OT subject but worth a main-stream read- OT News Feeds...

lousubcap

and this regarding 155 MM ammo to Ukraine:

US paying contractor to quietly supply Bulgarian 155mm shells to Ukraine

A $402 million contract suggests the former Soviet-bloc country is now producing NATO-standard artillery rounds.

https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2023/07/us-paying-contractor-quietly-supply-bulgarian-155mm-shells-ukraine/388480/

HeavyG

lousubcap

Monday Russia-Ukraine update:

"The paramilitary organization Wagner group chief Yevgeniy Prigozhin rejected an offer to his fighters to serve in Russia’s army, President Vladimir Putin said. The talks were held days after Wagner’s aborted armed action on Jun. 23-24. Under the deal, the mercenaries could join the regular Russian army or head to Belarus. Jaroslav Lukiv reports for BBC News. 

Paramilitary organization Wagner group fighters have now arrived in Belarus, Ukraine’s border guard service has confirmed. One unconfirmed report said 60 Wagner vehicles entered Belarus on Saturday. On Friday, Belarus’ defense ministry said Wagner troops were now acting as military instructors for the country’s territorial defense forces. Jaroslav Lukiv reports for BBC News. 

President Vladimir Putin said Russia had a “sufficient stockpile” of cluster bombs and reserved the right to use them if Ukraine deployed such munitions against Russian forces. Putin claimed he regarded the use of cluster munitions as a crime and that Russia had so far not needed to use them, despite having suffered ammunition shortages. Human Rights Watch says both Moscow and Kyiv have used cluster munitions. Reuters reports. 

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan yesterday defended the Biden administration’s decision to send cluster munitions to Ukraine. “Our moral authority has not derived from being a signatory to the Convention Against Cluster Munitions,” Sullivan said, referring to the international ban signed by most NATO members. Summer Concepcion reports for NBC News. 

The Ukrainian counter-offensive has slowed and even stalled in places as the Ukrainian military changed tactics to preserve hardware and troop numbers. In the first two weeks of Ukraine’s counter-offensive, about 20 percent of its deployed hardware was destroyed or damaged. That figure has dropped to about 10 percent. Russia had many months to prepare for the counter-offensive, placing mines and fortifying positions. Lara Jakes, Andrew E. Kramer, and Eric Schmitt report for the New York Times.

Ukrainian officials said fighting had “intensified” on the eastern front, with Russian forces “actively attacking in the Kupiansk sector in Kharkiv” for two consecutive days. “We are on the defensive,” Ukraine’s Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar wrote on the Telegram messaging app. “There are fierce battles. The positions of both sides change dynamically several times a day.”

Maliar also said the two armies were pummelling one another around the ruined eastern city of Bakhmut, but that Ukrainian forces were “gradually moving forward” along its southern flank.

Separately, the Ukrainian military indicated it had taken control of part of a southeastern village in the Donetsk region, near a string of small settlements Ukraine recaptured in June. “The enemy made an unsuccessful attempt to regain lost positions in the northern part of Staromayorske,” the general staff of Ukraine’s armed forces said in an update marking the first official acknowledgement of progress at the village."

HeavyG

https://twitter.com/b5JCWmUc47UWCan/status/1680880559281651715?s=20

This made me chuckle. Clever parody.

lousubcap

While on the Kersh bridge:

"Russia's bridge to occupied Ukrainian Crimea was attacked overnight, triggering traffic jams that threatened to slow Moscow's efforts to resupply its military in the 17th month of Vladimir Putin's Ukraine invasion. 

Location: The Kersh Bridge. The Associated Press calls the $3.6 billion bridge the longest in Europe and a "conspicuous symbol" of Russia's illegal annexation of the Crimean peninsula when Putin initially invaded Ukraine with a covert force in 2014. 

Until it's repaired, "Russia will only have one ground supply line—the [coastal] highway on the Sea of Azov—to sustain (or evacuate) its tens of thousands of troops in occupied Kherson and Crimea if [Ukraine] manages to degrade/destroy the bridge," said George Barros of the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War, writing Sunday evening on social media. 

Ukrainian officials have not officially confirmed their involvement. Ukrainian Security Service spokesperson Artem Degtyarenko said in a statement Monday, "We are watching with interest as one of the symbols of Putin's regime once again failed to withstand the military load." 

Another Kyiv official was similarly coy in response. "The peninsula is used by the Russians as a large logistical hub for moving forces and assets deep into the territory of Ukraine," Andriy Yusov, a spokesperson for Ukraine's military intelligence department, said Monday. "Of course, any logistical problems are additional complications for the occupiers," he added. "

lousubcap

Vlad the Impaler keeps on rolling:

"Russia has withdrawn from a United Nations-brokered deal to export grain from Ukraine, which could raise food prices around the world. "The suspension of the deal sent wheat prices up about 3% in Chicago trading, to $6.81 a bushel," AP reported Monday from London. Presently, though, "Analysts don't expect more than a temporary bump to food commodity prices because places like Russia and Brazil have ratcheted up wheat and corn exports, but food insecurity worldwide is growing."

Edit to add the below re: mines in Ukraine-

"Tactical update: An incredible variety and density of mines is dramatically slowing Ukraine's attempts to reclaim occupied territory, several news outlets reported over the weekend. The dynamics have led Ukraine to change its approach almost entirely—with no more Leeroy Jenkins-style rushes straight at Russian bases, according to the New York Times, reporting Saturday from southern Ukraine. Consider the following: 

• At least 22 of the original Bradley Fighting Vehicles that Washington sent to Ukraine have been lost, which is nearly one-third of the BFVs from the U.S.;
• Fifteen Bradleys were destroyed in a single village in Zaporizhzhia oblast on June 8 and 9 when Russian helicopters attacked as they were bogged down in a minefield; 
• Ukraine's 33rd Mechanized Brigade lost 30 percent of the Leopard tanks it was given by Germany; all but two were destroyed in their first week of use;
• Ukraine has only advanced 5 miles out of 55 required to reach the Sea of Azov, which would theoretically allow Ukraine to sever the land bridge to Crimea;
• "It is even slower near Orikhiv in the Zaporizhzhia region," the Times reports, "where the bulk of Bradleys and Leopards have been sent to an area of open fields with little cover. There, Ukraine's army has advanced only about a mile."
• Those circumstances (especially the helicopter/minefield episode) point to the need for F-16s or some sort of improved air supremacy situation as soon as possible.

"I couldn't imagine something like this," one Ukrainian private told the Times, reporting separately on the same topic this weekend. "I thought mines would be lain in lines. But whole fields are filled with them, everywhere."

You may wonder: Why isn't Ukraine using more M58 Mine Clearing Line Charges, like the U.S. used to clear IED-laden stretches of road/fields in Iraq/Afghanistan? Turns out, Ukraine has been using them since at least November (the Pentagon announced mine-clearing equipment headed to Ukraine back in September). It's just that the U.S. has not yet shared nearly enough for the 55-mile task ahead, all the way to the edge of Crimea. "

lousubcap

Tuesday Russia-Ukraine update:

"Russia carried out missile and drone strikes on southern and eastern Ukraine last night, causing damage to infrastructure in the Black Sea port of Odesa, Ukrainian officials said. Ukraine’s air force said all six missiles, and 31 out of 36 drones, were shot down. Olga Voitovych and Duarte Mendonca report for CNN. 

The Black Sea grain deal, allowing Ukraine to export grain safely, has officially expired after Russia pulled out of the agreement. Russia’s decision to pull out has been condemned by world leaders, who say it will affect some of the planet’s poorest people. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said he believed that President Vladimir Putin “wants to continue the agreement” and that they would discuss the renewal of the deal when they meet next month. Antoinette Radford and Kathryn Armstrong report for BBC News. 

Russia repulsed a Ukrainian drone attack on Crimea this morning, the Russian defense ministry said. The attempted strike comes a day after an attack on a Crimean bridge. Reuters reports. "

lousubcap

More on Ukraine today:

"The Pentagon-led Ukrainian Defense Contact Group meets virtually this morning, followed by a press conference at the Pentagon with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Joint Chiefs Chairman Army Gen. Mark Milley. 

Today is the 14th time the group has convened. The last meeting took place in Belgium, and involved discussions on how to train Ukrainian pilots on F-16s after training conducted by Dutch and Danish troops sometime in the future. 

"Ukraine's fight for freedom is a marathon, not a sprint," Austin said Tuesday in his opening remarks. "So this Contact Group has come together again to stand up for some crucial shared principles—sovereignty, human rights, freedom, and a refusal to live in a world where big countries can just invade their peaceful neighbors and redraw borders by force," he added. 

"Ladies and gentlemen, Ukraine is fighting for its life," Austin continued. "This is a profoundly important moment in the history of this war and of this century, and the United States will stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes," he said. 

Developing: The U.S. will send another $1.3 billion in weapons to Ukraine, including VAMPIRE counter-air defense systems, Switchblade and Phoenix Ghost drones, and counter-drone systems made by Australia's DroneShield Ltd., according to Reuters, reporting Tuesday morning.  "

Edit to add the following:

"The latest from the battlefield: "By and large this is an infantryman's fight," which means its largely focused on the squad, platoon and company level while being "supported by artillery along most of the frontline," said defense analyst Franz-Stefan Gady after a recent trip to Ukraine with several other academics. 

However, Ukraine doesn't have nearly enough de-mining equipment, air defenses, or anti-tank weapons, Gady said. In the meantime, Ukraine's military has "switched to a strategy of attrition relying on sequential fires rather than maneuver," he said. "This is the reason why cluster munitions are critical to extend current fire rates into the fall: weakening Russian defenses to a degree that enables maneuver."

But perhaps most urgently, Ukraine still can't efficiently coordinate the many different units needed to collaborate simultaneously for what's known as combined arms warfare, said Gady. "Lack of a comprehensive combined arms approach at scale makes Ukrainian forces more vulnerable to Russian ATGMs, artillery etc. while advancing. So it's not just about equipment." 

"There's simply no systematic pulling apart of the Russian defensive system that I could observe," he admitted, and added that he doesn't anticipate those conditions will change anytime soon. "Absent a sudden collapse of Russian defenses, I suspect this will remain a bloody attritional fight with reserve units being fed in incrementally in the coming weeks and months," said Gady. "

lousubcap

Wednesday Russia-Ukraine update:

"Moscow has increasingly relied upon the former Soviet states of Central Asia to fill a technology supply gap following Western sanctions. Some of these states are historically and financially bound to Russia but trade extensively with Europe and China. The Biden administration is particularly concerned about Kyrgyzstan, home to multiple businesses that have become a waypoint for Western and Asian goods Russia cannot legally obtain elsewhere, including drone technology with military applications. Joby Warrick reports for the Washington Post. 

Russian forces launched over 60 airstrikes against Ukraine last night, focusing mainly on the southern Odesa region for a second night, the Ukrainian Air Force said today. Olga Voitovych reports for CNN. 

While Ukraine’s counter-offensive against Russia is “far from a failure,” the fight ahead “is going to be long. It’s going to be hard. It’s going to be bloody,” General Mark Milley, chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said. Milley said that while war games had predicted certain levels of Ukrainian advances, conflict on paper differed from reality. Idrees Ali and Phil Stewart report for Reuters.

The Russian military’s command structure is “confusing at best” after last month’s failed rebellion led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, chief of the Wagner mercenary group, a top U.S. general said on Tuesday.

Thousands of Prigozhin’s soldiers have been deeply involved in the Ukraine conflict. But those troops are now handing over their weapons to the Russian military, in an apparent end to their operations in Ukraine.

The failed mutiny that ended with Prigozhin’s exile has thrown Russia’s military command structure into disarray, Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. Mark Milley told reporters at the Pentagon.

“The command-and-control apparatus at the strategic level is certainly confusing at best and probably challenging,” Milley said.

The fallout from the rebellion, in addition to logistics problems, “significant” officer casualties and poor training, have contributed to eroding morale among Russian forces, Milley said.

Russian troops have had several months to boost their defenses in Ukraine, including laying complex minefields, installing barbed wire and digging trenches, Milley said. But Ukraine is working through the front lines “slowly and deliberately.”

Kyiv has so far struggled to retake significant territory during the much-anticipated counteroffensive, but Milley explained that Ukrainian forces are “preserving their combat power” and have not sent in their best soldiers.

“This is going to be long, it’s going to be hard, it’s going to be bloody,” Milley predicted. But “it is far from a failure, in my view.”

lousubcap

More on Russia-Ukraine today-

"Russia again attacks Ukraine's food supply. For the second day in a row, a barrage of Russian missiles targeted a key Ukrainian port that's been used to export grain to countries around the world. The latest attack on the southern city of Odesa destroyed an estimated 60,000 tons of grain in an early morning wave that began around 1 a.m. and featured cruise missiles, Kh-22 anti-ship missiles, and Iranian-made exploding drones, according to the Ukrainian military. "Grains terminals were damaged as well as an industrial facility, warehouses, shopping malls, residential and administrative buildings and cars," according to Reuters. 

Russia's Tuesday and Wednesday attacks on Odesa follow Moscow's decision to pull out of a key UN- and Türkiye-brokered agreement known as the Black Sea Grain Initiative,which allowed Ukrainian grains to flow safely to market despite the Russian navy's presence in the region. Under the deal, Ukraine maintained just three ports for exporting grain: Odesa, Chornomorsk, Yuzhny/Pivdennyi.

Ukrainian officials say they're working with Romania to establish a second corridor to move grain out of Ukraine and to ports abroad, especially "African countries that are most critically dependent on the import of agricultural food," President Volodymir Zelenskyy said Wednesday. "Together, we must do everything possible to ensure that the global food market remains stable, despite Russia's apparent efforts to provoke new crises and use hunger and destabilization as weapons," he added.

Worth noting: Russia sent 63 missiles and drones at Ukraine overnight; just 37 of those were shot down by Ukrainian air defense forces. That's partly why Zelenskyy is today pleading with allies to send more SAMP/T and Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine. "If we had additional systems, they would protect the infrastructure of Odesa, and not just the port," he told reporters Wednesday in Kyiv.

Russian forces, meanwhile, are using an occupied Ukrainian port to export confiscated grain to its customers abroad, Ukraine's military said Wednesday. That includes the port in Skadovsk, which is in Kherson. Russia is believed to have stolen an estimated 4 million tons of Ukrainian grain as of May, according to Ukrainian officials. "

nolaegghead

The Ruskies are DICKS.

no wonder pHucker Carlson has such an affinity towards them…

lousubcap

Thursday Russia-Ukraine update:

Yevgeny Prigozhin, chief of the paramilitary organization Wagner group, has said Wagner will, for now, not fight in Ukraine and repeated his criticism that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has failed, in what appeared to be the first video of him since the armed action. In the video, Prigozhin appears to be welcoming Wagner troops to Belarus. Mary Ilyushina reports for the Washington Post. 

Paramilitary organization Wagner group troops will help train Belarusian special forces during exercises at a military range near the border with Poland, the Belarusian defense ministry said today. Reuters reports. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin is under pressure as “cracks” have formed in his power structure following the failed armed action last month, senior U.K. officials said this week. Richard Moore, head of MI6, said, “[Putin] really didn’t fight back against Prigozhin. He cut a deal to save his skin using the good offices of the leader of Belarus.” These comments come after what is seen as a successful NATO summit where the Group of Seven promised billions in long-term security assistance to Ukraine. Alexander Ward reports for POLITICO.

Russian President Vladimir Putin will not attend the B.R.I.C.S. summit in South Africa next month. The development comes after South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said any attempt to arrest Putin would be a declaration of war against Russia. If Putin had left Russia, he would have been subject to an International Criminal Court (I.C.C.) arrest warrant. South Africa is an I.C.C. signatory. Nomsa Maseko and Kathryn Armstrong report for BBC News.

As Moscow reimposed its blockade of ships carrying food from Ukraine, the Russian military struck the port city of Odesa, targeting Ukraine’s ability to export grain, officials said. These attacks risk sharply raising global wheat prices. In a statement yesterday, Russia’s defense ministry warned that “all vessels sailing in the waters of the Black Sea to Ukrainian ports will be regarded as potential carriers of military cargo.” Adding, “the countries of such vessels will be considered to be involved in the Ukrainian conflict on the side of the Kiev regime.” Meredith Lee Hill reports for POLITICO.

lousubcap

And now the below from Russia-

Russia Lays Mines in Black Sea to Block Ukrainian Ports, NSC Says

Article linked here:

https://news.usni.org/2023/07/19/russia-says-all-ships-in-the-black-sea-heading-to-ukraine-are-potential-carriers-of-military-cargo?utm_source=USNI+News&utm_campaign=d828dcd29e-USNI_NEWS_DAILY&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_0dd4a1450b-d828dcd29e-230648085&mc_cid=d828dcd29e&mc_eid=da66ed6ca4

lousubcap

Some insights into the Russia/post Soviet thoughts-

from Fareed Zakaria-

"What Lies Beneath Putin

It may be true, as former US Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul wrote in the Journal of Democracy in February, that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s political “luck ran out” in 2022 when he launched an ill-considered invasion of Ukraine. The more recent Wagner rebellion would seem to bolster McFaul’s case.    But the problem isn’t just Putin, historian and analyst of Russian politics Jade McGlynn argues at Persuasion. As McGlynn details in her new book “Russia’s War,” nationalistic sentiments run deeper in Russian society, thanks to Kremlin propaganda and Russia’s ingrained post-Soviet political culture. Myths of Soviet victimization at the hands of the US, a sense of “humiliation” in the chaotic and predatory 1990s, and disbelief in Ukraine as a distinct nation all swirl in Russian public sentiment, McGlynn writes.      Putin “is, in many ways, a product of Russian mythmaking as much as he is the instigator of it,” McGlynn writes for Persuasion. “For instance, a Levada Center poll in 2017 found that 58% of surveyed Russians ‘regretted the collapse’ of the Soviet Union while only 26% did not. … These emotions and preferences will likely outlive Putin. Many variations of these war-fuelling myths can be found even among those Russians who opposed the war or don’t support it. Such Russocentric stances draw on a widespread insistence of the primacy of Russian victimhood. … If we only look at the Kremlin’s lies, and not why people want to believe them, we will fail to identify the sources of propaganda’s emotive power—and of other, future, types of political messaging, in Russia and beyond. At the very least, we need to acknowledge the demand, without pandering to it, because the need for comforting stories won’t simply cease to exist, even when Putin does.” Edit-You have got to know the enemy and the way they think.  Get inside their decision making caability and you win, every time.

lousubcap

Friday Russia-Ukraine update:

"Russian President Vladimir Putin may still seek retribution against Yevgeny Prighozin, the director of the CIA, William Burns, said. Putin is likely to be trying to buy time as he works out how best to deal with the leader of the paramilitary organization Wagner group, Burns added. Gordon Corera reports for BBC News.

The White House has warned that the Kremlin mined sea routes in the Black Sea and might be planning a false-flag attack on commercial transport ships. The warning comes just after Russia imposed a blockade in the Black Sea and threatened it might view commercial ships bound for Ukraine as military targets. Ukraine yesterday made the same threat to commercial ships bound for territory occupied by Russia. Michael D. Shear, Neil MacFarquhar, and James C. McKinley Jr. report for the New York Times. 

Ukraine has begun firing U.S.-provided cluster munitions against Russian forces in southeastern Ukraine. It is hoped that the munitions can eliminate well-fortified Russian positions that have slowed Ukraine’s counter-offensive. John Hudson and Isabelle Khurshudyan report for the Washington Post. 

The International Atomic Energy Agency (I.A.E.A.) has still not been granted access to inspect the rooftops of the Russian-held Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine, the U.N. nuclear watchdog said yesterday. The I.A.E.A. seeks access to the rooftops to investigate competing accusations that Russia or Ukraine are planning an attack on the facility. Francois Murphy reports for Reuters. "

lousubcap

Monday Russia-Ukraine update:

"The Ukrainian port city of Odesa was struck by another Russian drone attack last night. Such attacks have continued since Russia pulled out of a U.N.-backed grain export deal. Kelly Kasulis Cho reports for the Washington Post. 

It is an “absolute priority” for Ukraine to restore the Black Sea corridor that allows ships to carry Ukrainian grain to the world, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan over the phone on Friday. Andrew Jeong, Ellen Francis, Tamia Fowlkes, and Andrea Salcedo report for the Washington Post. 

Russia’s Federal Security Service (F.S.B.) today said that it had found traces of explosives on a ship traveling from Turkey to the Russian port of Rostov-on-Don to pick up grain. The F.S.B. said the ship had been to the Ukrainian port of Kiliia in May and may have been used to deliver explosives to Ukraine. Reuters reports.

The Ukrainian military has retaken about 50% of the territory seized by Russia, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said yesterday. Rebecca Falconer reports for Axios. 

Ukraine had planned to launch the counter-offensive in Spring “[b]ut we didn’t, because, frankly, we had not enough munitions and armaments,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said yesterday. Because of this delay, Zelenskyy said Russia had the “time to mine all our lands and build several lines of defense.” Kelly Garrity reports for POLITICO. 

Ukraine has become the world’s most mined country. About 30 percent of Ukraine, more than 67,000 square miles, will require clearance operations, according to a recent report by GLOBSEC. The de-mining effort may take decades to complete. Eve Sampson and Samuel Granados report for the Washington Post. "

lousubcap

Tuesday Russia-Ukraine update:

"Despite being forewarned of the paramilitary organization Wagner group armed action days in advance, Russian President Vladimir Putin appeared “paralyzed,” leading to “absolute dismay and confusion,” one European security official said. Dmitry Peskov, a Kremlin spokesperson, said these intelligence assessments were “nonsense.” Catherine Belton, Shane Harris, and Greg Miller report for the Washington Post. 

China is delivering enough non-lethal but militarily useful equipment to Russia to impact the war. The amount of Chinese-made body armor and other protective gear sent to Russia could equip many men mobilized since the full-scale invasion. Delivering “dual-use” technology with both civilian and military uses, such as drones and thermal optics, provides Western authorities with enough deniability to avoid confronting an economic power like China. Sarah Anne Aarup, Sergey Panov, and Douglas Busvine report for POLITICO. 

Russia yesterday, for the first time, attacked a port on the Danube River in Ukraine, close to the Romanian border, destroying a grain hangar. The attack on Ukraine’s alternative grain export routes follows Russian strikes on the port of Odesa after pulling out of the Black Sea grain deal. The attack near the Romanian border is the closest Russia has come to hitting NATO territory since the full-scale invasion. Matthew Mpoke Bigg, Andrew Higgins, Andrés R. Martínez, Haley Willis, and Tiffany May report for New York Times. 

Experts from the International Atomic Energy Agency (I.A.E.A.) discovered mines at the Russia-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, agency chief Rafael Grossi said yesterday. The “I.A.E.A. team saw some mines located in a buffer zone between the site’s internal and external perimeter barriers,” Grossi said, noting that the mines were “situated in a restricted area that operating plant personnel cannot access and were facing away from the site.” Mariya Knight, Olga Voitovych, and Josh Pennington report for CNN. 

Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence confirmed that it had carried out a drone attack on Moscow yesterday. The Kremlin said all the drones targeting the Russian capital had been neutralized. CNN reports. 

The White House said it does not support Ukraine launching attacks inside Russia. The comments come after two drones from Ukraine damaged buildings in Moscow yesterday. Jeff Mason and Kanishka Singh report for Reuters. "

lousubcap

More on Russia-Ukraine Tuesday:

"The Pentagon is sending another $400 million in weapons to Ukraine, U.S. officials told the Associated Press on Monday. Much-needed howitzer artillery rounds are included in that package. Stinger air defense missiles, anti-tank Javelin rounds, High-Mobility Artillery Rocket System (or HIMARS) munitions, and National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (or NASAMS) rounds are included, too. Hand-held Hornet drones will be coming as well. 

What does Ukraine need the most? Its military officials often list five things when asked, Dmitri Alperovitch said in his latest podcast, which was recorded in Ukraine. And those five things are artillery shells, artillery shells, artillery shells, artillery shells, and more artillery shells. U.S. President Joe Biden said much the same when asked a similar question about two weeks ago at the conclusion of this year's NATO summit in Lithuania.

Here are a few lesser-known top needs for Ukraine's military, according to Andrey Liscovich, former CEO of Uber Works, who now directs nonlethal aid to Ukraine via the Ukraine Defense Fund: 

• Mobility, or trucks just to transport troops to the front, like cargo vans, buses, larger trucks, etc.;
• Portable energy—think generators of all kinds and power stations with big batteries; 
• Communications equipment, including Starlink satellites that allow troops to communicate with their chain of command, as well as portable radios—Motorola commercial radios, e.g.—and portable cellular towers for remote data links;
• Intelligence, counterintelligence, and counter-warfare assets, including drones (the most prominent example), rovers, aerostats, sensors, jammers, and software that ties them together.  

Liscovich spoke with Alperovitch during his recent trip to Ukraine with other U.S. analysts, including Michael Kofman, Franz-Stefan Gady, and Rob Lee. You can hear Alperovitch and Liscovich's full conversation at the former's podcast, Geopolitics Decanted. 

Some in Washington see notable progress. "Ukraine has liberated about two-thirds of the same amount of territory in five weeks that Russian forces captured in over six months," analysts at the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War wrote Monday. 

However, "Ukraine is attempting combined arms operations without air superiority and with limited enablers for maneuvering, such as air defenses—an extraordinarily challenging undertaking. Ukraine's counteroffensive forces additionally had limited time to prepare for a major offensive," ISW said. 

Their advice: Kyiv's allies and partners need to plan for "resourc[ing] successive phases of the Ukrainian counteroffensive," and to do so promptly using aircraft like F-16s and long-range firepower like ATACMS missiles. Indeed, ISW argues, the "Kremlin's limited ability to rapidly pivot after consecutive setbacks is a known vulnerability—one that the West must help Ukraine exploit to secure the most advantageous position possible." Read more from ISW, here. "

lousubcap

Wednesday Russia-Ukraine update:

"The maximum age for Russian military conscription has been raised from 27 to 30, the Russian Parliament voted yesterday, as it seeks to expand the army. Russian President Vladimir Putin promised that conscripts serving for a year would not be sent to Ukraine, yet many are deployed along the border and could be sent to battle. The move indicates a planned “protracted war of attrition,” said Dmitri Kuznets, who analyzes the war for Meduza, an independent Russian news website. Whet Moser and Natasha Frost report for the New York Times. 

The Pentagon announced an additional $400 million in security assistance to Ukraine yesterday. Kelly Kasulis Cho, Jennifer Hassan, and Eve Sampson report for the Washington Post. 

While Russian forces are primarily on the defensive along the 600-mile front in eastern and southern Ukraine, they are on the offensive along a 60-mile front in northeastern Ukraine. Marc Santora and Finbarr O’Reilly report for the New York Times.

The Russian defence ministry said one of its Black Sea Fleet ships destroyed two unmanned Ukrainian naval drones that attempted to attack it overnight. The ministry said its patrol ship had been monitoring shipping in the southwest of the Black Sea at the time and there were no casualties.

The Ukrainian military reported making small advances against Russian forces. Andriy Kovaliov, the spokesperson for the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, said Ukrainian troops had moved forward in the direction of the southeastern village of Staromayorske and had driven Russian units from positions near the village of Andriivka in the east.

Russia launched its sixth air attack on Kyiv but all incoming drones were shot down and early reports indicated no damage or casualties, according to officials. “The air alert lasted for 3 hours … All air targets were detected and destroyed on the approach to Kyiv,” Serhiy Popko, head of Kyiv’s military administration, wrote on Telegram.

The United Kingdom’s defence ministry, in its latest update on the situation in Ukraine, said Russia conducted greater numbers of long-range strikes against Odesa and other areas of southern Ukraine, damaging several grain silos at Chornomorsk Port as well as the historic city centre."

lousubcap

Where the US stands regarding Ukrainian grain shipments:

https://news.usni.org/2023/07/25/no-pentagon-plans-to-send-assets-to-black-sea-over-collapsed-grain-deal?utm_source=USNI+News&utm_campaign=0b5cbfdb9f-USNI_NEWS_DAILY&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_0dd4a1450b-0b5cbfdb9f-230648085&mc_cid=0b5cbfdb9f&mc_eid=da66ed6ca4

lousubcap

Thursday Russia-Ukraine update:

"Russian President Vladimir Putin’s summit with African leaders in St. Petersburg today is expected to draw only half the number of African heads of state or government as the last gathering in 2019, indicating that the war is straining relations. Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea grain deal caused food prices to spike, including in some states that will be represented at the Russia-Africa summit. The Kenyan foreign ministry called Putin’s withdrawal from the deal a “stab in the back.” Declan Walsh and Paul Sonne report for the New York Times. 

Russian attacks on Ukraine’s exporting facilities in the port city of Odesa “signal a calamitous turn” in the war, Mohamed Khaled Khiari, an assistant secretary-general, said yesterday. “I must emphasize that attacks against civilians and civilian infrastructure may constitute a violation of international humanitarian law,” Khiari added. “Deliberately targeting infrastructure that facilitates the export of food to the rest of the world could be life-threatening to millions of people who need access to affordable food.” U.N. Assistant Secretary-General Khiari said.

The relocation of the paramilitary organization Wagner group to Belarus has prompted fears of a new front along Ukraine’s northern border with Belarus. Ukraine and Poland have increased security measures along their borders with Belarus, which served as a staging ground for Russian forces at the outset of the full-scale invasion. Fredrick Kunkle and Sergii Mukaieliants reports for the Washington Post.

President Biden has ordered the sharing of evidence of Russian war crimes in Ukraine with the International Criminal Court in The Hague, according to officials familiar with the matter. The move marks a significant shift in U.S. policy following months of resistance by the Pentagon, which feared sharing information with the court could pave the way for it to prosecute U.S. troops. U.S. intelligence agencies are said to have details about decisions by Russian officials to deliberately strike civilian infrastructure in Ukraine and forcibly deport thousands of Ukrainian children from occupied territory. Charlie Savage reports for the New York Times. 

A “Russia-backed” disinformation campaign is targeting Sweden in a bid to hurt the image of the NATO candidate by suggesting it supported recent burnings of the Quran, Sweden’s Minister for Civil Defence Carl-Oskar Bohlin said yesterday. “The state guarantees the right to freedom of expression but does not thereby stand behind any political messages,” Swedish Premier Ulf Kristersson clarified. Reuters reports. 

Ukrainian forces launched a fresh push in their counter-offensive against Russia and made some advances in the Zaporizhzhia region, officials said yesterday. Ukrainian forces aim to reach the Sea of Azov, which lies about 60 miles south, to sever Moscow’s land bridge to occupied Crimea. John Hudson, Robyn Dixon, and David L. Stern report for the Washington Post."

lousubcap

Things are heating up in the Ukraine-

"After weeks of preparation and initial assaults, Ukraine's military has finally sent the bulk of its forces into battle for the long-anticipated counteroffensive to claw back land taken during Russia's full-scale invasion that began 17 months ago. 

The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War described it as "a significant mechanized counteroffensive operation in western Zaporizhia Oblast" that appears "to have broken through certain pre-prepared Russian defensive positions south of Orikhiv."

"This kind of penetration battle will be one of the most difficult things for Ukrainian forces to accomplish in pursuit of deeper penetrations," ISW's analysts wrote in their latest assessment. However, "Ukrainians appear to have rotated fresh forces into this area for the operation whereas Russian forces remain pinned to the line apparently without rotation, relief, or significant reinforcement in this sector." Those dynamics "may allow Ukraine to begin pursuing more successful advances south of Orikhiv in the coming weeks," ISW said. 

According to White House and Pentagon officials, "the new operation, if successful, [c]ould last one to three weeks," the New York Times reported Wednesday evening. ISW was not so sanguine, and predicted, "Ukrainian forces can make significant gains in their counteroffensive operations, but that such gains are likely to occur over a long period of time and interspersed with lulls and periods of slower and more grinding efforts" as they work through dozens of miles of obstacles. More, here. 

The Ukrainian military's "summer campaign is in full swing, and we are doing all we can to achieve success," Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov wrote on social media Tuesday. "Our partners stand with us and believe in Ukraine's victory and just peace," he said. 

Ukrainian officials are already planning their next steps, which include assembling "a list of de-occupation steps for Crimea," President Volodymir Zelenskyy said in a video message Wednesday evening. That involves "security, economic, and social" steps so that "We can quickly reintegrate Crimea into the state fabric" of Ukraine, said Zelenskyy. "In fact, the occupiers should already consider that while the Crimean bridge is still somewhat operational, they should return home" to Russia. 

"Russia will lose this war, and no missile will save it," Zelenskyy said. "Crimea, like the rest of Ukraine, will be free—free from all [Russian] evil, starting with Russian missiles and ending with every Russian occupier." "

lousubcap

And another update around 3 hours ago-Ukraine on the offense-

"UKRAINE ATTACKS ‘INTENSIFIED’: Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN said Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the country’s southeastern Zaporizhzhia region has “intensified significantly” the AP’s HANNA ARHIROVA reports, as Ukrainian forces appear to have broken through Russian defensive positions in some areas.

And as efforts to retake territory continue, Kyiv is starting to send thousands of well-trained reinforcements to the front lines, three DOD officials tell our own LARA SELIGMAN.

U.S. officials believe Ukraine is trying to exploit gains made by its 9th Corps on Russia’s main line of defense south of the town of Orikhiv in western Zaporizhzhia. As soldiers from the 9th Corps move forward, Ukraine is sending in fresh troops from its 10th Corps, which includes multiple brigades trained and equipped by the West, in an attempt to break through entrenched Russian positions, one of the DOD officials said.

Once Ukrainian troops can break through those heavily mined defensive positions, the thinking is they will be able to retake ground much more quickly, the official said. 

Ukrainian forces “still have a number of options available to them, and we can expect that they’ll continue to press,” SecDef Austin told reporters in Papua New Guinea today, per CNN. He didn’t provide many details other than that Ukraine has been “preserving manpower and equipment.""

lousubcap

Friday Russia-Ukraine update:

"Ukraine’s military says it has advanced on one of the front lines in southeast Ukraine, as Western officials speculate a significant thrust is underway. While Ukraine has not confirmed that it has strengthened its counter-offensive, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Ukraine’s attacks had “significantly” intensified. Paul Kirby reports BBC News. 

U.S. Abrams tanks are expected to arrive in Ukraine in September. The U.S. plans to send 31 tanks, but the initial delivery will comprise only six to eight tanks. Lara Seligman, Alexander Ward, Paul Mcleary, and Joe Gould report for POLITICO.

Russia is ready to replace Ukrainian grain exports to Africa on a commercial and aid basis to avoid a “global food crisis,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said at a summit with African leaders in St Petersburg. “We will be ready to provide Burkina Faso, Zimbabwe, Mali, Somalia, Central African Republic, and Eritrea with 25-50,000 tonnes of free grain each in the next three to four months,” he said. Anton Troianovski, Declan Walsh, and Lynsey Chutel report for the New York Times. 

The African Union yesterday called on Russia to reinstate the U.N.-brokered Black Sea grain deal allowing Ukraine to export millions of tons of grain. “The problem of grains and fertilizers concerns everyone,” Comoros President Azali Assoumani, who heads the 55-nation African Union, said during the Africa-Russia summit. Nicolas Camut reports for POLITICO.

Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia may close their borders with Belarus if there are serious incidents involving the paramilitary organization Wagner group along their frontiers with Belarus, Poland’s Interior Minister said yesterday. Last week Russian President Vladimir Putin accused Poland of having territorial ambitions in Belarus after Poland moved military units to its east after Wagner mercenaries began training Belarusian special forces a few miles from its border. Reuters reports. "

lousubcap

My usually reliable newsfeed is missing as of now but here

is some Russia-Ukraine info for Monday:

"One person was injured, two Russian government buildings were damaged, and a Moscow airport was briefly forced to close Sunday after a drone attack as Ukraine ramped up efforts to take the war into Russia.

The damaged buildings contained offices of the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the Ministry of Digital Development and the Federal Agency for Nationalities among other agencies, the Russian media outlet The Insider reported. The area was evacuated and several streets were cordoned off. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said it was 'inevitable, natural and ... fair' to bring the war to Russian territory.

'Ukraine is becoming stronger,' Zelenskyy said. 'The war is gradually returning to Russian territory, to its symbolic centers and military bases.'

It was the third strike at Moscow in less than a week. But a Ukrainian air force spokesman said Russians are finally beginning to face the consequences of invading Ukraine in February 2022.

The Pentagon is buying up to 500 Starlink terminals, the satellite internet technology made by Elon Musk’s SpaceX, so Ukraine officials can conduct sensitive communications without fear of interruption, The New York Times reported.

A high-ranking Russian lawmaker warned his nation Sunday that Moscow must win the war in Ukraine or 'cease to exist as a people.' Pyotr Tolstoy, deputy chairman of the Russian Duma, urged Russians to rally around President Vladimir Putin or face harrowing consequences, according to a translation from Russian Media Monitor.

'Right now, Russia is in a situation where either we win in this war, or we cease to exist as a people and as a nation,' Tolstoy said. 'There is no stopping, fortifying, or entrenching.'"

lousubcap

And this just in: Things appear to be heating up-

At least 5 dead, 53 injured after missile attack on Zelensky’s hometown

"At least five people died, and 53 were injured after Russian missiles struck the southern city of Kryvyi Rih, Ukraine’s Internal Affairs Ministry said Monday. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Telegram that emergency services were at the scene in his hometown and “trying to save as many people as possible.

The strikes came after Zelensky said Sunday that attacks inside Russia are “inevitable.” Kremlin officials accused Kyiv of drone strikes in Moscow and Russian-annexed Crimea. Ukrainian officials have not confirmed whether Kyiv played a role in those attacks."

HeavyG

lousubcap said:

My usually reliable newsfeed is missing as of now but here

is some Russia-Ukraine info for Monday:

"One person was injured, two Russian government buildings were damaged, and a Moscow airport was briefly forced to close Sunday after a drone attack as Ukraine ramped up efforts to take the war into Russia.

The damaged buildings contained offices of the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the Ministry of Digital Development and the Federal Agency for Nationalities among other agencies, the Russian media outlet The Insider reported. The area was evacuated and several streets were cordoned off. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said it was 'inevitable, natural and ... fair' to bring the war to Russian territory.

'Ukraine is becoming stronger,' Zelenskyy said. 'The war is gradually returning to Russian territory, to its symbolic centers and military bases.'

It was the third strike at Moscow in less than a week. But a Ukrainian air force spokesman said Russians are finally beginning to face the consequences of invading Ukraine in February 2022.

The Pentagon is buying up to 500 Starlink terminals, the satellite internet technology made by Elon Musk’s SpaceX, so Ukraine officials can conduct sensitive communications without fear of interruption, The New York Times reported.

A high-ranking Russian lawmaker warned his nation Sunday that Moscow must win the war in Ukraine or 'cease to exist as a people.' Pyotr Tolstoy, deputy chairman of the Russian Duma, urged Russians to rally around President Vladimir Putin or face harrowing consequences, according to a translation from Russian Media Monitor.

'Right now, Russia is in a situation where either we win in this war, or we cease to exist as a people and as a nation,' Tolstoy said. 'There is no stopping, fortifying, or entrenching.'"

Regarding Starlink - the NY Times had an interesting article this weekend about Starlink and the coming competitors efforts underway to "smother" the planet with tens of thousands of satellites...

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2023/07/28/business/starlink.html?unlocked_article_code=snn8YtQQHTu7wOPvZ4Wh1beLQRHLRinhx-t505eCosd49XGm6YDz1S12RPn_RIW-_tGJFDNhFZ_r73j_jfd1oTBdV6gmh3y8gYmgcpuBdsESSfsdn3ukVr-b8RwmPi8gef7tUFKvG60I_sQd9I-uzGz69QZTCOahcl_HaFTL5A_QAkURQKBaX9fT4GdNhEE-RAZAeai4mYUkqEe9QPrW3WelzhyYmQAVDbd03lZmwqA2NjCN4bdNssQnK0MGt1hQGFopE-r8a93pZoxQQp1pQcrrVmLvV7ps09f-R0a7AfMAD2-thHItSKoXdd08fnplG_eiQgAdgwxG3eWVEoZ1A0WH9w&smid=url-share


Free link so anyone can read the article.

lousubcap

Thanks for the link.  I knew of the macro level of influence with Starlink but appreciated the deeper look in the article.  

Musk definitely has the hammer and that is where we are with the speed of technological evolution being driven by private enterprise.   

lousubcap

Russia-Ukraine Tuesday update: (Edit to clean up spacing.)

"In another drone strike on Moscow last night, the same skyscraper targeted on Sunday was hit, while air defense systems shot down several other drones. No injuries have been reported. Russia’s defense ministry also said that three Ukrainian drone boats had been destroyed trying to attack Russian naval ships in the Black Sea. Jaroslav Lukiv reports for BBC News.

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said Moscow intensified strikes on Ukrainian military infrastructure in retaliation for attacks on Russian-controlled territory.

Ukraine’s foreign ministry said Russian air strikes destroyed an estimated 180,000 metric tonnes of grain crops in the space of nine days this month.

Shoigu said Western weapons are only prolonging the war and not leading to success on the battlefield, the Russian TASS news agency reported.

Ukraine’s deputy defence minister said Ukrainian forces took back land from Russian troops in the east and south of the country over the past week."

lousubcap

From the Washington Post today:

Do you avoid the news? You’re in growing company.

Linked below-
https://www.washingtonpost.com/media/2023/08/01/news-avoid-depressing/?utm_campaign=wp_post_most&utm_