OT subject but worth a main-stream read- OT News Feeds...

lousubcap

From The BBC:
Border crossings, egg prices and jobs - Trump's 100 days speech fact-checked
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lousubcap

How's your acceptance of the financial level of pain?

The US famously bounced back from a pandemic recession that struck like a hammer blow in 2020. Fueled by a massive government rescue effort that pumped tremendous amounts of money into the economy, the nation was soon outpacing rivals in a return to growth. The country that saw more than a million people killed by Covid-19 not only avoided a depression, but eventually reached a level of employment so high it matched a half century-old record from when Richard Nixon was president. But that was then. For Donald Trump, it’s not Nixon but Gerald Ford that comes to mind this week. The president closes out his first 100 days in office able to claim almost-singlehanded responsibility for sending the S&P 500 Index down about 8%. It’s the worst first 100 days for markets since 1974, when Ford took over for his disgraced predecessor. And it gets worse. Unlike the churning US economy of the last half of the Biden administration, Trump now presides over the first US economic contraction since 2022. Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product decreased an annualized 0.3% in the first quarter, well below average growth of about 3% in the prior two years. The uncertainty over Trump’s chaotic tariff strategy, his radical push to deport undocumented workers, legal immigrants and foreign students, his mass firings of federal employees and a sometimes overt disdain for the US Constitution have all unnerved investors who a few short months ago were singing his praises. It’s all combined to send the S&P 500 diving into its seventh-fastest correction since 1929. There was however some good news for Trump in today’s hard data, with consumer spending advancing more than economists had predicted. But that comes amid a parade of consumer sentiment surveys—including one yesterday—showing optimism nowhere to be found. Low-income Americans are already facing the hardship of high prices while wealthier individuals have been set back by this year’s drop in stock prices. And a closely watched measure of underlying inflation accelerated to a 3.5% pace in the first quarter—the most in a year. —David E. Rovella

Botch

Thanks. I had saved a truncated version of that graph to post here but it didn’t go past ‘23; that one shows a lot more historical info.  PBS Newshour discussed tonight that a big part of that drop in GDP was caused by companies stocking up on imported goods (total GDP is everything produced in the US, minus imports) but that last drop is data from the threat of tariffs, before the actual tariffs have been put into place; watch what happens Next quarter!  

lousubcap

Thursday Middle East update:

"Israel carried out airstrikes on Syria yesterday, warning it would target government forces there if clashes continued between pro-government fighters and Druse militia members. The Israeli military said its aircraft struck a group of “operatives” accused of attacking Druse civilians and fueling unrest near Damascus. A regional Syrian governor confirmed that the airstrike killed one member of Syria’s general security forces and a civilian. While the Israeli military did not specify the identities of the “operatives,” clashes had been ongoing for two days between forces aligned with the Islamist government and Druse militias. Israel itself is home to a significant Druse population. Euan Ward, Aaron Boxerman, Hwaida Saad, and Vivian Yee report for the New York Times.

In the six weeks since Israel renewed its military campaign in Gaza, Israeli forces have significantly redrawn the territory’s map — labeling roughly 70% of the enclave as either a military “red zone” or an evacuation area, according to the U.N. — displacing hundreds of thousands of Palestinians into increasingly confined areas. Miriam Berger and Júlia Ledur report for the Washington Post. "

lousubcap

US, Russia-Ukraine update:

"The United States and Ukraine yesterday signed an agreement granting U.S. access to Ukraine’s valuable mineral resources, a deal that could help sustain U.S. military aid to Kyiv amid concerns that Trump may reduce support during ongoing peace talks with Russia. Few specifics were provided about the agreement, known as the ‘United States-Ukraine Reinvestment Fund,’ while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, “President Trump saw this partnership as a reflection of both nations’ dedication to long-term peace and prosperity in Ukraine.” Samya Kullab, Hanna Arhirova, and Aamer Madhani report for the Associated Press.

Russian air defence units destroyed 34 Ukrainian drones overnight, Russian news agencies reported, citing the country’s Ministry of Defence.

The Kremlin, meanwhile, said Putin is open to peace in Ukraine and that intense work is going on with the US, but the conflict is so complicated that the rapid progress that Washington wants is difficult to achieve.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov also said Putin had expressed a willingness for direct talks with Ukraine, but that there had been no answer yet from Kyiv.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha responded by saying Ukraine was ready for peace talks in any format if Moscow signed up to an unconditional ceasefire. Putin has previously welcomed the idea in principle, but said that many issues need to be worked out in practice before such a ceasefire can be agreed."

Edit from the BBC-

Seven takeaways from US-Ukraine resources deal

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5yg456mzn8o?at_campaign_type=owned&at_medium=emails&at_objective=awareness&at_ptr_type=email&at_ptr_name=salesforce&at_campaign=newsbriefing&at_email_send_date=20250501&at_send_id=4348558&at_link_title=https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5yg456mzn8o&at_bbc_team=crm

lousubcap

More on the US-Ukraine mineral deal:

"Ukraine

Minerals, resource-extraction deal finally moves forward: After weeks of at-times dramatic negotiations, White House and Ukrainian treasury officials signed an agreement to create a “Reconstruction Investment Fund” to finance “mineral extraction and oil and gas projects, as well as related infrastructure” inside Ukraine, officials in Kyiv announced Wednesday. Signatories included First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy Yuliia Svyrydenko as well as U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.  Context: Before Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine was a top-10 global producer of titanium, zirconium, graphite, and manganese. It also holds Europe’s largest deposits of uranium.   Key points, according to Ukrainian presidential advisor Anton Gerashchenko: The Reconstruction Investment Fund “is created on a 50/50 basis…Ukraine contributes 50% of the state budget revenues from new rent on new licenses for new fields.” “The United States contributes” via “direct funds,” but the U.S. “can also contribute new assistance, such as air defense systems for Ukraine.”  The idea: The Fund “invests in mineral extraction and oil and gas projects, as well as related infrastructure or processing,” all of which must remain “exclusively in Ukraine,” Gerashchenko wrote on social media. “Ukraine and the United States will jointly determine the specific investment projects to which the funds will be allocated,” he said.   Notable: First for the first 10 years, “the Fund's profits and revenues will not be distributed, but can only be invested in Ukraine—in new projects or reconstruction,” Gerashchenko said.   Caveat: “Ukraine retains exclusive ownership of all subsoil, territorial waters, and natural resources,” said Gerashchenko. And “Only Ukraine determines the conditions and locations for resource development,” he added.   Also notable: “The Agreement does not mention any debt obligations of Ukraine to the United States,” Gerashchenko pointed out.   Expert reax: “The deal offers no explicit defense guarantees,” observed Nataliia Shapoval of the Kyiv School of Economics. “Economically, this is a solid opportunity to pull in outside capital—potentially generating several billion in reinvestment every year,” she said. But “Politically, it’s a gamble: Zelensky’s administration is trusting that deeper economic ties might eventually yield better security commitments.”  In an optimistic read, Ukraine’s mineral “wealth and new industrial projects could anchor U.S. and Europe’s pivot to clean energy and advanced manufacturing,” Shapoval wrote. “Combined with a potential Ukraine–US future technologies and security focused fund to boost investment, the economic logic is compelling,” she noted.   On the other hand, “Security guarantees, however, remain the big ‘if,’ leaving us in Ukraine to hope its gamble pays off both financially and militarily,” she said. Read more, here. "

lousubcap

Friday Middle East update:

"A planned fourth round of Iran-U.S. negotiations on Tehran’s nuclear program has been delayed, with a new date being scheduled “depending on the U.S. approach,” an Iranian official told Reuters yesterday. “U.S. sanctions on Iran during the nuclear talks are not helping the sides to resolve the nuclear dispute through diplomacy,” the official added, referencing Trump’s recent threat of sanctions on countries purchasing oil from Iran. However, a U.S. State Department spokesperson said this weekend’s Rome meeting had never been officially scheduled and that Washington hadn’t confirmed participation. Kasra Naji and Maia Davies report for BBC News; Lauren Irwin reports.

Israeli fighter jets bombed an area close to the presidential palace in Damascus as a “clear message to the Syrian regime” that Israel would “not allow the deployment of forces south of Damascus or any threat to the Druze community,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said. The Syrian government has not commented on the attack at the time of writing, but said yesterday it rejected “foreign intervention” when Israel carried out strikes south of Damascus yesterday during clashes between Druze militia, security forces, and allied Sunni Islamist fighters. David Gritten reports for BBC News.

A Gaza-bound aid ship caught fire and issued an SOS after it reportedly came under a drone attack off the coast of Malta, in international waters, just after midnight local time Friday. The Freedom Flotilla Coalition, which is advocating to end Israel’s aid blockade into Gaza, told CNN that activists were onboard the ship carrying humanitarian aid when the alleged attack occurred. Israel has not commented on the alleged attack at the time of writing. Kathleen Magramo, Abeer Salman, Todd Symons, and Martin Goillandeau report."

lousubcap

Friday Russia-Ukraine update:

"New intelligence reviewed by U.S. and Western officials indicates that Putin may have shifted his near-term focus in the war in Ukraine to consolidating control over occupied territories and strengthening Russia’s weakened economy, sources told CNN. Alex Marquardt and Zachary Cohen report.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has described his country’s landmark mineral deal with the US as a “truly equal agreement that creates an opportunity for quite significant investment in Ukraine”.

The European Union is preparing new sanctions on Russia, according to French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot. This would be the 17th round of sanctions from the 27-member bloc.

 Senator Lindsey Graham has become one of the loudest Ukraine supporters in Washington, according to a Wall Street Journal exclusive report. Graham, a close Trump ally, is pushing for new sanctions on Russia and steep tariffs on countries that buy Russian energy and uranium.

 Vice President JD Vance told Fox News that the war in Ukraine is “not going anywhere” and it’s “not going to end any time soon” during an interview. It’s “going to be up to the Russians and Ukrainians now that each side knows what the other’s terms for peace are”, Vance said."

lousubcap

Saturday Russia-Ukraine update:

"Russia said its forces were continuing to create a “security strip” in border areas of Ukraine’s Sumy region after driving Ukrainian troops out of the Kursk region, just across the border in western Russia.

The Department of State has approved the potential sale of F-16 training and sustainment, along with related equipment, to Ukraine for $310m, according to the Pentagon. The sale could include aircraft modifications and upgrades, flight training and maintenance.

New economic sanctions are being readied against Russia to intensify pressure on Moscow to embrace US President Donald Trump’s efforts to end its war on Ukraine, three US officials said. The targets include the state-owned Russian energy giant Gazprom.

Ukrainian armed forces will take part in a British military procession on Monday celebrating the 80th anniversary of Victory in Europe (VE) Day, which marks the end of fighting on the continent during World War II.

Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have renewed calls on Russia and Ukraine to reach a peace deal, saying there was no clear end in sight to the conflict and warning that Trump needed a breakthrough “very soon”."

xavier233

Hard to overstate how much is riding on that mineral deal, for both Ukraine’s future and the White House’s narrative. The economics may add up, but the security side still feels like a huge gamble.

Gulfcoastguy

Well they did immediately agree to send Ukraine several decommissioned F 16’s to strip for spare parts. Someone should mention to Trump that the Russians are occupying the regions of Ukraine with the biggest deposits of rare earth minerals. I do know that if I were Ukraine I would never agree to Russian naval bases in Crimea or to that Russian bridge to Crimea not becoming a fishing reef.

lousubcap

Monday Middle East update:

"Israeli Cabinet ministers today approved a new plan to capture the entire Gaza Strip and remain in the territory for an unspecified amount of time, according to two Israeli officials. The plan would also seek to prevent Hamas from distributing humanitarian aid and entail powerful strikes against Hamas targets, the officials added. Tia Goldenberg and Sam Mednick report for AP News.

The effect of Israel’s blockade of humanitarian aid into Gaza has become “catastrophic,” doctors in the territory say, with food, water, and medicine shortages prompting a surge of preventable illnesses, deaths, and hunger. Separately, Hamas on Friday announced it has executed six Palestinians and shot 13 others in the legs for alleged looting in Gaza. Erika Solomon and Rawan Sheikh Ahmad report for the New York Times; Ibrahim Dahman, Eyad Kourdi, Abeer Salman, Oren Liebermann, and Tareq Al Hilou report for CNN.

The United States, Israel, and representatives of a new international foundation are close to reaching an agreement on how to resume the supply of aid to Gaza without it being controlled by Hamas, Israeli and U.S. sources say, with a formal announcement possible “in the coming days.” Under the agreement, a private U.S. company would be in charge of the logistical delivery and of providing security, a source added. Barak Ravid reports for Axios; Dana Karni, Jennifer Hansler, and Oren Liebermann report for CNN. 

Yemen’s Houthi rebels late yesterday announced they would impose a “comprehensive” aerial blockade on Israel by targeting its airports in response to Israel’s actions in Gaza and claimed responsibility for a missile strike that briefly shut down Tel Aviv’s main international airport yesterday. Responding to the incident, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed further attacks against the Houthis and Iran. Tamar Michaelis and Oren Liebermann report for CNN; Reuters reports. 

A U.S. airstrike on a Houthi-run compound used as a migrant detention center and potentially for military purposes appears to have killed at least 38 people and injured at least 32 last Monday, according to images of the aftermath reviewed by the Washington Post. The Post’s analysis notes its figure is “almost certainly” an undercount. Houthi rebels alleged that at least 68 people were killed in the attack. Alex Horton, Imogen Piper, Cate Brown, and Evan Hill report."

lousubcap

Monday Russia-Ukraine update:

"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy yesterday said that a ceasefire with Russia was possible “at any moment” and called for more pressure on Moscow to put such a measure in place. Earlier on the weekend, Zelenskyy stated Ukraine would not adhere to a three-day ceasefire proposed by Russia, saying that such a short truce would not help in negotiations and that Ukraine’s offer of a 30-day truce remains on the table. Reuters reports; Andrew E. Kramer reports for the New York Times.

Russian President Vladimir Putin yesterday said that Russia had sufficient strength and resources to take the war in Ukraine “to its logical conclusion” and achieve Moscow’s aims, but he hopes that nuclear weapons “would not be required.” Ukraine’s Ambassador to the U.S., Oksana Markarova, said that the remarks indicate Putin “is a threat” to “anyone who believes that nations should live peacefully.” Reuters reports; Lauren Irwin reports for the Hill.

Ukraine on Saturday claimed it had downed two Russian jet fighters using sea drones equipped with modified U.S.-made missiles, in what Kyiv said was the first such attack in the history of warfare. Russia’s military has not commented on the claim. Matthew Luxmoore reports for the Wall Street Journal.

The United States will refurbish a Patriot air-defense system that was based in Israel and send it to Ukraine, and Kyiv’s Western allies are discussing the logistics of Germany or Greece transferring another system, according to current and former U.S. officials. A former White House official said the Biden administration had secured the transfer deal with Israel last year. Kim Barker, Helene Cooper, Lara Jakes, and Eric Schmitt report for the New York Times."

lousubcap

Tuesday Middle East update:

"Israel is “on the eve of a forceful entry to Gaza,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared yesterday after Israel’s security cabinet approved new plans for the expansion of Israel’s military campaign in the territory. Netanyahu’s opponents criticized the expanded military campaign, saying it would endanger the remaining hostages’ lives. Michael D. ShearAaron Boxerman, and Adam Rasgon report for the New York Times.

There is “no point” in further talks on a new Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal in light of Israel’s expanded offensive plans, a senior Hamas official told BBC News today. The official’s comments seemed to counter the sentiments expressed by an Israeli official yesterday, who said that there was a “window of opportunity” for a hostage deal during President Trump’s visit to the region next week. David Gritten reports; Reuters reports.

The United States will “help the people of Gaza get some food,” Trump said during a White House news conference yesterday. Trump blamed the conditions in Gaza on Hamas, claiming that “[Hamas] are taking everything that’s brought in.” Amanda Friedman reports for POLITICO.

Israel yesterday bombarded western Yemen’s port city of Hudayah after the Houthi rebels fired a ballistic missile that landed near Tel Aviv’s main airport over the weekend. According to the Houthi-run health ministry, the strikes killed at least one person and injured more than 30. Aaron Boxerman and Shuaib Almosawa report for the New York Times."

lousubcap

Tuesday Russia-Ukraine update:

"All four of Moscow’s major airports closed for several hours due to an overnight Ukrainian drone attack, Moscow’s mayor said today. According to the mayor, there were no immediate reports of casualties. Separately, the mayor of Ukraine’s Kharkiv said that Russia had also carried out drone strikes in the city and in the Kyiv area overnight. Victoria Bourne and Hafsa Khalil report for BBC News.

Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said at least 19 Ukrainian drones were destroyed as the capital was targeted for a second night in a row, prompting the closure of all airports for several hours. There were no reports of casualties.

Russian forces also destroyed at least 18 drones in the southwestern Voronezh region and 10 drones over the southern Pena region, regional authorities said."

lousubcap

Wednesday Middle East update:

"Fifty five international organizations operating in Israel and the occupied Palestinian territory yesterday signed a letter protesting against Israel’s new registration system for international NGOs, accusing the rules of appearing “designed to assert control over independent humanitarian, development and peacebuilding operations, silence advocacy” based on international law and “further entrench Israeli control” over Palestinian territories. Gerry Shih and Claire Parker report for the Washington Post.

The United States will shut down a direct line between the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem and Washington, effectively ending the special status of the Office of Palestinian Affairs at the embassy, sources say. A State Department spokesperson yesterday confirmed that State Secretary Marco Rubio had decided “to merge the responsibilities” of the Palestinian Affairs office “fully” into the embassy. Adam Rasgon, Natan Odenheimer, and Edward Wong report for the New York Times.

The former Biden administration’s 2024 attempt to construct an offshore pier and floating causeway for aid delivery in Gaza caused dozens of injuries to U.S. personnel and resulted in tens of millions of dollars in equipment damage, according to a newly-released Defense Department Inspector General report. Alex Horton reports for the Washington Post.

The United States has reached a truce with the Houthi rebels and suspended its airstrikes against Houthi targets “effective immediately,” Trump said yesterday, stating that the militants “capitulated” and would no longer target ships navigating the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. Trump and Oman, which said it helped mediate the truce, did not specify whether the agreement covers all vessels or U.S. vessels only. U.S. and Houthi officials both suggested the ceasefire does not extend to the Houthis’ attacks against Israel. Alexander Ward and Michael R. Gordon report for the Wall Street Journal; Barak Ravid reports for Axios.

The Israeli military has “fully disabled” Yemen’s main airport in its Houthi-controlled Sanaa capital after targeting it with strikes yesterday, the IDF said. BBC News reports.

Trump plans to announce that the United States will now refer to the Persian Gulf as the Arabian Gulf or the Gulf of Arabia during his trip to Saudi Arabia next week, U.S. officials say. Arab nations have previously pushed for a change to the body of water’s name, while Iran has emphasised its historic ties to the gulf. Matthew Lee reports for AP News."

lousubcap

Wednesday Russia-Ukraine update:

"Waves of Ukrainian drones have hit Moscow in recent days as the Russian capital prepares for the country’s most important national holiday, Victory Day, this week.

Russia celebrates May 9 as Victory Day to mark the defeat of Nazi forces in World War II. The day involves a major military parade, with leaders of Russia’s allies often in attendance.

But this year, the run-up to the day has been clouded by a warning from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who has said Kyiv cannot guarantee the safety of the foreign leaders attending the parade in Moscow.

Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said on Tuesday that Russia’s air defence systems shot down 19 drones flying towards Moscow from different directions. Drones were shot down for the second night in a row and Sobyanin wrote in a post on the Telegram messaging app that there were no reports of injuries or damage, but the city’s airports were closed out of safety concerns.

Russian officials also reported that 17 drones were intercepted over the Bryansk region and five more were intercepted over Kaluga.

Russian President Vladimir Putin last week called for a 72-hour ceasefire to mark the occasion from May 8 to May 10.

Zelenskyy has rebuffed the proposal. “This is more of a theatrical performance on his part. Because in two or three days, it is impossible to develop a plan for the next steps to end the war,” the Ukrainian president told a small group of journalists on May 2.

Ukraine, instead, wants a 30-day truce, eventually leading to a permanent ceasefire and ending the war that Russia imposed on its smaller neighbour with a full-scale invasion in February 2022.

“The Russians are asking for a ceasefire on May 9 and are themselves firing at Ukraine every day. This is cynicism of the highest order,” Zelenskyy wrote on Telegram on Sunday.

Marina Miron, a postdoctoral researcher at the defence studies department at King’s College London, said that the drone attacks allow Ukraine to show that it still has the will to fight. “In the grand scheme, it’s not going to make any major strategic changes.”"

forry77

Victory Day vibes in Moscow: parades, missiles, and drone dodging. Ukraine’s sending a clear message with those flyovers, “don’t get too comfy.” Putin wants a 3-day ceasefire for the optics, Zelenskyy’s like “try 30 and we’ll talk.” The irony? Russia’s calling for peace while still shelling daily. Classic.

lousubcap

Thursday Middle East update:

"The U.S.-based World Central Kitchen charity yesterday announced it has halted its work in Gaza as it no longer has the supplies to cook meals or bake bread in the territory. The charity added it would continue to support Palestinian families by distributing critically needed potable water, but that its food distribution can only resume when Israel lifts its aid blockade. Nidal Al-Mughrabi reports for Reuters.

The United States is pressing the U.N., aid organizations, and U.S. allies to participate in Israel’s new plan for overhauling and controlling the distribution of aid supplies in Gaza, with U.S. Special Envoy for the Middle East Steve Witkoff briefing the U.N. Security Council on the plan yesterday, aid officials say. The U.N. and other organizations previously refused to participate in the plan, which they described as against “fundamental humanitarian principles.” Karen DeYoung and Claire Parker report for the Washington Post; Barak Ravid reports for Axios.

The United States and Israel have held preliminary discussions on the formation of a possible U.S.-led administration in Gaza, lasting until the territory is demilitarized and a viable Palestinian administration has emerged, sources say. Alexander Cornwell reports for Reuters.

The Syrian government is holding indirect talks with Israel to “calm and contain” Israel’s attacks on Syria and for Israel to retreat to the boundary demarcated by a U.N.-brokered 1974 disengagement agreement, Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa said yesterday. Abbas Al Lawati and Becky Anderson report for CNN.

The United Arab Emirates today denied it is mediating “secret talks” between Israel and Syria following reports that it had set up a backchannel for talks between the two states with no official relations. Abbas Al Lawati and Becky Anderson report for CNN; Timour Azhari and Suleiman Al-Khalidi report for Reuters."

lousubcap

Thursday Russia-Ukraine update:

"Russia has already broken its unilaterally-declared ceasefire that came into effect yesterday, Ukraine’s Air Force has claimed, saying that a Russian strike killed one person and wounded two others in northeastern Ukraine in the opening hours of the ceasefire. Ivana Kottasová reports for CNN; AP News reports. 

Moscow is “asking for too much” in concessions, and it is time for both sides of the conflict in Ukraine to come together in “direct negotiations,” Vice President JD Vance said yesterday. Kit Maher reports for CNN.

Russia is building a major factory expansion in remote Siberia to ramp up production of an explosive used in munitions in the war in Ukraine, according to a review of publicly available state documents and satellite imagery by Reuters. The new line could “significantly” boost Russia’s firepower, defense analysts say. Maria Tsvetkova, Polina Nikolskaya, Anton Zverev, and Ryan McNeill report.

Russian forces shot down 12 Ukrainian drones approaching Moscow, the capital’s mayor, Sergei Sobyanin, said on Wednesday. Russia’s aviation watchdog said two airports – the Zhukovsky airport in the Moscow region and the main airport in Kaluga – were temporarily closed.

Vice President JD Vance said during an appearance at the Munich Security Conference that Russia was “asking for too much” in its initial offer of a peace deal."

lousubcap

India-Pakistan clashes continue "In a new first, Pakistan and India exchanged drones attacks overnight, officials from the two countries said Thursday as the nuclear-armed militaries extended a cycle of attacks and counterattacks that erupted Wednesday in response to an apparent terrorism incident that killed 26 people at a resort in late April.   Pakistan also allegedly fired unspecified missiles toward at least 15 different targets inside northern and western India. “These were neutralised by the Integrated Counter UAS Grid and Air Defence systems,” India said in its statementThursday. Pakistani forces also attacked Indian positions “using mortars and heavy calibre artillery” at six locations across Jammu and Kashmir, India said.  India responded by attacking Pakistani air defense units “in the same domain [and] with [the] same intensity as Pakistan,” including an air defense system in Lahore, India’s Defense Ministry said. U.S. Embassy officials in Lahore advised personnel to shelter in place “Due to reports of drone explosions, downed drones, and possible airspace incursions in and near Lahore.”  Expert reax: “In terms of intensity and risks, I think it is fair to now describe this as the most dangerous crisis between the two since 1999,” Ankit Panda of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace wrote Thursday. “In 2019, by comparison, an off-ramp (a captured [Indian Air Force] pilot) presented itself to both sides unexpectedly,” he said. Nothing similar has been observed so far in these latest rounds of fighting.   The nuclear consideration: “Escalation dominance by the conventionally superior state against its insecure, weaker adversary that relies on a low threshold for nuclear use is a dangerous game,” Panda noted. “Incentives for Pakistan to introduce nuclear signals to the mix will grow,” he predicted.  A response from Pakistan is expected soon, a senior official told the GuardianThursday, without elaborating. Read more from Reuters and the Associated Press. "

lousubcap

Worth a read this Friday eve:

David A. Graham STAFF WRITER For The Atlantci-

Interest in the judges ruling on Trump-administration cases is understandable, but it shifts focus away from their legal findings—and serves Trump’s interests. One indicator about the health of the nation is how many lower federal judges a regular news consumer can name—and reel off biographical details about—without much hesitation.

By now, many know James Boasberg, who is handling the matter of deportation flights to El Salvador. He is merely the highest-profile in a crew of newly famous judges: Paula Xinis is overseeing Kilmar Abrego Garcia’s case. Fernando Rodriguez Jr. rejected the Trump administration’s use of the Alien Enemies Act. J. Harvie Wilkinson scorched the White House over due process. Beryl Howell threw out Donald Trump’s executive order targeting a liberal law firm. Tanya Chutkan was set to preside over Trump’s trial on charges of 2020 election subversion, though the case was dismissed first.

“At any given time in our history, the public writ large doesn’t know of a single lower-federal-court judge,” the legal scholar and retired federal judge Michael Luttig told me. (Luttig has also contributed to The Atlantic.) “Fast-forward to today: Judge Boasberg is a federal district-court judge, and Donald Trump puts him on a marquee in front of the world and trashes him.”

Luttig might be exaggerating the public’s ignorance of federal judges slightly, but these jurists have suddenly become major figures in the news, many of them for nothing more than doing their job: hearing cases, trying to earnestly interpret the law, and then issuing an opinion. The desire of many media organizations to illuminate their personalities, and the desire of audiences to learn about them, is understandable, especially as Trump’s attempts to test the rule of law have made the courts into more heated battlegrounds. Also understandable is the impulse among Trump critics to lift up as heroes judges who withstand pressure. Nor should any public official be beyond scrutiny.

But watching the focus shift from law, precedent, and evidence and onto the judges themselves has been unnerving. The problem is not merely the celebrification of politics that has in recent years afflicted the executive and legislative branches, and to some extent the U.S. Supreme Court as well. In the context of the judiciary, the danger is especially acute. John Adams wrote in 1776 that “the very definition of a Republic, is ‘an Empire of Laws, and not of Men.’” Focusing on the judges as personalities is a step away from a government of laws and toward one of men and women.

It also serves Trump’s purposes. He would much rather focus on attacking the judges and claiming that they hate him or are anti-American than on the fairly clear findings in case after case that his administration has overstepped its power and the bounds of the Constitution. Perhaps it’s no surprise that when Time asked Trump about that Adams quote recently, he was unfamiliar.

“The last thing that any federal judge wants to do, frankly with anyone, is seek out controversy,” Luttig told me. But “of course this is the way the president wants it. The last thing he wants to talk about is the law, and he wants to demonize the individual judges.”

By attacking nearly every judge who rules against his policies as biased—even those that come from judges he nominated to the bench—Trump delegitimizes the court system, allowing himself to overstep further next time and possibly laying the groundwork to disregard court rulings. The attacks also risk physical harm against judges, who have faced a growing number of threats in recent weeks. Trump may merely wish to bully judges, but his vilification of public figures has in the past resulted in some of his supporters taking up violence.

Judges are not, and should not be treated as, purely objective and rational beings who are above politics. Starting in the mid-20th century, conservatives began complaining about “activist judges” who they believed were driving a social agenda from the bench. More recently, liberals have embraced a similar critique. Leah Litman, a law professor at the University of Michigan, argues in her forthcoming book, Lawless, that the Supreme Court has abandoned legal interpretation for conservative grievance.

“It’s healthy and important for news coverage to capture the reality that judges are people too,” she told me. “Their legal rulings are going to be influenced by their life experience and their worldview and the political parties that appointed them, and to not acknowledge that in some way feels misleading.”

This means, for example, that noting who nominated a judge can be valuable—especially, as in the Rodriguez example, when a Trump-nominated jurist rules firmly against the president. It also means that when judges make repeated decisions that fly in the face of precedent—such as Aileen Cannon, the Trump-appointed judge who repeatedly ruled in his favor in the case over his hoarding of sensitive documents at Mar-a-Lago—they deserve scrutiny.

Another unfortunately prominent federal judge is Matthew Kacsmaryk, a Trump-appointed district-court judge in Texas. Conservative activists have homed in on Kacsmaryk, because he reliably rules in their favor and because, thanks to the oddities of judicial districts, they can consistently get their cases before him specifically and then persuade him to issue nationwide injunctions. In his most notable case, he attempted to block mifepristone, an abortion drug, in a long-shot challenge to its FDA approval. The substance of Kaczmaryk’s rulings deserves criticism—the Supreme Court had no patience for his mifepristone ruling—but even here, as Nicholas Bagley wrote in The Atlantic, the larger problem is the system that allows for such judge-shopping and national injunctions. (Now that judges are issuing nationwide injunctions against the Trump administration, some conservatives are starting to see the wisdom of this point.)

If the newfound prominence of these judges were a sign of improved civic engagement, perhaps that would be reason for applause. But this is unlikely, given continued public ignorance about the Supreme Court. A poll last year found that a majority of the public had never heard of or knew little about any of the justices besides Clarence Thomas and Brett Kavanaugh. Americans are hearing both too much about the courts, and far too little.

lousubcap

Friday Middle East update:

"Most of Gaza’s 170 community kitchens shut their doors yesterday, hours after the World Central Kitchen charity announced it had run out of supplies necessary to provide meals in the territory. The development closes off a lifeline used by hundreds of thousands of people to stave off growing hunger in the enclave. Nidal Al-Mughrabi and Mahmoud Issa report for Reuters.

Armed Israeli security forces yesterday forced the closure of three schools run by the U.N. aid agency for Palestinians (UNRWA) in the Israeli-occupied east Jerusalem, UNRWA’s Commissioner-General, Philippe Lazzarini, said. Israel accuses the agency of being infiltrated by Hamas, a claim that UNRWA denies. Yolande Knell reports for BBC News.

The solution to delivering aid to Gaza is “steps away”, and an announcement on the issue is coming shortly, a State Department spokesperson said yesterday. The U.N. and international aid organizations have previously expressed skepticism about the U.S.-Israeli plan for reestablishing the aid deliveries. Simon Lewis, Daphne Psaledakis, and David Brunnstrom report for Reuters.

Trump yesterday met Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, a close confidant of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, for a private meeting focused on the war in Gaza and U.S. nuclear talks with Iran, sources say. Barak Ravid reports for Axios.

Israel’s plans to evacuate Palestinians from Gaza would amount to illegal forceful displacement, undermine efforts to create a Palestinian state, and would lead to more violence, the foreign ministers of Norway and Iceland said yesterday. Gwladys Fouche reports for Reuters."

Edit to add:

The United States’ operation against Houthi rebels has cost more than $1 billion since March, according to two U.S. officials briefed on the strikes. Courtney Kube and Gordon Lubold report for NBC News.

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Friday INDIA-PAKISTAN CONFLICT

"India and Pakistan today accused each other of launching new military attacks using drones and artillery as the worst fighting between the neighbouring countries in nearly three decades dragged into its third day. India also accused Pakistan of attacking three of its military bases with drones and missiles yesterday. In Pakistani Kashmir, officials said shelling across the border killed five civilians and injured 29 others this morning. Aftab Ahmed and Charlotte Greenfield report for Reuters; Frances Mao reports for BBC News.

There is “high confidence” that a Chinese-made Pakistani fighter plane shot down at least two Indian military aircraft using air-to-air missiles on Wednesday, two U.S. officials said in the first Western confirmation of the incident. Delhi has not acknowledged the loss of any of its planes. Saeed Shah and Idrees Ali report for Reuters."

lousubcap

Friday Russia-Ukraine update:

"Russia has asked for territory it has not conquered during peace talks over its invasion of Ukraine, Vice President JD Vance said in an interview yesterday. Separately, Trump yesterday proposed a 30-day unconditional ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war and threatened sanctions if the pause in fighting is not respected. Gregory Svirnovskiy reports for POLITICO; Ali Bianco reports for POLITICO.

Pointing to allegations of continued attacks across the front line, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha yesterday labelled Russia’s unilateral three-day ceasefire as a “farce.” Sybiha accused Moscow of 734 violations since its truce came into effect overnight into Thursday. Jessica Rawnsley reports for BBC News.

Ukraine’s security service today said it had uncovered a spy network run by Hungary to obtain intelligence about Ukraine’s defences. The Hungarian foreign minister said he regards the announcement as “propaganda” that should be treated with caution. Christian Lowe and Gergely Szakacs report for Reuters.

Moscow believes the White House is beginning to understand Russia’s position on the war in Ukraine, according to a longtime Russian diplomat. Yuri Ushakov, the former ambassador to Washington, told Russian media that it was “clear… that there is an understanding of what we are trying to achieve as a result of this situation”."

lousubcap

Saturday Russia-Ukraine update:

"Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store said a group of 10 northern European nations in the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) coalition had agreed to support the 30-day ceasefire proposed by the US, noting that a “concerted approach” was now being taken.

Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, said he spoke by telephone on Friday with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other officials about the 30-day ceasefire proposal.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov reiterated Russia’s position on Friday that it supports the implementation of a 30-day ceasefire in the conflict, but only with due consideration of “nuances”.

Foreign ministers from almost 20 European nations met in Ukraine’s western city of Lviv, backing the establishment of a special tribunal to prosecute Putin and his officials for crimes of aggression.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov was quoted by Interfax as saying Russia and the US plan another round of talks aimed at getting their respective diplomatic missions fully operational.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said North Korea’s involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war was “just”, calling it an exercise of sovereign rights in defence of a “brother nation”, state media KCNA reported on Saturday."

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Monday INDIA-PAKISTAN CONFLICT

"The truce between India and Pakistan appeared to be largely holding yesterday on the first full day of the ceasefire after some initial skirmishing. Trump announced that the two sides had agreed to a “full and immediate” U.S.-mediated ceasefire on Saturday, with both India and Pakistan claiming victory in the four-day conflict. Anupreeta Das, Salman Masood, and Hari Kumar report for the New York Times; Barak Ravid reports for Axios.

India’s strikes on Pakistan-controlled Kashmir and Pakistan last week killed more than 100 militants, including prominent leaders, the head of India’s military operations claimed yesterday. Munir Ahmed, Aijaz Hussain, and Sheikh Saaliq report for AP News.

The United States’ involvement in mediating the India-Pakistan ceasefire was motivated by evidence that the Pakistani and Indian Air Forces had begun to engage in serious dogfights and strikes a short distance from the headquarters of Pakistan’s Strategic Plans Division, which oversees and protects the country’s nuclear arsenal, sources say. David E. Sanger, Julian E. Barnes, and Maggie Haberman report for the New York Times."

lousubcap

Monday Middle East update:

"Iran and the United States have agreed to further negotiations following the latest round of talks on Iran’s nuclear program, which Tehran described as “difficult but useful.” A Trump administration official described the talks as “encouraging.” No date has yet been agreed for the next round, Iran’s foreign ministry said. Leila Gharagozlou, Rosa Rahimi, and Betsy Klein report for CNN. 

The Iran-U.S. nuclear talks are “not genuine” from the U.S. side and were likely designed as a “trap to draw the situation towards tension,” an Iranian official has told CNN before the conclusion of the latest round of talks. A U.S. official said that Trump is “completely sincere” in his desire to reach a deal. Frederik Pleitgen reports.

Hamas yesterday said it would release Israeli-American hostage Edan Alexander, believed to be the last living captive holding U.S. citizenship, in a move intended as a goodwill gesture ahead of Trump’s arrival in the Middle East. Hamas is also in direct talks with U.S. officials on a ceasefire and entry of humanitarian aid to Gaza, a senior Palestinian official said. Rushdi Abualouf and Hugo Bachega report for BBC News; Reuters reports.

The U.S.-Israeli plan to funnel humanitarian aid into parts of Gaza will initially only feed about 60% of the enclave’s population, U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mick Huckabee said on Friday. Huckabee also underlined the role of the United States in the plan, stating that the proposal is Trump’s “initiative.” Jeremy Diamond, Alex Marquardt, and Oren Liebermann report for CNN; Karen DeYoung reports for the Washington Post.

Recent disagreements on Gaza and Iran strategies are straining the relationship between Trump and Netanyahu, according to U.S. and Middle Eastern officials, with Israel “worried” by the U.S. refusal to support military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities and attempts to reach a nuclear deal with Tehran. Carol E. Lee, Courtney Kube, Andrea Mitchell, and Dan De Luce report for NBC News."

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Monday Russia-Ukraine update:

"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy yesterday said he will be “personally” waiting for Russian President Vladimir Putin in Turkey on Thursday for direct talks on the Russia-Ukraine war. Western leaders involved in the “coalition of the willing” on Saturday urged Russia to agree to an unconditional 30-day ceasefire and told Trump that Ukraine is ready to start direct talks with Moscow if a ceasefire is agreed. Putin rejected the ceasefire proposal, but said he is ready to begin direct talks. Trump then called on Zelenskyy to accept Putin’s terms for direct talks without a ceasefire, which Zelenskyy seemingly acceded to by stating he would meet Putin in Istanbul. Henri Astier reports for BBC News; James Marson and Jane Lytvynenko report for the Wall Street Journal; Barak Ravid reports for Axios.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told his Russian and French counterparts that a “historic turning point” has been reached in efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war and Ankara was ready to host talks between the two warring parties, his office said.

Macron said Putin’s offer to start direct talks with Ukraine is “a first step but not enough”, arguing that an unconditional ceasefire that Kyiv and its allies have called for should happen first. Macron accused Putin of “looking for a way out, but he still wants to buy time”.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called Putin’s proposal for direct talks with Kyiv a “serious proposal” that is a step towards “lasting peace”."

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Tuesday Middle East update;

"One in five Gazans are facing starvation, with the territory’s entire population “facing high levels of acute food insecurity” projected to worsen in the coming months, according to a report released by the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification initiative yesterday. The report also estimates the Israeli authorities’ plan for delivering aid to Gaza is “highly insufficient to meet the population’s essential needs.” Abbie Cheeseman, Miriam Berger, and Claire Parker report for the Washington Post.

Hamas yesterday released Edan Alexander, the last living U.S. citizen held hostage in Gaza. According to U.S., Palestinian, and Israeli sources, the release was facilitated by backchannel talks in which a Hamas official approached a pro-Trump activist, Bishara Bahbah, who served as an intermediary between U.S. and Hamas officials. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Alexander’s release showed the benefits of placing Hamas under greater military pressure. Patrick Kingsley, Johnatan Reiss, and Adam Rasgon report for the New York Times; Barak Ravid reports for Axios.

The Palestinian Authority yesterday announced it would lift its ban on the Qatar-funded Al Jazeera news outlet in the occupied West Bank, after accusing the outlet of “inciting sedition” and “interfering in internal Palestinian affairs” earlier this year. The Authority’s Attorney General did not detail what, if anything, motivated the ban’s rescission. Fatima AbdulKarim and Ephrat Livni report for the New York Times."