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Tracking Covid Spread

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frazzdaddy
frazzdaddy Posts: 2,617
in Off Topic
Like ripples in a pond.

 https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days
Xl bge ,LG bge, two 4' crusher cone fire pits. Weber Genisis gasser and 
Two rusty Weber kettles. 

Two Rivers Farm
Moncure N.C.
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  • fishlessman
    fishlessman Posts: 32,759
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    how is north dakota so high.
    fukahwee maine

    you can lead a fish to water but you can not make him drink it
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  • JohnInCarolina
    JohnInCarolina Posts: 30,976
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    fishlessman said:
    how is north dakota so high.
    South Dakota is actually in worse shape in some ways.  Their ICU capacity is currently at 100%.  They are running out of places to put very sick people.  
    "I've made a note never to piss you two off." - Stike
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  • fishlessman
    fishlessman Posts: 32,759
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    JohnInCarolina said:
    fishlessman said:
    how is north dakota so high.
    South Dakota is actually in worse shape in some ways.  Their ICU capacity is currently at 100%.  They are running out of places to put very sick people.  

    i was looking mostly at the cases in the last 7 days, just doesnt make much sense with the population spread. those states are extremely light with hospitals
    fukahwee maine

    you can lead a fish to water but you can not make him drink it
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  • JohnInCarolina
    JohnInCarolina Posts: 30,976
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    fishlessman said:
    JohnInCarolina said:
    fishlessman said:
    how is north dakota so high.
    South Dakota is actually in worse shape in some ways.  Their ICU capacity is currently at 100%.  They are running out of places to put very sick people.  

    i was looking mostly at the cases in the last 7 days, just doesnt make much sense with the population spread. those states are extremely light with hospitals
    Unfortunately I think the early conventional wisdom about this thing being the most deadly in large cities with extensive public transport is going to prove to be off the mark.  
    "I've made a note never to piss you two off." - Stike
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  • Legume
    Legume Posts: 14,627
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    I don’t know is if this applies Fish, but talking to a few friends recently that live in different rural areas (not Dakotas), they both remarked that masks are rare in small towns, people seem to go about their business as normal and think of Covid as a big city problem.  So, once it lands there, it spreads relatively unchecked until it becomes apparent.
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  • frazzdaddy
    frazzdaddy Posts: 2,617
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    Legume said:
    I don’t know is if this applies Fish, but talking to a few friends recently that live in different rural areas (not Dakotas), they both remarked that masks are rare in small towns, people seem to go about their business as normal and think of Covid as a big city problem.  So, once it lands there, it spreads relatively unchecked until it becomes apparent.
    I agree, same around me.  
    Xl bge ,LG bge, two 4' crusher cone fire pits. Weber Genisis gasser and 
    Two rusty Weber kettles. 

    Two Rivers Farm
    Moncure N.C.
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  • ColtsFan
    ColtsFan Posts: 6,343
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    I had an outpatient procedure yesterday and it was damn near canceled due to the hospital being at capacity with covid patients and redirecting staff to those wards. Not good....The only thing that saved me was being a cancer patient
    ~ John - https://www.instagram.com/hoosier_egger
    XL BGE, LG BGE, KJ Jr, PK Original, Ardore Pizza Oven, King Disc 
    Bloomington, IN - Hoo Hoo Hoo Hoosiers!

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  • Gulfcoastguy
    Gulfcoastguy Posts: 6,303
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    Any wagers on this one making it to 9:15 a.m.?
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  • frazzdaddy
    frazzdaddy Posts: 2,617
    edited November 2020
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    I like the idea of comparing ground truth to what we read or see. We have folks on here from all over this and other countries. 
    Xl bge ,LG bge, two 4' crusher cone fire pits. Weber Genisis gasser and 
    Two rusty Weber kettles. 

    Two Rivers Farm
    Moncure N.C.
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  • Ozzie_Isaac
    Ozzie_Isaac Posts: 19,087
    edited November 2020
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    A good friend of mine who is a nurse from central Illinois, and is not a democrat, just posted a plea for people to wear masks.  Her hospital is full of COVID patients.  Almost 90 admitted, 23 in ICU and 14 on intubators.  This is in a small town <100k including all surrounding communities.  There are multiple hospitals too.  This is just hers.
    A bison’s level of aggressiveness, both physical and passive, is legendary. - NPS
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  • SciAggie
    SciAggie Posts: 6,481
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    Legume said:
    I don’t know is if this applies Fish, but talking to a few friends recently that live in different rural areas (not Dakotas), they both remarked that masks are rare in small towns, people seem to go about their business as normal and think of Covid as a big city problem.  So, once it lands there, it spreads relatively unchecked until it becomes apparent.
    That's what has happened here. Our little rural community is a hot zone right now.
    Coleman, Texas
    Large BGE & Mini Max for the wok. A few old camp Dutch ovens and a wood fired oven. LSG 24” cabinet offset smoker. There are a few paella pans and a Patagonia cross in the barn. A curing chamber for bacterial transformation of meats...
    "Bourbon slushies. Sure you can cook on the BGE without them, but why would you?"
                                                                                                                          YukonRon
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  • saluki2007
    saluki2007 Posts: 6,354
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    Ozzie_Isaac said:
    A good friend of mine who is a nurse from central Illinois, and is not a democrat, just posted a plea for people to wear masks.  Her hospital is full of COVID patients.  Almost 90 admitted, 23 in ICU and 14 on intubators.  This is in a small town <100k including all surrounding communities.  There are multiple hospitals too.  This is just hers.
    Not sure which hospital you are referring to but the one my wife works at (not osf) stopped doing in-patient elective surgeries until further notice. 
    Large and Small BGE
    Central, IL

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  • Gulfcoastguy
    Gulfcoastguy Posts: 6,303
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    It would be interesting to see if there is any relation to how cold each state is already?
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  • fishlessman
    fishlessman Posts: 32,759
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    Legume said:
    I don’t know is if this applies Fish, but talking to a few friends recently that live in different rural areas (not Dakotas), they both remarked that masks are rare in small towns, people seem to go about their business as normal and think of Covid as a big city problem.  So, once it lands there, it spreads relatively unchecked until it becomes apparent.

    was similar in maine this summer but add in vacationers from everywhere and locals gathering, but it isnt spreading like the dakotas. deaths out there will be higher in percentage, we have covid test places everywhere and i dont know how many hospitals around me within 60 minutes, im guessing 75 but that could be way low
    fukahwee maine

    you can lead a fish to water but you can not make him drink it
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  • frazzdaddy
    frazzdaddy Posts: 2,617
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    Gulfcoastguy said:
    Any wagers on this one making it to 9:15 a.m.?
    It could be a good resource if we just focus on covid and how to get through it.  
    Xl bge ,LG bge, two 4' crusher cone fire pits. Weber Genisis gasser and 
    Two rusty Weber kettles. 

    Two Rivers Farm
    Moncure N.C.
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  • fishlessman
    fishlessman Posts: 32,759
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    Canugghead said:
    Sadly, tackling Pentagon is more important than fighting Pandemic. 
    Priorities of Pissed President.  There you have it, PeePeePeePeePee.

    dont worry canugghead, theres a plan being developed to sail a military hospital boat to the dakotas this winter =)
    fukahwee maine

    you can lead a fish to water but you can not make him drink it
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  • JohnInCarolina
    JohnInCarolina Posts: 30,976
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    Gulfcoastguy said:
    It would be interesting to see if there is any relation to how cold each state is already?
    I don't think there's any question that this is playing a role.  We see the same effect during a flu season.  
    "I've made a note never to piss you two off." - Stike
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  • JohnInCarolina
    JohnInCarolina Posts: 30,976
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    CIDRAP's podcasts are a really good, informative resource on the state of play with regard to the pandemic.  If you haven't discovered them yet, they are here:

    https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/podcasts-webinars
    "I've made a note never to piss you two off." - Stike
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  • Gulfcoastguy
    Gulfcoastguy Posts: 6,303
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    Do you think that there might be a correlation between how quickly it got cold in the various states?  More time indoors in tight quarters, poorer healthcare in general?
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  • frazzdaddy
    frazzdaddy Posts: 2,617
    edited November 2020
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    Gulfcoastguy said:
    Do you think that there might be a correlation between how quickly it got cold in the various states?  More time indoors in tight quarters, poorer healthcare in general?
    Proximity for sure. I would speculate that warm exhaled breath may atomize more efficiently and spread further at colder temps? That might be wrong though.
    Xl bge ,LG bge, two 4' crusher cone fire pits. Weber Genisis gasser and 
    Two rusty Weber kettles. 

    Two Rivers Farm
    Moncure N.C.
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  • fishlessman
    fishlessman Posts: 32,759
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    dont know much about the dakotas but have been in montana several times. everything is a 4 hour drive round trip, even grocery trips are rotated between different families. small general stores can also be the diner/liquor store/bar room etc so theres gathering.  in maine there was a diner/bar/strip house/hotel near a place i used to fish
    fukahwee maine

    you can lead a fish to water but you can not make him drink it
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  • SamIAm2
    SamIAm2 Posts: 1,898
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    frazzdaddy said:
    Gulfcoastguy said:
    Do you think that there might be a correlation between how quickly it got cold in the various states?  More time indoors in tight quarters, poorer healthcare in general?
    Proximity for sure. I would speculate that warm exhaled breath may atomize more efficiently and spread further at colder temps?
    Avoid the 3 C's - closed spaces, crowded places, and close-contact settings.
    Hard to do that in winter season in much colder climes. Difficulty in many enclosed spaces is the air flow for a sustained time period from heating vents. There may not be enough to knock atomized droplets to the floor. 
    Ubi panis, ibi patria.
    Large - Roswell rig, MiniMax-PS Woo; Cocoa, Fl.
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  • JohnInCarolina
    JohnInCarolina Posts: 30,976
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    JohnInCarolina said:
    CIDRAP's podcasts are a really good, informative resource on the state of play with regard to the pandemic.  If you haven't discovered them yet, they are here:

    https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/podcasts-webinars
    By the way, just after labor day this year (September 7th), the CIDRAP team was forecasting that it wouldn't be long before we were seeing over 100k cases per day.  At the time they made that prediction, we had around 25k cases per day.  

    The latest podcast is pretty sobering, but it was recorded before the news of the Pfizer vaccine broke.  I think it will be interesting to listen to the next one as well to see how that impacts their perspective.  
    "I've made a note never to piss you two off." - Stike
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  • frazzdaddy
    frazzdaddy Posts: 2,617
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    JohnInCarolina said:
    JohnInCarolina said:
    CIDRAP's podcasts are a really good, informative resource on the state of play with regard to the pandemic.  If you haven't discovered them yet, they are here:

    https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/podcasts-webinars
    By the way, just after labor day this year (September 7th), the CIDRAP team was forecasting that it wouldn't be long before we were seeing over 100k cases per day.  At the time they made that prediction, we had around 25k cases per day.  

    The latest podcast is pretty sobering, but it was recorded before the news of the Pfizer vaccine broke.  I think it will be interesting to listen to the next one as well to see how that impacts their perspective.  
    Episode 22 was very helpful for us. Thank you for that. They are using Ensemble Modeling which has worked very well with weather forecasting.  
    Xl bge ,LG bge, two 4' crusher cone fire pits. Weber Genisis gasser and 
    Two rusty Weber kettles. 

    Two Rivers Farm
    Moncure N.C.
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  • Acn
    Acn Posts: 4,424
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    Gulfcoastguy said:
    Do you think that there might be a correlation between how quickly it got cold in the various states?  More time indoors in tight quarters, poorer healthcare in general?
    I remember that being theorized back in May/June or so, as it shifted from the north to the south and west; as NY/New England etc could start spending more time outdoors and others were retreating to the comfort of AC.  More time inside = more spread.

    LBGE

    Pikesville, MD

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  • Lit
    Lit Posts: 9,053
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    Georgia has seen a pretty big decline over the last several months. Locally our schools are all open for in person learning and very few issues. The whole weather thing doesnt seem right since our cases were high in August which is the hottest part of the year.
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  • Gulfcoastguy
    Gulfcoastguy Posts: 6,303
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    Lit said:
    Georgia has seen a pretty big decline over the last several months. Locally our schools are all open for in person learning and very few issues. The whole weather thing doesnt seem right since our cases were high in August which is the hottest part of the year.
    In the South August is air conditioning weather. Plus that is when schools start. Normally the fall is great for outdoor activities.
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  • Legume
    Legume Posts: 14,627
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    Elections are going to spike this as well.

    Voting in person, the various protest and celebratory gatherings I saw on TV just made me cringe.
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