OT subject but worth a main-stream read- OT News Feeds...

lousubcap

More Russia-Ukraine and the fighting:

"If Ukraine’s supporters were hoping for a breakthrough after Kyiv’s forces made a new push in the southeast of the country last week, they were sorely disappointed.

The latest attack, which saw Ukraine throw in thousands of Western-trained reinforcements to drive south from the town of Orikhiv, has not yet yielded significant results, U.S. Defense Department officials told NatSec Daily this week, with one noting that the gains are being measured in the hundreds of meters.

Ukraine now has 150,000 troops committed to the operation across three axes of attack, including multiple Western-trained brigades, said one of the DOD officials, who like others interviewed for this newsletter was granted anonymity to discuss operational details. But Kyiv is still keeping a number of forces in reserve, as soldiers continue probing heavily mined Russian defenses for weak spots.

“They are making mostly small, incremental gains” on all three axes, the official said. “They are still facing stiff Russian resistance — second and third layers of defenses.”

Pentagon spokesperson Brig. Gen. PATRICK RYDER referred questions about the counteroffensive to the Ukrainian military, but noted that “it has and will continue to be a tough fight for them.”

Even when Ukrainian forces manage to clear a minefield and advance, Russia will use artillery and helicopters to drop more mines behind them, trying to trap units between minefields, according to a person who advises the Ukrainian government."

lousubcap

Wednesday Russia-Ukraine update:

"Poland yesterday rushed troops to its eastern border with Belarus after accusing Belarus of violating its airspace with military helicopters. While the Polish military initially denied any border violation, it later said the intrusion occurred “at a very low height, hard to intercept by radar.” Belarus denied any violation and accused Poland of fabricating the accusation to justify its military buildup. Agnieszka Pikulicka-Wilczewska reports for Reuters. 

A Russian drone strike has hit port facilities in the south of Ukraine’s Odesa region, starting fires and damaging grain silos and port infrastructure, authorities say. Jaroslav Lukiv reports for BBC News. 

Russia said it had repelled an overnight Ukrainian drone attack aimed at its patrol boats in the Black Sea.

Drones struck populated areas in the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, destroying two floors of a college dormitory, according to local officials. Kharkiv Mayor Ihor Terekhov said there had been three separate attacks on Ukraine’s second-largest city.

Ukraine thwarted an overnight attempt by a Russian saboteur group to cross its northern border, Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko wrote on the Telegram messaging app. “Last night, in the Chernihiv region, border guards stopped an attempt by an enemy saboteur-reconnaissance group to cross the state border of Ukraine within the Semenivka community,” he said.

Russia downed a drone over a district of Sevastopol, the city on the Crimean Peninsula that is home to the country’s Black Sea naval fleet, according to the Moscow-installed local governor.

Ukraine’s Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar said Russia is “quite persistently” trying to stop Kyiv’s advance in the direction of Bakhmut, but has been unsuccessful."

lousubcap

Another update on Russia and the UN brokered Ukraine grain deal:

"ERDOĞAN’S GRAIN DEAL PLEA: Turkish President RECEP TAYYIP ERDOĞAN spoke with Russian President VLADIMIR PUTINtoday, urging Moscow and Kyiv to avoid escalating conflict and resume the grain deal that Russia pulled out of last month.

During the call, Putin reiterated his stance that the Black Sea Grain Initiative’s “further extension was meaningless” until its conditions for the deal are met, according to a Kremlin statement. Meanwhile, Ankara, which brokered the initiative with the United Nations, “will keep up with its intense efforts” to reinstate the deal, Turkish officials said in a statement, per the New York Times’ SAFAK TIMUR, IVAN NECHEPURENKO and MATTHEW MPOKE BIGG.

Since Moscow pulled out of the deal, Russian forces have targeted Ukrainian ports and destroyed massive amounts of grain. The latest attack came overnight along the Danube River, with drones decimating some 44,000 tons of grain that had been earmarked for Africa, China and the Middle East."

lousubcap

Thursday Russia-Ukraine update:

"Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has called for easing tensions between Ukraine and one of its most vocal allies, Poland. The diplomatic spat began after Poland limited imports of Ukrainian foods to bolster its farming sector. The resulting complaints led Poland to say Ukraine should “start appreciating the role Poland has played for Ukraine in recent months and years.” The Polish ambassador was subsequently summoned by Ukrainian officials, which drew strong criticism from Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki. Nicolas Camut and Bartosz Brzeziński report for POLITICO. 

Russian drones continue to strike Ukrainian food export infrastructure, hitting grain silos, a marine terminal, and port administrative buildings in and around Izmail on the Danube River, Ukrainian officials said. Yesterday’s strike coincided with the highly anticipated phone call between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who helped broker the now-ended Black Sea grain deal. Erdogan warned Putin against escalation and said Turkey would use “intense” diplomacy to restart the grain deal. Jared Malsin and Laurence Norman report for the Wall Street Journal. 

Ukrainians in Russian-occupied territory are being forced to adopt Russian citizenship. Ukrainians who do not assume Russian citizenship “are subjected to threats, intimidation, restrictions on humanitarian aid and basic necessities, and possible detention or deportation…” Moscow claims to have given more than 3 million Ukrainians Russian passports since 2014. Conflict Observatory reports. "

lousubcap

Friday Russia-Ukraine update:

"The paramilitary organization Wagner group in Belarus is trying to “destabilize” NATO, Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki warned yesterday. Morawiecki said that the number of Wagner troops in Belarus could exceed 4,000. In a meeting with Morawiecki, Lithuania’s President Gitanas Nausėda said, “We stay vigilant and prepared for any possible scenario.” Claudia Chiappa reports for POLITICO.

Russian warships destroyed Ukrainian boat drones as they attacked a Russian naval base near the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk today, Russia’s defense ministry said. Reuters reports.

And counter reporting on the above from the BBC-

A Russian naval ship has been damaged in a Ukrainian naval drone attack in the Black Sea, Ukrainian sources say.Link below:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66402046?xtor=AL-72-[partner]-[gnl.newsletters]-[headline]-[news]-[bizdev]-[isapi]&xtor=ES-213-[BBC News Newsletter]-2023August4-[top+news+stories]

Russia is looking to secure further munitions supplies from North Korea, a move that U.S. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said would violate several U.N. Security Council resolutions. “This is yet another example of how desperate Putin is becoming, because his war machine is being affected by the sanctions and the export controls,” Kirby added. Ammunition shortages have been a problem for Russia and Ukraine. Vivian Salama reports for the Wall Street Journal. 

Ukrainian pilots will begin training in F-16 fighter jets this month, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said. The jets would then be transferred after training, a task Zelenskyy conceded would be “challenging.” Niha Masih, Victoria Bisset, Serhiy Morgunov, Natalia Abbakumova, and Eve Sampson report for the Washington Post. 

Infighting among Russia’s pro-war bloggers is increasingly coming to the fore. Many bloggers praised Yevgeny Prigozhin, whose paramilitary organization Wagner group relocated to Belarus after a failed armed action. Last month, a well-known pro-war blogger who had criticized the Kremlin’s conduct of the war, Igor Girkin, was accused of engaging in extremist activities after calling Russian President Vladimir Putin a “nothingness” who had managed to “throw dust in the eyes” of his people. Valeriya Safronova reports for the New York Times. "

lousubcap

More from Bloomberg News on the drone attack on the above Russian ship:

Ukraine Attack on Russian Warship Disrupts Oil and Grain Export Hub

By Bloomberg News (Bloomberg) —

Russia’s commodity export hub of Novorossiysk in the Black Sea was closed for several hours on Friday after a Ukrainian drone attack on a naval vessel, the first time that operations at the key shipment point for oil and grains have been disrupted by the war.

The overnight assault by two naval drones was repelled without damage to port facilities, according to the Russian Defense Ministry. Ukraine’s state security service was responsible for the attack that targeted and disabled the Russian landing ship Olenegorsky Gornyak, according to a security official familiar with the matter. 

Russia’s Defense Ministry didn’t respond to questions about the status of the ship.

The incident highlights the growing risk to the flow of raw materials from the Black Sea. Moscow is seeking to further cripple Ukraine’s ability to export grains, while Kyiv has threatened commensurate action against Russia. 

“This attack on Novorossiysk seems to have been very limited, but the risk of further attacks on Russian and Ukrainian ports and export infrastructure will lead to a lot of volatility,” said Carlos Mera, an analyst at Rabobank. "

Gulfcoastguy

They also hit a Russian oil tanker.

lousubcap

An interesting and accurate read from the Washington Post regarding where this country is today:

Country lacks a unifying voice in aftermath of Trump charges

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2023/08/05/us-lacks-unifying-figure/?utm_

JohnInCarolina

lousubcap said:

An interesting and accurate read from the Washington Post regarding where this country is today:

Country lacks a unifying voice in aftermath of Trump charges

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2023/08/05/us-lacks-unifying-figure/?utm_

Gee, I wonder who’s responsible for that?

lousubcap

Russia-Ukraine Monday update:

"A second Russian ship was struck by a Ukrainian drone boat over the weekend as violence in the Black Sea intensified. The attack on the tanker coincided with a new directive from Ukraine’s maritime authority, warning that six Russian Black Sea ports would be considered “war risk” areas until further notice. Marc Santora and Christiaan Triebert report for the New York Times. (As pointed out above by @Gulfcoastguy .)

Moscow mounted a massive missile and drone strike on western Ukraine yesterday in response to the Ukrainian attack on a Russian tanker. Russia launched 70 attack drones and missiles, Ukraine’s air force said. POLITICO reports. 

Two people were killed and four injured after a Russian “guided bomb” struck a blood transfusion center in Ukraine, officials say. “This war crime alone says everything about Russian aggression,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said. Russia has not commented. It has previously denied all allegations of targeting civilians or war crimes. Jaroslav Lukiv reports for BBC News. 

Two bridges connecting Russian-occupied Crimea to the rest of Ukraine were struck yesterday as Ukraine attempts to bring the war to Russian-held territory. The strikes halted traffic on both bridges and injured one driver. A gas pipeline near one of the bridges was also damaged, cutting off supplies to more than 20,000 people. Matthew Mpoke Bigg, Vivek Shankar, and Anushka Patil report for the New York Times. "

lousubcap

More Russia-Ukraine updates today-

"Evolving airwar dynamics: "At the start of Ukraine's southern counter-offensive from June 2023, Russian attack helicopters proved effective," the British military said Monday on social media. Take, for example, mid-July New York Times reporting on the early days of the counteroffensive when some Ukrainian forces found themselves quickly bogged down attempting to traverse minefields, which then made them sitting ducks for Russian helicopter attacks. 

But both sides have adjusted tactics, and "in recent weeks, Russia appears to have been less able to generate effective tactical airpower in the south," the British said Monday without elaborating. 

The British have given Ukraine customized trucks specially designed to shoot down Iranian-made exploding drones. The UK's Times reported the development late last week in a dispatch describing how U.S.-made Patriot air defense systems have proven to be a bit more effective than initially thought. Find imagery of the British Supacat trucks in question, here. 

U.S. and German-provided Patriot and IRIS-T air defense systems are "very effective," and helped Ukraine fend off Russian attacks from "65 different missiles and 178 attack drones" last week, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Sunday. 

On the ground, however, Ukraine's fight remains a tough slog and there hasn't been much progress over the last few days, Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar wrote Monday on Telegram. Russian artillery shelling has temporarily escalated; meanwhile, "The enemy is seriously strengthening its defensive lines," she said Monday morning. "And our troops are now faced not only with mining, but also with concrete engineering fortification of key commanding heights.""

lousubcap

And this from the Ukraine and the way head meeting in Jeddah- last week:

"So more than 40 countries discussed the prospects for peace in Ukraine this past weekend and for now they’re mostly staying quiet about the details of those discussions.

The official readouts of the gathering in Jeddah are roughly what was expected. Officials from Kyiv said it was productive and that all the nations around the table, including China, agreed that a future deal must respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity. Russia, which didn’t attend, called the event a doomed attempt to rally the world behind VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY and his people.

The Guardian, citing an EU official, said China supports another similar session, which if it happens would be the third overall when added to the one earlier this summer in Copenhagen.

NatSec Daily tried to get an inside view of what actually went down in the seaside Saudi city. We got some comments from a senior administration official, but they’re so bland that we would normally not share them with you except that the blandness, in this case, is instructive.

“It was a good and constructive set of conversations with a range of countries who came together to exchange views and build common ground,” the official said. “We were glad that more than 40 countries attended the talks and benefited from the chance to hear directly from Ukraine about the war and to exchange views.” While such statements wouldn’t normally require anonymity, the official insisted on anonymity to detail sensitive negotiations.

Even on China’s involvement, which was a big deal, the official insisted the U.S. was “glad” that Beijing attended “and that they participated in the session in a constructive way.”

In other words, the session appears to have resulted in little in terms of deliverables. “There should be few expectations that such a summit will lead to tangible impacts in the near term when it comes to a ceasefire, much less a political resolution,” said EUGENE CHAUSOVSKY, an expert on Ukraine, Russia and China at the New Lines Institute. But, he added, showing that there’s support for Kyiv within the Global South “could improve Kyiv's negotiating position vis-a-vis Moscow in the medium to longer term.”

The talks, then, weren’t fruitless. It’s hard to get representatives from 40 nations on the same page about anything, let alone a major conflict. And it’s likely that some progress was made, even if it was getting opposing viewpoints heard and better understood.

“This was risky and could have gone badly. Meaning, with China present, this could have moved in the direction of pushing for a settlement on Russia's terms. Instead, Ukraine seems to have secured reiteration of the commitment to sovereignty and initial buy-in to its peace plan,” said ALINA POLYAKOVA, president and CEO of the Center for European Policy Analysis.

But, at this point, it’s hard to say that the war is closer to an end today than it was before the forum. We asked that question of the official but never heard back."

lousubcap

Tuesday Russia-Ukraine update:

"The Jeddah peace talks over the weekend dealt a “huge blow” to Russia, a senior Ukrainian official said yesterday. Over 40 nations, including China, India, the United States, and European countries, participated. Russia did not. The participants agreed to hold another meeting of political advisers within six weeks. Reuters reports. 

China’s top diplomat Wang Yi, in a call yesterday, told Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov that China and Russia are “trustworthy and reliable good friends and partners.” The call comes a day after a Chinese delegation participated in Jeddah peace talks that included Ukraine but not Russia. Wang said that Beijing remains “impartial” on the war in Ukraine. Simone McCarthy reports for CNN. 

The Biden administration is expected to announce $200 million of new weapons aid for Ukraine. The funds are part of the $6.2 billion discovered after a Pentagon accounting error. Mike Stone reports for Reuters.

Belarus has begun military exercises near its border with Poland and Lithuania. The move will raise tensions further after the two NATO members moved troops to secure their borders following the paramilitary organization Wagner group’s relocation to Belarus last month. The Guardian reports. "

lousubcap

And more on Russia-Ukraine:

"Zelenskyy conceded Ukraine's counteroffensive is proceeding more slowly than some observers may prefer, but he also said he knows patience is required to fend off an increasingly exhausted enemy like the Russian military. After all, he said, "Russia, unlike us, can end this war faster, without unnecessary casualties." Read more from that interview published Sunday by Argentina's La Nacion, here.

Developing: Some Ukrainian troops appear to be growing skeptical of the U.S. ways of war, which include an emphasis on synchronized movement of air, land, and sea forces. Said one Ukrainian in the south to Carlotta Gall of the New York Times, "They fought in Afghanistan and Iraq, and the enemy there is not like the Russians." 

But U.S.-provided cluster bombs are helping clear a path through the initial approaches into Russian-occupied territory, the Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday from Zaporizhzhia. However, "Ukraine still hasn't reached the most formidable Russian defenses, a series of trenches, tank traps and other barriers. Military experts say Ukraine likely will need its Leopard 2 tanks and other Western-provided armored vehicles to push through those lines."

One of the oft-praised benefits of cluster bombs is its ability to shred a section of trees,eliminating cover for Russian forces in occupied territory. During one such use of the weapons, "there was no tree left above waist height," a soldier told the Journal. "

lousubcap

Change of pace-Zoom wants its workers back in the office.

Zoom has “Zoom fatigue,” requires workers to return to the office

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2023/08/zoom-has-zoom-fatigue-requires-workers-to-return-to-the-office/?utm_

Edit to add the following article link:

It’s no surprise Zoom wants workers back in the office

https://qz.com/zoom-ironic-remote-work-office-policy-1850714718

JohnInCarolina

http://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/1689060109899407360?s=20

Botch

It is stunning to note how the Party that claims to be christian is about the most unchristian organization in our nation.  

lousubcap

Wednesday Russia-Ukraine update:

"A series of arson attacks on Russian military recruitment centers are being instigated by callers in Ukraine who are tricking elderly Russians into committing such crimes. Ukrainians posing as police or creditors are inciting Russians to attack the centers in exchange for promises to settle debts, the prosecutor general’s office said. Laurence Peter reports for BBC News. 

“Sobering” assessments of the highly-anticipated Ukrainian counter-offensive suggest rebalancing this conflict is “extremely, highly unlikely,” a senior Western diplomat said. Rep. Mike Quigley (D-IL) said, “This is the most difficult time of the war.” The main challenge for the Ukrainian forces is breaking through the dense and multilayered Russian defenses. Jim Sciutto reports for CNN. 

Russia shot down two Ukrainian drones near Moscow today, one near a major airport, its defense ministry said. Reuters reports. 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused Russia of targeting rescue workers by launching missiles at residential areas before striking the same spot once the rescuers arrived. “This is a deliberate decision of the terrorists to cause the greatest pain and damage,” he said. Andrew Jeong reports for the Washington Post.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said his forces would fight back against Russia in the Black Sea to ensure its waters were not blockaded and it could import and export grain and other goods. “If Russia continues to dominate the Black Sea, outside its territory, blockading or firing at us again, launching missiles at our ports, Ukraine will do the same. This is a just defence of our opportunities, of any corridor,” Zelenskyy said.

United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken criticised Moscow for its offer to supply six African nations with free grain, saying the proposal was “laughable” as the nations would receive an estimated 50,000 tonnes. “The Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) delivered 20 million tonnes to lower- and middle-income countries,” Blinken told the BBC, describing Moscow’s offer as “a drop in the bucket of what countries were getting and what they need”."

lousubcap

Thursday Russia-Ukraine update:

"Two drones have been shot down by air defense systems in the Moscow region, which Russia’s Defense Ministry accused Ukraine of using to buzz the city overnight. Andrew Jeong, Leo Sands, and Eve Sampson report for the Washington Post.

At least one person was killed, and over 50 were injured yesterday after an explosion rocked a warehouse near a factory that makes equipment for the Russian military outside Moscow. Officials said the warehouse contained fireworks. The cause of the explosion is being investigated. Marc Santora and Valeriya Safronova report for the New York Times.

The narrative of unity and determination in Ukraine is beginning to fray as the counter-offensive makes little progress. The lack of progress has dampened the hopes of millions of Ukrainians who have been displaced and those living under constant fear of Russian airstrikes. Siobhán O’Grady, Kostiantyn Khudov and Heidi Levine report for the Washington Post.

The US plans to provide Ukraine with $200m in weapons and ammunition to help sustain Kyiv’s counteroffensive, the Associated Press news agency reported, citing two officials. This latest package will include missiles for the High-Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) and the Patriot air defence system, munitions for howitzers and tanks, Javelin rockets, mine-clearing equipment, 12 million rounds of small arms ammunition and demolition munitions, the agency reported."

lousubcap

An interesting twist in the Middle East-

"The United States and Saudi Arabia have reached an initial agreement for Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel in exchange for concessions to the Palestinians, U.S. security guarantees, and assistance with civilian nuclear technology. U.S. officials are hoping the details of this deal can be agreed within a year. Dion Nissenbaum reports for the Wall Street Journal. "

lousubcap

Friday Russia-Ukraine update:

“Constant Russian shelling” has led Ukraine to order the mandatory evacuation of all civilians from 37 settlements in the northeast. Russia says its troops have gained ground in the area. Ukraine says Russian attacks have been repelled. Jaroslav Lukiv reports for BBC News. 

President Biden requested an additional $24 billion from Congress yesterday to help Ukraine. The request is part of a $40 billion spending package that would also pay for disaster relief and border enforcement. It is the first time Biden requested that lawmakers send more arms to Ukraine since Republicans took over the House in January. The request will test whether Ukraine still enjoys bipartisan support. Peter Baker and Luke Broadwater report for the New York Times. 

Ukrainian sea drones, which are small, inexpensive, and challenging to defend against, have altered the military balance of power in the Black Sea in recent months, even though Russia has a more powerful navy. The sea drones have targeted Russian symbols of power in the region, including the headquarters of Russia’s fleet in occupied Crimea and a bridge connecting the peninsula to Russia. Jared Malsin reports for the Wall Street Journal. 

Due to a series of delays, the Ukrainian pilots training to use F-16 fighter jets will not be ready before next summer, senior Ukrainian government and military officials said. Isabelle Khurshudyan, Emily Rauhala, and Missy Ryan report for the Washington Post. 

Russia is replicating Iranian-made attack drones in a bid to overcome sanctions imposed to halt the country’s weapons production, according to a report by Conflict Armament Research released yesterday.

Alarm grows among U.S. officials over Ukraine’s counter-offensive as progress is deemed “highly unlikely,” especially with winter approaching. “There is a frustration that they have not used more of the combat power that they have,” one U.S. official said. The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft said that Ukrainian forces are outmanned and outgunned and need a “Plan B,” such as scaling back to focus on defense. Brad Dress reports for The Hill. "

lousubcap

Update on Ukraine and grain movements:

"Ukraine announced temporary corridors for commercial vessels to depart Black Sea ports despite ongoing threats from Russia.

The routes will be used to allow civilian vessels to leave Ukrainian ports Chernomorks, Odesa and Southern, Ukraine’s navy announced via Facebook. Merchant ships that can confirm their readiness to sail will be allowed on the routes.

The last commercial ship to leave a Ukrainian port with grain was on July 16, the Ukrainian Naval Forces said in the Facebook post, the day before Russia withdrew from the United Nations-Turkey brokered grain deal.

Russia previously said that any ships going to Ukraine would be treated as potentially carrying military cargo.

Turkey continues to push for a revival of the grain deal, Al-Monitor reported. Under the grain deal, vessels exported 32,856,036 tonnes of foodstuffs from Ukraine."

lousubcap

Monday Russia-Ukraine update:

"At least seven people have been killed, including a 23-day-old baby, and 13 injured after Russian strikes hit the Kherson region of southern Ukraine yesterday morning. Kherson has been continuously shelled since November, when Russian forces retreated from Kherson across the Dnipro River. Cassandra Vinograd reports for the New York Times. 

A Russian warship fired warning shots at a Ukraine-bound cargo vessel in the Black Sea yesterday, drawing condemnation from Ukrainian officials, with one calling it a “clear violation of international law.” The shots were fired after the cargo vessel failed to respond to a call for inspection by Russian forces. Lyric Li reports for the Washington Post. 

Two Ukrainian missiles targeted the Kerch bridge linking Russia to the occupied Crimean peninsula, Russia’s defense ministry said. The missiles were shot down, causing no damage. Antoinette Radford and Graeme Baker report for BBC News. 

Ukrainian forces are making “tactically significant” advances along two fronts, forcing Russia to divert forces from other parts of the front line. The gains of no more than 10 to 12 miles will weaken the Russian defenses, creating “opportunities for any Ukrainian breakthrough to be potentially decisive,” the Institute for the Study of War said. Marc Santora reports for the New York Times. 

There is a realistic possibility that Russia no longer funds the paramilitary organization Wagner Group, the U.K.’s defense ministry said yesterday." 

lousubcap

More Monday Russia-Ukraine info:

"Developing: On the economic front, Russia's currency is rapidly declining to depths not seen since the weeks immediately after its full-scale Ukraine invasion nearly a year and a half ago. This means the costs of Russia's war are rising and it's getting harder to shield their citizens from those costs, which help send inflation soaring, the Wall Street Journal reports. 

Much of this is attributed to soaring government spending on the war (weapons and ammunition, e.g.) along with the gradual effect of sanctions on Russia's tech sector in particular; the costs of those sanctions are believed to accumulate over the long term. 

"The Russian economy is not sustainable in the long term," one former Russian bank official told the Journal two weeks ago. "It all reminds of the Soviet times and we know how the Soviet economy went." 

Speaking of Soviet times, amid a growing nationwide labor shortage, "in the industrial region of Sverdlovsk, a local tank factory recently has had to contract hundreds of inmates from local prisons to try to meet its targets," the New York Times reported in a similar economic dispatch published in late July. 

One tough reality for Ukraine and its allies: "Russia's sheer size makes it impossible to cut it off from the world economy," Nicholas Mulder, a professor of history at Cornell University, said. That's in part because "It remains a major source of raw materials for advanced economies, while for the developing world it is a crucial supplier of food and fertilizer."

However, "So far this year, the ruble has lost almost 30% of its value against the dollar," the Journal reported Monday. "Only a handful of currencies including the Turkish lira, Nigerian naira and Argentine peso are having a worse year." More behind the paywall, here. Or read nonpaywalled coverage via CNN, Reuters, or the Associated Press."

lousubcap

Tuesday Russia-Ukraine update:

"Two Russians accused of spreading propaganda for the paramilitary organization Wagner group in Poland have been arrested and charged with spying, Interior Minister Mariusz Kaminski said yesterday. The two individuals gave out roughly 300 leaflets in Krakow and Warsaw. “In total, they were to receive up to 500,000 roubles ($4,930) for the commissioned tasks,” the Interior Minister said. Reuters reports. 

Russia’s central bank will hold an extraordinary meeting today to discuss interest rates after the rouble fell to its weakest point in over 16 months. The currency slid past the psychologically important level of 100 roubles to the dollar yesterday. Pjotr Sauer reports for the Guardian.

Ukraine downed three waves of Russian missiles and drones targeting Odesa, the army said. Fifteen drones and eight Kalibr-type sea-based missiles were involved in the attack. Falling debris from the destroyed weapons damaged a student dormitory and a supermarket in Odesa’s city centre, leaving three workers wounded.

Russia said its air defence systems shot down unmanned aerial vehicles over its Belgorod region, the TASS news agency reports. It said there were no casualties or damage.

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said Russian weapons were proving their effectiveness in the war against Ukraine and that “much-hyped” Western arms had shown themselves to be “far from perfect”.

Ukraine reported fierce fighting along its entire front line and claimed “some success” in pushing back Moscow’s troops in the southeast of the country. Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar said Ukrainian troops had pushed forward around the village of Staromaiorske, about 97km (60 miles) southwest of Russian-held Donetsk, and were pressing on two fronts in the south."

lousubcap

Wednesday Russia-Ukraine update:

"Former Ukrainian prisoners of war detained in south-western Russia say they were subjected to torture. Dozens of testimonies describe a consistent pattern of extreme violence and ill-treatment at the Pre-Trial Detention Facility Number Two in Taganrog. Hugo Bachega reports for BBC News. 

As Russia strikes Ukrainian grain facilities and boards ships bound for Ukraine in the Black Sea, a Romanian route for cargo vessels provides an alternative. The Sulina Channel, a 40-mile stretch of water leading from the Black Sea to Romanian, Ukrainian, and Moldovan ports in the Danube delta, is covered by NATO’s security umbrella. Andrew Higgins reports for the New York Times. 

Russia’s Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu yesterday said that Ukraine’s ability to fight had been “almost exhausted” and that the war exposed vulnerabilities in Western weapons systems. “We have data on … the destruction of German tanks, American armored vehicles, British missiles, and other weapons systems,” Shoigu added. “We are ready to share our assessments … with our partners.” Guy Faulconbridge reports for Reuters.

Ukrainian forces retook the village of Urozhaine from Russia in the southeast, the Ukrainian deputy defense minister, Hanna Maliar, said today. Urozhaine is part of a cluster of small rural settlements that Ukraine has liberated since June. “Our defenders are entrenched on the outskirts,” Hanna Maliar said. Reuters reports. 

The Ukrainian security service, SBU, has, for the first time, claimed responsibility for attacks on the bridge connecting Russia to annexed Crimea using experimental drone boats. The SBU warned that more attacks would follow. Nick Paton Walsh, Victoria Butenko, and Florence Davey-Attlee report for CNN. "

lousubcap

Thursday Russia-Ukraine update:

"Russia’s General Sergei Surovikin, an ally of Yevgeny Prigozhin, has reportedly been removed from his leadership role in the war on Ukraine and is under house arrest. Surovikin, known for his aggressive tactics, has not been seen in public since the failed armed action by Prigozhin’s paramilitary organization Wagner group. “There is no official investigation, but Surovikin spent a long time in limbo answering uncomfortable questions,” a blog considered close to Russia’s security forces reported over the weekend. Elisa Braun and Zoya Sheftalovich report for POLITICO. 

Russia’s armed raid on a vessel off Turkey’s coast that was bound for Ukraine on Sunday will likely test Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan’s resolve to maintain good relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Erdogan has invited Putin to Turkey to discuss the revival of the U.N.-backed Black Sea grain deal. Turkey, NATO’s second-largest military, has not publicly commented on the incident. Jonathan Spicer and Ece Toksabay report for Reuters. 

The first vessel carrying Ukrainian agricultural goods set sail from Odesa yesterday, despite Russian threats to forcibly stop ships in the Black Sea. Last week, Ukraine’s navy announced that “temporary corridors” had been established for “merchant vessels going to and from Ukrainian ports.” Yesterday, the U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine said that the United States sent 50 railroad wagons to Ukraine “to help move grain to Danube ports, where it will be sent to global markets.” David L. Stern reports for the Washington Post. "

lousubcap

More Russia-Ukraine:

• Ukraine said Russia carried out a series of drone attacks on grain silos and warehouses at a Danube River port near the border with Romania.
• Kyiv said its forces liberated the settlement of Urozhaine in the southeast, but top general Oleksandr Syrskyi warned the situation around Kupiansk on the northeastern front was deteriorating amid Russian counterattacks.
• Video obtained by Al Jazeera suggests a controversial unit of Chechen troops has been policing the town of Enerhodar near the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
• Russia’s Ministry of Defence said it shot down three Ukrainian drones southwest of Moscow and one over Crimea.
• Russia’s state-owned TASS news agency reported that the FSB security service, with the defence ministry, thwarted a Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance group in the Bryansk region.

And this on Russian drones:

"We now have what seems to be a deeper understanding of Russia's drone ambitions thanks to a trove of documents obtained by the Washington Post. The docs purportedly originate from a worker inside Russia's expanding drone production facilities in Russia's Alabuga Special Economic Zone, located east of Moscow in the Republic of Tatarstan. "The individual decided to expose details of the effort in the hope that international attention might lead to additional sanctions, potentially disrupting production and bringing the war to an end more quickly," the Post reports. 

Included in the documents: "factory-floor blueprints, technical schematics, personnel records, memorandums provided to Iranian counterparts," according to the Post. But you'll also find growing unease among the younger workers at Alabuga, and some classic elements of Soviet-era industrialization and its discontents, including poor craftsmanship and inefficiencies swept under the rug. Read the full report from the Post, here. "

JohnInCarolina

http://twitter.com/Will_Bunch/status/1692217666520428747?s=20

lousubcap

From Tom Nichols of The Atlantic-  Worth a read-

An Invitation to Chaos

You may have heard the news recently that President Joe Biden is old. This has been a rumor whispered in the hallways of power for some time now, but apparently it’s true. Some Democrats, including Representative Dean Phillips of Minnesota, think this means Biden should step aside. “We’re at grave risk of another Trump presidency,” Phillips said recently. “I’m doing this to prevent a return of Donald Trump to the White House.”

And by “this,” Phillips means going public with his concerns, and even possibly running against Biden—which isn’t much of a threat, given that Phillips is not exactly a first-tier challenger. But there is no denying that he is expressing out loud what some Democrats have worried about privately.

These concerns are somewhat puzzling, because Biden has so far handled the presidency with plenty of energy. At the least, to judge by performance, he seems far less deserving of a challenger for the nomination than, say, Jimmy Carter in 1980, who was sinking in the quicksand of crises both abroad and at home. The Soviets back then were running roughshod over Carter; Biden has rallied NATO against the Russians. Stagflation—a word no one uses anymore—was a fact of life under Carter; Biden has presided over a “soft landing” from the economic damage of the pandemic, with both inflation and unemployment mostly under control (at least for now), which only a year ago seemed impossible.

Nevertheless, Phillips is right that Biden’s poll numbers are worrisome at the moment. And he’s also right that a health scare during the primaries or the general election could be disastrous. But as a man of 62, I can say that health scares can happen to almost anyone beyond a certain age. Trump, let us recall, is 77. He apparently subsists mostly on junk food and torched steaks, and seems to have emotional issues that make Biden’s occasional stumbles seem fairly benign by comparison.

Regardless of age (or diet), who runs in each party will be decided by Republican and Democratic voters. For those of us concerned about American democracy itself, however, the only question in all of this is whether Biden stepping aside hurts or helps Trump’s chances of regaining power.

I am convinced—especially as a former Republican—that the political stability of the United States (and the future of a healthy Republican Party) would be better served if any Republican beats Trump in the GOP primaries. Some of the Republicans are more committed to American democracy than others, but any of them gaining the nomination would mean a return to a more or less normal presidential election, something America sorely needs to see again. (I have had a friendly disagreement with MSNBC’s Katie Phang on this issue; she thinks Florida Governor Ron DeSantis would be worse than Trump, but I think she’s overly influenced by living in Florida.)

At this point, however, Trump seems virtually assured of the GOP nomination. We might lament that a man facing nearly eight dozen criminal charges will become the standard-bearer of one of America’s two major parties, but it’s likely going to happen. Facing this all but certain reality, what would happen if Biden took the advice to preserve his legacyand stepped aside? Could Democrats coalesce around a candidate whose job would be, first and foremost, to stop Donald Trump?

The main problem with all this Democratic wishcasting is that it ignores the nature of the Democratic Party itself. Perhaps in an earlier time, ward bosses and donors would gather in a smoke-filled room, lubricate the proceedings with some Irish whiskey, yell and threaten one another, and then emerge with the name of a senator or governor to whom all of them would pledge their support (and money).

Good luck with that these days. Even the usually more disciplined Republicans can’t pull off something like that right now: If Donald Trump vanished tomorrow, no one would step aside. I would pay for a balcony seat at a meeting of current GOP candidates to decide who should run in Trump’s place, just to see someone like Vivek Ramaswamy or Francis Suarez claim the mantle of Great Uniter and try to push DeSantis or Mike Pence out of the way.

In any case, an open Democratic primary would spark similar bedlam. For one thing, the obvious choice to succeed Biden on the ticket would be Vice President Kamala Harris, whose approval numbers are worse than Biden’sand rank among the worst for vice presidents. Some of Harris’s supporters might claim that this is the result of racism and misogyny, but in the immediate circumstances, it doesn’t matter: If Biden has to get off the ticket because of soft numbers, it doesn’t make much sense to replace him with someone whose numbers are even softer.

More to the point, if unhappy Democrats want a real primary, then they cannot simply anoint Harris. A modern American primary is a scrum for votes and money and endorsements, and other candidates will have every right to step forward and make the case for themselves. That’s a normal (if sometimes nasty) process, but in a year when a sociopath who instigated a violent insurrection is promising that his main platform is to exact vengeance on his enemies, a Democratic Party brawl doesn’t make much sense.

An irony in the worries about Biden is how much they ignore Trump’s own unpopularity: A poll released this week found that nearly two-thirds of Americans wouldn’t support Trump in 2024. But if the Democrats—essentially accepting the GOP talking point that Biden needs to go—plunge into a raucous primary, the media would turn it all into a spectacle, and the Republicans would be lighting candles over such a miraculous gift. A more disciplined party might be able to mitigate that kind of damage, but today’s Democrats are not that party.

It is possible that Biden—or Trump—may yet have a health scare before 2024. So could many of us. But if the goal of the prodemocracy forces in the next election is to prevent Trump’s return to the White House, “Joe Biden is old” is not a good enough reason to invite such chaos.