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All-Access Membership Not a member? Join now! Claim your All-Access member rewards Site features and comments Forgot your password? JOIN NOW | ACTIVATE Home News Sports Wreckem247 Life Opinion Obits Autos Homes Jobs Classifieds E-Edition Text Alerts Help Agriculture Comment Follow This Article Howell: Cotton ekes out small gains as new balance sheet updates eyed Posted: June 15, 2014 - 12:03am new balance Cotton futures eked out small gains last week as spreads dominated heavy volumes and traders digested updated USDA supply-demand estimates.
new balance running shoes July edged up 12 points for the week ended Thursday to close at 85.62 cents, while December gained 21 points to settle at 77.83 cents. Spread trading accounted for up to 72 percent of volumes as high as 56,925 lots, largest one-day turnover since Feb. 10.
new balance shoes July fell to a low of 84.07 cents on Tuesday and December to 76.50 cents on Wednesday, day of the supply-demand report. The July low was its second lowest — slightly above 83.86 on May 28 — since Jan. 15 and the December low was its lowest since Feb. 27.
new balance running shoes Positioning before and after the supply-demand report played a role in the week’s trading along with preparations for July options expirations June 13, and first notice day for July deliveries on June 24.
new balance running shoes The U.S. 2014-15 production forecast met expectations at 15 million bales, up 500,000 bales from a month ago. Exports remained — an increase had been expected — at 9.7 million bales and ending stocks rose by a larger-than-expected 400,000 bales to 4.3 million.
new balance outlet Beginning stocks for 2014-15 fell 100,000 bales to 2.7 million on a less-than-expected 100,000-bale increase to 10.5 million in 2013-14 exports. Domestic mill use for next season remained at 3.7 million bales.
Recent rains in the Southwest lowered prospective abandonment. U.S. abandonment is projected at 21 percent, down from 24 percent foreseen last month and below the preceding two years but above the long-run average because of current subsoil moisture deficits in the Southwest.
The forecast stocks-to-use ratio of 32 percent would be the highest in six years, up from 19 percent now estimated for 2013-14.
The marketing year average price received by producers is projected to range from 60 to 80 cents, down 3 cents on both ends of the range. At the midpoint of 70 cents, prices would be down 10 percent from 2013-14.
Globally, 2014-15 beginning stocks rose by 1.09 million bales to 99 million, which was responsible for a 1.05-million bale increase in ending stocks to a new record high of 102.71 million.
Production and consumption showed equivalent increases of 460,000 bales to 115.92 million and 112.29 million, respectively, while world trade fell 2 percent to 35.6 million bales.
For 2013-14, world ending stocks are forecast up 1.1 percent from a month ago, largely on a million-bale increase to 118.13 million in the crop, with India’s output up by that amount to 30.5 million bales.
China’s expected imports rose by 750,000 bales to 13.5 million for 2013-14 and fell 500,000 bales to 8 million for 2014-15. Ending stocks there are projected at 60.31 million bales this season and 60.76 million, or 59 percent, of the world carryout next season.
On the U.S. demand scene, weekly export sales slowed to 42,500 running bales for shipment this season. This brought 2013-14 commitments to 10.513 million, 103 percent of the new forecast.
Shipments of 189,700 bales boosted exports for the season to 9.215 million, 90 percent of the estimate. To achieve the forecast, weekly shipments need to average roughly 138,700 bales.
New-crop sales of 74,700 bales raised 2014-15 commitments to 2.242 million, 24 percent of the projection and up from forward bookings a year ago of 1.922 million bales.
Anticipating lower prices, Chinese mills are reported buying only enough cotton to cover their immediate needs, while also attempting to reduce yarn inventories, USDA analysts say.
Purchases from China’s state reserve have fallen in recent weeks amid market perceptions that government sale prices may be lowered, competition from foreign cotton and prospects for lower-priced new-crop supplies.
With little incentive to hold old-crop cotton in the face of significant new-crop discounts, merchants are selling foreign cotton aggressively, offering Chinese mills an attractive alternative to buying from the state reserve.
Looking to next season, China’s internal prices are likely to remain under pressure under the new policy, either until they reach a market-clearing level or the government intervenes, USDA analysts indicated.
On the U.S. crop scene, cotton in good to excellent condition totaled 50 percent as of June 8, up from 42 percent a year ago.
The report showed 37 percent fair, even with a year ago, and 13 percent poor to very poor, down from 21 percent last year. The ratings translated into a DTN cotton index of 166, up from 156 a year ago.
Eight percent was squaring, up from 6 percent a year ago but behind the five-year average of 10 percent. Planting at 89 percent complete was up from 87 percent a year ago but behind 91 percent on average.
U.S. upland growers had contracted about 6 percent of their expected acreage by June 1, down from 11 percent a year ago and the smallest since they’d booked only about 2 percent in 2009.
The estimates are based on informal surveys by USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service and the National Agricultural Statistics Service’s March prospective plantings report.
Contracting by regions included 12 percent in the Southeast, down from 29 percent a year ago; 5 percent in the Mid-South, down from 16 percent; 4 percent in the Southwest, up from 2 percent; and less than 0.5 percent in the West, down from 2 percent.
Meanwhile, trend-following funds sold 4,934 lots in futures-options combined during the week ended June 3, reducing their net longs by 30.8 percent to 24,030 lots.
This was their smallest net long position since Dec. 10, a week after they had reversed from net short to net long. Index funds sold 863 lots to cut their net longs to 62,787 lots, while traders with non-reportable positions bought a net 332 lots to up theirs to 2,293 lots.
Commercials bought 5,466 lots, adding 3,496 longs and covering 1,970 shorts to reduce their net shorts to 89,111 lots.
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