About that $15

JohnInCarolina

Nope:

HeavyG

Not this route anyway.

JohnInCarolina

HeavyG said:

Not this route anyway.

There’s another one that’s viable?  Not anytime soon.

fishlessman

when it passes i can see mass doubling it to 27 minimum, its already 13.50

JohnInCarolina

fishlessman said:

when it passes i can see mass doubling it to 27 minimum, its already 13.50

It's not going to pass.  It's not even going to come up for a vote anytime soon.  That's the point of the thread.  

fishlessman

JohnInCarolina said:

fishlessman said:

when it passes i can see mass doubling it to 27 minimum, its already 13.50

It's not going to pass.  It's not even going to come up for a vote anytime soon.  That's the point of the thread.  

theres almost 4 years for it to happen so we will have to see how that plays out. i kinda think this was a forced bartering technique anyways

JohnInCarolina

fishlessman said:

JohnInCarolina said:

fishlessman said:

when it passes i can see mass doubling it to 27 minimum, its already 13.50

It's not going to pass.  It's not even going to come up for a vote anytime soon.  That's the point of the thread.  

theres almost 4 years for it to happen so we will have to see how that plays out. i kinda think this was a forced bartering technique anyways

There are possibly only 2 years.  A new Congress will come in after the 2022 elections.  The balance of the House or the Senate could easily swing.  

The last time the minimum raise was raised, in 2009, the Democrats held both houses and the White House, and they had a supermajority in the Senate.  We are unlikely to see comparable conditions anytime soon.  

fishlessman

JohnInCarolina said:

fishlessman said:

JohnInCarolina said:

fishlessman said:

when it passes i can see mass doubling it to 27 minimum, its already 13.50

It's not going to pass.  It's not even going to come up for a vote anytime soon.  That's the point of the thread.  

theres almost 4 years for it to happen so we will have to see how that plays out. i kinda think this was a forced bartering technique anyways

There are possibly only 2 years.  A new Congress will come in after the 2022 elections.  The balance of the House or the Senate could easily swing.  

The last time the minimum raise was raised, in 2009, the Democrats held both houses and the White House, and they had a supermajority in the Senate.  We are unlikely to see comparable conditions anytime soon.  

if they could just work together.....

fishlessman

and now we have plan B

HeavyG

JohnInCarolina said:

HeavyG said:

Not this route anyway.

There’s another one that’s viable?  Not anytime soon.

Was this path ever really viable? Since Dem Senators Manchin and Sinema said they would not vote in favor of raising the minimum wage to $15 would the relief bill have actually passed without any votes from the R side?

The parliamentarian may have actually done Biden a favor. His real priority is getting a relief bill passed by mid-March. Removing the $15 removes one major R deal breaker.

I think there's a lot the Dems could do. Schumer could fire the parliamentarian - it's not without precedent by the R's - but he has already said that he wouldn't do that. Quelle surprise, we already knew Schumer is no McConnell (which is unfortunate).

Work with the House to develop a clean bill that just addresses the minimum wage hike. Perhaps adjust the timeline for full implementation - stretch it out a couple more years rather than $15 by 2025. Perhaps dropping the $15 to $13 would sway enough R's (and recalcitrant D's) to vote in favor.

Etc., etc., etc.

Anyway, they need to keep making their moves now cuz you're right - in 2022 both chambers could change hands (and at least one of them - the Senate - likely will).

On the bright side we get to see Trump speak this weekend at CPAC. Should be fun. I really miss Twitter Trump.

https://twitter.com/BradMossEsq/status/1365144253907795971

https://twitter.com/mikefarb1/status/1365239700068384772

LOL

JohnInCarolina

HeavyG said:

JohnInCarolina said:

HeavyG said:

Not this route anyway.

There’s another one that’s viable?  Not anytime soon.

Was this path ever really viable? Since Dem Senators Manchin and Sinema said they would not vote in favor of raising the minimum wage to $15 would the relief bill have actually passed without any votes from the R side?

The parliamentarian may have actually done Biden a favor. His real priority is getting a relief bill passed by mid-March. Removing the $15 removes one major R deal breaker.

I think there's a lot the Dems could do. Schumer could fire the parliamentarian - it's not without precedent by the R's - but he has already said that he wouldn't do that. Quelle surprise, we already knew Schumer is no McConnell (which is unfortunate).

Work with the House to develop a clean bill that just addresses the minimum wage hike. Perhaps adjust the timeline for full implementation - stretch it out a couple more years rather than $15 by 2025. Perhaps dropping the $15 to $13 would sway enough R's (and recalcitrant D's) to vote in favor.

Etc., etc., etc.

Anyway, they need to keep making their moves now cuz you're right - in 2022 both chambers could change hands (and at least one of them - the Senate - likely will).

I bolded those two passages because they're actually in contradiction.

It wouldn't make much of any sense for Schumer to nuke the parliamentarian if he doesn't actually have the votes to pass the bill, and as you've pointed out upstream, they likely don't.  

I asked you if there was another path that was viable, because you seemed to be indicating there was with your "not this route".  I may have just misread you.

My own view is that this was their best shot at raising the minimum wage, period.  It may not have ever happened, even had the parliamentarian ruled in their favor.   Just because it was their best shot doesn't mean it was necessarily likely.  

HeavyG

JohnInCarolina said:

HeavyG said:

JohnInCarolina said:

HeavyG said:

Not this route anyway.

There’s another one that’s viable?  Not anytime soon.

Was this path ever really viable? Since Dem Senators Manchin and Sinema said they would not vote in favor of raising the minimum wage to $15 would the relief bill have actually passed without any votes from the R side?

The parliamentarian may have actually done Biden a favor. His real priority is getting a relief bill passed by mid-March. Removing the $15 removes one major R deal breaker.

I think there's a lot the Dems could do. Schumer could fire the parliamentarian - it's not without precedent by the R's - but he has already said that he wouldn't do that. Quelle surprise, we already knew Schumer is no McConnell (which is unfortunate).

Work with the House to develop a clean bill that just addresses the minimum wage hike. Perhaps adjust the timeline for full implementation - stretch it out a couple more years rather than $15 by 2025. Perhaps dropping the $15 to $13 would sway enough R's (and recalcitrant D's) to vote in favor.

Etc., etc., etc.

Anyway, they need to keep making their moves now cuz you're right - in 2022 both chambers could change hands (and at least one of them - the Senate - likely will).

I bolded those two passages because they're actually in contradiction.

It wouldn't make much of any sense for Schumer to nuke the parliamentarian if he doesn't actually have the votes to pass the bill, and as you've pointed out upstream, they likely don't.  

I asked you if there was another path that was viable, because you seemed to be indicating there was with your "not this route".  I may have just misread you.

My own view is that this was their best shot at raising the minimum wage, period.  It may not have ever happened, even had the parliamentarian ruled in their favor.   Just because it was their best shot doesn't mean it was necessarily likely.  

I agree that would seem contradictory for this particular case.

What I was trying to convey is that basically the Dems/Schumer continue to bring a knife to a gunfight (remember those fun times  about 5 years ago when Schumers own constituents protested outside his NY home carrying skeletons and signs telling Schumer to get a spine).

I disagree that this was their best chance. I think they chose this route because they thought it would be their easiest route.

Now we'll get to see just how seriously the D's are about actually wanting the increase to $15. If red state and Trump stronghold Florida can vote, as they did last year, to increase their state minimum wage to $15 by 2026 how hard could this quest be?

JohnInCarolina

HeavyG said:

I disagree that this was their best chance. I think they chose this route because they thought it would be their easiest route.

OK, so... what do you imagine is their best chance?  

Anything that is not reconciliation requires 60 votes in the Senate.  

Gulfcoastguy

HeavyG said:

JohnInCarolina said:

HeavyG said:

JohnInCarolina said:

HeavyG said:

Not this route anyway.

There’s another one that’s viable?  Not anytime soon.

Was this path ever really viable? Since Dem Senators Manchin and Sinema said they would not vote in favor of raising the minimum wage to $15 would the relief bill have actually passed without any votes from the R side?

The parliamentarian may have actually done Biden a favor. His real priority is getting a relief bill passed by mid-March. Removing the $15 removes one major R deal breaker.

I think there's a lot the Dems could do. Schumer could fire the parliamentarian - it's not without precedent by the R's - but he has already said that he wouldn't do that. Quelle surprise, we already knew Schumer is no McConnell (which is unfortunate).

Work with the House to develop a clean bill that just addresses the minimum wage hike. Perhaps adjust the timeline for full implementation - stretch it out a couple more years rather than $15 by 2025. Perhaps dropping the $15 to $13 would sway enough R's (and recalcitrant D's) to vote in favor.

Etc., etc., etc.

Anyway, they need to keep making their moves now cuz you're right - in 2022 both chambers could change hands (and at least one of them - the Senate - likely will).

I bolded those two passages because they're actually in contradiction.

It wouldn't make much of any sense for Schumer to nuke the parliamentarian if he doesn't actually have the votes to pass the bill, and as you've pointed out upstream, they likely don't.  

I asked you if there was another path that was viable, because you seemed to be indicating there was with your "not this route".  I may have just misread you.

My own view is that this was their best shot at raising the minimum wage, period.  It may not have ever happened, even had the parliamentarian ruled in their favor.   Just because it was their best shot doesn't mean it was necessarily likely.  

I agree that would seem contradictory for this particular case.

What I was trying to convey is that basically the Dems/Schumer continue to bring a knife to a gunfight (remember those fun times  about 5 years ago when Schumers own constituents protested outside his NY home carrying skeletons and signs telling Schumer to get a spine).

I disagree that this was their best chance. I think they chose this route because they thought it would be their easiest route.

Now we'll get to see just how seriously the D's are about actually wanting the increase to $15. If red state and Trump stronghold Florida can vote, as they did last year, to increase their state minimum wage to $15 by 2026 how hard could this quest be?

And any other state is free to do so. 

HeavyG

JohnInCarolina said:

HeavyG said:

I disagree that this was their best chance. I think they chose this route because they thought it would be their easiest route.

OK, so... what do you imagine is their best chance?  

Anything that is not reconciliation requires 60 votes in the Senate.  

The House and Senate R's made it quite clear last summer that they would not vote to approve the $15 wage. The Senate D's didn't even have the 50 votes they needed to bring in the tiebreaker Harris. So this whole scenario with the $15 wage hike was DOA from the start.

TWo R Senators - Romney and Cotton - are supportive of an increase to $10 at the moment. Kinda funny Cotton supports a $10 min. wage when in his own state the min. wage is already at $11. I'm guessing that most R Senators do actually agree that the min. wage needs to be hiked but $15 is just too high. So...let the haggling begin.

The best chance the D's have of passing any increase in the minimum wage is to find that magic number (my guess is that number is 12 or maybe 13) that can win over enough R Senators for a straight up, clean bill, stand alone minimum wage bill this autumn or early next year.

The R's know that while they are likely to win back the House and also possibly win back the Senate in 2022 I'd bet there are enough R's in both chambers that would like to be able show their constituents that they voted to help many of them out by bumping the minimum wage to get this done.

JohnInCarolina

HeavyG said:

JohnInCarolina said:

HeavyG said:

I disagree that this was their best chance. I think they chose this route because they thought it would be their easiest route.

OK, so... what do you imagine is their best chance?  

Anything that is not reconciliation requires 60 votes in the Senate.  

The House and Senate R's made it quite clear last summer that they would not vote to approve the $15 wage. The Senate D's didn't even have the 50 votes they needed to bring in the tiebreaker Harris. So this whole scenario with the $15 wage hike was DOA from the start.

TWo R Senators - Romney and Cotton - are supportive of an increase to $10 at the moment. Kinda funny Cotton supports a $10 min. wage when in his own state the min. wage is already at $11. I'm guessing that most R Senators do actually agree that the min. wage needs to be hiked but $15 is just too high. So...let the haggling begin.

The best chance the D's have of passing any increase in the minimum wage is to find that magic number (my guess is that number is 12 or maybe 13) that can win over enough R Senators for a straight up, clean bill, stand alone minimum wage bill this autumn or early next year.

The R's know that while they are likely to win back the House and also possibly win back the Senate in 2022 I'd bet there are enough R's in both chambers that would like to be able show their constituents that they voted to help many of them out by bumping the minimum wage to get this done.

OK, so that's reasonable - the idea that they might pass an increase of a minimum wage, perhaps to $10 or $11, some compromise below $15.  I still don't quite see getting ten Republicans for that, but it might be possible.  

HeavyG

Well...it wasn't just Cinema and Munchkin that ended up voting against the $15 minimum wage hike...

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/541860-the-eight-democrats-who-voted-no-on-15-minimum-wage

JohnInCarolina

HeavyG said:

Well...it wasn't just Cinema and Munchkin that ended up voting against the $15 minimum wage hike...

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/541860-the-eight-democrats-who-voted-no-on-15-minimum-wage

This was a cloture vote.  Not exactly the same thing when you know it has no chance of passing anyway.

fishlessman