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lousubcap · January 12

Monday Southern Command update:

“The U.S.A. and Venezuela are working well together,” Trump said on Friday, adding “because of this cooperation, I have canceled the previously expected second Wave of Attacks, which looks like it will not be needed.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Reuters that additional U.S. sanctions on Venezuela could be lifted as soon as this week to facilitate oil sales, and that he will meet with the heads of the IMF and World Bank to discuss their re-engagement with Venezuela. Gregory Svirnovskiy reports for POLITICO; David Lawder reports.

Venezuela is exploring restoring diplomatic ties and sending a delegation to Washington to check on its long-closed embassy, according to a statement from Venezuelan Interim President Delcy Rodríguez. A spokesperson for the U.S. State Department said that U.S. diplomats visited Caracas on Friday to assess the potential resumption of embassy operations. Annie Correal reports for the New York Times.

Trump on Friday signed an executive order aimed at blocking courts or creditors from impounding revenue tied to the sale of Venezuelan oil held in U.S. Treasury accounts, the White House said on Saturday. Several companies, such as ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips, have longstanding claims against the country. The order declares that the revenue is the sovereign property of Venezuela held in U.S. custody for governmental and diplomatic purposes and is not subject to private claims. Ernest Scheyder reports for Reuters.

Trump said yesterday that he is inclined to keep Exxonmobil out of Venezuela after its top executive was skeptical about oil investment efforts in the country. “If we look at the commercial constructs and framework in place today in Venezuela, today it’s uninvestable,” Exxonmobil CEO Darren Woods said. Seung Min Kim and Julia Nikhinson report for AP News."

lousubcap · January 12

Monday Middle East update:

"President Trump said on Saturday that his administration is ready to help the anti-government protestors in Iran, saying “Iran is looking for FREEDOM, perhaps like never before. The USA stands ready to help!!!”Trump also said several times over the weekend that he will use military force if the Iranian regime uses force against protestors. Barak Ravid reports for Axios.

Trump said yesterday that Iran proposed negotiations after his threat to strike the Islamic Republic over its crackdown targeting anti-government protestors in Iran, as the U.S.-based Human Rights Activist News Agency reports that the death toll has risen to at least 544 people. Trump added, “the meeting is being set up, but we may have to act because of what’s happening before the meeting.” Trump and his national security team have been weighing up a range of responses, including cyberattacks and direct strikes by the United States or Israel, according to two sources. U.S. officials said that they had to be careful to ensure that military strikes did not galvanize the Iranian public to support the government in Tehran or trigger retaliatory strikes. John Gambrell and Julia Nikhinson report for AP News; Tyler Pager, Eric Schmitt, and Edward Wong report for the New York Times.

“The communication channel between our Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi and the U.S. Special envoy [Steve Witkoff] is open and messages are exchanged whenever necessary,” a spokesperson for the Iranian foreign ministry said today, adding that “contradictory messages” from the United States showed a lack of seriousness."

Edit to add:

Hamas said yesterday that it will dissolve its existing government in Gaza once a Palestinian technocratic leadership committee takes over the territory, as per the U.S.-brokered peace plan, but the group gave no specifics on when the change will occur. An Egyptian official said that Hamas will meet with other Palestinian factions this week to finalise the technocratic committee’s formation. Samy Magdy reports for AP News.

lousubcap · January 12

Monday Russia-Ukraine update:

"The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said it was now up to Russia to show it is interested in peace, after Kyiv and its allies agreed to implement a 20-point peace plan and security guarantees, which would take effect following a ceasefire.

Von der Leyen said that, under the plan, Ukraine would rely first on its own armed forces, which she said were well-trained and battle-experienced. It would be the task of the Europeans to make sure the Ukrainian army is also well equipped, she said.

Von der Leyen added that the second line of defence would be the so-called Coalition of the Willing – 35 states, including most EU countries as well as Canada, the UK, Australia, New Zealand and Turkiye."

lousubcap · January 13

Tuesday Middle East update:

"President Trump is exploring options for diplomacy with Iran, even as he weighs whether to attack the country to respond to ongoing violence against the anti-government protestors, U.S. officials said yesterday. The Pentagon is presenting a wider range of strike options to Trump than previously reported, including targets such as Iran’s nuclear program and ballistic missile sites, an official said. However, narrower options such as a cyberattack or a strike against Iran’s domestic security apparatus remain more likely, adding that any attack is at least several days away. Trump is expected to discuss options in a meeting with his top national security team today. Edward Wong, Tyler Pager, and Eric Schmitt report for the New York Times; Barak Ravid reports for Axios.

Trump said yesterday that countries doing business with Iran could be subjected to a 25 per cent tariff on trade with the United States, effective immediately. According to Trade Data Monitor, China, Turkey, Pakistan, and India were among Iran’s largest trading partners. James Politi and Peter Wells report for the Financial Times."

lousubcap · January 13

Tuesday Russia-Ukraine update:

"Russia launched a second major drone and missile bombardment of Ukraine in four days, killing four people and injuring several others, officials said today. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on social media that Russia fired almost 300 drones, 18 ballistic missiles, and seven cruise missiles at eight regions overnight. U.S. deputy ambassador to the U.N., Tammy Bruce, yesterday accused Russia of a “dangerous and inexplicable escalation” of the war, pointing toward Russia’s launch of a nuclear-capable Oreshnik ballistic missile last week and the “staggering number of casualties.” Illia Novikov reports for AP News; Edith M. Lederer reports for AP News.

German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said he and his US counterpart Marco Rubio had agreed on the importance of a transatlantic alliance to secure a lasting peace in Ukraine.

Wadephul added that Germany and the US were committed to Article 5 of the NATO treaty, which commits member states to rise to each other’s defence, should one state come under attack.

The German foreign minister added that, at a time of “uncertainty and crises”, unity within NATO “is a clear signal to Russia that it should not try to threaten” the alliance."

lousubcap · January 13

Tuesday Southern Command update:

"The Pentagon used a secret aircraft painted to look like a civilian plane in its first attack on a boat that the Trump administration alleged was smuggling drugs, killing 11 people last September, according to officials. The U.S. military has since switched to using recognizably military aircraft for boat strikes, including M-9 drones. Charlie Savage, Eric Schmitt, John Ismay, Julian E. Barnes, Riley Mellen, and Christiaan Triebert report for the New York Times.

Trump will meet with Venezuelan opposition activist María Corina Machado at the White House on Thursday, according to administration officials. Vera Bergengruen and Kejal Vyas report for the Wall Street Journal.

Two China-flagged supertankers that were sailing to Venezuela to collect oil for debt repayment turned back toward Asia, LSEG shipping data showed yesterday. The very large crude carriers Xingye and Thousand Sunny, which have not been the subject of sanctions, had remained anchored in the Atlantic Ocean for weeks, waiting for directions amid the U.S. blockade and Venezuela’s political crisis. Marianna Parrago reports for Reuters. "

lousubcap · January 14

Wednesday Middle East update:

"White House envoy Steve Witkoff secretly met over the weekend with Iran’s exiled former crown prince, Reza Pahlavi, to discuss the protests in Iran, Axios reported. Axios also reported that the White House national security team met yesterday morning to weigh response options—without President Trump attending—and that Israel shared an assessment with the U.S. estimating at least 5,000 protesters have been killed, according to a U.S. official. Barak Ravid reports.

Accounts emerging from Iran amid a near-total communications blackout describe a “shoot to kill” crackdown on protests, the New York Timesreported. Witnesses and hospital workers described security forces opening fire, sometimes “indiscriminately,” with “snipers” positioned on rooftops, an emergency room treating “19 gunshot patients in a single hour,” and a “mass-casualty situation.” Despite the blockade, videos and broadcasts referenced “rows and rows of body bags,” and one protester told the Times: “The regime is on a killing spree.” Erika Solomon, Farnaz Fassihi, Sanam Mahoozi, and Sanjana Varghese report.

Trump escalated his public calls for unrest in Iran yesterday, urging protesters to “KEEP PROTESTING,” “TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!!,” and promising “HELP IS ON ITS WAY.” In his Truth Social post, Trump also said he has “cancelled all meetings with Iranian Officials” until the regime’s crackdown stops, and told demonstrators to “Save the names of the killers and abusers,” warning they “will pay a big price.” Elwely Elwelly and Bo Erickson report for Reuters.

Trump said he was consulting with his national security team on next steps as he sought confirmed figures on how many Iranians have been killed or arrested, and urged Tehran to show protesters humanity. He said the killing appeared “significant” and that the U.S. would “act accordingly,” adding that Iran’s government was “badly misbehaving.” Trump said he had yet to receive a confirmed death toll, noting he had heard “five different sets of numbers.” Aamer Madhani reports for the Associated Press."

Edit to add:

The Trump administration will announce today it is moving to “Phase 2” of its Gaza plan and will name a temporary Palestinian committee to run day-to-day governance of the enclave, U.S. officials said. The U.S. is expected to identify 15 Palestinian technocrats for a National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG) to manage basic services, while appointing former U.N. envoy Nickolay Mladenov as “high representative” to oversee implementation through a Trump-chaired “Board of Peace,” whose membership has not yet been disclosed. Some regional officials remain skeptical because Hamas has not explained whether or how it will disarm under the ceasefire terms. Robbie Gramer, Alexander Ward, and Anat Peled report for the Wall Street Journal. "

lousubcap · January 14

Wednesday Russia-Ukraine update:

"The Ministry of Defence in Moscow said Russian forces had launched a “massive strike against energy facilities used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces”, according to Russia’s TASS news agency.

The ministry also reported that Russian forces shot down 207 Ukrainian drones and 11 guided missiles in a 24-hour period, according to TASS.

Drones struck two oil tankers in the Black Sea on Tuesday, including one chartered by US oil giant Chevron, the companies involved said, as they sailed towards a terminal on the Russian coast.

“All crew are safe, and the vessel remains stable. It is proceeding to a safe port, and we are coordinating with the ship operator and relevant authorities,” Chevron said of the damaged chartered tanker.

Reuters reported that both ships were en route to Russia’s Yuzhnaya Ozereyevka terminal, a loading point for about 80 percent of Kazakh oil destined for international markets, as well as some Russian crude oil, according to multiple unnamed sources."

lousubcap · January 14

Wednesday Southern Command update:

"A Justice Department Office of Legal Counsel (OLC) concluded that President Trump had constitutional authority to send U.S. military forces into Venezuela to help arrest President Nicolás Maduro without congressional authorization, revealed a 22-page memo penned by OLC head T. Elliot Gaiser, dated December 23, about 11 days before the operation, and provided to lawmakers yesterday. In its unclassified form, the memo describes the mission as “Maduro’s abduction” and argues the President may act unilaterally if the deployment serves the national interest and its expected nature, scale, and duration fall short of “constitutional war,” even though it involved “boots on the ground” and anticipated fighting. It also argues that even if the operation “violated international law,” that would not “vitiate” the President’s domestic authority under “longstanding precedent,” citing prior OLC views that a president can override the U.N. Charter as a matter of domestic law. To support the legality of U.S. forces assisting FBI arrests abroad, it points to precedents including operations linked to the 1998 Africa embassy bombings and the 2012 Benghazi attack, and it builds on a 1989 William Barr OLC opinion asserting “inherent constitutional authority” to seize suspects overseas, treating the only operative limits as domestic ones such as the Constitution and the War Powers Act. Charlie Savage reports for the New York Times; Natasha Bertrand and Zachary Cohen report for CNN. "

lousubcap · January 15

Thursday Middle East update:

"Days before protests erupted in Iran in late December, Israeli officials sent messages to Iran via a Russian intermediary saying Israel would not launch strikes if it was not attacked first, according to diplomats and regional officials cited by the Washington Post. Iran replied through the same channel that it would also refrain from a preemptive attack. The back-channel contacts reflected Israel’s desire to avoid being seen as escalating tensions while it prepared a major campaign against Hezbollah, while Iranian officials responded positively but remained wary of Israel’s intentions, the report said. Gerry Shih, Karen DeYoung, Suzan Haidamous, Catherine Belton, and Ari Flanzraich report.

Iran temporarily closed its airspace to most commercial flights for around five hours last night, extending the restriction beyond an initial two-hour window, according to flight tracking data and aviation advisories. The closure ran from about 5:15 p.m. ET to 10:30 p.m. ET, with only limited, approved international flights permitted. It was initially reported to last two hours, but was later extended without explanation. Flight trackers later indicated the closure had expired and that some flights—including domestic routes—were resuming, with aircraft again inbound to Tehran. David Shepardson reports for Reuters; Jon Gambrell reports for the Associated Press; Helen Regan reports for CNN.

President Trump said yesterday that “very important sources” had told him Iran has stopped killing protesters and called off planned executions, though he cautioned he could not confirm the claims. “We have been informed by very important sources on the other side, and they’ve said the killing has stopped and the executions won’t take place,” Trump told reporters at the Oval Office, adding, “We’ve been told on good authority, and I hope it’s true. Who knows, right?” Donald Judd reports for CNN; David Brennan, Morgan Winsor, and Meredith Deliso report for ABC News. "

lousubcap · January 15

Thursday Russia-Ukraine update:

President Trump said yesterday that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is the principal obstacle to ending the nearly four-year war between Ukraine and Russia, describing Russian President Vladimir Putin as “ready to make a deal,” Reuters reported in an exclusive Oval Office interview. Asked what was blocking an agreement, Trump replied: “Zelenskiy,” adding, “We have to get President Zelenskiy to go along with it.” Steve Holland reports for Reuters.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that a state of emergency was being declared for Ukraine’s energy sector, after repeated Russian attacks destroyed electricity and heat infrastructure."

lousubcap · January 16

Friday Southern Command update:

"María Corina Machado, Venezuela’s opposition leader, met with Trump at the White House on Thursday and gave him her Nobel Peace Prize, which she won last year. After a large-scale U.S. military operation removed Venezuela’s longtime leader Nicolás Maduro from power earlier this month, Trump declined to replace him with Machado. Instead, he elevated other members of the Maduro regime into leadership positions. “It is unclear what Ms. Machado gained out of her meeting with Mr. Trump,” Max Bearak and Henrik Pryser Libell report for the New York Times.

While Machado met with Trump, CIA Director John Ratcliffe was in Caracas meeting with Delcy Rodríguez, the interim president of Venezuela. A U.S. official told the New York Times Ratcliffe’s meeting with Rodríguez was at Trump’s direction and it was meant “to deliver the message that the United States looks forward to an improved working relationship.”

On Thursday, U.S. forces in the Caribbean seized a sixth sanctioned oil tanker that the Trump administration said has ties to Venezuela. The U.S. military said the ship was seized “without incident.” Konstantin Toropin and Michael Biesecker report for the AP.

The first U.S. sale of Venezuelan oil was to Vitol, “a company whose senior oil trader donated to Trump’s re-election campaign and attended a White House meeting with the president last week.” Malcolm Moore and Jamie Smyth report for the Financial Times."

lousubcap · January 16

Friday Middle East update:

"After encouraging Iranians to take to the streets and declaring “help is on its way” on Wednesday, Trump appears to have backed off the idea of striking Iran. On Thursday, he said “very important sources on the other side” had told him the killing inside the country had stopped, surprising some of his own officials. His statement prompted speculation that the president could be attempting misdirection, similar to the lead up to U.S. strikes against Iranian nuclear sites in June. Kevin Liptak, Zachary Cohen, Alayna Treene, Kristen Holmes report for CNN.

On Wednesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asked Trump to postpone any plans for an American military attack. Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman and Egypt also asked the administration to hold off on any U.S. military operation, saying it could cause wider regional conflict. Edward Wong, Tyler Pager, and Eric Schmitt report for the New York Times.

On Thursday, Iran reopened its airspace after Trump’s comments about the killing having stopped. However, European airlines are still choosing not to fly over the country. Reuters reports.

The director of Israel’s Mossad spy agency is in the United States to discuss the situation in Iran. David Barnea is expected to “meet in Miami with White House envoy Steve Witkoff, who is managing the direct channel of communication between the U.S. and Iran,” Barak Ravid reports for Axios. "

lousubcap · January 16

Friday Minneapolis update:

"On Thursday, President Donald Trump threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act and send active-duty troops into Minneapolis, MN, where widespread demonstrations continue against the aggressive tactics of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents. Gregory Svirnovskiy, Kyle Cheney, and Myah Ward report for POLITICO.

The Editorial Board of the Minnesota Star Tribune said the situation in Minneapolis feels like “a military occupation.” The city is “under siege,” the paper said, with “battalions of armed federal agents … moving through neighborhoods, transit hubs, malls and parking lots and staging near churches, mosques and schools. Strangers with guns have metastasized in spaces where daily life should be routine and safe.” The paper urged public protest and civil disobedience to remain peaceful, but wrote “The occupation of Minnesota by ICE cannot stand.”

Minneapolis police and fire departments released new records Thursday night about the killing of Renee Good including the location of gunshot wounds. The New York Times reports.

Some Minnesota school districts are offering students the option to do remote learning as fear spreads through the state’s immigrant communities. Sarah Mervosh reports for the New York Times.

Several Native Americans are being swept up by ICE in Minneapolis. “Tribal leaders and members who live in the greater Minneapolis area say Indigenous family members, friends and neighbors have been stopped, questioned, harassed and, in some cases, detained solely on the basis of their skin color or their names,” Mariana Alfaro reports for the Washington Post.

The ACLU of Minnesota is filing a class action lawsuit against the U.S. government for constitutional rights violations by federal agents. The violations include racially profiling residents, conducting illegal search and seizures, and making arrests without warrants. Stephen Swanson reports for CBS News."

lousubcap · January 16

And now Greenland:

"European troops arrived in Greenland on Thursday as Trump continued to threaten U.S. annexation of the Danish territory. “Small numbers of military personnel from France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Finland, Norway and Sweden were arriving in the Arctic island early Thursday,” Yuliya Talmazan reports for NBC News.

Two new polls show that most Americans oppose Trump’s threats to take over Greenland. “Eighty-six percent of voters nationwide questioned in a Quinnipiac University poll said they would oppose military action to take over Greenland.” And “three-quarters of Americans questioned in a CNN poll conducted at the same time said they opposed a U.S. takeover of Greenland.” Paul Steinhauser reports for FOX News.

A bipartisan group of lawmakers were set to introduce a resolution on Thursday that would repudiate Trump’s threats to seize Greenland. The effort was led by Sens. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) and Reps. Ro Khanna (D-CA) and Don Bacon (R-NE). Joe Gould reports for POLITICO. "

lousubcap · January 16

Friday Russia-Ukraine update:

"President Zelenskyy said in his nightly video address that “Ukraine has never been and will never be a stumbling block to peace”, appearing to refute comments made by United States President Donald Trump a day earlier.

“When Russian strikes are aimed at breaking our energy system and our people, it is Russia that must be put under pressure,” Zelenskyy added.

Trump told the Reuters news agency on Wednesday that he believed Russian President Vladimir Putin was “ready to make a deal. I think Ukraine is less ready to make a deal”.

International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief Kristalina Georgieva told the Reuters news agency during a visit to Kyiv that she expects to ask the fund’s executive board to approve a new $8.1bn lending programme for Ukraine within weeks.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said in a post on X that he had spoken to Zelenskyy “about the energy situation in Ukraine, with Russia’s attacks causing terrible human suffering, as well as on the ongoing efforts to bring an end to the war”.

“We’re committed to ensuring that Ukraine continues to get the crucial support needed to defend today and ultimately secure a lasting peace,” Rutte said.

French President Emmanuel Macron said that France is now providing two-thirds of intelligence information to Ukraine, largely replacing the US, which until last year had delivered the majority of those services."

lousubcap · January 16

A good read about the goings on in Minneapolis and the Insurrection Act:
From the January 16th "THE D BRIEF"-

Deportation nation

After threatening to invoke the Insurrection Act on Thursday, Trump’s “threat stands out against the law’s long history,” the AP reported in another historical explainer this week. Trump issued the threat in response to protests against increasingly aggressive immigration raids by ICE agents around Minneapolis.

If he follows through, “he’d be the only commander in chief to use the 19th-century law to send troops to quell protests that started because of federal officers the president already has sent to the area—one of whom shot and killed a U.S. citizen,” AP’s Bill Barrow writes.

Expert reax: Should he follow through, it “would be a flagrant and particularly dangerous abuse of the Act—one that would threaten the rule of law and public safety alike,” writes Elizabeth Goitein of the Brennan Center for Justice. “Presidents have thus used the law sparingly, only 30 times in US history. In virtually every case, either the governor requested assistance because local law enforcement was overwhelmed or the state was actively obstructing federal civil rights laws,” she explained in a social media thread.

One notable difference this time: “The chaos in Minneapolis is of the federal government’s own making,” Goitein says. “The violence and lawlessness is overwhelmingly coming from ICE. Agents have been filmed smashing windows, ramming vehicles, and forcibly entering homes without warrants.” She continues, “Minneapolis is not L.A. in 1992, where riots killed 63 people and caused $1 billion in damage. Nor is it Detroit in 1967, where the death toll was 43 and 400 buildings were destroyed. The unrest in Minneapolis could easily be handled by police under normal circumstances. Instead, it’s being handled—violently—by ICE.”

“The administration seems intent on escalation rather than deescalation,‘reminding’ ICE agents (falsely) that they have absolute immunity for the actions they take against Minnesotans who get in their way,” Goitein writes. “Sending troops to Minneapolis under current circumstances would, of course, inflame tensions and lead to more protests, which would presumably trigger further ICE aggression,” she worries.

“The military should never be used to enable violence and lawlessness by the federal government. That would be an abuse of the Insurrection Act, a threat to public safety, and an incredibly dangerous precedent.” She ends by asking rhetorically, “Congress… where are you???”

lousubcap · January 17

Saturday Russia-Ukraine update:

"Russia’s Defence Ministry acknowledged its forces attacked Ukrainian energy infrastructure and military facilities seven times over the past week, including one operation described as a major strike against its neighbour.

A Ukrainian delegation is en route to the United States for talks with Washington on security guarantees and a post-war recovery package, Zelenskyy said on Friday, expressing hope the documents could be signed on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos next week.

During the talks, ⁠Kyiv’s team also hopes to get clarity from the US on the Russian stance towards US-backed diplomatic efforts to end the nearly four-year war, Zelenskyy told a news conference in Kyiv alongside visiting Czech President Petr Pavel.

The European Commission is considering ways to allow Ukraine’s quick accession to the European Union as part of a peace deal with Russia, but without giving Kyiv full membership rights, which would only be “earned” after transition periods, EU officials told the Reuters news agency."

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