OT subject but worth a main-stream read- OT News Feeds...

JohnInCarolina

It was never really about NATO in the first place.  Anyone who has paid attention to Putin's actions (as opposed to his words) over the years saw that clearly.  

Gulfcoastguy

Of course, it’s a combination of ego and greed/thievery. 

nolaegghead

Sure, NATO gets a couple more countries, maybe Putin will sweep up France if Le Pen wins.  Basically all the countries in Europe and Asia will align with either the social democracies or the strong man. 

JohnInCarolina

http://twitter.com/alexstubb/status/1526541715963793410?s=20&t=y2savtAfH8Y7kjQjLTksmg

HeavyG

Gulfcoastguy said:

However Sweden said that they didn’t want nukes or other NATO forces based in their country. NATO ala carte?

I believe there are only about five (out of 30-ish) NATO members that host nukes that aren't their own.

Apart from NATO HQ in Belgium there are only a few members (most notably Germany and Italy) that routinely (joint military exercises don't count ) host any significant number of troops. So Sweden's stance doesn't seem outlandish.

lousubcap

Tuesday Russia-Ukraine update:

"Ukrainian forces have pushed Russian troops north and east of Kharkiv back close to the Russian border amid heavy fighting, the Pentagon said yesterday. “They are regaining ground and territory that the Russians had occupied north of the city,” Pentagon press secretary John F. Kirby said of Ukrainian troops.  A senior Defense Department official also said that a Ukrainian counteroffensive had driven Russian forces to within three or four kilometers of the Russian border. Eric Schmitt reports for the New York Times. 

Vladimir Putin has become so personally involved in the Ukraine war that he is making operational and tactical decisions “at the level of a colonel or brigadier,” western military sources have said. The Russian president is helping determine the movement of forces in the Donbas, and continues to work closely with Gen Valery Gerasimov, the commander of the Russian armed forces, they added. Dan Sabbagh reports for the Guardian.

Big-picture Q: why is Russia's military performing so poorly in Ukraine? Neil MacFarquhar of the New York Times offered this answer on Monday: "[T]o Russia's detriment, much of the military culture and learned behavior of the Soviet era endures: inflexibility in command structure, corruption in military spending, and concealing casualty figures and repeating the mantra that everything is going according to plan.""

Botch

I'm wondering, with the final surrender of the holdouts in the Mariupol steel mill (who have been bused into Russia and we'll probably never see/hear from again), if putin will use this as his "declaration of victory" and cease operations.  
I'm also curious as to why we haven't heard much about gerasimov, the "butcher of Syria"; probably because Butcher putin has been micromanaging things now.  
 
We've got to figure out, as a species, how to prevent a single doddering old man with an enormous ego and mental illness (chi, un, trump, putin, erdogan, et al) from destroying so much that civilization has built up, from displacing millions of human beings from their homes and even their countries, from killing so many millions.  WTFF.  

dmchicago

That’s a jillionaire question in a dollar store checkout line, Botch. 

lousubcap

Wednesday Russia-Ukraine update:

"Ukrainian military officials say the Russians have stepped up their efforts to destroy Ukrainian defenses in the Luhansk region, bringing in 15 helicopters to reinforce the offensive. Ukrainian defenses around the cities of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk remain under intense pressure from artillery bombardments and air attacks, which have also increased in villages further south, such as Vrubivka. Tim Lister reports for CNN. 

In attempting to overcome Ukrainian resistance, Russia has made significant use of auxiliary personnel, including Chechen Forces, likely consisting of several thousand fighters primarily concentrated in Mariupol and the Luhansk region. These forces likely consist of both individual volunteers and National Guard units, which are routinely dedicated to securing the rule of Chechen Republic Head, Ramadan Kadyrov. The deployment of such disparate personnel demonstrates Russia’s significant resourcing problems in Ukraine and is likely to hamper their operations, according to a U.K. Ministry of Defense intelligence update. 

Ukraine is seeking a prisoner swap with Russia to return some 260 fighters from Mariupol who left the embattled steel plant under a negotiated surrender, but Russian officials are signaling that may not be guaranteed. Vyacheslav Volodin, speaker of the Russian State Duma, said Ukrainian “Nazi criminals” should not be a part of any prisoner exchange, while Russian law enforcement officials said they would investigate the Ukrainian troops for participation in war crimes. Russia’s prosecutor general has also asked a top court to designate the Azov Regiment — whose fighters helped defend the Mariupol complex — a terrorist group. Andrew Jeong reports for the Washington Post. "

lousubcap

Here's more on Russia-Ukraine:

"By the way: Ukraine says Russia is stealing its grain, vegetables, and sunflower seedsand shipping it all overland—with military ground escort—to Russian-occupied Crimea, according to the Wall Street Journal. Indeed, "In the past week, Egypt has turned away two Russian ships that were carrying stolen Ukrainian wheat, Ruslan Nechai, Ukraine's chargé d'affaires in Egypt, told The Wall Street Journal on Monday."

Poland and Lithuania have stepped up in the hopes of helping export Ukraine's non-occupied farm products to markets outside Kyiv since the Russian navy is still blockading the Black Sea; but those three-country negotiations aren't finalized yet. 

America's intel chief says Vladimir Putin is ready for a "prolonged" war in Ukraine.Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines said as much to lawmakers Tuesday in a hearing on worldwide threats. What's more, she said, "The current trend increases the likelihood that President Putin will turn to more drastic means." And in an echo of a line we've noted many times since March, Haines said she thinks Putin "is probably counting on U.S. and E.U. resolve to weaken as food shortages, inflation, and energy shortages get worse."

New: The Kremlin is seemingly working to annex another part of Ukraine, this time in southern Kherson, which is almost 350 miles south of Kyiv. Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov told reporters Wednesday that "the residents of Kherson should decide" if they want to become part of Russia via a referendum, according to state-run RIA. 

An advisor to Ukraine's president replied sternly on Twitter, saying, "The invaders may ask to join even Mars or Jupiter. The Ukrainian army will liberate Kherson, no matter what games with words they play."

Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global Public Square team, compiled by Global Briefing editor Chris Good

 Froma Fareed Zakaria:

 May 17, 2022

Boosterism Aside, Ukraine Is in Dire Straits

As has been noted widely, the war in Ukraine is going badly for Russia.
 
Since Moscow refocused its warfighting energies on Ukraine’s east and south, the current phase of the war has featured blunders and “achingly slow” progress by Russian forces, just as the last one did, The Economist writes. Russian President Vladimir Putin may soon be forced to choose between doubling down, accepting a negotiated peace, or escalating, former senior US ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad writes for The National Interest.
 
But the war is going badly for Ukraine, too, Suriya Jayanti writes for Time.
 
Since invading on Feb. 24, Russia has approximately doubled the Ukrainian land it controls (even factoring in its preexisting hold on Crimea), Jayanti writes. Ukrainian cities and towns lie in rubble; civilians and many soldiers have been killed. “Economically, Ukraine is surviving, but only that,” Jayanti adds. “The sanctions on Russia that are expected to cause a less than 7% contraction in GDP compare rather unfavorably to the 45-50% GDP collapse Ukraine is facing.”
 
Ukraine has vastly exceeded expectations of a Russian rout. “We love an underdog,” Jayanti writes. But “(t)he fact that Kyiv has not fallen and Russian troops have retreated to the east masks that Ukraine is in worse shape than portrayed in the media.”"

lousubcap

Thursday Russia-Ukraine war update:

"In recent weeks, Russia has fired senior commanders who are considered to have performed poorly during the opening stages of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the U.K. Ministry of Defense has said in its intelligence update. Lieutenant General Serhiy Kisel, who commanded the elite 1st Guards Tank Army, has been suspended for his failure to capture Kharkiv. Vice-Admiral Igor Osipov, who commanded Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, has also likely been suspended following the sinking of the cruiser Moskva in April. A culture of scape-goating will likely place further strain on Russia’s centralised model of command and control, as officers increasingly seek to avoid culpability by deferring key decisions.

Russian commanders, stymied by Ukrainian resistance and organizational problems, have shifted toward smaller unit attacks, a Pentagon official has said. These smaller units have also scaled down their objectives, focusing on certain towns, villages and even crossroads. However, Russian troops have made “appreciable gains” between the southern cities of Kherson and Mykolaiv toward the Black Sea and west of Donetsk, the official added. Alex Horton reports for the Washington Post.  

Russian troops are increasingly refusing to take part in combat in Ukraine, the Ukrainian defense ministry's main intelligence directorate has said. In a post on the Telegram, it said several units of the 70th Guards Motorised Regiment have openly refused to take part in the war and demanded that they be returned to the areas where they are normally deployed. BBC News reports. 

Russian forces trying to break through to Sloviansk, in eastern Ukraine's Donetsk region, have suffered losses and retreated, according to reports by the Ukrainian military. Despite artillery and missile attacks by Russian forces on a wide front over the past 24 hours, there are no signs they have taken new territory. Tim Lister reports for CNN. "

lousubcap

Friday Russia-Ukraine update:  (sources go quiet on the weekend)

"Ukrainian military officials have reported that some Russian troops withdrawn from the Kharkiv region have redeployed to western Donetsk, according to the latest assessment by the Institute for the Study of War. The Ukrainian General Staff said that 260 servicemen withdrawn from the Kharkiv region arrived to replace the significant combat losses suffered by the 107th Motorized Rifle Battalion near Donetsk. The Ukrainian Military Directorate intercepted a Russian serviceman’s call suggesting that some of the 400 servicemen from the Kharkiv region who had arrived elsewhere in Donbas were shocked by the intensity of the fighting there compared with what they had experienced in Kharkiv. 

The Russian-installed governor of occupied Kherson in southern Ukraine has said the region will soon be fully integrated into Russia. Volodymyr Saldo, who was installed by Russian forces after they took control of the area in early March, wrote on Telegram that it would become the “Kherson region of the Russian Federation.” BBC News reports. 

In a sign of Russia's urgent need to bolster its war effort in Ukraine, Russia’s parliament is considering a bill to allow Russians over 40 and foreigners over 30 to sign up for the military. The website of the State Duma, parliament's lower house, said the move would enable the military to utilise the skills of older professionals. "For the use of high-precision weapons, the operation of weapons and military equipment, highly professional specialists are needed. Experience shows that they become such by the age of 40–45," it said. Mark Trevelyan reports for Reuters. 

As many as 1,700 Ukrainian soldiers are likely to have surrendered from the Mariupol Azovstal steel plant, according to the U.K. Defense Ministry’s latest intelligence update. An unknown number of Ukrainian forces remain inside the factory. Once Russia has secured Mariupol, it is likely they will move their forces to the Donbas. However staunch Ukrainian resistance in Mariupol since the start of the war means Russian forces in the area must be re-equipped before they can be redeployed. This can be a lengthy process. 

U.S. officials are considering arming the Ukrainian military with advanced anti-ship missiles to help defeat Russia’s naval blockade. However, current and former U.S. officials have cited roadblocks to sending more powerful weapons to Ukraine, including lengthy training requirements, difficulties maintaining equipment, and concerns U.S. weaponry could be captured by Russian forces. There are also concerns that the provision of more powerful weapons could escalate the conflict. Mike Stone reports for Reuters.

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley spoke with his Russian counterpart yesterday, the first such conversation between the two since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Milley and chief of the Russian general staff, Valery Gerasimov, “discussed several security-related issues of concern and agreed to keep the lines of communication open,” Joint Staff spokesperson Col. Dave Butler said in a readout of the conversation. Ellen Mitchell reports for The Hill. "

lousubcap

This merits posting:
"A Russian senator went on state TV Thursday to offer a new explanation for why Ukraine is performing so well against the Russians: Because it's made up of "Russian soldiers and officers with exactly our mentality," as the BBC's Francis Scarr flagged in a video on Twitter. Quipped U.S. journalist Michael Weiss in reply: "From 'Nazis' to 'just like us' in three short months." (And the former Russian commander who uncharacteristically cautioned viewers against cheering Russian soldiers to their apparent demise in Ukraine? He's since changed his tone after making international headlines this week.)"

lousubcap

Some light reading for Sunday:

"‘The Russian Military’s People Problem’

Various news outlets have reported on difficulties faced by Russian loved ones in ascertaining the fates of soldiers, but at Foreign Affairs, Dara Massicot writes that Russia’s military has a much larger “people problem.” Russia sent soldiers to Ukraine without clueing them into what they would face, has sometimes failed to provide adequate medical care, has given troops outdated food rations, has sent them into Chernobyl and its epochally irradiated surroundings without protection, and has generally shown itself not to care too much about troops’ well-being, Massicot writes. 
 
The results have been predictable. Broken chains of command, battlefield ineffectiveness, general disorder, and—in the case of Bucha—atrocities have followed, as Massicot argues it.

Putin’s War and a ‘Coming Food Catastrophe’

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war has shocked global food supplies, The Economist writes in a cover story that notes a 53% increase in global wheat prices this year and predicts a “coming food catastrophe.”
 
“Russia and Ukraine supply 28% of globally traded wheat, 29% of the barley, 15% of the maize and 75% of the sunflower oil,” the magazine writes. “Russia and Ukraine contribute about half the cereals imported by Lebanon and Tunisia; for Libya and Egypt the figure is two-thirds. Ukraine’s food exports provide the calories to feed 400m people. The war is disrupting these supplies because Ukraine has mined its waters to deter an assault, and Russia is blockading the port of Odessa.” "

lousubcap

Monday Russia-Ukraine update:

"Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak has ruled out a ceasefire with Russia, saying that Kyiv would not accept any deal with Moscow that involved ceding territory. Podolyak said making concessions would backfire on Ukraine because Russia would hit back harder after any break in fighting. Tom Balmforth reports for Reuters. 

In the first three months of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Russia has probably lost the same number of troops as the Soviet Union did during its nine-year war in Afghanistan that began in December 1979, the U.K.’s Ministry of Defense has said.  The death toll is a result of “poor low-level tactics, limited air cover” and “a lack of flexibility,” the ministry said in an intelligence update, adding that Russian commanders are prone to repeating mistakes.

Russia is likely experiencing a shortage of appropriate reconnaissance Uncrewed Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), which it has attempted to use to identify targets to be struck by combat jets or artillery, the U.K.’s Defense Ministry has said. Russia is likely experiencing a shortage of appropriate reconnaissance UAVs, which is exacerbated by limitations in its domestic manufacturing capacity resulting from sanctions, according to an intelligence update.  

The war in Ukraine will turn into a long and bloody “slog,” retired Adm. Mike Mullen, former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, predicted yesterday. “I think we’re in for a long one,” Mullen said on ABC’s “This Week With George Stephanopoulos,” referring to the continuing battle between Ukrainian and Russian forces over eastern Ukraine. “It’s going to be bloody. It’s going to be visible. It’s going to be what war is.” Carolyn Y. Johnson reports for the Washington Post.

The leader of Ukraine's breakaway Donetsk People's Republic has said that the fighters who surrendered at the Azovstal steel will face trial in the separatist region. "The prisoners from Azovstal are being held on the territory of the Donetsk People's Republic," Interfax news agency quoted Denis Pushilin as saying. "Organising an international tribunal on the republic's territory is also planned." Reuters reports. "

lousubcap

Worth the read:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/05/why-ukraine-must-defeat-putin-russia/629940/?utm_source=nextdraft&utm_medium=email

JohnInCarolina

mainstream news but interesting:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/23/europe/ukraine-us-soldier-irpin-intl-cmd/index.html

lousubcap

Tuesday Russia-Ukraine update:

"The city of Sievierodonetsk on the east bank of the Siverskiy Donets river and its twin Lysychansk on the west bank have become a pivotal battlefield in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with Russian forces today launching an all-out assault to encircle troops there. “The enemy has focused its efforts on carrying out an offensive in order to encircle Lysychansk and Sievierodonetsk,” said Serhiy Gaidai, governor of Luhansk, where the two cities are among the last territory still held by Ukraine. Pavel Polityuk reports for Reuters. 

CNN has spoken to a Russian officer who has resigned in protest over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - potentially one of many as Russian troops struggle with low morale and heavy losses in Ukraine. The officer and his comrades were unaware of Russia’s invasion when it was launched, as no news was passed to them, and they were out of touch with the outside world, the officer told CNN. When they themselves were ordered into Ukraine, some of the soldiers refused outright, he added, bolstering reports by the U.K.’s Intelligence, Cyber and Security Agency that some Russian soldiers have refused to carry out orders. Uliana Pavlova reports for CNN. 

A Russian diplomat, Boris Bondarev, has quit his job in protest of the "bloody, witless" war "unleashed by Putin against Ukraine.” Bondarev, whose LinkedIn says he worked at the Russian mission to the U.N. in Geneva, told the BBC he knew his decision to speak out may mean the Kremlin now considers him a traitor. But he stood by his statement, made in a letter posted on social media, which described the war as "a crime against the Ukrainian people" and "the people of Russia.” Flora Durry reports for BBC News. "

Edit for the below add:

"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Kyiv is ready for a prisoner exchange with Russia "even tomorrow," as he called on allies to continue to put pressure on Moscow.  "The exchange of people — this is a humanitarian matter today and a very political decision that depends on the support of many states," Zelensky said yesterday during his address to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Josh Pennington and Alex Stambaugh report for CNN. 

Russia's theft of Ukrainian grain appears to be increasing as it continues its war on the country, according to new satellite photos of the Crimean port of Sevastopol. The satellite images show two Russia-flagged bulk carrier ships docking and loading up with what is believed to be stolen Ukrainian grain. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has accused Russia of "gradually stealing" Ukrainian food products and trying to sell them. Alex Marquardt and Tim Lister reports for CNN. "

Botch

^^^ Saw an interview a couple days ago; the russian prisoners are terrified of a prisoner swap, said they get treated as traitors and failures and preferred to be jailed in Ukraine.  
And the above also demonstrates how dangerous a muzzled press can be.  

JohnInCarolina

I just wonder when we're going to reach the point where Putin actually decides to cut his losses.  My concern is that his will to perpetuate this is much greater than the West's interest in continuing to pump money and weapons to Ukraine, as well as continue to sanction Russia.  This thing could stretch on for years.

nolaegghead

JohnInCarolina said:

I just wonder when we're going to reach the point where Putin actually decides to cut his losses.  My concern is that his will to perpetuate this is much greater than the West's interest in continuing to pump money and weapons to Ukraine, as well as continue to sanction Russia.  This thing could stretch on for years.

Putin is spending a relatively big chunk of GDP on this war and pushing the patience of even those Russians who eat up all the state media propaganda.  Whereas the western countries representing most of the developed world are, relatively speaking, throwing a tiny fraction of theirs into Ukraine.  Also, not many complaints from the chickenhawks who support the industrial military complex.

Sadly, the Ukrainians are on the losing end of this. 

As cities are increasingly destroyed to the point it may be better to rebuild from scratch rather than fix the aging cold-war soviet buildings and infrastructure, they may emerge at one point better than ever, but that day is well off in the future. 

fishlessman

he is not going to cut his losses and even if he said he was going too, would anybody believe him,  trust him.

dmchicago

Unpopular opinion. Kissinger is right. 

Edit:

Give up the Donbas region for a **** ton of money for the rebuild. 

And Ukraine joins NATO. 

JohnInCarolina

dmchicago said:

Unpopular opinion. Kissinger is right. 

Edit:

Give up the Donbas region for a **** ton of money for the rebuild. 

And Ukraine joins NATO. 

Has to be agonizing for Ukraine.   Imagine us having to give up Texas to Mexico.  I mean...  it's only one state, right?  

dmchicago

JohnInCarolina said:

dmchicago said:

Unpopular opinion. Kissinger is right. 

Edit:

Give up the Donbas region for a **** ton of money for the rebuild. 

And Ukraine joins NATO. 

Has to be agonizing for Ukraine.   Imagine us having to give up Texas to Mexico.  I mean...  it's only one state, right?  

Right. I get that and my ramblings on a BBQ forum mean nothing.

But Russia controls that area anyway, afaik.

We can't fund the war forever.

And I get that Putin shouldn't be "rewarded" for this nonsense.

Better a comrade takes him out and cooler heads prevail.

Gulfcoastguy

Putin either wins or he dies. Since he has had several visits from a surgeon who specializes in thyroid cancer the die option seems more likely. Or he could commit suicide by shooting himself ten times in the back. Personally I hope he catches Monkey Pox and passes it onto his girlfriend. Meanwhile thousands of people in the Middle East and Africa are going to starve to death.

Gulfcoastguy

Just a light hearted ewetube video

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Q6ZL90lQIXY

lousubcap

Wednesday Russia-Ukraine update:

"Russian forces launched offensives on towns in eastern Ukraine today, with constant mortar bombardment destroying several houses and killing civilians, Ukrainian officials have said. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's office said the Russians launched an offensive on Sievierodonetsk early today and the town was under constant fire from mortars. Luhansk regional governor Serhiy Gaidai said six civilians were killed and at least eight wounded, most near bomb shelters, in Sievierodonetsk. Pavel Polityuk and Max Hunder report for Reuters. 

Russian forces have likely given up on planning a single large encirclement of Ukrainian troops in the country’s east, analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in their latest assessment. Although their forces have secured more terrain in the past week than earlier in May, this has been achieved by scaling back their objectives, the ISW said — largely abandoning operations around Izyum and concentrating on key front-line towns. Overall, Russia’s performance “remains poor.” 

Workers digging through the rubble of an apartment building in Mariupol have found 200 bodies in the basement, Ukrainian authorities said yesterday.The authorities did not say where the bodies were discovered, but the number of victims makes it one of the deadliest known attacks of the war. Elena Becatoros, Oleksandr Stashevskyi and Ricardo Mazalan report for AP. 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will speak only directly to Russian President Vladimir Putin, not via intermediaries, for peace negotiations, he said at the World Economic Forum today. Zelenskyy also said his country would fight until it has recovered all of its territory, as Russia presses on with an offensive in the south and east of Ukraine. If Putin “understands reality,” he added, there could be a diplomatic solution to the conflict. Reuters reports. 

Newly declassified U.S. intelligence shows that a Russian naval blockade has halted maritime trade at Ukrainian ports, in what world leaders call a deliberate attack on the global food supply chain. Russia’s navy now effectively controls all traffic in the northern third of the Black Sea, making it unsafe for commercial shipping, according to a U.S. government document. Shane Harris reports for the Washington Post. "

lousubcap

Thursday Russia-Ukraine update:

"Russia shelled more than 40 towns in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region, authorities said today, as Moscow's forces sought to surround Ukrainian troops, outnumbering them in some places. Russia has poured thousands of troops into the region, attacking from three sides in an attempt to encircle Ukrainian forces holding out in the city of Sievierodonetsk and its twin, Lysychansk. Their fall would leave the whole of Luhansk province under Russian control. Pavel Polityuk and Max Hunder report for Reuters. 

Russian forces were unsuccessful in several of their overnight assaults and troops retreated with losses from the village of Zolota Nyva after a failed attack, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces says in its latest update. Russia was also unsuccessful in attacking the cities of Mykolayivka and Kryvyy Rih, it says, adding troops have been focusing their efforts on taking full control of the town of Lyman in the eastern Donetsk region of Ukraine. BBC Newsreports. 

Police in Lysychansk are burying the bodies of civilians in mass graves, Luhansk regional governor Serhiy Gaidai has said. About 150 people have been buried in a grave in one district, Haidai said, adding that the families of the people buried there will be able to carry out a reburial after the war. BBC Newsreports. 

The eastern Ukrainian city of Severodonetsk has been under “constant fire” for the past week and a half, according to the head of the local military administration Oleksandr Stryuk. Some 90% of housing has been damaged by the fighting, Stryuk said.  About 12,000-13,000 people are still thought to be in the city - many of them sheltering in basements. BBC News reports. 

lousubcap

A good read:
https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2022/05/what-russias-invasion-ukraine-means-middle-east/367418/