Oil Spill - Not Looking Good

Gator Bait

 
Again, not much to see. Cloud cover and other factors make this difficult at best. The dispersant they are using on the spill may cause more of it to stay submerged. The wind, tides and currents help fragment it. The spill may have only been visible by satellite when it was concentrated into a smaller area. I will keep posting these images for a while. I believe that the whispy, light areas around the shore are just shallow water.




Gator

 

Gator Bait

 
Thanks BENTE, I have noticed that the view counter has been going up constantly so I knew someone was interested. I used to work with satellite imagery in college and loved it. I wish I had the resources now that I had then. I can't help but wonder what the National Academy of Science is using to track the spill with?

Gator

 

Boilermaker Ben

There's a view counter? Where? I've always seen the reply counter, but never a view counter.

Gator Bait

 
Hi Ben,

My index page shows the number of views. This thread is up to about 842 as I write this. I view the forum in classic format and with no side panels if that is any help. "Threaded view" is showing in the small text just below the subject so I guess I'm not using it either.


Gator

 

Boilermaker Ben

Ah, that's it. It's only in certain views.

Gator Bait

 
Yup, but it counts all of them. :laugh:

Gator

 

Gator Bait

 
It's a pretty picture but tells us little.



NPR has a map HERE that is pretty good, not completely up to date but pretty good.
They also have a rather complete looking article HERE . Their server may be slow at times.

Gator

 

BigA

well i know it isnt good, thats all that needs to be said

Boilermaker Ben

From the horse's mouth:
http://www.deepwaterhorizonresponse.com/go/site/2931/

Gator Bait

 
Hey Ben,

Thanks for posting their site. Under the different state information there are maps and info far superior to anything I have seen elsewhere.

Thanks,

Gator

 

Gator Bait

 
Todays image from NASA once again is not showing much. The dark shadow in the satellite image sort of corresponds to the projection in the Google image but that may be coincidental. The dirty looking brown speck to the left of center and slightly below may be the site of the Deepwater Horizon. It is in the same neighborhood.



This image is generated with a Google Earth layer from HERE


If you run Google Earth on your computer just click on the link. When given the option select to Open the file. It should open Google Earth and display a layer with the current spill information on it. i have turned off some of the information to cut down on the clutter. The red triangle with the ! in it is the Deepwater Horizon.

There are also maps at that same site with the most current predictions that are much better then what is visible in the NASA images I have been down loading.

Gator
 

Gator Bait

 
Todays image looks like it is showing part of the spill slightly left of lower center (?). There are other parts of the image that may be oil but may also be low altitude clouds. Low clouds can be a bit confusing if they are not big and puffy and/or throwing a distinct shadow.



This image from Google Earth shows the projections for a day or two ago and the most recent one. These projections are on the Governors Office of Homeland Security & Emergency Preparedness page for the state of Louisiana as a Google Earth KMZ file. I have over laid the two files and have colored the previous one yellow with a green outline and have left the recent one gray with a red outline.



In this image I have overlaid the satellite image over the spill data and have lined them up fairly close.


Gator

 

cookn biker

Thanks for these updates Blair. What a mess! This will bring changes on alot of levels.

Gator Bait

 
Todays image again is very difficult to tell the difference between oil and low level clouds.



The projection from the Governors office has not changed, I hope they will update that tomorrow.

Gator

 

Gator Bait

 
Thanks Molly, I hope you're right.

I wish I could find better information. The news I see on TV does not show maps or images depicting the extent of the spill so I try to do that. The Google Earth files from the Governors office in Louisiana are probably as good as we are going to find but they are projections. Predictions . . . educated guesses.

Blair

 

Gator Bait

 
HERE is a web site with a Google Earth application that will superimpose the spill over a handful of preselected cities or you can enter your own location. I entered Fort Myers and it was not a pretty picture. This site was mentioned on the NBC Nightly News. You do not need to be running Google Earth to view this page.

Gator

 

Gator Bait

 
Todays satellite image shows part of the spill. The angle of the light needs to be right to get the reflection off the oil or it may not show up. The heavier oil is what we see in the NASA images.


The latest projection from the Governors Office in Louisiana.


I have superimposed the NASA image over the projection.


This image from a couple days ago . . . shows the oils to the south of the delta, left of the main body of the spill.


The previous projections from the Governors Office.


The Governors latest projection, out today, is just starting to show that portion of the spill. I makes me wonder . . . do we really know where the oil is?


I wish I knew, if I find out I will pass it on.

Gator

 

Gator Bait

 
Sorry I had a late day. Tomorrow I will try again.

Gator

 

Gator Bait

 
Todays satellite image, not much to see.


The latest projection from the Governors Office.


The satellite image overlaid on the projection.


I'm baffled by the projections from the Governors Office. Here I have overlaid todays on top of yesterdays. Yesterdays I have colored green, todays red.

We know the spill is not getting any smaller . . . yet.

Gator

 

Gator Bait

 
The Weather Channel has some interesting info.
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/topstories/gulfoilspill.html

The map "Oil Spill Forecast: Where will it go?" is interesting midway down that page.

Gator

 

Gator Bait

 
Here is another extensive list of current articles on the oil spill.

http://www.nola.com/news/gulf-oil-spill/

Gator

 

Gator Bait

 
Todays satellite image.


Todays projection is identical to yesterdays. I believe these are compiled from data provided by NASA pilots that fly over the gulf. It may explain why some days the spill is larger then others. If NASA doesn't fly over part of the Gulf, that data is left from the projection.


The two images superimposed.


It's hard to tell anything from the images today due to the cloud cover and no new projection, tomorrows another day.

Gator

 

Gator Bait

 
Todays images.

Clouds are obscuring the view today, probably normal for this time of year with the higher humidity.


The latest projection from the Governors Office in Louisiana.


The two images overlaid.


This is with all the projections to date (I think) turned on, and may be a more accurate idea of the extent of the spill.


This image shows some of the National Wildlife Refuges.


This image shows some of the State Wildlife Management Areas.


This image shows some of the Public Oyster Areas.


This image shows some of the Sea Bird Nesting Areas.


Have a good night,

Gator

 

Gator Bait

 
Todays NASA image is very cloudy.


The projection has not changed over the weekend, someone has the weekend off.


The two overlaid give an idea of the weather in the area if nothing else.



Gator


 

Gator Bait

Calculations of size of Gulf spill are questioned -
Environmentalists, scientists say real figure must be far larger

By JUSTIN GILLIS
New York Times
updated 9:02 a.m. ET, Fri., May 14, 2010

Link to original story HERE

NEW YORK - Two weeks ago, the government put out a round estimate of the size of the oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico: 5,000 barrels a day. Repeated endlessly in news reports, it has become conventional wisdom.

But scientists and environmental groups are raising sharp questions about that estimate, declaring that the leak must be far larger. They also criticize BP for refusing to use well-known scientific techniques that would give a more precise figure.

The criticism escalated on Thursday, a day after the release of a video that showed a huge black plume of oil gushing from the broken well at a seemingly high rate. BP has repeatedly claimed that measuring the plume would be impossible.

The figure of 5,000 barrels a day was hastily produced by government scientists in Seattle. It appears to have been calculated using a method that is specifically not recommended for major oil spills.

Ian R. MacDonald, an oceanographer at Florida State University who is an expert in the analysis of oil slicks, said he had made his own rough calculations using satellite imagery. They suggested that the leak could “easily be four or five times” the government estimate, he said.

“The government has a responsibility to get good numbers,” Dr. MacDonald said. “If it’s beyond their technical capability, the whole world is ready to help them.”

Size related to potential damage
Scientists said that the size of the spill was directly related to the amount of damage it would do in the ocean and onshore, and that calculating it accurately was important for that reason.

BP has repeatedly said that its highest priority is stopping the leak, not measuring it. “There’s just no way to measure it,” Kent Wells, a BP senior vice president, said in a recent briefing.

Yet for decades, specialists have used a technique that is almost tailor-made for the problem. With undersea gear that resembles the ultrasound machines in medical offices, they measure the flow rate from hot-water vents on the ocean floor. Scientists said that such equipment could be tuned to allow for accurate measurement of oil and gas flowing from the well.

Richard Camilli and Andy Bowen, of the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts, who have routinely made such measurements, spoke extensively to BP last week, Mr. Bowen said. They were poised to fly to the gulf to conduct volume measurements.

But they were contacted late in the week and told not to come, at around the time BP decided to lower a large metal container to try to capture the leak. That maneuver failed. They have not been invited again.

“The government and BP are calling the shots, so I will have to respect their judgment,” Dr. Camilli said.

BP: No change in scale of response
BP did not respond Thursday to a question about why Dr. Camilli and Mr. Bowen were told to stand down. Speaking more broadly about the company’s policy on measuring the leak, a spokesman, David Nicholas, said that “the estimated rate of flow would not affect either the direction or scale of our response, which is the largest in history.”

Dr. MacDonald and other scientists said the government agency that monitors the oceans, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, had been slow to mount the research effort needed to analyze the leak and assess its effects. Sylvia Earle, a former chief scientist at NOAA and perhaps the country’s best-known oceanographer, said that she, too, was concerned by the pace of the scientific response.

But Jane Lubchenco, the NOAA administrator, said in an interview on Thursday: “Our response has been instantaneous and sustained. We would like to have more assets. We would like to be doing more. We are throwing everything at it that we physically can.”

The issue of how fast the well is leaking has been murky from the beginning. For several days after the April 21 explosion of the Deepwater Horizon rig, the government and BP claimed that the well on the ocean floor was leaking about 1,000 barrels a day.

First increase in estimate
A small organization called SkyTruth, which uses satellite images to monitor environmental problems, published an estimate on April 27 suggesting that the flow rate had to be at least 5,000 barrels a day, and probably several times that.

The following day, the government — over public objections from BP — raised its estimate to 5,000 barrels a day. A barrel is 42 gallons, so the estimate works out to 210,000 gallons per day.

BP later acknowledged to Congress that the worst case, if the leak accelerated, would be 60,000 barrels a day, a flow rate that would dump a plume the size of the Exxon Valdez spill into the gulf every four days. BP’s chief executive, Tony Hayward, has estimated that the reservoir tapped by the out-of-control well holds at least 50 million barrels of oil.

The 5,000-barrel-a-day estimate was produced in Seattle by a NOAA unit that responds to oil spills. It was calculated with a protocol known as the Bonn convention that calls for measuring the extent of an oil spill, using its color to judge the thickness of oil atop the water, and then multiplying.

However, Alun Lewis, a British oil-spill consultant who is an authority on the Bonn convention, said the method was specifically not recommended for analyzing large spills like the one in the Gulf of Mexico, since the thickness was too difficult to judge in such a case.

Even when used for smaller spills, he said, correct application of the technique would never produce a single point estimate, like the government’s figure of 5,000 barrels a day, but rather a range that would likely be quite wide.

NOAA declined to supply detailed information on the mathematics behind the estimate, nor would it address the points raised by Mr. Lewis.

Mr. Lewis cited a video of the gushing oil pipe that was released on Wednesday. He noted that the government’s estimate would equate to a flow rate of about 146 gallons a minute. (A garden hose flows at about 10 gallons per minute.)

“Just anybody looking at that video would probably come to the conclusion that there’s more,” Mr. Lewis said.

The government has made no attempt to update its estimate since releasing it on April 28.

“I think the estimate at the time was, and remains, a reasonable estimate,” said Dr. Lubchenco, the NOAA administrator. “Having greater precision about the flow rate would not really help in any way. We would be doing the same things.”

Environmental groups contend, however, that the flow rate is a vital question. Since this accident has shattered the illusion that deep-sea oil drilling is immune to spills, they said, this one is likely to become the touchstone in planning a future response.

“If we are systematically underestimating the rate that’s being spilled, and we design a response capability based on that underestimate, then the next time we have an event of this magnitude, we are doomed to fail again,” said John Amos, the president of SkyTruth. “So it’s really important to get this number right.”

Gator Bait

 
Todays image shows the long arm of the spill extending to the southeast.


The projection put out by NASA that I have been getting from the Governors office in Louisiana has not changed since last week. I saw little point in posting it again. I have serious doubts to it's validity anyways. While Washington and the Oil Companies play their finger pointing games the spill is not waiting for anyone. My 2¢.

Gator

 

Boilermaker Ben

Execs and Congressmen are paid to talk, workers are paid to work. Just because there is finger pointing going on doesn't mean there isn't work being done.

BP has people working on response, both direct employees and hired temporary workers (out-of-work fishermen and other locals). The gov't is also very actively involved, with the coast guard being just a part of their response. Local gov'ts are organizing a HUGE volunteer response. Between BP, other companies, and the government, there are an estimated 13,000 people employed in the response. The volunteer force is estimated at another 16,000!

The spill situation is not good, but it's not like everyone is dysfunctional. There might be finger pointing going on up at the top, but down in the trenches, real folks are working side by side. I have spoken with people who have been down there, and who have seen (and been part of) the response. While the effects of this are certainly going to be disastrous, the response efforts, in the end, might wind up being one of the best examples of people coming together to get things done.

Gator Bait

 
Glad to hear your response Ben, the news coverage is inconclusive at best in regards to any aspect of the spill. If needed I will volunteer to help in our area. Waiting is not fun. I'm sure there are many in the trenches that are doing all that they can and you are right, they should not be over looked.

It is my opinion that the federal government has done far to little, far to late and is at the heart of the problem.

Gator

 

deepsouth

Five days after appearing before Congress to testify about its responsibility in one of the worst oil spills in US history, the Swiss company that owned and operated the oil rig that sunk into the Gulf of Mexico announced that it would shell out $1 billion in dividends to shareholders.[/B]

http://rawstory.com/rs/2010/0517/spill-rig-owner-approves-1-billion-dividend-shareholders/

Five days after appearing before Congress to testify about its responsibility in one of the worst oil spills in US history, the Swiss company that owned and operated the oil rig that sunk into the Gulf of Mexico announced that it would shell out $1 billion in dividends to shareholders.

The revelation that Transocean is distributing a $1 billion profit to shareholders as one of its drill sites leaks millions of gallons of oil into the sea is sure to inflame an already smarting debate over offshore drilling and the company's role.

Transocean has passionately argued that they don't share financial responsibility for the disaster. A clause in a contract they had with BP says that the oil company is obligated to pay for any environmental damage, even though Transocean actually owned the rig. BP was leasing the rig from Transocean at the time of the accident.

Transocean's distribution to shareholders was done quietly on Friday at a "closed door meeting." The company had previously announced that they would vote on the dividend at the event.

To put the distribution in perspective, the amount of profit that Transocean plans to pay out in the next year is half of what Exxon ultimately paid for the Exxon Valdez disaster off the Alaska Coast.

It's also more than double what BP has said they've spent on the cleanup to date.

The company also made a paper gain from their insurance carrier after the Deepwater Horizon rig collapsed into the ocean aflame.

Transocean had insured the rig for $560 million, but apparently never spent that much money actually building it. The company's CEO told investors on a recent conference call that the firm had book a $270 million "accounting gain" on the difference between the real value of the rig and the amount that they'd insured it for.

Since the rig collapsed, the company said they've already received $401 million from their insurance policy.

The Associated Press also notes that "Transocean moved to Switzerland two years ago to protect its low corporate tax rate, and few in the city had heard of the company, even three weeks after the April 20 blast that resulted in more than 4 million gallons (15 million liters) of oil pouring into the Gulf of Mexico from the well drilled by the BP-leased rig. Eleven workers were killed in the explosion."

"Steven Newman ignored questions from reporters as he arrived and left the Park Hotel in the Swiss town of Zug, a few miles from the company's headquarters," AP added.

In a brief press release on their website, the firm noted the terms of the dividend, expected to be paid out to shareholders in four increments over the next year.

"Shareholders also authorized the Board of Directors to make a cash distribution to shareholders in the form of a par value reduction in the aggregate amount of 3.44 Swiss francs ("CHF") equal to approximately USD 3.11 per issued share to be calculated and paid in four quarterly installments," the release said. "Based on the total number of issued shares, including treasury shares, the distribution is approximately USD 1.0 billion."

It adds, "The Board of Directors expects to set the respective payment dates of the four installments in July 2010, October 2010, January 2011 and April 2011, or as soon after each of the four periods as is practicable. The actual installment payments will be subject to the satisfaction of applicable Swiss law requirements."

Gator Bait

 
Thanks Jason, that's very interesting.

Gator