Tracking Covid Spread

frazzdaddy

Like ripples in a pond.

 https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days

fishlessman

how is north dakota so high.

JohnInCarolina

fishlessman said:

how is north dakota so high.

South Dakota is actually in worse shape in some ways.  Their ICU capacity is currently at 100%.  They are running out of places to put very sick people.  

JohnInCarolina

fishlessman

JohnInCarolina said:

fishlessman said:

how is north dakota so high.

South Dakota is actually in worse shape in some ways.  Their ICU capacity is currently at 100%.  They are running out of places to put very sick people.  

i was looking mostly at the cases in the last 7 days, just doesnt make much sense with the population spread. those states are extremely light with hospitals

JohnInCarolina

fishlessman said:

JohnInCarolina said:

fishlessman said:

how is north dakota so high.

South Dakota is actually in worse shape in some ways.  Their ICU capacity is currently at 100%.  They are running out of places to put very sick people.  

i was looking mostly at the cases in the last 7 days, just doesnt make much sense with the population spread. those states are extremely light with hospitals

Unfortunately I think the early conventional wisdom about this thing being the most deadly in large cities with extensive public transport is going to prove to be off the mark.  

Legume

I don’t know is if this applies Fish, but talking to a few friends recently that live in different rural areas (not Dakotas), they both remarked that masks are rare in small towns, people seem to go about their business as normal and think of Covid as a big city problem.  So, once it lands there, it spreads relatively unchecked until it becomes apparent.

frazzdaddy

Legume said:

I don’t know is if this applies Fish, but talking to a few friends recently that live in different rural areas (not Dakotas), they both remarked that masks are rare in small towns, people seem to go about their business as normal and think of Covid as a big city problem.  So, once it lands there, it spreads relatively unchecked until it becomes apparent.

I agree, same around me.  

ColtsFan

I had an outpatient procedure yesterday and it was damn near canceled due to the hospital being at capacity with covid patients and redirecting staff to those wards. Not good....The only thing that saved me was being a cancer patient

Gulfcoastguy

Any wagers on this one making it to 9:15 a.m.?

frazzdaddy

I like the idea of comparing ground truth to what we read or see. We have folks on here from all over this and other countries. 

Canugghead

Sadly, tackling Pentagon is more important than fighting Pandemic. 

Priorities of Pissed President.  There you have it, PeePeePeePeePee.

Ozzie_Isaac

A good friend of mine who is a nurse from central Illinois, and is not a democrat, just posted a plea for people to wear masks.  Her hospital is full of COVID patients.  Almost 90 admitted, 23 in ICU and 14 on intubators.  This is in a small town <100k including all surrounding communities.  There are multiple hospitals too.  This is just hers.

SciAggie

Legume said:

I don’t know is if this applies Fish, but talking to a few friends recently that live in different rural areas (not Dakotas), they both remarked that masks are rare in small towns, people seem to go about their business as normal and think of Covid as a big city problem.  So, once it lands there, it spreads relatively unchecked until it becomes apparent.

That's what has happened here. Our little rural community is a hot zone right now.

saluki2007

Ozzie_Isaac said:

A good friend of mine who is a nurse from central Illinois, and is not a democrat, just posted a plea for people to wear masks.  Her hospital is full of COVID patients.  Almost 90 admitted, 23 in ICU and 14 on intubators.  This is in a small town <100k including all surrounding communities.  There are multiple hospitals too.  This is just hers.

Not sure which hospital you are referring to but the one my wife works at (not osf) stopped doing in-patient elective surgeries until further notice. 

Gulfcoastguy

It would be interesting to see if there is any relation to how cold each state is already?

fishlessman

Legume said:

I don’t know is if this applies Fish, but talking to a few friends recently that live in different rural areas (not Dakotas), they both remarked that masks are rare in small towns, people seem to go about their business as normal and think of Covid as a big city problem.  So, once it lands there, it spreads relatively unchecked until it becomes apparent.

was similar in maine this summer but add in vacationers from everywhere and locals gathering, but it isnt spreading like the dakotas. deaths out there will be higher in percentage, we have covid test places everywhere and i dont know how many hospitals around me within 60 minutes, im guessing 75 but that could be way low

frazzdaddy

Gulfcoastguy said:

Any wagers on this one making it to 9:15 a.m.?

It could be a good resource if we just focus on covid and how to get through it.  

fishlessman

Canugghead said:

Sadly, tackling Pentagon is more important than fighting Pandemic. 

Priorities of Pissed President.  There you have it, PeePeePeePeePee.

dont worry canugghead, theres a plan being developed to sail a military hospital boat to the dakotas this winter

JohnInCarolina

Gulfcoastguy said:

It would be interesting to see if there is any relation to how cold each state is already?

I don't think there's any question that this is playing a role.  We see the same effect during a flu season.  

JohnInCarolina

CIDRAP's podcasts are a really good, informative resource on the state of play with regard to the pandemic.  If you haven't discovered them yet, they are here:

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/podcasts-webinars

Gulfcoastguy

Do you think that there might be a correlation between how quickly it got cold in the various states?  More time indoors in tight quarters, poorer healthcare in general?

frazzdaddy

Gulfcoastguy said:

Do you think that there might be a correlation between how quickly it got cold in the various states?  More time indoors in tight quarters, poorer healthcare in general?

Proximity for sure. I would speculate that warm exhaled breath may atomize more efficiently and spread further at colder temps? That might be wrong though.

fishlessman

dont know much about the dakotas but have been in montana several times. everything is a 4 hour drive round trip, even grocery trips are rotated between different families. small general stores can also be the diner/liquor store/bar room etc so theres gathering.  in maine there was a diner/bar/strip house/hotel near a place i used to fish

SamIAm2

frazzdaddy said:

Gulfcoastguy said:

Do you think that there might be a correlation between how quickly it got cold in the various states?  More time indoors in tight quarters, poorer healthcare in general?

Proximity for sure. I would speculate that warm exhaled breath may atomize more efficiently and spread further at colder temps?

Avoid the 3 C's - closed spaces, crowded places, and close-contact settings.
Hard to do that in winter season in much colder climes. Difficulty in many enclosed spaces is the air flow for a sustained time period from heating vents. There may not be enough to knock atomized droplets to the floor. 

JohnInCarolina

JohnInCarolina said:

CIDRAP's podcasts are a really good, informative resource on the state of play with regard to the pandemic.  If you haven't discovered them yet, they are here:

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/podcasts-webinars

By the way, just after labor day this year (September 7th), the CIDRAP team was forecasting that it wouldn't be long before we were seeing over 100k cases per day.  At the time they made that prediction, we had around 25k cases per day.  

The latest podcast is pretty sobering, but it was recorded before the news of the Pfizer vaccine broke.  I think it will be interesting to listen to the next one as well to see how that impacts their perspective.  

frazzdaddy

JohnInCarolina said:

JohnInCarolina said:

CIDRAP's podcasts are a really good, informative resource on the state of play with regard to the pandemic.  If you haven't discovered them yet, they are here:

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/podcasts-webinars

By the way, just after labor day this year (September 7th), the CIDRAP team was forecasting that it wouldn't be long before we were seeing over 100k cases per day.  At the time they made that prediction, we had around 25k cases per day.  

The latest podcast is pretty sobering, but it was recorded before the news of the Pfizer vaccine broke.  I think it will be interesting to listen to the next one as well to see how that impacts their perspective.  

Episode 22 was very helpful for us. Thank you for that. They are using Ensemble Modeling which has worked very well with weather forecasting.  

Acn

Gulfcoastguy said:

Do you think that there might be a correlation between how quickly it got cold in the various states?  More time indoors in tight quarters, poorer healthcare in general?

I remember that being theorized back in May/June or so, as it shifted from the north to the south and west; as NY/New England etc could start spending more time outdoors and others were retreating to the comfort of AC.  More time inside = more spread.

Lit

Georgia has seen a pretty big decline over the last several months. Locally our schools are all open for in person learning and very few issues. The whole weather thing doesnt seem right since our cases were high in August which is the hottest part of the year.

Gulfcoastguy

Lit said:

Georgia has seen a pretty big decline over the last several months. Locally our schools are all open for in person learning and very few issues. The whole weather thing doesnt seem right since our cases were high in August which is the hottest part of the year.

In the South August is air conditioning weather. Plus that is when schools start. Normally the fall is great for outdoor activities.

Legume

Elections are going to spike this as well.

Voting in person, the various protest and celebratory gatherings I saw on TV just made me cringe.