Recent bills: CHIPs and Inflation (with Manchin)

JohnInCarolina

Lots of drama over the past couple of days around these two bills.  Obviously we will see what actually gets passed, but it is encouraging to me at least that the Dems appeared to strike a deal with Manchin to pass something that has aspects of support for health care, Medicare negotiating for prescription drug prices, increased corporate taxes, and climate change.  Lots of things in there that will have a direct impact on the lives of many citizens.  

I had some awareness of the CHIPs thing as people in engineering departments have known this was in the works for a while now.  Frankly I think there's a lot of good stuff in there as well, which is why it has fairly broad bipartisan support.  But what I had not appreciated until this morning is the way these two things are coupled together by Manchin.  From Josh Marshall over at TPM:

"In case you didn’t notice I wanted to draw your attention to one thing. While Senator Schumer and the White House were trying to revive some skinny version of the BBB and climate legislation with Joe Manchin, Senator McConnell tried to scuttle those talks with a threat. He would pull GOP support from the China competition/CHIPs bill if the Democrats did not drop those negotiations. As it happened, Manchin scuttled the deal so the threat became moot. Then the CHIPs bill passed the Senate yesterday and then within like an hour – voila – the Manchin deal was back and somehow finalized. Senate Republicans were clearly pissed but the bill had already passed the Senate.

It certainly seems like Senate Democrats pulled a fast one on their Republican colleagues. As surprising as it may seem, it’s hard to see how Manchin wasn’t in on it at some level. House Republicans certainly seem to think so. They’ve now switched to whipping members to vote against the bill. Notwithstanding the fact that it actually has broad bipartisan support, as well as strong support from the semiconductor industry and the foreign policy and national security community. But the House isn’t the Senate. Democrats don’t need Republicans to break a filibuster. They probably don’t need Republicans at all. The question is whether enough House progressives will take the lead of Senator Bernie Sanders and vote against the bill as a giveaway to corporate America. But the administration seems to have members of the House Progressive Caucus broadly on board. Adding to the complexity and the fun, voting against the bill probably represents an electoral liability for Republicans in a number of key districts."

That is absolutely delicious if it's true.  This is the kind of thing that the GOP would pull all the time under McConnell.  The Dems usually aren't this savvy.  

fishlessman

i hope theres some stipulation in this chips package that these companies can not sell the new equipment to a third world nation AGAIN.  i will be very surprised if that industry comes back at all. just to generate prints for new grow chambers will take years then theres slim pickings in the fab industry that can even build them, those companies are mostly gone

JohnInCarolina

fishlessman said:

i hope theres some stipulation in this chips package that these companies can not sell the new equipment to a third world nation AGAIN.  i will be very surprised if that industry comes back at all. just to generate prints for new grow chambers will take years then theres slim pickings in the fab industry that can even build them, those companies are mostly gone

There are a couple of companies in position to put together the sort of fab facilities that are needed for this - namely Wolfspeed and Intel.  My understanding is that both pretty much have things ready to go forward once this bill gets passed.  That equipment won’t be going anywhere anytime soon, as there are all sorts of strings attached to the funds. 

But this is kind of thing is the bare minimum that’s needed for the US to even try to keep pace with the sort of investments our foreign competitors are making.  This bill isn’t going to make us completely self sufficient.  That would be next to impossible.  Rather the point is to blunt the impact a little bit for whenever the next global crisis hits.   

fishlessman

JohnInCarolina said:

fishlessman said:

i hope theres some stipulation in this chips package that these companies can not sell the new equipment to a third world nation AGAIN.  i will be very surprised if that industry comes back at all. just to generate prints for new grow chambers will take years then theres slim pickings in the fab industry that can even build them, those companies are mostly gone

There are a couple of companies in position to put together the sort of fab facilities that are needed for this - namely Wolfspeed and Intel.  My understanding is that both pretty much have things ready to go forward once this bill gets passed.  That equipment won’t be going anywhere anytime soon, as there are all sorts of strings attached to the funds. 

But this is kind of thing is the bare minimum that’s needed for the US to even try to keep pace with the sort of investments our foreign competitors are making.  This bill isn’t going to make us completely self sufficient.  That would be next to impossible.  Rather the point is to blunt the impact a little bit for whenever the next global crisis hits.   

ive built stuff thats gone to intel in the past,  pretty sure they will want to upgrade their systems. it will take longer than most think. the other side is that all chips are not always compatible, intel will need to learn some new techniques, processes etc.  just the waffer chambers will be a nightmare as all sorts of proprietary things get done there

lousubcap

A related article from the Huffington Post-linked here:
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/mitch-mcconnell-chips-bill-reconciliation_n_62e1d8c7e4b07f83766bd964 

JohnInCarolina

fishlessman said:

JohnInCarolina said:

fishlessman said:

i hope theres some stipulation in this chips package that these companies can not sell the new equipment to a third world nation AGAIN.  i will be very surprised if that industry comes back at all. just to generate prints for new grow chambers will take years then theres slim pickings in the fab industry that can even build them, those companies are mostly gone

There are a couple of companies in position to put together the sort of fab facilities that are needed for this - namely Wolfspeed and Intel.  My understanding is that both pretty much have things ready to go forward once this bill gets passed.  That equipment won’t be going anywhere anytime soon, as there are all sorts of strings attached to the funds. 

But this is kind of thing is the bare minimum that’s needed for the US to even try to keep pace with the sort of investments our foreign competitors are making.  This bill isn’t going to make us completely self sufficient.  That would be next to impossible.  Rather the point is to blunt the impact a little bit for whenever the next global crisis hits.   

ive built stuff thats gone to intel in the past,  pretty sure they will want to upgrade their systems. it will take longer than most think. the other side is that all chips are not always compatible, intel will need to learn some new techniques, processes etc.  just the waffer chambers will be a nightmare as all sorts of proprietary things get done there

An entirely new facility is being planned.  

With regard to your comment that this will take longer than most think, how long do you think most people are thinking?  Because nobody I've spoken to in the US government or national labs thinks this is an overnight thing.  Pretty far from it, on the contrary.

fishlessman

I would say ten years would be a fantasy. Hope they order materials before they start the design because we don't have much now

JohnInCarolina

fishlessman said:

I would say ten years would be a fantasy. Hope they order materials before they start the design because we don't have much now

The facility Wolfspeed just opened in upstate NY back in April took three years to build.  Were we to see something like that replicated in several more places we'd be in a much better position than where we are now.  

fishlessman

well we better start building some new stainless mills and plead with russia for raw materials.......

JohnInCarolina

fishlessman said:

well we better start building some new stainless mills and plead with russia for raw materials.......

I would suggest maybe spending some time doing a little bit of reading on what the newer fab facilities are set to look like, fish, because you appear to mostly just be talking out of your ass.  

fishlessman

JohnInCarolina said:

fishlessman said:

well we better start building some new stainless mills and plead with russia for raw materials.......

I would suggest maybe spending some time doing a little bit of reading on what the newer fab facilities are set to look like, fish, because you appear to mostly just be talking out of your ass.  

i dont talk out of my ass, i sit on it waiting for materials to come in and for the govt to approve outsourcing different countries for simple items that can be made everywhere. go read a book

JohnInCarolina

fishlessman said:

JohnInCarolina said:

fishlessman said:

well we better start building some new stainless mills and plead with russia for raw materials.......

I would suggest maybe spending some time doing a little bit of reading on what the newer fab facilities are set to look like, fish, because you appear to mostly just be talking out of your ass.  

i dont talk out of my ass, i sit on it waiting for materials to come in and for the govt to approve outsourcing different countries for simple items that can be made everywhere. go read a book

Yes, you are right.  

fishlessman

JohnInCarolina said:

fishlessman said:

JohnInCarolina said:

fishlessman said:

well we better start building some new stainless mills and plead with russia for raw materials.......

I would suggest maybe spending some time doing a little bit of reading on what the newer fab facilities are set to look like, fish, because you appear to mostly just be talking out of your ass.  

i dont talk out of my ass, i sit on it waiting for materials to come in and for the govt to approve outsourcing different countries for simple items that can be made everywhere. go read a book

Yes, you are right.  

 
good for you 

JohnInCarolina

For those capable and interested in reading, here is some info on Intel's planned new facility:

https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/newsroom/news/intel-announces-next-us-site-landmark-investment-ohio.html

Gulfcoastguy

Let’s examine the EV credit tax portion of the bill . To save time I will link the VW ID4 forum.
https://www.vwidtalk.com/threads/possible-changes-to-us-tax-credit.7071/

The only US manufacturing this encourages is battery manufacturing in the US , or this is important, countries that the US has a free trade agreement with. We have a free trade agreement with Mexico. Recently foreign battery manufacturers have started building battery plants in the US. I suspect they will drift South of the border where Ford is already building the MachE ev and Chevy plans to build the Blazet ev.

fishlessman

JohnInCarolina said:

For those capable and interested in reading, here is some info on Intel's planned new facility:

https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/newsroom/news/intel-announces-next-us-site-landmark-investment-ohio.html

“may,” “will,” “would,” “should,” “could,” is my favorite part.  we live in a time where dishwashers are on backorder.

JohnInCarolina

Gulfcoastguy said:

Let’s examine the EV credit tax portion of the bill . To save time I will link the VW ID4 forum.
https://www.vwidtalk.com/threads/possible-changes-to-us-tax-credit.7071/

The only US manufacturing this encourages is battery manufacturing in the US , or this is important, countries that the US has a free trade agreement with. We have a free trade agreement with Mexico. Recently foreign battery manufacturers have started building battery plants in the US. I suspect they will drift South of the border where Ford is already building the MachE ev and Chevy plans to build the Blazet ev.

Was the objective of that EV credit to encourage US manufacturing?  I thought it was simply to incentivize the purchase of EVs by US consumers, so as to reduce the country's carbon footprint.  

JohnInCarolina

http://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1552754779893694464?s=20&t=tfnw1H1qS0zKmDmi3ExOzw

Gulfcoastguy

JohnInCarolina said:

Gulfcoastguy said:

Let’s examine the EV credit tax portion of the bill . To save time I will link the VW ID4 forum.
https://www.vwidtalk.com/threads/possible-changes-to-us-tax-credit.7071/

The only US manufacturing this encourages is battery manufacturing in the US , or this is important, countries that the US has a free trade agreement with. We have a free trade agreement with Mexico. Recently foreign battery manufacturers have started building battery plants in the US. I suspect they will drift South of the border where Ford is already building the MachE ev and Chevy plans to build the Blazet ev.

Was the objective of that EV credit to encourage US manufacturing?  I thought it was simply to incentivize the purchase of EVs by US consumers, so as to reduce the country's carbon footprint.  

Dislike. This is a new bill, not the old one. Try clicking the link I provided.

JohnInCarolina

Gulfcoastguy said:

JohnInCarolina said:

Gulfcoastguy said:

Let’s examine the EV credit tax portion of the bill . To save time I will link the VW ID4 forum.
https://www.vwidtalk.com/threads/possible-changes-to-us-tax-credit.7071/

The only US manufacturing this encourages is battery manufacturing in the US , or this is important, countries that the US has a free trade agreement with. We have a free trade agreement with Mexico. Recently foreign battery manufacturers have started building battery plants in the US. I suspect they will drift South of the border where Ford is already building the MachE ev and Chevy plans to build the Blazet ev.

Was the objective of that EV credit to encourage US manufacturing?  I thought it was simply to incentivize the purchase of EVs by US consumers, so as to reduce the country's carbon footprint.  

Dislike. This is a new bill, not the old one. Try clicking the link I provided.

Geez, someone is touchy today.  

All I did was ask a question aimed at clarifying things.  And I don’t get my info from some random dudes talking on a forum… (yes that is ironic).

I did my own research! and found that the EV credits are contingent on some threshold level of the battery and other car components being made in North America.  So there is obviously an incentive for manufacturers there as well.  We’ll see what comes of it.  

Gulfcoastguy

JohnInCarolina said:

Gulfcoastguy said:

JohnInCarolina said:

Gulfcoastguy said:

Let’s examine the EV credit tax portion of the bill . To save time I will link the VW ID4 forum.
https://www.vwidtalk.com/threads/possible-changes-to-us-tax-credit.7071/

The only US manufacturing this encourages is battery manufacturing in the US , or this is important, countries that the US has a free trade agreement with. We have a free trade agreement with Mexico. Recently foreign battery manufacturers have started building battery plants in the US. I suspect they will drift South of the border where Ford is already building the MachE ev and Chevy plans to build the Blazet ev.

Was the objective of that EV credit to encourage US manufacturing?  I thought it was simply to incentivize the purchase of EVs by US consumers, so as to reduce the country's carbon footprint.  

Dislike. This is a new bill, not the old one. Try clicking the link I provided.

Geez, someone is touchy today.  

All I did was ask a question aimed at clarifying things.  And I don’t get my info from some random dudes talking on a forum… (yes that is ironic).

I did my own research! and found that the EV credits are contingent on some threshold level of the battery and other car components being made in North America.  So there is obviously an incentive for manufacturers there as well.  We’ll see what comes of it.  

Any nation that we have a free trade agreement with. There is also a price cap to qualify and an income cap to qualify. 

JohnInCarolina

Gulfcoastguy said:

JohnInCarolina said:

Gulfcoastguy said:

JohnInCarolina said:

Gulfcoastguy said:

Let’s examine the EV credit tax portion of the bill . To save time I will link the VW ID4 forum.
https://www.vwidtalk.com/threads/possible-changes-to-us-tax-credit.7071/

The only US manufacturing this encourages is battery manufacturing in the US , or this is important, countries that the US has a free trade agreement with. We have a free trade agreement with Mexico. Recently foreign battery manufacturers have started building battery plants in the US. I suspect they will drift South of the border where Ford is already building the MachE ev and Chevy plans to build the Blazet ev.

Was the objective of that EV credit to encourage US manufacturing?  I thought it was simply to incentivize the purchase of EVs by US consumers, so as to reduce the country's carbon footprint.  

Dislike. This is a new bill, not the old one. Try clicking the link I provided.

Geez, someone is touchy today.  

All I did was ask a question aimed at clarifying things.  And I don’t get my info from some random dudes talking on a forum… (yes that is ironic).

I did my own research! and found that the EV credits are contingent on some threshold level of the battery and other car components being made in North America.  So there is obviously an incentive for manufacturers there as well.  We’ll see what comes of it.  

Any nation that we have a free trade agreement with. There is also a price cap to qualify and an income cap to qualify. 

The means testing applies to couples making more than $300k jointly.  I don’t have a problem with that, in fact it’s set much higher than I’d prefer.   

Gulfcoastguy

JohnInCarolina said:

Gulfcoastguy said:

JohnInCarolina said:

Gulfcoastguy said:

JohnInCarolina said:

Gulfcoastguy said:

Let’s examine the EV credit tax portion of the bill . To save time I will link the VW ID4 forum.
https://www.vwidtalk.com/threads/possible-changes-to-us-tax-credit.7071/

The only US manufacturing this encourages is battery manufacturing in the US , or this is important, countries that the US has a free trade agreement with. We have a free trade agreement with Mexico. Recently foreign battery manufacturers have started building battery plants in the US. I suspect they will drift South of the border where Ford is already building the MachE ev and Chevy plans to build the Blazet ev.

Was the objective of that EV credit to encourage US manufacturing?  I thought it was simply to incentivize the purchase of EVs by US consumers, so as to reduce the country's carbon footprint.  

Dislike. This is a new bill, not the old one. Try clicking the link I provided.

Geez, someone is touchy today.  

All I did was ask a question aimed at clarifying things.  And I don’t get my info from some random dudes talking on a forum… (yes that is ironic).

I did my own research! and found that the EV credits are contingent on some threshold level of the battery and other car components being made in North America.  So there is obviously an incentive for manufacturers there as well.  We’ll see what comes of it.  

Any nation that we have a free trade agreement with. There is also a price cap to qualify and an income cap to qualify. 

The means testing applies to couples making more than $300k jointly.  I don’t have a problem with that, in fact it’s set much higher than I’d prefer.   

Check the price cap. It basically freezes the EV prices at today’s supply constrained rates. $55,000 for a car or $80,000 for a van, suv, or truck. My ID 4 is considered a truck. Where is the incentive for the prices to ever lower?

JohnInCarolina

Gulfcoastguy said:

JohnInCarolina said:

Gulfcoastguy said:

JohnInCarolina said:

Gulfcoastguy said:

JohnInCarolina said:

Gulfcoastguy said:

Let’s examine the EV credit tax portion of the bill . To save time I will link the VW ID4 forum.
https://www.vwidtalk.com/threads/possible-changes-to-us-tax-credit.7071/

The only US manufacturing this encourages is battery manufacturing in the US , or this is important, countries that the US has a free trade agreement with. We have a free trade agreement with Mexico. Recently foreign battery manufacturers have started building battery plants in the US. I suspect they will drift South of the border where Ford is already building the MachE ev and Chevy plans to build the Blazet ev.

Was the objective of that EV credit to encourage US manufacturing?  I thought it was simply to incentivize the purchase of EVs by US consumers, so as to reduce the country's carbon footprint.  

Dislike. This is a new bill, not the old one. Try clicking the link I provided.

Geez, someone is touchy today.  

All I did was ask a question aimed at clarifying things.  And I don’t get my info from some random dudes talking on a forum… (yes that is ironic).

I did my own research! and found that the EV credits are contingent on some threshold level of the battery and other car components being made in North America.  So there is obviously an incentive for manufacturers there as well.  We’ll see what comes of it.  

Any nation that we have a free trade agreement with. There is also a price cap to qualify and an income cap to qualify. 

The means testing applies to couples making more than $300k jointly.  I don’t have a problem with that, in fact it’s set much higher than I’d prefer.   

Check the price cap. It basically freezes the EV prices at today’s supply constrained rates. $55,000 for a car or $80,000 for a van, suv, or truck. My ID 4 is considered a truck. Where is the incentive for the prices to ever lower?

I wouldn’t look at the incentives here being aimed at trying to get EV manufacturers to lower prices on some of the higher end EVs.   

I don’t have any issue with those price caps.  

JohnInCarolina

http://twitter.com/NewsHour/status/1552784032588496898?s=20&t=RFDt4z0K-TOF6sn5kGPDXw

lousubcap

Just to offer some additional info-frictionless conduit here. Joe Manchin rides again.  Where is Krysten Sinema...

https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2022/07/democrats-in-array/670990/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=atlantic-daily-newsletter&utm_content=20220728&utm_term=The Atlantic Daily

Gulfcoastguy

I always said Manchin was just holding out for the right price.

BuckeyeFork

Gulfcoastguy said:

I always said Manchin was just holding out for the right price.

You NAILED that!!!

lousubcap

Whenever in doubt-"Just follow the money".  Works across all legislative and business deals world-wide.  "What's in it for me."

lousubcap

Here's some of the fall-out from the legislative dances of the past couple of days:

"Yet, the backstory of how the Manchin-Schumer deal came together does not exactly make either Biden or CHUCK SCHUMERlook like LYNDON JOHNSON. ( See this account from Steve Clemons, who is close to Manchin, for example.) It will pain a lot of Biden stans to admit this fact: Manchin and LARRY SUMMERS had more to do with reviving the most progressive environmental and tax legislation in decades than the president did.

REPUBLICANS IN… DISARRAY? — Meanwhile, the GOP ended the week in a fit of pique.

Speaking for many in his party, especially in the Senate, Sen. JOHN KENNEDY (R-La.), said this about Democrats unveiling the reconciliation bill right after the Senate passed CHIPS+: “We got our ass kicked. It’s just that simple … Looks to me like we got rinky-doo’d. That’s a Louisiana word for ‘screwed.’” More from Burgess Everett and Olivia Beavers  

That fury was followed by House Republicans trying to kill CHIPS+, a tactic they admitted was about the Manchin flip, and Senate Republicans — somewhat inexplicably — filibustering a bipartisan veterans bill, a move they denied had anything to do with Manchin’s move.

Instead, Senate Minority Leader MITCH MCCONNELL, who described the Manchin-Schumer deal as a “giant package of huge new job-killing tax hikes, Green New Deal craziness that will kill American energy, and prescription drug socialism,” swore that the turn on the “burn pit” bill was about Schumer reneging on a promise to allow a vote on an amendment from Sen. PAT TOOMEY (R-Pa.).

The WSJ wasn’t buying that : “Republican anger blocked a separate piece of legislation. Soon after the announcement of the Manchin deal, the Senate unexpectedly failed to advance a bipartisan bill to provide healthcare to veterans exposed to burn pits.”"

dmchicago

The WSJ wasn’t buying that : “Republican anger blocked a separate piece of legislation. Soon after the announcement of the Manchin deal, the Senate unexpectedly failed to advance a bipartisan bill to provide healthcare to veterans exposed to burn pits.”"

If the democrats were good with messaging, they would turn this into a freight train of an issue and drive it straight through to November. 

But they aren’t. So it will probably fade from the news cycle in two days.