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Will it?

2»

Comments

  • HeavyG
    HeavyG Posts: 10,323
    HeavyG said:
    TN_Egger said:
    DT loves to take credit for the surge, but the chart below says otherwise.  When will it end???

    That chart says otherwise because someone wanted it to appear otherwise.

    Why is the spacing on that chart the way it is AFTER 2016??  The spacing between 20,000-26,000 (6000 difference) is the same as the spacing between 8000-1000 (2000 difference).  They tightened it upt so it would make a nice straight line.

    Here's one that actually show the trend line change angles in Nov 2016.




    from the chart, obama averaged about 1750 points per year compared to trumps 5000 points per year with three weeks to go =)
    So in "Dreamland" the Dow will be at 40K when The Donald is reelected in Nov. 2020.
    A year ago, if someone told you the Dow was going to be at 25,000 you probably would have called in Dreamland too, right?

    Can everyone just agree this is a GOOD thing??  Doesn't matter who the president is. 
    Not really. I'm old enough to remember when the wags were predicting the Dow would hit 30K by 2008 so 25K in late 2017 seems like kind of a letdown. :)

    Now, of course, many wags are making quite a few predictions - 36K in the next two years, 40K by 2020, 50K by 2020. Who knows.

    This guy seems to know tho:

    "However, Paul Mampilly’s “Dow 50,000” prediction is really catching eyes, and one should pay heed — considering his past predictions have been spot-on.

    Mampilly was thrust into the limelight when the hedge fund he managed was named by Barron’s as one of the “World’s Best.” But he became legendary when he won the prestigious Templeton Foundation investment competition by making a 76% return … during the 2008 and 2009 economic crisis (without shorting stocks or making risky investments).

    Right now, Mampilly says: “Stocks are on the cusp of an historic surge. They could easily hit 50,000. It will be a bull market run that will dwarf the tech boom of the ‘90s. I’ve never been more certain of anything in my career.”

    Mampilly says “Dow 50,000” is all but set in stone. It doesn’t matter who wins the presidential election or what happens in the global economy. None of that matters."

    ***

    Of course his prediction recognizes the general irrelevance of who the POTUS is at the moment.

    If it turns out that instead of continuing our surge to 50K we may be starting a change in a natural business cycle and the Dow actually drops 10K or 20K by 2025 during The Donalds second term (yeah...as if that will be a thing :) ) will those who are giving The Donald the credit for the current surge blame him for the plummet?*

    Whether the current surge is a good thing remains to be seen. Still seems pretty unclear whether this will benefit the broader society or just continue the trend of concentrating more wealth in the hands of the few.



    *Trick question - obviously the answer is "Of course not, it's the dumbocrats fault".


    “Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away.” ― Philip K. Diçk




  • johnnyp
    johnnyp Posts: 3,932
    I got a 1.9% cost of living raise approved by the Cheeto in Chief.  Ill take it 
    XL & MM BGE, 36" Blackstone - Newport News, VA
  • Not to rain on anybodies parade but I see ever increasing DOW averages as the ever decreasing value of the dollar. Borrow and spend gave way to print and spend with both parties. The question is can it last long enough for the increase in GDP to overtake the deficit. On the other hand in the paper today the unemployment rate is at a 17 year low mark. More people working means a lesser drain on government funded social programs. Deep thoughts when I have a prime Angus sirloin roast on the Egg.
  • bud812 said:
    I'll bet it's because of Obama.  ;) 
    In a way Obama is responsible for it...

    by leaving.
    Gittin' there...
  • johnnyp
    johnnyp Posts: 3,932
    Spend, spend, spend.  For anyone who has never worked with/for the government, the amount of wasteful spending would blow your mind.  Staggering amounts of money. 

    Don’t let them lie to you. 
    XL & MM BGE, 36" Blackstone - Newport News, VA
  • BeerMike
    BeerMike Posts: 317
    More people working means a lesser drain on government funded social programs. 
    The Democrats don't like it when the peasants are not dependent on government social programs.  
    I think it's time for another beer!
    BGEing since 2003
    2 Large BGEs 
    Sold small BGE, 3rd and 4th large BGEs and XL BGE (at wife's "request"....sad face)
    Living the dream in Wisconsin
  • RajunCajun
    RajunCajun Posts: 1,035
    Wow!  And to think that I was just excited to think about closing the year at 25k.  IMO, charts are simply charts and can manipulated to support any agenda.  Hence why I always need to review the raw data and other stats before I buy into a chart much less draw a conclusion.  Also, we are overdue for a correction and when it happens, who will take the blame for it?  I would prefer to see a 3% correction with the market at 25k than at 19k.  Lastly, let us not forget those that speculated that if DT took office we would see a crash worse than the crash of 1929.  Those that didn't pay for the ticket missed the ride.  I certainly respect the opinions of everyone here.  There is no place better to live than Merica!!!  
    The problem with a problem is that you don't know it's a problem until it's a problem, and that is a big problem.
    Holding the company together with three spreadsheets and two cans connected by a long piece of string.
  • stlcharcoal
    stlcharcoal Posts: 4,684
     Lastly, let us not forget those that speculated that if DT took office we would see a crash worse than the crash of 1929.  Those that didn't pay for the ticket missed the ride. 
    Remember election night as all the network news anchors wiped their tears and said the Dow futures were DOWN 900 points and going to crash further the next day.  Instead it shot up 250 pts the next morning and never stopped.
  • RajunCajun
    RajunCajun Posts: 1,035
    A politician rarely makes a good business manager.  A very old wise man once told me that if you ever see a successful business owned by a politician, look deep, there's gotta be something corrupt.  He was old school, for sure.  I just think that politicians having been screwing it up for years.  Let's give the businessman a chance to see what he can do before we fault him.  Peace out folks!
    The problem with a problem is that you don't know it's a problem until it's a problem, and that is a big problem.
    Holding the company together with three spreadsheets and two cans connected by a long piece of string.
  • BeerMike
    BeerMike Posts: 317
    Remember election night as all the network news anchors wiped their tears and said the Dow futures were DOWN 900 points and going to crash further the next day.  Instead it shot up 250 pts the next morning and never stopped.
    The fake news will never stop. The lame stream media is so dishonest.  They just love to tell us what to think and what to do.  Shame, shame, shame on them. 
    I think it's time for another beer!
    BGEing since 2003
    2 Large BGEs 
    Sold small BGE, 3rd and 4th large BGEs and XL BGE (at wife's "request"....sad face)
    Living the dream in Wisconsin
  • SGH
    SGH Posts: 28,791
    Lol!  You had some of your best years under “Slick Willie,” and you know it!
    No doubt about it. I have always gave Willie credit for what he did for the economy. In the oil industry, the Downstream sector had some of its best years ever under Willie. I didn’t care for his beliefs, but he certainly created jobs in the power and downstream oil industry. There is simply no denying that.  

    Location- Just "this side" of Biloxi, Ms.

    Status- Standing by.

    The greatest barrier against all wisdom, the stronghold against knowledge itself, is the single thought, in ones mind, that they already have it all figured out. 

  • SGH
    SGH Posts: 28,791
    The Buffalo has ran amuck.  

    Location- Just "this side" of Biloxi, Ms.

    Status- Standing by.

    The greatest barrier against all wisdom, the stronghold against knowledge itself, is the single thought, in ones mind, that they already have it all figured out. 

  • Botch
    Botch Posts: 15,427
    HeavyG said:
    This guy seems to know tho:
     
    "However, Paul Mampilly’s “Dow 50,000” prediction is really catching eyes, and one should pay heed — considering his past predictions have been spot-on.

    Mampilly was thrust into the limelight when the hedge fund he managed was named by Barron’s as one of the “World’s Best.” But he became legendary when he won the prestigious Templeton Foundation investment competition by making a 76% return … during the 2008 and 2009 economic crisis (without shorting stocks or making risky investments).

    Right now, Mampilly says: “Stocks are on the cusp of an historic surge. They could easily hit 50,000. It will be a bull market run that will dwarf the tech boom of the ‘90s. I’ve never been more certain of anything in my career.”

    Mampilly says “Dow 50,000” is all but set in stone. It doesn’t matter who wins the presidential election or what happens in the global economy. None of that matters."

    ***

    Of course his prediction recognizes the general irrelevance of who the POTUS is at the moment.

    If it turns out that instead of continuing our surge to 50K we may be starting a change in a natural business cycle and the Dow actually drops 10K or 20K by 2025 during The Donalds second term (yeah...as if that will be a thing :) ) will those who are giving The Donald the credit for the current surge blame him for the plummet?*

    Whether the current surge is a good thing remains to be seen. Still seems pretty unclear whether this will benefit the broader society or just continue the trend of concentrating more wealth in the hands of the few.

    This makes me nervous.  
    Twice in my life I've had a sizable chunk of change to invest in the stock market, and both times the market crashed, badly, immediately after I did.  Granted, it's recovered both times and advanced even higher, but just once in my life I'd like to see a drop, then invest, and watch it recover.  We were due for a market correction before the election, which hasn't happened (yet).  Both the Obama/Yellin low borrowing rates, and the Trump tax and regulation cuts, are designed (we've been told) to allow Big Business to invest in R&D and their workers, but in both cases they are instead buying back their own stocks.  Which does cause the market to soar, but for how long?  
    I'm nervous; don't want to cause another crash for the third time, but don't want to miss out if the market is, indeed, going to explode.  Crap.  
    _____________

    "I mean, I don't just kill guys, I'm notorious for doing in houseplants."  - Maggie, Northern Exposure


  • DoubleEgger
    DoubleEgger Posts: 17,125
    edited December 2017
    Botch said:
    HeavyG said:
    This guy seems to know tho:
     
    "However, Paul Mampilly’s “Dow 50,000” prediction is really catching eyes, and one should pay heed — considering his past predictions have been spot-on.

    Mampilly was thrust into the limelight when the hedge fund he managed was named by Barron’s as one of the “World’s Best.” But he became legendary when he won the prestigious Templeton Foundation investment competition by making a 76% return … during the 2008 and 2009 economic crisis (without shorting stocks or making risky investments).

    Right now, Mampilly says: “Stocks are on the cusp of an historic surge. They could easily hit 50,000. It will be a bull market run that will dwarf the tech boom of the ‘90s. I’ve never been more certain of anything in my career.”

    Mampilly says “Dow 50,000” is all but set in stone. It doesn’t matter who wins the presidential election or what happens in the global economy. None of that matters."

    ***

    Of course his prediction recognizes the general irrelevance of who the POTUS is at the moment.

    If it turns out that instead of continuing our surge to 50K we may be starting a change in a natural business cycle and the Dow actually drops 10K or 20K by 2025 during The Donalds second term (yeah...as if that will be a thing :) ) will those who are giving The Donald the credit for the current surge blame him for the plummet?*

    Whether the current surge is a good thing remains to be seen. Still seems pretty unclear whether this will benefit the broader society or just continue the trend of concentrating more wealth in the hands of the few.

    This makes me nervous.  
    Twice in my life I've had a sizable chunk of change to invest in the stock market, and both times the market crashed, badly, immediately after I did.  Granted, it's recovered both times and advanced even higher, but just once in my life I'd like to see a drop, then invest, and watch it recover.  We were due for a market correction before the election, which hasn't happened (yet).  Both the Obama/Yellin low borrowing rates, and the Trump tax and regulation cuts, are designed (we've been told) to allow Big Business to invest in R&D and their workers, but in both cases they are instead buying back their own stocks.  Which does cause the market to soar, but for how long?  
    I'm nervous; don't want to cause another crash for the third time, but don't want to miss out if the market is, indeed, going to explode.  Crap.  
    The wild speculation in Bitcoin and Ripple tells me we are in for a major correction. Feels just like the exuberance before the Dot Com bust. 
  • bud812
    bud812 Posts: 1,869
    Don't remind me of the Dot Com bust, I lost my a$$ & a good chunk of my retirement cash.

    Not to get technical, but according to chemistry alcohol is a solution...

    Large & Small BGE

    Stockton Ca.

  • Botch said:
    HeavyG said:
    This guy seems to know tho:
     
    "However, Paul Mampilly’s “Dow 50,000” prediction is really catching eyes, and one should pay heed — considering his past predictions have been spot-on.

    Mampilly was thrust into the limelight when the hedge fund he managed was named by Barron’s as one of the “World’s Best.” But he became legendary when he won the prestigious Templeton Foundation investment competition by making a 76% return … during the 2008 and 2009 economic crisis (without shorting stocks or making risky investments).

    Right now, Mampilly says: “Stocks are on the cusp of an historic surge. They could easily hit 50,000. It will be a bull market run that will dwarf the tech boom of the ‘90s. I’ve never been more certain of anything in my career.”

    Mampilly says “Dow 50,000” is all but set in stone. It doesn’t matter who wins the presidential election or what happens in the global economy. None of that matters."

    ***

    Of course his prediction recognizes the general irrelevance of who the POTUS is at the moment.

    If it turns out that instead of continuing our surge to 50K we may be starting a change in a natural business cycle and the Dow actually drops 10K or 20K by 2025 during The Donalds second term (yeah...as if that will be a thing :) ) will those who are giving The Donald the credit for the current surge blame him for the plummet?*

    Whether the current surge is a good thing remains to be seen. Still seems pretty unclear whether this will benefit the broader society or just continue the trend of concentrating more wealth in the hands of the few.

    This makes me nervous.  
    Twice in my life I've had a sizable chunk of change to invest in the stock market, and both times the market crashed, badly, immediately after I did.  Granted, it's recovered both times and advanced even higher, but just once in my life I'd like to see a drop, then invest, and watch it recover.  We were due for a market correction before the election, which hasn't happened (yet).  Both the Obama/Yellin low borrowing rates, and the Trump tax and regulation cuts, are designed (we've been told) to allow Big Business to invest in R&D and their workers, but in both cases they are instead buying back their own stocks.  Which does cause the market to soar, but for how long?  
    I'm nervous; don't want to cause another crash for the third time, but don't want to miss out if the market is, indeed, going to explode.  Crap.  
    I early 2007 my mother said that the news and the stock market reminded her of the Great Depression. I pulled my 453C out of the stock market and put it into a bond based fund that guaranteed not to go negative but that paid a pittance compared to what the stock market was. She was right. Nobody could have predicted 2001 but the end of W and the beginning of O was obvious to the gray hairs.
  • A politician rarely makes a good business manager.  A very old wise man once told me that if you ever see a successful business owned by a politician, look deep, there's gotta be something corrupt.  He was old school, for sure.  I just think that politicians having been screwing it up for years.  Let's give the businessman a chance to see what he can do before we fault him.  Peace out folks!
    Trump set up a fake university that took retired folks for a lot of their savings.  I’m all for giving different types of people an opportunity to run the government, but let’s not turn a blind eye to the actions of an obviously corrupt individual.  
    "I've made a note never to piss you two off." - Stike
  • RajunCajun
    RajunCajun Posts: 1,035
    @JohnInCarolina , Happy New Year to ya, brother!  I don't think we really know all of what transpired with that deal....nor does the liberal media truly inform us in a factual and accurate fact manner....rarely if so.  Regardless of how controversial we make this conversation, everyone is entitled to  his/her opinion and I'm cool with it.  It's part of what makes America the best place in the world to live and I'll drink to that.  Cheers!    
    The problem with a problem is that you don't know it's a problem until it's a problem, and that is a big problem.
    Holding the company together with three spreadsheets and two cans connected by a long piece of string.
  • @JohnInCarolina , Happy New Year to ya, brother!  I don't think we really know all of what transpired with that deal....nor does the liberal media truly inform us in a factual and accurate fact manner....rarely if so.  Regardless of how controversial we make this conversation, everyone is entitled to  his/her opinion and I'm cool with it.  It's part of what makes America the best place in the world to live and I'll drink to that.  Cheers!    

    I don't think him paying $25 million to settle the issue is a strong indication of his innocence.
    Stillwater, MN
  • @JohnInCarolina , Happy New Year to ya, brother!  I don't think we really know all of what transpired with that deal....nor does the liberal media truly inform us in a factual and accurate fact manner....rarely if so.  Regardless of how controversial we make this conversation, everyone is entitled to  his/her opinion and I'm cool with it.  It's part of what makes America the best place in the world to live and I'll drink to that.  Cheers!    

    I don't think him paying $25 million to settle the issue is a strong indication of his innocence.
    Lol - ya think?
    "I've made a note never to piss you two off." - Stike
  • RajunCajun
    RajunCajun Posts: 1,035
    edited January 2018
    And six days later, it did.
    The problem with a problem is that you don't know it's a problem until it's a problem, and that is a big problem.
    Holding the company together with three spreadsheets and two cans connected by a long piece of string.
  • RajunCajun
    RajunCajun Posts: 1,035
    Quite interesting...
    The problem with a problem is that you don't know it's a problem until it's a problem, and that is a big problem.
    Holding the company together with three spreadsheets and two cans connected by a long piece of string.