Nancy Pelosi in Taiwan

dmchicago

I'm sure she wants to Communicate Historic Understanding Meant for our relationship with Taiwan. 

Good idea, or no?

Wrong  answers only!

fishlessman

this one scares me more than the putin thing. china thinks things thru and they have been thinking about taiwan for a long time now. other than that, i got nothing

lousubcap

The good/bad idea depends on perspective.

Where Pelosi fvcked up was in advertising the visit.  She coulda gotten in and out before the Chinese could react but now we are in a standoff.  Who’s gonna blink first-

The US by her not going or she visits and the reaction is fairly tame? 
Well, she didn't blink so now what??

I offered the below yesterday to a couple of friends who asked my thoughts.  (No worries, I made sure they were aware of the low level of insight I would provide.)

"I’m guessing she goes even though Joe says no and the CJCS suggests against it.

Time will tell-

My take is that if she goes, the Chinese will send a lot of air power to harass the Taiwanese defense system. "
We will see the Chinese response.  FWIW-

Gulfcoastguy

Are they trying to find an excuse to arm Taiwan? Endangering 80% of the world's computer ships and incidentally one old biddy.

JohnInCarolina

Merits of the trip aside, Pelosi sure does trigger some folks.  I've never quite understood that.  

littlerascal56

She’s there now.  Wonder what the defcon level is today?Things might get interesting this afternoon!

dmchicago

JohnInCarolina said:

Merits of the trip aside, Pelosi sure does trigger some folks.  I've never quite understood that.  

The most effective speaker in my lifetime. Most universally popular as well. 

HeavyG

I'll go with good idea.

In recent years China has become ever more aggressive in messaging that they will eventually take Taiwan back into their fold by force if need be.

Pelosi's visit will signal that if China does try that then there will be repercussions they may find disagreeable. Certainly China is watching the Western reaction to Ukraine/Russia to gauge what sort of sanctions/trade restrictions an invasion of Taiwan might provoke. I don't think we (the West) have gone far enough in limiting continued Russian business/travel/trade - we shouldn't just be sanctioning oligarchs we should be blocking any Russian citizen from travel outside of Russia.

Of course the problem with playing that game with China is that since we sold out so much of our manufacturing to them so long ago could we bear having our store shelves empty for long? Who would blink first?

I don't really think China is likely to militarily invade Taiwan but what do I know - I never thought The Donald could ever be selected as POTUS.

What China needs to do is to follow the Russian playbook and meddle in foreign elections to put in place a puppet of their choosing.

Bottom line... can't we all just get along?

Botch

The Taiwan Relations Act, nice refresher.  
https://www.congress.gov/96/statute/STATUTE-93/STATUTE-93-Pg14.pdf

dmchicago

Botch said:

The Taiwan Relations Act, nice refresher.  
https://www.congress.gov/96/statute/STATUTE-93/STATUTE-93-Pg14.pdf

I’m trying to find a copy of the 
Taiwan War Avoidance Treaty. 

Anyone got a copy? 

lousubcap

BTW- the USS Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) aircraft carrier and its air wing are in the South China Sea along with a big Deck Amphib with F-35's on board.  Both sides are smart enough to know the limits of the game right now.  

JohnInCarolina

dmchicago said:

Botch said:

The Taiwan Relations Act, nice refresher.  
https://www.congress.gov/96/statute/STATUTE-93/STATUTE-93-Pg14.pdf

I’m trying to find a copy of the 
Taiwan War Avoidance Treaty. 

Anyone got a copy? 

I think you'll find it adjacent to the Foreign Assessment Reaction Treaty. 

WildmanWilson

China has us by the balls. They are increasingly owning our land and industry. Too many of of politicians are in their pockets. Not to mention all the intellectual property they steal. 

We are overly dependent on them to supply us with most everything. Trump tried to warn everyone but we continue to be their b:tch. Much like Germany became to Russia. America is becoming weaker while China grows in power. America is more worried about what pronouns to use and driving us into the poor house with their green energy deals. But I’m sure the dynamic duo of Biden and Pelosi have it under control. 

lousubcap

And for your enlightenment and no pearls here-

"At Bloomberg Opinion, Minxin Pei writes that while “a Normandy-style, amphibious invasion of Taiwan … is unlikely in the next five to seven years,” we should expect an uptick in Chinese “gray zone” activities—a term that, in various contexts, can encompass intimidation or harassment tactics like military exercises, designed to exert pressure while stopping short of open conflict. 
 
At Foreign Affairs, David Sacks offers a playbook for America. Beijing has a stronger military than it did during the last Taiwan Strait crisis, in 1995–1996, and it has less reason to maintain good standing with Washington, as US–China relations are “in a free fall,” Sacks argues. The best thing for the US to do, Sacks writes, is keep a low profile, continue to strengthen military cooperation with Taiwan behind the scenes, and try to forge a trade deal with Taipei."

JohnInCarolina

lousubcap said:

And for your enlightenment and no pearls here-

"At Bloomberg Opinion, Minxin Pei writes that while “a Normandy-style, amphibious invasion of Taiwan … is unlikely in the next five to seven years,” we should expect an uptick in Chinese “gray zone” activities—a term that, in various contexts, can encompass intimidation or harassment tactics like military exercises, designed to exert pressure while stopping short of open conflict. 
 
At Foreign Affairs, David Sacks offers a playbook for America. Beijing has a stronger military than it did during the last Taiwan Strait crisis, in 1995–1996, and it has less reason to maintain good standing with Washington, as US–China relations are “in a free fall,” Sacks argues. The best thing for the US to do, Sacks writes, is keep a low profile, continue to strengthen military cooperation with Taiwan behind the scenes, and try to forge a trade deal with Taipei."

Some obvious tension there.  The more we develop a connection with Taiwan, the more China will think twice about invading.  On the other side of that coin, the more it will become problematic for the US whenever they do.

I have friends who live in Taipei.  They’ve watched what has happened to Hong Kong.  This is all too real to them.

dmchicago

Y’all being all serious and I’m still trying to
find the T. W. A. T. 

JohnInCarolina

dmchicago said:

Y’all being all serious and I’m still trying to find the T. W. A. T. 

Would’ve thought we had lost you to the Biden International Democracy Expansion Treaty.  

dmchicago

That thing got flushed faster than the 
Democratic Unilateral Keynote Electorate.  

Ozzie_Isaac

China imports about 70% of their energy.  The majority goes through the Straits of Malacca. There are ways to tighten the screws on them.

  I am not sure what I think about NP heading to Taiwan.  I would have preferred AOC or someone with a little more foreign policy experience.

Botch

lousubcap said:

BTW- the USS Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) aircraft carrier and its air wing are in the South China Sea along with a big Deck Amphib with F-35's on board.  

Hopefully those F-35s have been cleared vis-a-vis the Martin-Baker ejection seat snafu.  Apparently a tech, inspecting the CAD/PAD (here at Hill), thought a MB cartridge felt very light, and turned out it had NO propellant in it!  The Navy grounded a bunch of aircraft, and the AF grounded them ALL (they are now flying again, at least locally).  
MB said it was a QC issue, now corrected, but dayam that's a huge error.  And I bet my former office (I worked in CAD/PAD for ten years) are jumping thru hoops right now.  Also didn't know Martin Baker made CAD/PAD, thought they only did the full ejection seat, and subbed out the explosive components.  
Love retirement, but I'm also pulled into these stories to follow.    

lousubcap

As I recall, the DOD (or perhaps each service) grounded them in non-deployed status.  Those on the front lines were to get inspected/fixed when operationally available. 
I doubt there will be any air-to-air activity regarding Pelosi's visit but I have missed the mark before.  
Of course, when is the AF deployed??     Couldn't pass up the opportunity to take that shot!

Gulfcoastguy

Ozzie_Isaac said:

China imports about 70% of their energy.  The majority goes through the Straits of Malacca. There are ways to tighten the screws on them.

  I am not sure what I think about NP heading to Taiwan.  I would have preferred AOC or someone with a little more foreign policy experience.

Not that China doesn’t deserve it but do you remember how Pearl Harbor happened? We cut off 94% of Japan’s oil.

Ozzie_Isaac

Gulfcoastguy said:

Ozzie_Isaac said:

China imports about 70% of their energy.  The majority goes through the Straits of Malacca. There are ways to tighten the screws on them.

  I am not sure what I think about NP heading to Taiwan.  I would have preferred AOC or someone with a little more foreign policy experience.

Not that China doesn’t deserve it but do you remember how Pearl Harbor happened? We cut off 94% of Japan’s oil.

Thank you for that rabbit hole, honestly had no idea about this aspect.  I am rapidly reading through focs now though.

JohnInCarolina

Ozzie_Isaac said:

Gulfcoastguy said:

Ozzie_Isaac said:

China imports about 70% of their energy.  The majority goes through the Straits of Malacca. There are ways to tighten the screws on them.

  I am not sure what I think about NP heading to Taiwan.  I would have preferred AOC or someone with a little more foreign policy experience.

Not that China doesn’t deserve it but do you remember how Pearl Harbor happened? We cut off 94% of Japan’s oil.

Thank you for that rabbit hole, honestly had no idea about this aspect.  I am rapidly reading through focs now though.

It was a very different time, in a lot of ways.

Gulfcoastguy

History tends to repeat itself, adjusted for new technology.

lousubcap

Some media on Pelosi's Taiwan visit:

During a historic trip to Taiwan, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said her visit was intended to make it "unequivocally clear" that the U.S. would "not abandon" the democratically governed island. Pelosi left Taiwan today, en route to South Korea's capital Seoul, after becoming the first sitting House Speaker in 25 years to visit the self-governing island. Pelosi's praise of the island's commitment to democracy was a significant show of support for Taipei, in the face of escalating threats from China. Rob Picheta reports for CNN. 

China has threatened to hold major military exercises around Taiwan this week in response to Pelosi’s visit to the island.  Shortly after Pelosi landed in Taipei, China announced that the People’s Liberation Army would hold live-fire drills — exercises using live ammunition — at several points around Taiwan. Taiwan’s defense ministry said China’s threat to hold live-fire exercise areas was aimed at threatening the country’s key ports and urban areas and unilaterally damaged regional peace and stability. Kathrine Hille and Demetri Sevastopulo report for the Financial Times. 

Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan reflects Washington’s desire to prove its "impunity and display their lawlessness," Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has said. Lavrov also connected Pelosi's visit with the U.S. response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, saying: "I cannot tell what was their [the Americans’] motivation but there are no doubts that it reflects the very same policy we are talking about with regards to the Ukrainian situation." Radia Gigova reports for CNN. 

lousubcap

nm

fishlessman

a customer of mine used taiwan as the back door to shipping to china, bet that back door is shut down right now.  a different note, his last package was picked up by chinas version of fedex,  they took out a gun and shot up the package before releasing it for delivery........was actually in customs at the time  for about a year and shot up but fedex makes a better read

WildmanWilson

Ozzie_Isaac said:

China imports about 70% of their energy.  The majority goes through the Straits of Malacca. There are ways to tighten the screws on them.

  I am not sure what I think about NP heading to Taiwan.  I would have preferred AOC or someone with a little more foreign policy experience.

I’m not even sure if you’re joking or not about AOC.  I mean, she was a bartender that can probably serve a mean apple martini but….yikes!!

lousubcap

China's reaction-

"Taiwan blockade in the works, or tough-guy posturing to save face? China's military will begin several days of live-fire drills surrounding the island of Taiwan, beginning at noon local time Thursday and running through noon Sunday, in a bellicose and short-notice gesture widely seen as a direct response to the rare visit Tuesday by U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D.-Calif.  

Six areas around Taiwan have been declared "danger zones," according to passenger airlines that received a warning overnight to avoid sending planes near the six blocks for drills, according to Bloomberg, reporting Wednesday. 

• See for yourself: Review the live-fire zones via this map China's defense ministry shared Tuesday after Pelosi landed in Taipei.

Historical echo: Compare those six blocks with six others China's military similarly announced during the so-called "Third Taiwan Strait Crisis" in the mid-1990s, in a map shared by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's M. Taylor Fravel, here. (Others, like online mapmaker Nathan Ruser, have overlaid the most recent map with Taiwan's approximate territorial waters to suggest this time China is much closer to sensitive ports and infrastructure than their six live-fire zones nearly three decades ago; the New York Times did much the same, and illustrated the approximate lines for Taiwan's maritime border in relation to China's warning zones, here.)"

JohnInCarolina

I think this is going to end up being much more smoke than fire when it's all said and done, but we'll see.