PSA: Holiday Shopping- In store, online, and "Truck-Ageddon"

The Cen-Tex Smoker

TLDR: Retail stores will be a nightmare this year and trucking capacity is not near enough to handle online holiday demand. Shop now or get ready to be disappointed.

Just wanted to give you guys a quick heads up and hopefully help you avoid some holiday stress and heartache this year.

WalMart has announced that it will be limiting in-store Black Friday and holiday traffic to 20% of store capacity due to coronavirus concerns. As WM goes, so goes the rest of the retail community so expect very long lines and/or very limited access to retail stores around the holidays.

Retailers will be pushing their best promotions on their websites to encourage people to shop online to keep store traffic down as much as possible. Online sales are already shattering records with many people shopping from home these days. With limited access to stores, online sales are expected to test the limits of capacity in many areas this year. The one that is already broken and expected to get way worse as holiday approaches is trucking- especially UPS/FedEx (although OTR trucks are already a nightmare too).

Not only does UPS handle a huge % of the things you order from Amazon, they also handle most of the drop ship items you order from any site you like to shop. FedEx picks up the rest of that and many people use FedEx because Amazon takes up so much of the UPS capacity. In many cases, when you order something from Amazon, Wayfair, Target, or your favorite independent website, those orders come to the manufacturers like me and we send them direct to you in the name of the retailer you bought from. 100% of those orders are shipped UPS/FedEx.

Why am I sharing this? Because of the limited access to stores this holiday and the anticipated surge to the already over-stressed online shopping pipeline, we are getting word from both UPS and FedEx that they will be millions of trucks short this holiday season. They are already telling us that 12/15 is the last possible date to order something online and expect to get it before Christmas. That number is tightening weekly. I bet that number is closer to 12/1 or even Black Friday for many retailers/manufacturers before this is over. We are already seeing slowdowns, cancels, no-shows from FedEx and UPS, and the grind has not even started yet. It's going to get ugly.

None of this even takes into account that many of us are already oversold due to shift of people being home more (tried to buy BGE accessories or lump lately?).  Many things are going to be harder to find and harder to get to you if you do find them.

My advice to you is to shop now if you can and don't wait past Black Friday if you are hoping to score a few deals. Keep an eye out for early hot deals; I believe that promotions will come early this year to take advantage of the limited trucking capacity that is available. Get as much done as early as you can or there are going to be some frowny faces around the tree this year.

Get ready for a bumpy ride. Be Early, Be Fast, Be Nimble.

lousubcap

Thanks for the PSA.  What a friggin ride 2020 is.  I will be da-n sure to see it into the rear view mirror on 12/31-perhaps even a few time zones worth just to make sure.  

nolaegghead

Black Friday?  The 2020 version should be called the black plague because it'll throw some gasoline on the spread.

The Cen-Tex Smoker

lousubcap said:

Thanks for the PSA.  What a friggin ride 2020 is.  I will be da-n sure to see it into the rear view mirror on 12/31-perhaps even a few time zones worth just to make sure.  

If you think your favorite shipping company is bad now, grab a beer and enjoy the show. 

frazzdaddy

The Cen-Tex Smoker said:

lousubcap said:

Thanks for the PSA.  What a friggin ride 2020 is.  I will be da-n sure to see it into the rear view mirror on 12/31-perhaps even a few time zones worth just to make sure.  

If you think your favorite shipping company is bad now, grab a beer and enjoy the show. 

I ordered a sump pump from Northern and tracked it to delivery. Did not show.
Three days after I called Northern and told them it did not arrive after fedex said it did.I found it two days later out behind the chicken coop in the dirt (100 yards from the house). I swear the driver threw it out on the way through the property.

SGH

frazzdaddy said:

I ordered a sump pump from Northern and tracked it to delivery. Did not show.
Three days after I called Northern and told them it did not arrive after fedex said it did.I found it two days later out behind the chicken coop in the dirt (100 yards from the house). I swear the driver threw it out on the way through the property.

I can top that. I ordered 3 butcher steels July 22. One of them came in August. One of them came this Tuesday. One of them has not come. All of them show delivered on July 26. Go figure. 

TEXASBGE2018

We bought 90% of the kiddos presents already. Everything left will be items we can easily head to any Target store and pick up. SWMBO made sure we started earlier this month so we could get it over with and make sure what we ordered got here on time.

SciAggie

Thanks for the heads up. 

kl8ton

I've shared it here before, but I'll share again.  I ordered a large color laser printer.  Should have been next day even with ups ground.  (Chicago to Grand Rapids MI) It was fun tracking it throughout the week.  Last I knew, tracking showed it in Buenos Aires Argentina. 

SamIAm2

kl8ton said:

I've shared it here before, but I'll share again.  I ordered a large color laser printer.  Should have been next day even with ups ground.  (Chicago to Grand Rapids MI) It was fun tracking it throughout the week.  Last I knew, tracking showed it in Buenos Aires Argentina. 

Did not know Michigan had both an Upper Peninsula and a Much Lower Peninsula. 

loco_engr

Appreciate the heads up!  TY

Acn

kl8ton said:

I've shared it here before, but I'll share again.  I ordered a large color laser printer.  Should have been next day even with ups ground.  (Chicago to Grand Rapids MI) It was fun tracking it throughout the week.  Last I knew, tracking showed it in Buenos Aires Argentina. 

I got this delivery map from Amazon earlier this year.

RyanStl

We are back to one day and two day shipping from Amazon, I guess that won't last. Should be a good year if someone wants a second seasonal job for extra Christmas money.

I have waited on a few purchases knowing prices will be down for Black Friday and Cyber Monday, but maybe I shouldn't hold back.

The Cen-Tex Smoker

RyanStl said:

We are back to one day and two day shipping from Amazon, I guess that won't last. Should be a good year if someone wants a second seasonal job for extra Christmas money.

I have waited on a few purchases knowing prices will be down for Black Friday and Cyber Monday, but maybe I shouldn't hold back.

We are too this week. 

We have not seen the rush of orders start yet at work either. It usually comes within the next week or so. I imagine people are probably focused on the election this week and then...hold on tight. 

This is always a weird time for retail and those of us who support it. Quiet before the storm kind of thing. 

gonepostal

I can't even imagine what this holiday season will look like. Regarding packages, each year always seems to be greater than the previous one. And since March many days have been "Christmas like."  Our Amazon delivery on Sunday has turned from a 4 hr morning run for the newbies into a full workday for as many volunteers as they can get. Our OT guys are working 7 days a week often 12-14 hrs/day. It's going to be insane.

I am taking the last of my annual leave for the year this week. Quite frankly, I don't trust the subs to do the job right. Lots of seasonal help will be hired soon and you get what you would expect with that. And it has become a little ritual of mine to take advantage of the overtime opportunity that comes along anyway. And plus, I want an offset smoker!

Listen to CT. Order early. I'm seeing really good Black Friday deals starting tomorrow at Walmart. And best of luck to all with your deliveries this year!

The Cen-Tex Smoker

We just got word that Wednesday is the last day of the month we can deliver by Christmas via FedEx and 15th is the last day for UPS. Get your orders in now folks. It is happening.

lousubcap

Heeded your advice out of the gate.  Much appreciated.  

thetrim

Go with the five letter company...