist groups also prompted the latter to take a strong stand again immunization efforts. The strong opposition by religious fundamentalists in countries such as Afghanistan, Nigeria, and Pakistan have resulted in the failure of vaccination efforts against polio in the past.[27] As a result, polio has been eradicated in most countries except for Pakistan and Afghanistan.[28] However, in the case of Covid-19, the Taliban has responded in an unprecedented manner by facilitating public health workshops and giving permission to healthcare workers to administer the vaccine in areas under its control. That said, this is likely to be part of a larger strategy to gain legitimacy rather than a change of heart."

Kayak

dbCooper said:

This reporting indicates the Taliban is promoting vaccinations, their motivations are unclear...

"The Afghan Taliban and Covid-19: Leveraging the Crisis or a Change of Heart?"

https://www.mei.edu/publications/afghan-taliban-and-covid-19-leveraging-crisis-or-change-heart

"Conclusion

It is not uncommon for terrorist and militant groups across the world to perceive vaccination campaigns with a deep mistrust and take strong action to disrupt them. The ideological clash between central governments and terrorist groups also prompted the latter to take a strong stand again immunization efforts. The strong opposition by religious fundamentalists in countries such as Afghanistan, Nigeria, and Pakistan have resulted in the failure of vaccination efforts against polio in the past.[27] As a result, polio has been eradicated in most countries except for Pakistan and Afghanistan.[28] However, in the case of Covid-19, the Taliban has responded in an unprecedented manner by facilitating public health workshops and giving permission to healthcare workers to administer the vaccine in areas under its control. That said, this is likely to be part of a larger strategy to gain legitimacy rather than a change of heart."

Maybe unlike certain groups in this country, they don’t actually seem to want their side to die off and advantage the other side?

It doesn’t have to be a sneaky strategy.

Botch

Kayak said:
Maybe unlike certain groups in this country, they don’t actually seem to want their side to die off and advantage the other side?

Ayup!  

Gulfcoastguy

Maybe selective vaccination? 

fishlessman

maybe they follow a covid policy. executions/ torture, wear a mask.  shooting outside into crowds, no mask.